But given the economy’s strong performance following the financial meltdown that crushed economies the world over, it looks like Brazil’s time is now.

Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.8% year-over-year in the first quarter and 0.8% from the fourth quarter. That beat analysts’ expectations but wasn’t enough to keep the country from sliding into its first recession since 2003. However, the economy is already showing signs of recovery and many economists believe Brazil is already on the rebound and poised for a strong second half.

Brazil’s GDP likely grew 2.2% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, according to a report by Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC).

Nelson Barbosa, Brazil’s economic policies minister, optimistically told the Rio de Janeiro-based O Globo newspaper that Brazil’s economy will grow by 4-5% this year.

That kind of optimism in July helped Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa stock index book its best monthly gain since 1998.  The index jumped 2.3% to 55,997.81 – its highest level in 11 months. It’s up about 50% this year, outpacing even the red-hot MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index are up just 5.8% and 11% respectively.

Analysts that were skeptical of Brazil’s economic growth in the heady years leading up to the financial crisis pointed to the country’s supposed reliance on high commodities prices and exports.

No doubt, the country benefited a great deal from the commodities boom that drove up prices for Brazilian exports like iron ore, steel, and soybeans. But in eviscerating commodities prices and ravaging the market for exports, the financial crisis demonstrated that Brazil is more than a one-trick pony.

Sublime political stewardship leading up to and during the crisis kept Brazil’s economy well intact when global economy seemed to be falling apart. Stringent financial regulation shielded Brazil from the worst of the financial crisis, while government tax cuts and a growing middle class buoyed the country’s economy as exports dried up.

Back to the Future: Brazil’s Troubled Past Preserves its Present

Indeed, the very financial crises that had Brazilians believing their country would never find its place among the world’s elite economies endowed the nation’s policymakers with a streak of caution as they entered the 21st century.

“We are used to dealing with challenging environments, for our institutions and our regulations,” Alexandre Tombini, director for regulation at Brazil’s central bank, told the Financial Times. “Everything we have done since the mid-1990s has tended to take a more cautious approach.”

For instance, banks in Brazil are required to keep capital reserves that equate to at least 11% of their total assets. That’s high by most international standards, but many banks maintain capital ratios of 16% or more.

Banks are also required to keep 30% of all deposits at the central bank. That makes borrowing more expensive, but it also made it possible for Brazil’s central bank to dole out $51.4 billion (100 billion reals) overnight to ensure banks were adequately funded.

Brazil’s high interest rates are another reminder of the hyperinflation that overwhelmed the economy in the 1990s. But those rates also kept lenders from getting carried away, and now that the crisis has subsided, inflation has been crushed and rates are plunging.

Brazil’s official IPCA consumer price index advanced 0.24% in July after posting a 0.36% gain in June, according to the Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE). The rolling 12-month rate sank to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the 12 months through June.

Brazil’s central bank has lowered its primary interest rate, the Selic-base rate, six times this year, with the most recent a 0.5% cut after the bank’s July 21-22 meeting. The benchmark rate currently stands at a record low of 8.75%.

With inflation subdued, most analysts believe the rate will be kept at its historically low level until at least 2010.

“With inflation under control, I believe it will permit the Selic to be maintained at this low level until at least the middle of 2010.”Alex Agostini, chief economist at local ratings agency Austin, told The Wall Street Journal. “I don’t seen any inflationary pressures on the radar. The inflation scenario is so well behaved that it could give the central bank room to make another rate cut at the next meeting, even though the signals coming from the central bank have indicated there will be a pause.”

And while U.S. regulators are only now looking into the inconsistencies and manipulations wrought by irresponsible futures trading, Brazil has long held the reins tight on such activity. Short selling – selling shares you do not own – is allowed, but naked short selling – selling shares that you don’t have – is kept under wraps by fines for traders who can’t to deliver shares they have sold within three days.

Additionally, brokers in Brazil are obligated to provide information by every client. That means a Ponzi scheme like the one orchestrated by Bernie Madoff would never have worked in Brazil.

Retail Remains Resilient

Just as Brazil’s regulators have taken their cues from past mistakes, Brazil’s growing middle class – which now encompasses more than half the country’s population – has been hardened by tough times and proven resilient throughout the current crisis.

May retail sales advanced at an annual pace of 4% and June sales are expected to have increased by 6.5% year-over-year. Furthermore, an IBGE survey showed that nine out of 10 retail sectors showed month-on-month sales increases.

“Brazil has had so many crises over the years, people got used to them,” David Neeleman, the founder of JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU), who last December started a low-cost Brazilian airline called Azul told BusinessWeek. “I don’t think they’re at all fazed by this crisis-everyone seems to be focused on buying their first car, getting their first credit card.”

