Kudos to my friend George Friedman and his crew at Stratfor. If you didn’t see the article in this week’s Barron’s about Stratfor’s analysis of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices, you missed a really good piece of work. You’ve probably heard Napoleon’s quote that “Amateurs discuss strategy, and professionals discuss logistics.” If you want a perfect example of how that quote plays out for the markets, take a look at Stratfor’s article below. It’s precisely the kind of sober, fundamental research that makes Stratfor my invaluable source for geopolitical intelligence.

In the energy market Tuesday, crude for July delivery eased a bit, closing at $128.84/barrel, down $3.34. July reformulated gasoline lost 2 cents, to $3.38/gallon.

A report in the right-wing Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post claims that President Bush intends to attack Iran in the upcoming months, before the end of his term.

The move would play further havoc with oil prices, and could send the price of oil spiraling to $200 and beyond.

Iran claims to have the world’s third largest reserves of oil at approximately 136 billion barrels as of 2007. The country ranks second if Canadian reserves of non-conventional oil are excluded.

Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald - one of the first global financial gurus to predict triple-digit oil prices - has boosted his target price for crude oil from $187 to $225.

The dollar is a bit softer this morning going into the Jobs Jamboree, and rightly so, given the forecast. However, the dollar is still swinging a mighty hammer and I’m a bit perplexed by this.

Foreign countries drop their U.S. dollar reserves. We depend on foreign investment in our currency to bolster its value or, at least, to slow down its fall. When that thinly held balance changes, our dollar loses its spending power.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said a few months ago that if the United States invades Iran, we could expect to see oil at $200 a barrel. With oil already approaching the $120 mark, we may get there even without invading Iran.

After years of denials $100-a-barrel oil has been recognized as a reality by Uncle Sam, reports The Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ reports that the “normally bearish” US Energy Information Administration forecasts that crude oil prices will remain above $100 this year.

Soaring demand in China, India, and Russia will continue to keep prices high. Lack of spare capacity worldwide will also continue to push up prices, according to the report.

In short, apparently these countries need the price of oil to stay high to pay for their welfare expenses…which means that they will necessarily be raising oil prices again pretty soon.