Good day… And welcome to another week, the last one in August! The weather here in St. Louis has shifted toward fall, which is my favorite season. Chuck is flying back home from San Francisco today and will be back in the saddle tomorrow. Both he and the big boss, Frank Trotter, sent me some great Pfennig pfodder over the weekend so lets get right to it.

The dollar continued to drift lower throughout the trading day on Friday, with the commodity currencies of Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand leading the way. Confidence is returning to the markets, and investors are once again moving out of the ’safe havens’ of the Japanese yen and US dollar. The reports coming out of Jackson Hole indicate that central bankers believe chances for near-term growth appear good and recent data seem to support this conclusion.

European industrial orders increased more than economists forecast in June rising 3.1% from May. This was the largest gain in over a year and a half, and is the latest sign that the European economy is starting to climb back out of recession. But many economists question the strength of the recovery, saying the pick up in economic growth was mainly due to government programs. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded cautious after the report. “We see some signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall,” Trichet said in Jackson Hole. But this “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bumpy road ahead of us.”

The home sales data released in the US on Friday were surprisingly strong, with existing home sales increasing 7.2% month on month. We get a bit of a break in the data releases today with just the Chicago Fed index; but the rest of the week will give us plenty of data to digest. Tomorrow we see the S&P/CaseShiller housing data, US consumer confidence, and ABC consumer confidence numbers. Wednesday will bring Durable Goods orders along with New Home sales. Thursday will give us another look at the estimate for 2nd Quarter GDP here in the US along with the weekly jobless claims. And we will close out the week on Friday with the release of Personal income and spending for July.

Should be a busy week ahead, and I would expect for most of the data out of the US to continue to confirm a government led recovery is underway here in the US. In particular, the consumer spending and durable goods orders should show a nice uptick on the back of the cash for clunker program. But Chuck sent me a note over the weekend which questions the ’success’ of this program. Is it really what the US economy needed? Here are Chuck’s thoughts from San Francisco:

“I was sitting here thinking about something that had flashed across the TV screen here in my room, and that is the “Cash for Clunkers” program… I blasted this program two weeks ago, and now that it’s finally done with and $3 Billion was spent to artificially boost auto sales, I will put my final thought on this… Of course I already talked about the obvious things wrong with this program. But here’s my final thought, and that is… I believe the program is going to end up hurting the most vulnerable consumers in the U.S. Middle Class buyers, traded in their “paid for” cars, and leveraged up to buy a new car, when they probably shouldn’t have done so, given the rot on the economy’s vine.

So… Once again, I’m reminded of the words that President Reagan said were the scariest words that could be spoken… “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help”…

The reason I’m all over this program today like a cheap suit, is that this weekend, I heard that Big Ben Bernanke made a claim at the Jackson Hole boondoggle, that “we saved the world”… Oh, Come on Big Ben, isn’t that just a bit dramatic? Does this statement have anything to do with the fact that you are up for re-appointment in January, and you would love to have that thought of you “saving the world” on the minds of the administration?

So… In the end, we’ll see if “he saved the world”…”

I’m with Chuck on this one. It seems the US government is intent on getting consumers to go back to their borrow and spend habits. This is what created the bubbles, and the administration seems intent on creating another bubble economy. US consumers have made some historic cut backs on the amount of debt they are amassing (whether or not these cutbacks are by choice). The US government should not be encouraging these consumers to go back to their previous ways, but should instead be trying to use the funds to educate and train consumers and to encourage new and innovative companies. Use this downturn to correct some of the bad habits which we had gotten into. Yes, it will be painful, but breaking an addiction is always hard and painful. US consumers need to break our addiction to easy credit and massive debt. This recession/depression has given consumers a much needed wake up call, hopefully the administration won’t be able to push consumers back into their old habits.

I went running with my wife and her friends over the weekend (trying to take it easy on the back) and got into a discussion about the US economy. One of my wife’s friends had heard an interview on MSNBC in which an economist stated we were in a classic V shaped recovery. I let her know that I think the economist was one letter off, and that instead we will see the recovery shaped more like a W. The green shoots and recovery we are seeing right now will die out as government stimulus slows. High unemployment, a long slow housing recovery, commercial real estate woes, and rising personal bankruptcies will force the economy into another dramatic downturn. Central banks who have ‘juiced’ their economies with unlimited credit will have to decide whether to continue juicing, or pull back from the table.