Credit card purchases have grown by 22% a year over the past decade, BusinessWeek reported.

However, Brazilian consumers also got a helping hand from the government, which cut income taxes and reduced levies on a wide range of durable goods.

In April, the government cut taxes on construction materials, cars, and household appliances. The end result was a 5.7% rise in spending on construction materials in May and an 8% surge in auto sales.  Rejuvenated auto sales hit a record-high 300,000 in June.

And increased sales led to increased production. Industrial output rose for the six straight month in June, climbing 0.2% on a monthly basis.

“Brazil has proved it can govern itself and keep the economy on track in very difficult times,” Riordan Roett, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, told BusinessWeek.

Buying Into Brazil

Brazil has also proven that it has a strong consumer base of its own ready and able to fuel economic growth, even as exports falter. In fact, exports account for a mere 12% of Brazil’s $1.5 trillion economy.

From 2001 to 2007, the poorest 10% of the population enjoyed a 49% increase in real income, Brazilian economist Marcelo Neri told the Miami Herald, describing what he called “Chinese-like growth.”

Roughly 27.8 million Brazilians – out of a population of nearly 200 million – joined the consumer economy from October 2003 to October 2008, according to Neri.

About  8 million jobs have been created in that time, while the minimum wage has increased 45%

That makes Brazil a very attractive destination for investment.

In an April Buy/Sell/Hold column, Money Morning contributing editor and emerging markets specialist, Horacio Marquez, recommended Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE ADR: PBR) for several reasons – the rising prices of oil in the next few years, the discoveries of large oil fields off Brazil’s shore, and increase local demand from the country’s growing population and income levels.

Another commodity play is Vale S.A. (NYSE ADR: VALE), the world’s largest iron ore exporter and a key supplier to China’s exuberant infrastructure expansion. Vale will benefit not only from increase in demand when global economies (and trade with them) recover, but also the rebound of commodity prices across the board.

Martin Hutchinson, another Money Morning contributor, recommends Companhia de Saneamento Basico, orSabesp (ADR: SBS), which operates the water-and-sewage system for Brazil’s Sao Paulo region. Sabesp currently has a P/E ratio of 6.92.

“Now that’s a growth business, and one that’s not dependent on commodity prices,” he said.

Finally, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE: EWZ) has been recommended by both Marquez and Hutchinson. The ETF aims to measure the performance of the Brazilian equity market. It has net assets of $8.58 billion, a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.75, and a dividend yield of 3.66%.

Source: With One of the Hottest Economies on the Planet Brazil is Finally Living Up to Its Promise

The summer sun is seducing stir-crazed American families tired of penny-pinching. Add to that a strong dollar and I predict that those who can will travel.

Now, as swine flu continues to make the news, it will perhaps prompt some to avoid cruise lines and foreign travel to “high-risk” destinations.

That leaves European and domestic travel and as airlines have taken a hit lately, I chose that industry to sort through for just the right bargain.

JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU), Deutsche Lufthansa AG (ADR) (OTC:DLAKY) and Air France – KLM (ADR) (OTC:AFLYY) look to be ready to bounce, but not as high as these two airline stocks…

Cleared for takeoff

On the domestic front, AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE:AAI) has felt the recession like other airlines. It announced earlier in the week that it anticipates a drop in second quarter revenue of perhaps as much as 7%.

And like its competitors, it will seek to mitigate the loss by cutting capacity around 8%.

But Airtran is small and consolidated. But the most compelling aspect of this stock is its fundamentals. Its got a forward P/E of 5.52 and a tiny PEG of .18.

The price and most importantly, the timing, are just right to invest in this company.

I recommend you buy shares of AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE:AAI) at or under $5.75 and hold on for 20% gains in the next 6 months.

My other pick is British Airways plc (ADR) (OTC:BAIRY). To cope with declining business, the company asked pilots to accept a pay cut in return for shares. The pilots agreed.

I think they were right to… The companies P/E of 4.02 is just where I like it to be, and the current share price is under half of its 52-week high.

British Airways is set for a rebound.

I recommend you pick up shares of British Airways plc (ADR) (OTC:BAIRY) under $23 and hold on for at least 20% gains in the next 6 months.

Source: The Best Way to Play a Strong U.S. Dollar

Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.

Economists hope for another positive showing for manufacturing from the ISM index, especially on the heels of last week’s strong durable goods data. Finally, Exxon-Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) headline this week’s installments in the ongoing earnings season as investors get a reprieve from the weak financial releases and see just how much record oil and gas prices have padded the pocketbooks of those energy-sector executives [Click here for additional insight on Chevron, in Money Morning’s new “Buy, Sell or Hold” feature.]

