The positive link between gold and equities market has been on the rise, as the metal is used as a hedge against inflation and erosion of portfolio values.

“The markets today are focusing on China and the sharp break of the Shanghai equities index,” said Bill O’Neill, managing partner of New Jersey-based LOGIC Advisors.

“In recent weeks, we noted the weakness in the equities, of course, has had a positive relationship with commodities, and that continued to be a factor,” he said.

Global stocks fell on Monday, dragged by a six percent tumble in China, which sent nervous investors into the yen for safe haven. Wall Street was off about 1 percent in afternoon trade.

U.S. December gold futures settled down $5.30 at $953.50 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Spot gold was at $951.70 an ounce at 2:03 p.m. EDT (1803 GMT), against $954.45 an ounce late in New York on Friday.

Weakness in oil prices, which fell over $3 to under $70 per barrel, and a sharp rise of the yen against the dollar amid risk aversion, are both weighing on gold.

Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance, said price volatility had also been exacerbated by holiday-thinned trade, with the London market closed for the bank holiday.

Gold typically trades in a close negative relationship with the dollar, as it is often bought as an alternative investment. Like all dollar-priced assets, it also becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies as the U.S. unit softens.

Meanwhile, a report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades also struck a nerve among metals traders.

James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC in New York, said that the news “played an element” in weighing down on gold.

JEWELRY DEMAND IN FOCUS

The precious metal is taking little direction from underlying demand or supply issues over the seasonally quiet summer period, analysts said.

Frank Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Investors, said that while gold has historically risen in the month of September on the back of strong global jewelry demand, it could be challenging this year due to the economic slowdown and the high price of bullion.

Texas-based U.S. Global manages over $2 billion in fund assets.

Silver, meanwhile, turned higher due to strong demand from Asia, analysts said. Silver, which is a largely industrial metal, has recently outperformed gold on the back of better economic sentiment.

Holdings of the world’s largest silver-backed ETF, the iShares Silver Trust , also fell almost 82.6 tonnes, or 1 percent, last week. Spot silver was at $14.87 an ounce against $14.74.

Platinum prices were a touch softer, pressured by a decline in prices of industrial commodities such as oil. Platinum was at $1,236 an ounce against $1,244, while palladium was at $289 against its previous finish of $287.

Close Change Pct 2008 YTD

Chg Close Pct Chg US gold 953.50 -5.30 -0.6 884.30 7.8 US silver 14.923 0.108 0.7 11.295 32.1 US platinum1244.00 -1.90 -0.2 941.50 32.1 US palladium 293.50 1.15 0.4 188.70 55.5 Prices at 2:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT) Gold 951.30 -3.15 -0.3 878.200 8.3 Silver 14.88 0.14 0.9 11.30 31.7 Platinum 1235.50 -8.50 -0.7 924.50 33.6 Palladium 290.00 3.00 1.0 184.50 57.2

Aug 31 (Reuters)

Spot gold hit an intra-day high of $961.00 an ounce, its highest since June 11, and was bid at $959.10 an ounce at 1329 GMT, against $953.90 an ounce late in New York on Friday.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.70 to $959.40 an ounce.

“At the moment we’re seeing the dollar as the key factor to movements in the gold market,” said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst at Commerzbank.

“In the past few months (gold) has gone from being a safe haven to becoming a dollar play. The dollar right now is so weak because no one is looking for a safe haven — because corporate results are so good and stock markets are performing so well.”

Silver was at $14.40 an ounce against $13.89, earlier it touched a high of $14.47, the highest since mid-June.

“Silver tracks gold in both directions,” Weinberg said.

The dollar hit a 2009 low versus a basket of currencies, stung by buoyant risk demand. The dollar index <.DXY>, a gauge of the U.S. currency’s performance against six other major currencies, fell to its lowest since December.

Appetite for risk was boosted by rising stock markets. European shares hit a nine-month high, as financials advanced after earnings results from Europe’s biggest bank HSBC cheered investor sentiment.