Nouriel Roubini wrote a commentary in today’s Financial Times which agrees with my thoughts. Roubini said the chance of a double dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus. He believes the global economy still has further to fall, and will bottom out sometime during the second half of 2009. While some economies such as China, Germany, Australia, and France will likely recover; others such as the US and UK will double dip with another leg down. “There are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing,” Roubini wrote. “Policy makers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

Oil traded up to a 10 month high over the weekend, and carried the commodity based currencies of Canada, Mexico, Norway, and Australia with it. Oil will continue to run up as confidence in a global recovery strengthens. Another factor which has helped boost demand for Australian dollar investments was a move by the Aussie govt. which removed interest withholding tax on federal government securities. This made these investments more attractive and spurred additional demand for the currency.

The Hungarian central bank will meet today and is expected to cut their benchmark interest rate. Rates in Hungary are the highest in the European Union, and lower growth combined with low inflation will spur the cut. The Hungarian forint weakened from the strongest level in a week on the interest cut speculation.

The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency has been a continued topic among scholars and was undoubtedly discussed out in Jackson hole last week. China and Russia have both been adamant about discussing the possibility of moving toward a new reserve system to replace the greenback. Since no single currency is strong enough to replace the dollar in today’s global economy, most discussion has centered around the idea of creating a ‘reserve currency’ which is comprised of a basket of the world’s largest currencies. This idea is supported by Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winning economist and Columbia University economics professor. “The dollar’s role as a good store of value is questionable and the currency has a high degree of risk,” Stiglitz said at a conference last Friday. “There is a need for a global reserve system. The currency reserve system is in the process of fraying,” Stiglitz said. “The dollar is not a good store of value.”

Frank Trotter was thinking about the same thing as he sat and watched a musical over the weekend. Frank is a real thinker, and I really enjoy it when I get a chance to have a good economic discussion with him. Luckily for all of you Pfennig readers, he decided to send me a note on his thoughts during the performance. So here they are:

“Went to the touring musical Mary Poppins Saturday night; it’s always great to see a play about a run on a bank. While the books were written in the 1930’s and beyond most of you will remember the Disney film set in 1910 – before the Great War when England ruled the waves and empire was returning untold dividends to the mother country. At that time of course there was no questioning the power, status and earning capacity of the British Empire. As George Banks replies to Admiral Boom in the movie, “Credit rates are moving up, up, up. And the British pound is the admiration of the world.”

Well that was then and this is now. Soon after, in 1914 England suspended the conversion of Bank of England notes to gold for the period surrounding World War I, and the on again off again slide into today’s fiat currency world began. Over the next 100 years England has leaned the lesson of empires that came before. That extending the resources of a country in non-producing capacity leads to the decline of the currency and a fall in the economic power of the country and the economic wellbeing of it’s population. In 1910 it took 4.25 pounds to buy an ounce of gold, and 0.2056 pounds to buy a US dollar. Today of course the price of gold has risen 13,447% for British buyers, while the price of a greenback is only up 195%. We are uncomfortably comfortable in feeling that the carabineers have given way for the good old USA in a parallel fashion.

We’ll freely admit that there has been a slow motion slide going on in the US dollar since establishment, and especially since the removal from the gold standard and the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. But we feel even more strongly that the fiscal and monetary policies put in place starting in 2001, accelerating through the 2000’s, and now amplified since January 20th have left us with no legs for our stool. Fiscal policy has been and continues to be out of control. The Federal Reserve policy of the 2000’s created the credit bubble and now stands to create the largest monetary inflation experienced in a first world nation. Both political parties have determined that no one can be an adult in government by slashing spending or raising taxes to cover our exploding gap (mathematically the only two options), and instead are hiding behind the invisible tax of currency depreciation. For a country we conclude that a strong currency is essential to long term well being, and by extension that our government has given up on the dream in exchange for election and reelection.

So what’s to be done? If you are a believer that the political process can sort things out and return our wonderful nation to fiscal prudence and steady governance go ahead and stay the course. For the rest of us who like Margaret Thatcher believe that “the problem with socialism is that eventually you run our of other people’s money”, we’ll be letting our “tuppance safely invested in the bank” seek diversification across the globe in countries and markets with more opportunity and prudence. We couldn’t agree more with the Mary Poppins conclusion, re-written for modern times that “Where stands the banks of [the USA], America stand. Oh, oh, oh, oh! When falls the banks of [the USA], America falls!”

Leave it to Frank to use Mary Poppins to give an economics lesson! And with that, I will close this out and head to the currency roundup.