Market Matters

The Federal Communications Commission late Friday approved the $3.3 billion merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR), a move that means the still-nascent industry might actually be able to operate at a profit. [Please click here for a complete news story on this satellite radio merger posted elsewhere in this issue of Money Morning.]

With the immediate threat of a Freddie Mac (FRE)/Fannie Mae (FNM) failure looking less and less likely, investors were able to focus more on the heart of earnings season. Thus far, the results have been mixed (or confusing) at best. Of course, financials took top priority (again) as the nation’s largest bank by asset size, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), saw its profits decline by more than 40%, much to the delight – that’s right, delight – of investors who feared much worse. Wachovia Corp. (WB) followed up with a trifecta of bad news:

• A greater than expected loss.
• A dividend cut.
• And some employee pink slips.

And yet, its stock price was up for the week as investors began to believe the worst of the news may be behind us (a feeling that will only last until the next bit of bad news hits).

Outside of the financial world, investors had plenty of reasons to grin. Heavy equipment-maker Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP), communications staple AT&T Corp. (T) and the world’s biggest drugmaker Pfizer Inc. (PFE) each announced strong earnings. Even Internet retailer Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) shrugged off prospects for weak consumer activity and raised its year-end forecast. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) accomplished what none of its competitors could do by reporting its 69th consecutive profitable quarter, thanks to some “ingenious” hedging moves. On the downside, US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), UAL Corp. (UAUA), and JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) suffered along with the rest of their winged brethren; Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) showed that even discounters can struggle during dire times (apparently consumers can’t afford bulk purchases); and Ford Motor Co. (F) posted its worst quarter – ever. [Please click here for a “Buy, Sell or Hold” analysis of Ford shares elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) had trouble dealing with the higher gasoline costs, while Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) lowered its outlook for the year. Some reports required a tad bit more analysis. While Apple Inc. (AAPL) rejoiced over its “best June quarter for revenue and earnings” in its history, it disappointed investors with a weaker-than-expected end-of-year forecast.

Toymaker Hasbro Inc. (HAS) benefited from strong demand for “Iron Man” products, though management worried about the holidays as the company finds itself forced to pass along higher gas prices to consumers. Merger talks resurfaced (another sign of business optimism) as drugmaker Roche Holding Ltd. (OTC ADR: RHHBY) will acquire the remaining shares in Genentech Inc. (DNA) it doesn’t already own. Finally, Carl Icahn will have more say in the future of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) deals as he and his “cronies” will be given three seats on that “infamous” board.

Consumers got an even greater reprieve from recent energy woes as oil prices continued their decline, and crude even dropped below $123 for the first time in several weeks. Likewise, gas prices declined to just above $4 a gallon nationally (a drop of 10 cents per gallon) as the higher weekly inventory report revealed a continued slide in demand, and as service stations owners looked to regain those gas-guzzling customers.

While investors tried to make sense over the recent earnings reports, some took solace in the lower energy prices, and hope the “trend” continues as summer travel winds down and the holiday shopping season approaches.

A surprisingly weak housing report put a damper on the newfound optimism from the oil decline and prompted some late-week selling that moved the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index into the red for the week. Still, the general mood seems to be changing, as investors are more willing to dip their toes back into the equity pool – though let’s hope they do so without badly stubbing their toe in the process.

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Halliburton (HAL)… oil services
Patterson-UTI (PTEN)… oil services
Carbo Ceramics (CRR)… oil services
Atwood Oceanics (ATW)… oil services
Key Energy Services (KEG)… oil services
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)… oil services
Spectra Energy (SE)… gas pipelines
U.S. Steel (X)… you guessed it
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)… scrap steel
Fluor (FLR)… infrastructure
Quanta Services (PWR)… infrastructure
Crude oil, Natural gas, Gasoline, Corn, Soybeans, Cocoa

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

JetBlue (JBLU)… airline
US Airways (LCC)… airline
Continental Airline (CAL)… airline
MGM Mirage (MGM)… casinos
Boyd Gaming (BYD)… casinos
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)… casinos
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)… casinos
Monarch Casinos (MCRI)… casinos
Winnebago (WGO)… RVs
Thor Industries (THO)… RVs
Fleetwood Enterprises (FLE)… RVs
Goodyear Tire (GT)… tires
News Corp (NWS)… media
Hershey (HSY)… candy
Playboy (PLA)… eye candy
American Express (AXP)… credit cards
Capital One Financial (COF)… credit cards
International Gaming (IGT)… gambling machines
Circuit City (CC)… landfill stuffing continues to suffer
Veolia Environnement (VE)… world’s largest water stock
Honeywell (HON)… conglomerate
General Electric (GE)… conglomerate
United Technologies (UTX)… conglomerate
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR)… satellite radio
Legg Mason (LM)… asset management
Callaway Golf (ELY)… golf equipment
Whole Foods (WFMI)… expensive groceries
General Motors (GM)… read the letter from the Chairman
Lead, Nickel