Rising equity markets also boosted interest in oil, with prices hitting a one-month high. Stronger crude prices support interest in gold as a hedge against oil-led inflation.

SILVER INFLOWS

Silver took further support from fresh inflows into exchange-traded funds last week.

The largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, said its holdings rose to a record 8,828 tonnes on Friday, while Switzerland’s Zurich Cantonal Bank said its silver holdings rose 1.929 million ounces last week.

Investment demand for gold and jewellery buying remain lacklustre, however. Holdings of the largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust , fell nearly 50 tonnes in July.

ETFs issue securities backed by physical commodities, and constituted a big source of gold demand in the first quarter.

Jewellery demand was also weak as Indian consumption softened on the back of higher prices. “Traders are waiting for lower prices,” said one dealer.

Among other precious metals, platinum was at $1,218.50 an ounce against $1,207.50, while palladium was at $267.50 against $261.50. Platinum traders are awaiting U.S. car sales data due later in the day for direction.

Government measures to boost demand for new cars supported European car sales in July, data showed, with French sales rising 3.1 percent, helping to lift both platinum and palladium which are chiefly used in automobile production.

“We view the development in vehicle sales as a positive signal,” Standard Bank said in a note. “We view this as a bullish signal for platinum, palladium, aluminium demand.”

In Japan industry-wide auto sales fell 5.2 percent in July from a year earlier.

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters)

Companies posting solid results before the bell included AON Corp and industrial conglomerate Tyco International Ltd .

Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on GE to “buy,” saying comments made by the chairman of a key congressional committee suggests a decreased chance of a break up of the finance arm of the diversified industrial manufacturer.

U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank in an interview with Bloomberg late on Wednesday suggested there was broadening support for regulatory reform that would not mandate the separation of GE Capital, Goldman analysts said.

GE shares rose 5.5 percent to $12.94 before the bell.

“A lot of this is a follow up of the resilience we’ve seen in the market over a couple of weeks. The clear sentiment is to be buying on any dips,” said Matt McCall, president of Penn Financial Group in Ridgewood, New Jersey.

“We get buying into the close on a consistent basis. The trend right now is higher. We have earnings improving, and that’s giving people the reason buy.”

S&P 500 futures rose 6.6 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures climbed 53 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures were 8.5 points higher.

Investor sentiment was also buoyed by signs that the global recession is abating following upbeat economic reports from Europe.

European stocks were up more than 1 percent after data showed July euro zone economic sentiment rose to its highest level in eight months, while German unemployment unexpectedly fell for the first time in July.

International Paper Co posted a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit but said the worst of the economic downturn had passed, and it was seeing improvements in some markets. . IP shares rose 3.3 percent to $19 in premarket trading.

Motorola Inc shares rose 3.5 percent to $6.80 before the bell after the mobile phone maker swung to a quarterly profit.

Exxon Mobil Corp shares fell 1 percent after it reported second-quarter earnings.

The U.S. economic calendar includes the weekly report on initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT). A Reuters survey of economists forecast claims to have risen to 570,000 from 554,000 the previous week.

Also on the calendar is a record $28 billion 7-year note auction from the U.S. Treasury, which could make investors cautious on the heels of poor demand for two government auctions this week.

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters)

This champagne-cork-popping performance obscures a few trends that should be worrisome to the celebrants. First, the S&P 500 has gained no ground whatsoever since May 8, the first trading day after the Federal Reserve triumphantly announced the results of its banking sector “stress tests.” Second, the BKX Index of financial stocks has DROPPED more than 16% since May 8. (As we have noted in prior editions of the Rude Awakening, the finance sector has been leading the overall stock market – both to the upside and downside – for the better part of four years. So the sluggish recent performance of the BKX Index is probably not a “nothing.”) Lastly, most gauges of investor sentiment – like the VIX Index of option volatilities – are flashing readings of extreme investor optimism. Typically, as contrary indicators, such readings presage a market selloff.

But even if we were oblivious to all of these “inside baseball” stock market indicators, we would find plenty of reasons to worry about the near-term prospects of the US stock market.