Currencies today 8/24/09: A$ .8400, kiwi .6845, C$ .9251, euro 1.4308, sterling 1.6492, Swiss .9424, rand 7.7805, krone 6.045, SEK 7.0496, forint 187.60, zloty 2.8755, koruna 17.775, yen 94.86, sing 1.4396, HKD 7.7505, INR 48.5575, China 6.8314, pesos 12.7805, BRL 1.8299, dollar index 78.17, Oil $73.98, 10-year 3.56%, Silver $14.42, and Gold… $953.85

That’s it for today… Thanks to both Chuck and Frank for giving me so much good stuff to include in today’s Pfennig! Kristin Kuchem sent me a note and told me she got stranded in the Chicago airport on her way back from San Fran last night. It is her son Jack’s first day of Kindergarten so she was pretty bummed out that she couldn’t get home to send him off. Flying just isn’t much fun anymore, as the airlines overbook most flights and any kind of weather can royally screw up your best laid plans. Hopefully Kristin can make it back down from Chicago in time to pick Jack up from school. John Smoltz had an impressive first outing for the Cardinals yesterday, setting a club record with 7 strikeouts in a row! Sure looks like this is going to be a fun October here in St. Louis. Hope everyone has a Marvelous Monday and a great start to your week!

Source: European orders support the Euro

Notes can reveal that the pre-meeting booklet for the meeting is predicting “either a prolonged, agonising depression that dooms the world to decades of stagflation, decline and poverty – or an intense but shorter depression that paves the way for a new sustainable economic world order, with less sovereignty but more efficiency.”

• Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the United States needs to take aggressive economy-stimulating action or risk facing a lost decade of growth a la Japan in the 1990s. “We’re doing half-measures that help the economy limp along without fully recovering, and we’re having measures that help the banks survive without really thriving,” Krugman told reporters in Beijing, Reuters reported. “We’re doing what the Japanese did in the 90s.”

• European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he and fellow policy makers are seeing the first signs of economy recovery. Recent reports are “encouraging, but it’s no time for complacency,” Trichet said at a meeting of global banks, Bloomberg reported.

• AstraZeneca plc’s (NYSE ADR: AZN) heart drug Brilinta beat blockbuster drug Plavix – of Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE ADR: SNY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co’s (NYSE: BMY) – in one of the largest comparative head-to-head drug studies, Reuters reported. Plavix alone nets about $8 billion and if approved, Brilinta would take a large portion of that.

• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) may have to pay an antitrust fine of more than 1 billion euros ($1.36 billion) and stop giving discounts to computer sellers. The company faces awaits the decision of the European Commission on charges that it has been muscling competitors out of the European market, Bloomberg reported.

• General Motors Corp (GM) is open to moving its headquarters from Detroit. The company also may sell some of its U.S. plants and renegotiate its restructuring plan with unions as it heads toward probable bankruptcy, GM Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson said yesterday (Monday), according to Reuters. Henderson it was more likely that GM was headed for bankruptcy by June 1 – the U.S. government-imposed deadline for the automaker to restructure.

• Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) plans to sell $3.75 billion of debt in its first bond offering, taking advantage of its top credit ratings to help fund a share buyback and technology investments.  The world’s largest software maker, whose shares have declined 34% in the past year, is seizing on a credit-market rally to help fund a $40 billion stock repurchase program. The company is also investing in data centers to compete against Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) in Internet search, Bloomberg reported.

• Dish Network Corp (NASDAQ: DISH) posted better-than-expected profits on Monday and lost fewer subscribers than most Wall Street analysts had forecast, sending its shares soaring, Reuters reported. U.S. satellite TV provider Shares rose as much as 21.5 percent in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq on the lower customer losses and indications that the company had started to get control over a long-standing problem with piracy with its set-top box software.

• Nortel Networks Corp (OTC: NRTLQ), North America’s biggest maker of telephone equipment, said yesterday (Monday) its quarterly loss widened as the global recession contributed to a 37% drop in revenue, Reuters reported.  Nortel, which filed for bankruptcy protection earlier this year, also said it is completing plans to decentralize some functions at each of its four main businesses to give it more flexibility as it decides which divisions to sell.

Source: Investment News Briefs Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Figures showing Japan’s economy shank sharply in the final quarter of 2008, recording its biggest quarterly decline since 1974, helped perceived safe-haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen, propelling the dollar index to a two-month high.

Meanwhile, the lack of reference to yen strength in the final communique of Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in Rome at the weekend allowed investors to resume buying the Japanese currency.

“The data out of Japan was nothing short of shocking and there is a building sense that there are more problems ahead for the global economy,” IDEAglobal senior strategist Maurice Pomery said. This has helped support the dollar and the yen, he added.

The euro came close to a two-month low against the dollar, while sterling was near a two-week trough, with both weighed by heightened risk aversion in the market as European equities fell 1 percent.

The single currency was also pressured by fresh worries about western European banks’ exposure to troubles in eastern Europe as S&P rating agency warned it could cut the sovereign ratings of Ukraine due to refinancing concerns.

“Continuing problems with eastern European emerging markets will keep the dollar bid against the euro,” IDEAglobal’s Pomery said.