Source: Brian Hunt’s Market Notes Monday, June 30, 2008

I managed to pack in four barbecues (or “cookouts” to put it in American lingo) over the weekend – all pretty close to home – so not too much damage done. And with soaring gasoline and food prices contributing to a projected 3.6% rise in consumer prices this year, it might be the best way to go.

Gas prices obviously remain front-and-center of the news, so let’s check in and see how it’s affecting consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, plus an industry that is arguably getting hammered even harder.

National Average Gas Price

Following a daily march higher over the past three weeks, the current national average gas price per gallon sits at an ugly $3.93. But with gas in 11 US states already over $4 a gallon, this number is now more for headlines than anything else. Bottom line: It’s expensive!

Little wonder that AAA projected a drop in Memorial Day travelers this year – the first decline since 2002. Many have also scaled back their plans, due to rising gas prices. And MasterCard reported a 7% drop in gas sales in the week leading up to the holiday.

But it wasn’t just Americans feeling the pressure at the pump this weekend…

Truck JamLike in the US, Monday was also a holiday in Britain, with the long weekend giving Brits a similar chance to hit the road for a short break.

Trouble is, UK gas prices are 17% higher than this time last year, with diesel prices almost 30% higher. The national average is currently $1.14 a liter and $1.26 a liter respectively. In US terms, that’s about $10.16 and $11.23 per gallon.

You can see why 16% of respondents to an Automobile Association survey said they plan to use their cars less.

What bothers many Brits, though, is that about 60% of fuel costs go into the government’s coffers in taxes. And today, the nation’s truckers took their protest to the streets.

In a mass demonstration against high prices and the government’s planned 2 pence per liter fuel tax rise (set to come into effect in October, having been postponed from April), hundreds of truckers set off from various parts around the UK and conducted a “go-slow” along the motorways.

One convoy ended at London, where the truckers handed a petition to the government at Downing Street. The other convoy, starting from further afield, handed its petition to the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff because (ironically), the trip to London would have cost too much.

The underlying problem that the trucking industry faces today is certainly not exclusive to Britain, though. High fuel prices are hammering both British and American truckers. So could America see a similar backlash?

America’s Big Rigs Have Big ProblemsActually, it already has. You may remember some truckers driving their rigs to the Capitol in Washington, D.C. in early April to protest against high fuel prices and imploring Congress to provide some relief measures.

You can see why. While diesel prices are up 30% in Britain over the past year, the price has blasted 80% higher in the US – from $2.50 a gallon this time last year to $4.50 today, according to the New York Times.

When it costs $1,125 to fill up a 250-gallon fuel tank, that clearly crushes any kind of profit margin that trucking companies hope to generate.

In fact, the American Trucking Association says times are so tough today that during the first quarter, 935 companies with fleets of five trucks or more went out of business. That’s up an astonishing 143% from the 385 in Q1 2007 – and is the worst quarterly “bust rate” since 2001.

In total, 45,000 trucking vehicles have permanently pulled off America’s highways since early 2007, according to America’s Commercial Transportation Research.

The domino effect of this is far-reaching. Reduced profits can erode employee wages, decrease supplies of goods, and create more potential for failing companies. In turn, that can cause bankruptcy and dents GDP growth.

So is there a way to play these developments?

Hit The Road (The Railroad, That Is)In a desperate attempt to offset some of the costs, some trucking firms are turning to rail companies.

While trucks can only haul so much and are directly impacted by rising gasoline costs, rail companies can absorb soaring oil prices more easily, as they can haul more goods. A few of the biggest names in this area include:

Burlington Northern Sante Fe (NYSE: BNI) – a firm that Warren Buffett has invested heavily in… Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP)… and CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX).

All three are also members of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT), which is a remarkable story itself…

Transports Bust The TrendRemarkably, despite the march in oil prices to over $130 a barrel, that hasn’t stopped the Dow Transports from surging, too.

This is a major reversal in the historical trend. Oil prices and the Dow Transports usually move in opposite directions – and you’d think that with fuel being the biggest expense for Transportation Index companies and high oil prices pressuring so many areas of the transportation sector, the index that represents these firms would also be under severe pressure.