Yesterday’s headlines, alone, offered ample evidence that something is rotten in the state of the U.S. economy:

For starters, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced a troubling jump in “prime mortgage” delinquencies during the first quarter. Secondly, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of home prices continued to slide, both year-over-year and month-over-month. (But the rate of decline is slowing which, we are told, means that the housing market is “bottoming.” Maybe yes, maybe no. We been hearing these pronouncements almost every month since the housing market peaked in 2006). Lastly, the Conference Board disclosed that consumer’s are feeling blue once again. Consumer sentiment dropped sharply from the prior month.

It’s true that much of the economic data flying across the newswires are less bad than before. But they are not good in any absolute sense of the word. Economic distress is still ascendant from coast to coast, with very few exceptions. The only other ascendant trend is self-delusion.

In yesterday’s edition of the Rude Awakening, we examined the adulation and success the “big men” in America are currently enjoying…and we postulated that the very existence of this adulation indicates that the crisis is far from over. But maybe this analysis of ours is too wacky and unscientific for most Rude readers. So let’s take a hard look at the hard lives America’s little men (and women) are enduring.

A “little man,” loosely defined, is any worker in the United States who does not appear among the “Friends” on former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s Facebook page. A secondary definition of “little man” would be any individual without Ben Bernanke’s cell phone number in his “Fave 5,” and/or any individual without a direct line of credit from the Federal Reserve.

“Everywhere one looks these days,” we observed in yesterday’s Rude Awakening, “the big men are looking pretty darn smart. Meanwhile, the little men are suffering like never before.”

In what Sarah Baxter of “The Sunday Times” of London calls a “Mancession,” American males are suffering a disproportionate share of financial distress. “The economic crisis is sweeping away men’s jobs at a faster rate than those of women in America,” Baxter relates, “heralding the onset of a so-called ‘mancession.’” The Wall Street Journal’s, Mark Penn, dubs the growing ranks of unemployed males, “GLBs” (Guys Left Behind), and suggests their sufferings bode ill for the future of the American economy.

Picking up on the observations of Baxter and Penn, the Financial Times remarks:

“Men have lost almost 80% of the 5.1 million jobs that have disappeared in the US since the recession started. This is a dramatic reversal of the trend over the past few years, when the rates of male and female unemployment barely differed.”

This curious statistic may contain valuable a macroeconomic insight. Specifically, men are losing jobs because America’s metal-bending industries are atrophying.

“Men have been disproportionately hurt,” the Financial Times explains, “because they dominate those industries that have been crushed: nine in every 10 construction workers are male, as are seven in every 10 manufacturing workers. These two sectors alone have lost almost 2.5 million jobs. Women, in contrast, tend to hold more cyclically stable jobs and make up 75% of the most insulated sectors of all: education and health care.”

“The widening gap between male and female joblessness means many US families are solely reliant on the income the woman brings in,” the Financial Times concludes. This widening gap also means that America’s economy is becoming dangerously reliant on service and finance industries, rather than manufacturing industries.

To be sure, a paycheck is a paycheck, no matter whether a “Ms.” or a “Mr.” is cashing it…and a pink slip is a pink slip, no matter which gender is receiving it. But that’s not the whole picture. If the service-sector “Ms.” is cashing her paycheck, while the manufacturing-sector “Mr.” is receiving his pink slip, trouble is not far behind.

This is not a male-female thing; it is a national prosperity thing. Large economies cannot live on service industries alone. And large economies do not “recover” while their manufacturing industries are contracting. So, no, the U.S. economy is NOT recovering, no matter how many folks wish it were so.

Even if we look at the recent economic data through gender-neutral spectacles, we see a picture of national distress, not national recovery. We see soaring long-term unemployment, coupled with a subsistence-level consumer spending.

America’s “headline” unemployment rate is 9.4%, which is pretty darn bad. But America’s actual unemployment rate is more like 16%, which is a horrific. The chart below tracks the combined percentages of American workers who are: 1) unemployed; 2) partially employed, but seeking full-time employment or; 3) so discouraged that they have stopped looking for work, even though they are unemployed.