He noted, however, that trading was relatively subdued, with U.S. markets closed for a public holiday.

At 1119 GMT the dollar index was at 86.690, just shy of an earlier two-month high of 86.871, according to Reuters data.

The euro fell 0.8 percent against the U.S. currency at $1.2758 and the pound lost 1 percent to $1.4236 .

The pound also lost ground as the G7 meeting did not mention the recent sharp fall in the value of the UK currency as many in the market had expected.

Against the yen the euro dropped 1.2 percent to 117.09 yen , while the dollar dipped 0.2 percent to 91.76 yen .

The dollar earlier briefly edged into positive territory against the yen after Japanese finance minister Shoichi Nakagawa said he would resign if asked to after coming under fire for his behaviour at a G7 news conference.

It quickly turned back into the red, however, as Nakagawa said Prime Minister Taro Aso had asked him to stay on in the job, adding that he had been affected by medicine he was taking for a cold at the G7 meeting.

TRICHET EYED

With U.S. interest rates now standing at between zero and 0.25 percent and UK rates at 1 percent and expected to fall further, the focus is on what the next move will be by euro zone policymakers.

Speaking on Saturday, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB had not drawn any particular conclusions after discussions with other banks.

Trichet is due to speak on Monday afternoon and investors will be watching closely for any clues on how much more the central bank is likely to cut rates and whether it is considering unconventional measures to boost the money supply.

“Trichet could be another hitch for the euro if it opens the door to another rate cut,” Commerzbank currency strategist Antje Praefcke said.

The ECB left rates on hold at 2.0 percent in February but it is widely expected to cut rates in March in an attempt to bolster a flagging euro zone economy.

Meanwhile, recession fears intensified after data showed an unprecedented slump in exports caused Japan’s economy to shrink by 3.3 percent in October-December, the sharpest fall since the first oil crisis in 1974.

Analysts said the grim figures weighed on higher-yielding currencies, with the Australian dollar particularly weak on concerns about a hit to its trade with Japan.

The Australian dollar was down 1.2 percent against the U.S. dollar at $0.6490 .

The dollar and the yen fell sharply against the euro on Friday as a rally in stocks around the world and fresh government aid for U.S. banks revived investor optimism and some risk appetite.

The euro also was recovering from a sell-off in the previous session as traders reassessed European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s comments following the ECB’s decision to cut rates by a half percentage point to 2 percent.

“We have a much healthier risk appetite. That’s definitely helping the euro,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York.

The market was re-thinking the implications of comments on Thursday by Trichet, who said any further ECB rate cuts will be postponed until March at the earliest and dismissed the idea of cutting rates close to zero, as the United States and Japan had, analysts said.

“Essentially, there’s going to be a floor on European rates…which will leave the euro with a moderately higher yield than the dollar and the yen,” Schlossberg said.

In early trading in New York, the euro gained 1.2 percent to $1.3314 , rebounding from a five-week low of $1.3025 hit on Thursday, according to Reuters data.

The euro rallied 2.1 percent to 120.52 yen , while the dollar gained 0.8 percent to 90.51 yen .

Risk appetite picked up on Friday with stocks rallying after Bank of America received a $20 billion government capital injection, overshadowing signs of more fallout from the credit crisis for the financial sector.

Those measures along with the prospect of another bank lending package in Britain eased investor concerns and boosted higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

“The fact that we are now seeing the U.S. and even UK authorities looking at further help for the financial and banking system have provided some relief,” BNP Paribas senior currency strategist Ian Stannard said in London.

“While the equity market rebound continues, we’re likely to see euro/dollar maintain its current recovery,” he added.

The dollar lost more ground against the euro after a Treasury Department report showed investors sold U.S. Treasury bonds in November for the first time since August 2007, when the credit crunch began. Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries amounted to $22.88 billion compared with inflows $32.87 billion the previous month.

Net capital inflows into the United States fell to $56.8 billion in November from a revised inflow of $260.6 billion in October, according to the report.

MORE AID

The aid for Bank of America followed the U.S. Senate’s decision to allow the second half of a $700 billion bank bailout program, handing an early political victory to President-elect Barack Obama, who will be sworn in next Tuesday.

Also, Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives have unveiled an $825 billion tax cut and spending bills they hope will help Obama reverse the economic slump, offsetting fears of soaring losses at the top three U.S. banks.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained 1.8 percent and 2 percent versus the U.S. currency respectively .

Sterling also surged, rising 2.1 percent to $1.4953.

Despite the boost from the news about government aid,worries about the banking sector were not far from investors’ minds, as Citigroup and Bank of America both reported a fourth quarter loss. Citigroup also said it would split into two operating units.