Not so. The DJT is actually up 15% in 2008, and as my colleague Jim Stanton reported in his bi-weekly “Sector Watch” column last Monday (May 19), the index raced to an all-time high of 5,550.17 on the same day. Jim applied some technical analysis to the index – and how to play the next move profitably through the index’s ETF – so take a look.

With the index made up of airlines like American (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Southwest (NYSE: LUV), plus shipping companies FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and UPS (NYSE: UPS) – all of which are buckling under the weight of high oil and gas prices – economists are now hotly debating whether it’s throwing the market a curveball.

Traditionally seen as a sign of US economic strength and turnarounds, the fact that the index is soaring while consumers and the economy are struggling is a source of confusion.

Recent high-profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as Sharper Image Corp. (SHRPQ) and Linens Holding Co.’s Linens ‘n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster Inc. (BBI)/Circuit City Stores Inc. (CC) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)/Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA), and the admissions from the nation’s leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul of the American economy.  In short, the economy will be getting smaller and more expensive.

The success of all of these seemingly disparate sectors depends, to a large extent, on the ability of Americans to continue to borrow cheaply and easily.  Now that home equity extractions and zero-interest credit card rollovers can no longer be used to fund electronics purchases, vacations or tuition, those corresponding sectors are suffering.  The foundation of our bloated service-sector economy, supported by overseas savings and production, is now giving way.

This diminished capacity will result in a wave of bankruptcies and consolidations to restore profitability in what will become a much smaller service sector.  The days of cheap consumer goods from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and cheap airfares from JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) are coming to an end.  It is all part of the process of an unprecedented decline in America’s standard of living, which is the inevitable result of years of living beyond our means.

For retailers, the business model of selling cheap foreign imported goods to over- leveraged Americans was doomed from the start.  It is fitting that just prior to the collapse, Wall Street private equity firms decided to jump aboard a sinking ship (Linens ‘n Things was purchased by Apollo Management LP for $1.3 billion back in 2006).  No doubt the added debt subsequently piled on to the firm by the profit-squeezing buyout boys hastened the company’s demise.  As revenue declines and debt-servicing costs rise for many retailers (who have been similarly hog-tied by private equity firms), look for additional blow-ups down the road.

As the dollar continues its historic decline, imported goods will become too costly for many Americans.  In addition, more of those products still made (or more likely grown) domestically will be exported to wealthier foreign consumers whose appreciated currencies increase their purchasing power.  As a result, fewer products will be available to fill our shelves and those that remain will carry much higher price tags.

In addition, as defaults on both credit cards and store-charge cards continue to increase, the market for such debt soon will disappear. As a result, the credit crunch will spread from subprime mortgages to all forms of consumer credit. 

The bottom line: Not only will Americans be staring at higher prices; they will have to pay in cash. 

Similarly, the looming airline consolidation will usher in a harsher era for the American airline industry.  In truth, given the rising costs of building, flying and servicing aircraft, U.S. carriers currently supply more planes and passenger miles than American consumers can afford to utilize.  While this may seem illogical in a time when domestic flights are usually fully booked, it is important to realize that these crowded planes do not translate into profits at current ticket prices.  While mergers may help the airlines hold down costs for a bit, the only lasting pathway to profit is fewer flights and significantly higher ticket prices.  Of course, this will mean that Americans of modest means will travel less by air. Unfortunately, that fact is simply an inevitable consequence of a sagging currency and diminishing national wealth.

Although many Americans have come to regard affordable air travel as a birthright, from a global perspective it remains the province of the wealthy.  The massive borrowing that has financed the American economy for generations – combined with an evaporating industrial base and a lack of domestic savings – have all combined to reduce America’s wealth in comparison to the rest of the world.  Consequently, as more materials, technicians and jet fuel go to service the burgeoning Asian air travel industry, the higher the costs will become for American travelers.  As with other hallmarks of a diminished standard of living, Americans now have to confront the reality of staying closer to home.

The same mathematics will come into play for our ridiculously expensive higher education system, which cannot exist without a well-lubricated loan infrastructure.  Limit the ability of students to take on heavy loans, and college education becomes untouchable for anyone but the wealthiest Americans.  If loans dry up, universities will be forced to slash their bureaucracies and substantially reduce tuitions.  Ironically, the silver lining here is that with low tuitions students will no longer need the loans that kept tuitions so high in the first place.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and dollar-denominated investments, read Peter Schiff’s new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.”  Click here to order a copy today.