The chart speaks for itself…If this is a “green shoot,” it must be a weed.

Source: Stocks Deliver Their Best Quarter in Over a Decade: So What Now?

And the green shoots brigade gained a firmer hold on investor sentiment. It has become okay to say that the global economy is out of the woods and that the rally in US stocks could be the beginning of a new bull.

Is this optimism justifiable? This is the question we’ll attempt to answer in today’s Notes.

“The whole credit collapse and the recession must have been a hoax,” writes our favorite underground analyst David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.

Rosie is talking about the latest Investors’ Intelligence survey. It shows bullish sentiment at 47.7% (versus 42.5% the week before) and bearish sentiment all the way down to 23.3% (from 25.3% the week before).

Meanwhile, net inflows into US equity funds have been positive now for 12 consecutive weeks, with a total of $2.83 in fresh capital pouring in the week before last. Another sign of exuberance, as Rosie points out, for contrarian investors.

Maybe the bulls haven’t been paying attention to the catastrophe in exports. This from Rosie’s Friday missive:

The latest data on China’s outbound shipments showed renewed hints of slowing. Same for Korea. German exports plunged 4.8% in April and are off 28.7% from a year ago. Canadian export volumes sank 5.1% in April — and this transcended the problems in the auto sector — on top of 2.3% slide in March, taking Canada into a deficit position of $178 million in what is a vivid sign of a hugely overvalued loonie. U.S. export volumes also dropped 4.3% in April after a 0.5% decline in March, taking the YoYo trend down to a new all-time low of -20.4% from -13.8% in March.

Maybe the bulls just don’t care. This has been our suspicion here at Notes since the current rally US stocks kicked off in March. Let us explain…

The credit crunch and the collapse of onetime Wall Street darling Lehman Brothers last September spooked investors bad. Fear spread over a 1930s style great deleveraging, and stocks plunged as a result.

But are we really experiencing a great deleveraging? The upsurge in US stocks signals that we’re not… as does the more recent rise in crude oil prices. A deleveraging is by nature deflationary. But the rise in base metals, stocks and oil reveal that traders and investors are counting on deflation’s nemesis – and the nemesis of earners and savers – inflation.

We’re learning the lessons of history not by studying it but by repeating it. Warns underground investor Bob Carver over at MarketClues.com:

When the Bankster Debt Bubble burst in 2007 and 2008, it was popular for most to think that a great period of de-leveraging had begun. This happened in the Thirties and led to the Great Depression. It wasn’t pretty, but debt was either written off or paid off. The country learned a big lesson about banksters and how their bad decisions blew up the economy. Once those who had learned those lessons were gone, we had to re-learn those lessons, not by studying history, but by repeating it.”

Or, have we learned the lessons? Today, we not only have not learned the lessons of the Bankster Bubble, we are repeating and expanding the bubble of debt. Instead of a Bankster Bubble, we have a Government Debt Bubble that subsumes the Bankster Bubble and expands it. There is no de-leveraging going on. We are simply blowing a bigger bubble, waiting for the day when our lenders cut off the flow of funds.

Total debt is still rising sharply, according to the Fed’s Flow of Funds Report. In 2008, Federal debt grew 24% and in the first quarter of 2009 grew by 22.6% at an annualized rate. Household and business debt was virtually unchanged, while state and local government debt is rising at a 4.9% annual rate in 2009. Don’t take our word for it. OptionARMaggedon did some charts which show that the debt bubble is still expanding. The last two years were simply a sneak preview of what’s coming when the, by then much larger, debt bubble blows up in the future. The longer this goes on, the worse it will be. The public is sitting idly by while this pile of explosives is being built higher and higher, just waiting for the day when someone with a match lights the fuse.

Put simply, the only way out of a debt induced depression is to pay down debt or write it off. Leveraging up only delays the inevitable.

Given this “leveraging up,” it should come as no surprise that oil prices have risen sharply recently. The black goo is now trading at over $70 a barrel, just off its nine-month high of $73.20. The rate of gain is astonishing: oil prices have risen 100% since their $38 low in January.