Meanwhile, Ireland nationalized its third largest lender, Anglo Irish Bank .

NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters)

Good day…It was actually a Great day for the currencies yesterday as the dollar index dropped another full point. The Euro moved past $1.35 and then blew through $1.36 to end the day over $1.37. And the Euro wasn’t even the best performer, as the New Zealand dollar rallied over 2.1% vs. the US$ to take the title of best performing currency against the greenback. The South African rand was the only currency turning in a negative performance yesterday with the other commodity driven currencies of Norway and Brazil just barely holding their ground vs. the US$.

The currency rally caught Chuck’s eye and he fired off the following email for me to include this morning:

“Quite a day in the currencies again… Looks like that Santa Rally for the currencies that I first mentioned on December 8th, is coming to fruition. Of course “I didn’t know this would happen” I was just giving market commentary on what looked like was happening!

So… 1.37 and change for the euro, the move from 1.27 and change has been swift and fast. And why not? I’ve said all along that the dollar’s rally was just a bear market rally. Now, we’ll have to see if this can continue, which I believe it will, or if this was just a false dawn.

Well… It’s Christmas time, so the giving is going on… And it looks like we’ll see the Gov’t “give” more once the calendar turns to 2009. What was once a $150-200 Billion stimulus package that would be sent through in January when the new lawmakers take their oath, now looks as though it will be in the neighborhood of $600 Billion, that is according to Nancy Pelosi who made that announcement yesterday. Shoot Rudy! What’s another $400 Billion among friends?

By my calculations, that will put us nearer to $3 Trillion in bailouts and stimulus packages… There’s a total of over $8.5 Trillion that has been allocated with funding facilities, but the actual output of cash is around $2.5 Trillion before the next deal in January gets done.

No wonder the dollar is getting pummeled once again!

I did a 1 hour interview yesterday… It was a “the world according to Chuck” interview… Long time readers all down about what I probably had to say, but it was cool getting to go “free form” and just let it all hang out. I will go to my darling daughter’s (Dawn) kindergarten classroom tomorrow and read to them… Dawn has always been a fan of the way I read, The Night Before Christmas… And her kids always get a kick out me doing this, most of them think I AM Santa Claus!”

Chuck loves the holidays, and I think reading to the kindergarten class is one of his favorite parts!

Today the markets will be awaiting the FOMC rate decision and the accompanying statement which should be released around 1:15 CST. As I stated yesterday, a cut of 50 basis points is already cooked in, but noise from the street indicates we could actually see a 75 basis point cut. The market is currently trading Fed Funds at .125%, so a drop of 75 basis points would move the target very close to where the market is trading. But as we have said in past Pfennigs, the FOMC has almost used up all of their interest rate ammunition, and will have to look for other ways to try and steer our economy out of the recession. The markets will be looking at the accompanying statement for any guidance as to the direction the FOMC will take next. ‘Quantitative Easing’ will be the big buzz words of the next few weeks. We will just have to wait and see just how creative our Fed is going to get.

The Fed will start to use its balance sheet as the key tool for monetary policy. Since he can’t cut rates much further, Ben Bernanke will likely start channeling credit directly to businesses and consumers by further enlarging its $2.26 trillion of assets. Bernanke and his compatriots will have to try some new experiments to manipulate the supply of money to try and prevent the worst recession in a quarter century from turning into a depression.

The data released yesterday continued to indicate the US economy is faltering, as the Empire manufacturing and Industrial Production numbers showed pretty large losses. Industrial Production decreased by .6% during November, as US manufacturing output continues to fall. Production has now decreased 7 out of the last 11 months, and the more important Capacity Utilization number also fell. We won’t be seeing the manufacturing sector pull us out of this recession any time soon, as the utilization number shows we are only using 75% of our manufacturing capabilities.

The manufacturing numbers were bad, but these negative numbers were largely expected. The surprise of the day came as the Net Long-term TIC flows for October were released. TIC flows were expected to be right around $40 billion, just slightly below what is necessary for us to fund our deficits. But the actual TIC flows were barely positive at just $1.5 billion. Could the rest of the world finally be tiring of our US Treasuries? Actually, foreigners continued to purchase treasuries, but sold a record amount of debt issued by mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)  and other agencies, offsetting the treasury purchases.

So investors were shortening up the duration of the US$ holdings, selling longer term securities to buy short term treasuries. This has to have the Fed shaking in their boots, as no investor buys short term paper at near zero rates with a plan to hold them. This money is being parked short term, and will move out of the dollar as soon as the markets start to calm down. China remained the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries, after its holdings rose by $65.9 billion to nearly $653 billion. Japan is the second largest holder with nearly $586 billion of US debt.

