So Then, Bonds for the Long Run? … P/E Ratios at 200? Really? … Mark-to-Market Slip Slides Away… Housing Sales Improve?  Not Hardly

Perhaps the biggest reason the stock market is a leading indicator of where the economy is headed is what’s called the “wealth effect.”  It goes something like this… When our portfolios are headed higher, we usually go out and spend like the dickens.  After all, with nice fat investments we feel like we have a lot more money to spend.  And, as well all know, spending drives the economy.  Result:  Stock prices and the economy get a boost.

The investors that have been wiped out in this downturn are the ones that did not plan ahead, says Steve McDonald. Booms and busts are the nature of economic cycles. And investing only in stocks is financial suicide. Steve says to survive this crisis – and the inevitable ones that follow – investors need to diversify their portfolios and stick to tried and trusted models.

Last week, we looked at the problem looming in many established blue-chip companies that pay dividends now and may not later. They have heavy pension obligations bearing down on them.

These problems should be stated in financial reports. But sometimes they are hidden in plain sight.  A bit of dubious padding in pension plan earnings projections can neatly camouflage millions in shortfall.

By the way—even if you are not buying dozens of stocks for their dividends, this is something good to know. It will help you evaluate those slick plans that brokers, bankers and insurance salesmen hold out to you when you take out life insurance, buy an annuity, set up a 401(k) or do any long-term planning yourself.

Let’s start…

Chasing market moves is the worst way to invest, says Steve McDonald. And piling everything into one asset class will not work either. Over time, you will always make more money with a balanced portfolio. That means a suitable combination of stocks and bonds. Steve comes up with a simple formula to find a portfolio split that works specifically for you.