Underground investor David Fessler at Investment U recommends four ways to profit from oil’s price moves (three long and one short).

• 1. Certainly one of the big drillers like TransOcean  (NYSE: RIG) is a great long-term play on rising oil prices, as their shares closely mirror the rise and fall of the commodity itself. Shares of the drillers have been absolutely punished, and TransOcean is off nearly 50% from its 52-week high.
  2. The United States Oil Fund LP  (NYSE: USO) is an ETF designed to track West Texas Intermediate (light, sweet crude oil) prices. The fund invests in futures contracts for crude, heating oil, gasoline and other petroleum-based fuels.
  3. If you don’t mind some potential added volatility, PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN  (NYSE: DXO) is a long-leveraged Exchange Traded Note available to investors. It’s designed to track the performance of certain crude oil futures contracts, plus the returns from investing in three-month Treasuries.
  4. But if you’re a bit more active in your trading, or if you feel oil is ready for a pullback, you might consider a short approach. PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: DTO) is designed to do just the opposite of DXO if you feel that our current rally in oil prices is overdone. For the reasons above, I don’t believe that’s the direction we’re going, but I think DTO is one of the better ways to play a short approach to oil.

We challenge you to find the “green shoots” in this picture. It shows the severity of the financial crisis in terms of corporate profits.

As we’ve said before, you may be able to have a jobless recovery, but we seriously doubt you can have a profitless one. Unless the negative trend line of this chart changes direction, you can forget about a sustainable rebound in stocks.

What you’re looking at is by far the biggest decline in earnings on record (the data goes back to 1936). It shows that 12-month as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009). (Hat tip to The Big Picture.)

This decline will not be fixed by Team Obama “phony money” solution. At best, the complete abandonment of sound fiscal principles will put off the great credit unwinding. And there is evidence in current stock valuations that it is having an effect on investor sentiment. But as recent experience has taught us, credit expansion cannot go on forever. And a bubble in treasuries is no exception.

Here’s what RBS chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah has to say about phony money. (Apologies to the grammar police: Janjuah isn’t one for the finer points of syntax and spelling.)

As absurd as the shrill chorus that is busy spinning that fact that coz central banks are going print-tastic, this means stocks are going higher and higher. Have folks learnt NOTHING!! The events of the last few yrs highlight the difference between ILLUSORY wealth/growth and REAL wealth/growth. The illusion can win out for a while, but ultimately REALITY WILL BITE HARDER the longer the illusion persists. But somehow this shrill chorus is given air-time and column inches – I am stunned by this. Be Warned – reckless central bank printing has NEVER succeeded over any meaningful investment horizon as a means of delivering real grwth and real wealth gains, and it is NOT going to wrk now. In fact, if the REFLATION/NOMINAL GRWTH policy trick does get legs, it will be simply setting up the next even more nasty balance sheet recession, from which the road back to normality will be horrible and much worse than what we have now.

]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/obamas-phony-money-wont-fix-economy/16834/feed 0 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/earnings-season-how-to-prepare-for-price-swings-react-accordingly/15465 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/earnings-season-how-to-prepare-for-price-swings-react-accordingly/15465#comments Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:29:21 +0000 Martin Denholm http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15465 Tuesday afternoon’s closing bell on Wall Street didn’t just signal the end of the trading day. It also rang in the start of first-quarter earnings season.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) had the ominous and unenviable task of being the first of the Dow Industrials to step up to the plate. And like a tubby first baseman who’s spent the winter off-season shoveling down junk food, Alcoa swung and missed. Badly.

Already waddling around with debts of more than $10.5 billion, America’s largest aluminum producer reported further loss of half a billion dollars for the quarter (59 cents per share), as sales plunged by 41%. As a sign of how hard the recession has bitten the company, it compared to net income of $303 million…

This from the Smart Profits Report:

“It’s all the same… Only the names will change”
– Bon Jovi

Ah, “politics as usual” – I knew it wouldn’t take too long before this age-old scenario reared its ugly head once again.