For those of you who may be wondering why the TIC data is so important, this is how we finance our deficits. As Chuck reported last week, the US trade gap unexpectedly widened 1.1 percent in October to $57.2 billion. Yesterday’s numbers show we only were able to attract $1.5 billion of foreign capital to finance this gap. So the remaining balance had to be financed with additional debt. It seems we just keep digging the hole deeper and deeper!!

The Euro was helped out by ECB President Trichet who indicated he would pause interest rate cuts in 2009. Trichet told journalists in Frankfurt that ECB policy makers want to “concentrate at this stage on getting what we already decided to be really operational.” He went on to say there is a limit to how far the bank can cut rates. “Do we have a feeling there is a limit to the decrease in rates? At this stage certainly yes.” Sounds like the ECB doesn’t want to follow the US into the zero interest rate environment. Maybe Trichet and his colleagues realize just how dangerous a zero rate policy can be with regard to future inflation.

Data released this morning caused the euro to back off its high of $1.3737 as reports showed European manufacturing and service industries contracted at the fastest pace in at least a decade. These reports showed the Eurozone faces some of the same challenges as the US, but in my opinion, their central bank has done a better job of dealing with the slowdown. With the FOMC cutting rates today, and the ECB indicating that they are going to pause, the Euro will likely continue to gain back some of the losses of the past 6 months.

The Australia and New Zealand dollars both rose for a second day on interest rate differentials. The Australian dollar extended gains after the central bank indicated it would slow the pace of further rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed its forecast for inflation to 2.5 percent from a November prediction of 3 percent. Policy makers have a target range of 2 and 3 percent for Aussie inflation. With inflation in their target range and a simulative monetary policy, the RBA doesn’t need to do much more with rates. Commodity prices have hurt both the AUD and NZD, and any increase in commodity prices during 2009 would have a big positive impact on both these currencies.

Any hope for commodity prices will center around the rebound of the Chinese economy. China’s central bank Governor Zhou Ziaochuan continues to call for aggressive action to keep China’s growth rate from dropping below 8%. The Chinese govt. pledged last week to boost liquidity after cutting interest rates last month by the most in 11 years to spur lending and consumption. China’s economy has slowed, but will likely grow at 6 percent during 2009. This is still an excellent growth rate for the world’s fourth largest economy, but below the 8% rate many believe is necessary to avoid social instability.

Currencies today 12/16/08: A$ .6694, kiwi .5589, C$ .8102, euro 1.3659, sterling 1.5246, Swiss .8661, ISK 218, rand 10.3118 krone 6.9629, SEK 8.0583, forint 195.84, zloty 2.9716, koruna 19.319, yen 90.01, baht 34.78, sing 1.4781, HKD 7.7502, INR 47.91, China 6.8457, pesos 13.3631, BRL 2.39, dollar index 82.16, Oil $45.02, Silver $10.49, and Gold… $832.77

Source: Santa Rally for the Currencies

Since the Euro-region slipped into a recession in October, the ECB has cut its main interest rate by 175 basis points to 2.5%. However, the bank’s policymakers, led by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, are now sounding calls for more fiscal discipline.

Investors are betting that the ECB will be forced to shave another 50 basis points off its benchmark rate in January, but ECB council member Axel Weber warned last week that the bank “would like to avoid” taking it below that level.

“We should be cautious when our rates approach territory we haven’t explored before,” Weber told Bloomberg News. “Our lowest level so far was 2.0%.”

ECB President Trichet told The Financial Times today (Monday) that there was “a degree of excessive pessimism” when the bursting of the dot-com bubble drove central banks to slash benchmark borrowing costs. Many analysts believe those excessively low lending rates fueled the asset bubbles of the past decade, including the massive run-up in real estate prices whose subsequent collapse helped trigger the current global downturn.

Trichet added that policymakers had a duty “to eliminate as completely as possible all the inbuilt elements in global finance that are amplifying booms and busts.”

ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said Dec. 10 that any room left for further rate reductions is “very limited, potentially allowing for small steps only.”

Of course, there are some analysts who believe the recent rhetoric coming from the ECB is just that.

“They will be forced to go to 1.0% or lower by June,” Juergen Michels, chief Euro-region economist at Citigroup Inc. (C) in London told Bloomberg. “The rhetoric at the moment is to justify their forecasts, which are too optimistic.”

The ECB forecasts the greater European economy will contract by 0.5% in 2009, before expanding by about 1.0% in 2010.

If the ECB’s estimates are too generous, the European central bank could again be forced to backtrack on its policy mandates. The ECB actually raised its benchmark rate to 4.25% in July, with policymakers expressing concern that “price and wage-setting behavior could add to inflationary pressures.”

The bank reversed course just four months later in October, cutting its rate by half a point on Oct. 8.

“The ECB should refrain from considering any pause in the easing cycle to avoid falling again behind the curve,” Marco Valli, an economist at UniCredit SpA in Milan, told Bloomberg.

Source: ECB Strikes Hawkish Tone on Interest Rates as U.S. Fed Plans Further Cuts

As ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet announced the largest cut in the Eurozone’s 10-year history, he said that the region is bracing for negative growth next year.

“Global and euro-area demand are likely to be dampened for a protracted period of time,” Trichet said at a press conference in Brussels today, Bloomberg reported.

The ECB estimates average annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be between 0.8% and 1.2% in 2008, between -1.0% and 0.0% in 2009 and between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2010.

The ECB’s rate reduction followed two other huge central bank cuts in Europe.

The Bank of England cut its rate by one percentage point to 2%, its lowest level since 1951. That cut followed its 1.5 percentage point cut to 3% less than a month ago. Sweden’s central bank also slashed a record 1.75 percentage points from its primary interest rate.

Meanwhile, France unveiled its own economic stimulus plan today – a $32.9 billion (26 billion euro) injection that will target infrastructure, support local authorities and help its own ailing auto industry. The goal is to increase its GDP by 0.6% next year and push its deficit to 3.9% of the GDP, Reuters reported.

Wrapping everything together, are the Eurozone’s latest economic statistics, also released today, that said that GDP shrank 0.2% in the second quarter, investment dropped 0.6% and household spending remained flat.

Holger Schmeiding, chief European economist at Bank of America in London, said Europe is facing a “very serious recession.”

“Despite a major monetary stimulus and some help from lower oil prices and a looser fiscal policy, we do not expect the economy to recover before late 2009,” Schmeiding told Bloomberg.

Outside the Eurozone, four other countries recently slashed their primary lending rate earlier this week.

• New Zealand reduced its interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, a five-year low.
• Indonesia made its first interest rate cut since December 2007, reducing its key interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 9.25%, Reuters reported.
• The Bank of Thailand cut its main interest rate one percentage point to 2.75%, its biggest reduction in eight years and its first cut in 16 months.
• Australia also cut its lending rate by a full percentage point to 4.25%, a six-year low.

Source: Record Rate Cuts and Economic Props Light up Europe

How did this happen? The dollar was heading for a drubbing against the euro last week. Currency expert Chuck Butler believes that Fed chief Ben Bernanke sent ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet a memo pleading with him to help the dollar out by not signaling further rate hikes in Europe.

Did Trichet and Bernanke cosy up before last week’s ECB move. We don’t know. Whatever happened, the dollar has been given breathing space… for now. More from Chuck:

The European Central Bank (ECB) did indeedly do raise rates 25 BPS and say that it was inflation running high that caused them to raise rates… And about the same time, the Jobs Jamboree posted a job loss for June of 62K, and the storm clouds were forming… But then, ECB President pulled a rabbit out of his hat and said… “Starting from here, I have no Bias”… Folks, that’s just as good as saying, “here’s your rate hike, don’t expect another one”… No hawkish tone… No pointing out how inflation pressures are causing the ECB problems with their mandate to provide price stability… No nothing, nada, zilch, zero, and the euro was sent to the woodshed… And the whippin’ was awful!

So, what happened here? Ahhh grasshopper, this is the “Beware the Thin Markets” conspiracy stuff I was talking about on Thursday morning. I believe in my heart of hearts that Big Ben Bernanke and Treasury Sec. Paulson, sent ECB President, Trichet, a memo. The memo said… “please help us out here… You are going to raise rates and talk hawkish on the same day we are going to post a huge negative jobs number, thus telling the markets the Fed is NOT going to raise rates soon… Could you please not sound so hawkish? That would help us greatly… Thanks, Big Ben and Hank”

Trichet “got the message”… That’s how I truly believe the day went. So, we are sitting with the euro almost 3-cents lower than on Thursday morning when I signed off… U-G-L-Y… With the Big Dog euro getting whipped, the rest of the currencies suffered as well. Not much else to say about all that…

So, let’s get back to basics… The fundamentals of the U.S. economy continue to be rotten… The Jobs Jamboree posted a net negative jobs of 62K, and the previous month’s job losses were revised up to negative -62K (from -49K)… The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did their part, just as I suspected they would on Thursday, by adding 177K jobs with their Birth / Death Model… They even had the gall to add 29K Construction jobs! Geez Louise, Serenity Now! This is getting preposterous! When will this all come back to bite the BLS? Probably not for awhile, as they will want the dust to settle for some time before they come clean… But for the record… The job losses in June would have been -239K, added to May’s -279K, if there were no Birth / Death Model.