Having swept into office on a tsunami-like wave of goodwill, President Obama saw it evaporate this week after the House of Representatives passed the $819 billion spending bill along traditional party lines.

Partisan politics as usual.

With a mandate from a highly expectant American public to back them, it was hoped that Obama and his Democrat-controlled Congress would enact some meaningful changes on Capitol Hill.

Alas, the bill appears filled with more pork than the dumplings at the House of Nanking.

The fact that House Republicans did not support the bill and that their counterparts in the Senate will likely do the same is bad for investors.

Wait a minute! You just said the bill is pork laden. How could opposing it be bad for investors? I’ll tell you why…

Washington Loves Whine With Its Cheese

Thanks to the large majority that the Democrats hold in Congress, the bill or one very similar is going to pass. No issues there.

But by having a divided Congress, Washington is basically telling the American people that, despite Obama’s warm, uplifting rhetoric, nothing has actually changed. The two political parties are still sniping away at each other with gusto, blaming each other for the nation’s problems – past, present and future.

But in order for the economy and the markets to stabilize and get healthy again, we need some darn consensus. You know, the idea that everyone is actually on the same page and are working to fix things.

I know… what a terribly old-fashioned, optimistic notion.

But make no mistake… this is critical to the fragile public psyche.

Confidence Breeds Cash

The market – and to some degree, the economy – is the product of emotion and sentiment. Yes, there are certainly structural issues and flaws that cannot be ignored, but the fact is that if people feel hopeful that change is coming and that progress is being made, they will start to open their wallets. And what will start with a trickle will eventually snowball and will get the economy moving again.

That obviously doesn’t hide the fact that we also need large fixes to the economy and financial system. But consumer and investor sentiment is an integral element.

So that said, I’ll hop down off the soapbox now and get to the meat of the situation – discussing some stocks that could be beneficiaries of the government’s largesse over the next few years…

*********

Forget Oil… This Is The World’s Most Critical Commodity

For all the talk about oil, there’s another critical commodity that the world simply can’t live without. In fact, it may be even more important than oil.

Water.

Under the government’s spending plan, water projects will receive $8.4 billion. I believe this is one industry that will receive a major boost from the increased infrastructure spending, with governments around the world expected to shell out hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years.

This is why recently added one of the financially stable, fast-growing companies in the industry to the Xcelerated Profits Report portfolio – one that enables water desalination plants to save significant amounts of money by capturing wasted energy and recycling it back into the system. Desalination will be a critical component if the world’s water needs are going to be met.

I can’t reveal the name of the stock to you here, but what you can do is check out how you can become a member yourself and start profiting from this and our other recommendations right away. We’ve got all the details here.

Here are some more potential winners…

These Two Sectors Are Set For Huge Cash Injections… And Here Are Two Firms That Could Benefit

Energy: Energy projects will receive nearly $40 billion worth of federal funds. A good chunk of this will go towards renewable energy – a big part of Obama’s energy plan.

FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) is the largest solar and wind energy provider in the U.S., and is the electric company for most of Florida.

It’s no secret that the real estate collapse has crippled south Florida’s economy. And Miami is the metropolitan area that will receive the most federal dollars for infrastructure projects. Any rebound in south Florida economic activity should bode well for FPL. The stock also currently boasts a 3.5% dividend yield.

Healthcare Information Technology: This sector will receive $17 billion. Even without the government cheese, I like this area, as it’s a necessary component for streamlining the healthcare system.

Consider a stock like Quality Systems (Nasdaq: QSII). Its earnings are projected to grow by 18% per year over the next five years, yet the stock is trading at 19 times forward earnings. QSII has plenty of cash, no debt, is cash flow positive and sports a 3% yield.

As we’ve said numerous times before here, there are quality companies that will not only survive, but thrive during the economic malaise. And although it may seem far off now, we will eventually return to an environment where many more companies have the opportunity to grow and reward their shareholders and employees.