The data cupboard is empty and needs restocking… But… Did you hear this little ditty about the Fed Reserve? The Fed is going to be faced with a general inspection by the IMF… The story printed on Wednesday last week, but you didn’t hear about it on your favorite cable news station, now did you? Here’s the skinny… Officials with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system. The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States. It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system. No Fed chief in U.S. history has been forced to submit to the kind of humiliation that Ben Bernanke is facing.

I wonder what the IMF will say about those “wonderfully performing bonds” that the Fed took in the Bear Stearns bailout? The writer of the story, Gabor Steingart, had this great line, that sounds like it came right out of the Pfennig… Here it is… “Inflation is going up and up, and this year’s average will likely top 4 percent. But this time Mr. Dollar is also Mr. Powerless. He can raise interest rates in the fall, or he can pray, which would probably be the better choice. At least prayer would not prevent the US economy from growing, a highly likely outcome if interest rates go up.”

So, the Fed has to deal with that embarrassing “audit” from the IMF, while the economy is melting down… I truly believe that Consumers are being beaten around the head and shoulders with high gasoline and food prices, their house values falling, credit as tight as a drum, the stock market going to hell in a hand basket, and now job losses for 6 consecutive months… This all sounds like the late 70’s early 80’s to me… The only thing missing are interest rates as high as the sky!

But, the “boys” have successfully diverted the markets attention away from all of this rotten stuff for now… And they got their brother-in-arms, Trichet to play along with them for now too…

Now the blame for spiraling food and oil prices is increasingly being laid at the door of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for cutting the fed funds rate to 2% and unleashing yet another wave of inflationary surplus liquidity.

The fallout is now being seen as India, China, the Philippines and Indonesia hike their own interest rates to rein in rising prices.

Consumer prices jumped 7.7% last month, down from 8.5% in April, but inflation there remains top of the list of economic concerns.

While the US and most of Asia struggle to put the inflation geenie back in the bottle, David Stevenson in Money Week heaps praise on European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, who is fast becoming the hero of inflation fighters everywhere…

Because yesterday, amid the usual turgid guff that central bankers usually churn out when they’re doing nothing very much, he came up with a bit of a bombshell – an imminent interest rate rise.

Although key rates are being kept unchanged for now, the ECB’s Governing Council has been getting more and more twitchy about climbing consumer prices which have risen “significantly” since last autumn due to soaring energy and food prices. And now Monsieur Trichet and co. expect inflation to stay high for longer than it first thought, because money supply is still growing too fast.

So not only are Euro central bankers staying “in a state of heightened alertness”, they’re prepared to “act in a firm and timely manner to ensure that medium term risks to price stability do not materialize”, and to show “strong determination to anchor medium and long-term inflation expectations in line with price stability.”

In short, expect an ECB rate hike next month.

It’s certainly seems to have come as a bit of a shock to many analysts. Just a week ago, Capital Economics was fairly confidently predicting that with eurozone inflation set to ease later this year, “the next move in interest rates should be down”.

But it’s good to see that some central bankers this side of the Atlantic are still taking their jobs seriously and trying to maintain the value of their currency. Which, it seems, the ECB can do rather more easily than Bank of England governor Mervyn King.

He’d probably like to do the same as the eurozone, with UK inflation seeping above the 3% mark at which he has to pen an open letter to Chancellor Darling explaining what’s gone wrong, but his hands are tied while the UK economy is falling off a cliff. And it looks like the knots are getting tighter by the day, with the unwelcome news that Mr Darling has now decided to give Mr King some extra outside ‘help’ in “advising” the Bank about “financial stability”.

That sounds horribly like Government-speak for finding ways to fiddle around with the Old Lady’s independence, and specifically to find ways of altering the Bank’s 2% inflation mandate. That would be a serious mistake – changing the target again would just chuck any remaining financial credibility the UK has left, right out of the window.

Talking of being a credible inflation-battling central banker, US Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke certainly isn’t one, having presided over a cavalier slashing of American interest rates in the face of a worse inflationary storm than the ECB is battling. But to be fair to the Fed, not quite all his colleagues are in quite the same boat.

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker has just ‘fessed up to his fears that the Fed’s lending to securities firms introduced in March could stoke up problems in the future, because it might “induce greater risk taking, which in turn could give rise to more frequent crises”.

In other words, we could soon be right back in the same boom-to bubble-to-bust mess from which we’re now suffering.

Thank goodness someone in authority in the US has seen the dangers. Though it’s a shame that Mr Lacker isn’t running the whole Stateside central bank show. Then we might see some rate rises over there, too.