In the meantime, our elected officials seem to be telling us (with half-hearted apologies to John Bon Jovi) that, “Bad medicine is what you need.”

Note to Washington: No, it isn’t.

Source: Three Sectors And Two Stocks That Could Benefit From “Hope And Change”

The dollar slipped to a two-week low against the euro while the yen fell broadly on Wednesday as a tentative agreement by U.S. lawmakers to rescue American automakers helped calm investor sentiment.

The White House and congressional Democrats reached a deal in principle on a $15 billion plan to bail out and restructure auto firms, with officials saying the House of Representatives could vote on it as early as Wednesday.

“The market is still feeding off hopes for mass fiscal stimulus in the U.S. once (President-elect Barack) Obama takes office,” said Stephen Malyon, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Specific to the auto bailout, “in so far as how it is boosting equities, that is important for the foreign exchange market.”

U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday, a sign of rising risk tolerance, due to bailout hopes. That led to an easing of the move to unwind carry trades, which use the yen — whose interest rate is near zero — to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets.

In early New York trade, the euro edged up 0.3 percent to $1.2948, having earlier hit a two-week high of $1.3004, according to Reuters data.

The dollar rose 0.7 percent to 92.78 yen , while the euro gained 1.1 percent to 120.28 yen. The yen was down 1.2 percent against the Canadian dollar , 0.7 percent against the Swiss franc and 1.1 percent against the pound , according to Reuters data.

Analysts said fears of Bank of Japan intervention to prevent too much yen strength also weighed on the currency after BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Wednesday he was watching forex moves carefully.

But few expected action any time soon.

“A comment from BoJ Governor Shirakawa that the Ministry of Finance has the option of intervening was a statement of fact to lawmakers rather than a hint that intervention is imminent,” said Brown Brothers Harriman in a note to clients.

Analysts said trading in recent days is less active than usual with little economic data to drive market moves and investors beginning to wind down for the year-end holidays.

“We’re seeing subdued days in foreign exchange markets,” said Scotia’s Malyon. “We are also in a week where there is not a lot of direction.”

US BAILOUT IN FOCUS

Analysts believe the falls in the yen are likely to be short-lived as global recession fears keep risk aversion high.

The prospect of interest rates in other developed countries falling towards the low rates in Japan will also keep the Japanese currency supported, they said.

Traders waited to see whether the House of Representatives would approve the automaker bailout, which includes conditions to provide low-interest loans to avert a threatened industry collapse if one of the three U.S. auto firms were to fail.

Some market participants are sceptical on whether such a plan, if passed, would actually save the struggling auto sector, while others argue that it would ultimately do little to cure the global recession.

“The market may yet reach a stage where interest in risk assets cannot be justified by the underlying conditions in the global economy,” analysts at UBS said in a research note.

Nick Olivari
NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters)

We knew it was going to happen. Heck, we had the canary in the coal mine, the volatility index, investor sentiment, and a host of other technical indicators all screaming it was time to get defensive. And the screams came just in time…

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the S&P 500 all lost about 3.5%. The semiconductor index was down about 5%. Retail and financial stocks fell more than 6%. Brokers lost 7%. And homebuilders gave up 10%.

The bad news, of course, is it’s going to get worse.

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Here’s another look at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 plotted against its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA)…

If the S&P 500 is trading above the line, then stocks are in a bull market. If stocks are trading below the line, then the bear is in charge.

Stocks entered a bear market back in December. The S&P 500 declined for five straight months, and then put on a blistering two-month rally.

Today, the S&P is back up near the line. If history is any sort of a roadmap, then investors are in for a very long summer.

Take a look at what happened in the last bear market. Stocks broke down, rallied back up, and challenged the line… then cascaded lower again.

Get ready for the cascade.

Of course, stocks don’t go straight down. After such a nasty beating last week, stocks should enjoy a brief bounce higher early this week. In fact, the odds look pretty good that we may see the S&P rally back up and test the EMA at about 1,407.

At that point, though, traders ought to look at exiting long positions and adding on a few short sales.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Source: Warning: Trouble Ahead