U.S. crude prices for October delivery rose 2 cents to $68.07 a barrel by 11:44 a.m. EDT (1644 GMT), after earlier reaching a high of $69.40 on U.S. stock gains and a weaker dollar.

London Brent crude was down 32 cents at $67.34 a barrel.

“Right now, there’s not a whole lot of momentum here in either direction. I think the trend for the week, which has been down, is still in force,” said Tom Bentz, senior commodity analyst, BNP Paribas commodity Futures Inc in New York.

“Everything seemed to kind of slip right after the jobs data,” he added.

U.S. jobless claims fell last week, according to a report released by the Department of Labor on Thursday, but the prior week’s figure was revised up.

The number of people collecting long-term unemployment benefits rose to 6.23 million in the week ended Aug. 22, well above market expectations for 6.12 million.

U.S. stocks edged up on Thursday on better-than-expected sales from retailers in August.

The Institute for Supply Management released a report on Thursday showing that while the U.S. services sector shrank in August, an index measuring activity was at its highest in nearly a year.

RANGEBOUND

Oil prices are not likely to break out of the confines of the current range in the short term, analysts said.

U.S. crude prices have been rangebound, between $65 to $75 a barrel since the start of August, fluctuating on the latest clues about the speed of an impending economic recovery.

“There isn’t the structural tightness for the market to break out of this range,” said Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob, pointing to brimming global distillates such as diesel stored on land and at sea.

Traders were also eyeing news that big oil producers are increasing output. Russian oil output hit a record high in August, nearing 10 million barrels per day as the country launched a new giant field.

OPEC is expected to leave output targets unchanged when it next meets on Sept. 9 in Vienna.

Sept 3 (Reuters)

Existing home sales rose 7.2% to a 5.24 million annual rate in July, the most since August 2007 and the fourth straight month the figure increased, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. Year-over-year sales grew 5%, the increase since September 2007, just before the markets came crashing down the following month.

“The housing market has decisively turned for the better,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales.”

Rising sales numbers in the past few months may have triggered previously discouraged sellers to re-list their homes, according to Yun.

Total housing inventory at the end of July grew 7.3% to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, representing a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace. However, the raw inventory totals are 10.6% lower than they were last year.

Sellers are responding to rising inventories accordingly: The national median existing home price was $178,400 in July, 15.1% lower than a year ago. But the fact that buyers are dipping their toes back into the murky depths of the housing market doesn’t necessarily mean the sector is trending toward a full-blown recovery.

Turn of the Year Makes for Uncertain Future

One in three homes sales last month came from first-time buyers who benefited from the Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credit, which ends after November. First-timers accounted for almost the same amount in June with 29%. That means there could be a significant drop in purchases when that program expires.

The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend the first-time buyer tax credit, and Nevada Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters earlier this month an extension is “something we can get done.”

With or without a tax break, consumers in this economy are looking for a bargain much like they are with retail sales and auto sales. The bulk of the first-time tax credit sales have come from lower-priced homes, and NAR data supports that. Sales of homes that cost less than $250,000 were up almost 17.8% year-over-year through June. Meanwhile, sales decreased 13.3% in the $250,000-$500,000 bracket, 18.6% in the $500,000-$1 million range, and 32.7% in the $1 million – $4 million range.

Lost pricing power in the more expensive homes wasn’t lost on Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), which last Tuesday finished its acquisition of value-priced homebuilder Centex Corp.(NYSE: CTX), making Pulte the largest homebuilder in the United States.

“I’m not seeing a tremendous amount of good news on the job or economic front, so I do think it’s important that the [tax] credit get extended,” Pulte Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas told The Associated Press.

The turn of the year isn’t likely to yield much good news on the job front. Most economists are expecting the unemployment rate to top out around 10%, and although July’s rate dipped one-tenth of a percentage point, the latest weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were discouraging, rising 15,000 to 576,000 for the week ended August 15.

“The improvement in the labor market has stalled,” Scotia Capital Inc. economist Derek Holt told Bloomberg News following the latest jobless claim figures. “Consumer spending will be pushed back on its heels for a longer time than markets are expecting.”

When the bleeding of jobs does peak, an upturn in employment could take some time as the United States experiences a jobless recovery. With an unemployment rate at or around 10%, home inventory levels could creep back in to 2008 territory.

“[The unemployment rate projection] indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period, implying a longer and slower recovery path for the unemployment rate,” Fed economists wrote.  “This suggests that, more than in previous recessions, when the economy rebounds, employers will tap into their existing work forces rather than hire new workers. This could substantially slow the recovery of the outflow rate and put upward pressure on future unemployment rates.”

Source: Home Sales Will Struggle to Rebound Without Tax Credit Extension

It has been a tough week if you have anything to do with the world of retail. Just about every company that opened its books to the Street this week got punished for the act.

The list of “disappointing” reports is getting longer by the day.

Lowes (NYSE:LOW) kicked off the week with scary-low figures. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) beat the Street but still got punished after a slew of less-than-stellar economic reports.

Outside of the home-centric sector, shares of Liz Claiborne (NYSE:LIZ) plummeted on Monday after the Standard and Poor’s cut its rating on the unprofitable retailer to B, a two-notch downgrade. The company’s rating now stands five levels below investment grade.

High-end retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) is also deep in negative territory for the week after succumbing to industry pressure and a downgrade from Susquehanna.

Obviously, the market believes a business model that focuses on trendy, expensive clothing is not a place to be during a deep, protracted recession.

And of course, there is Eddie Lampert and his Sears Holding (NYSE:SHLD). While the store may be the hideout of choice for any enslaved husband while his wife shops for new bed linens, fewer of us our purchasing the store’s products.

Shares of the company are down by double-digit proportions today after Sears announced it lost $94 million over the past three months. It is tough to make a profit when revenues are plunging by 10% (12.5 for comparable-store sales).

Essentials only investing

If consumers are not spending their money at the high-end stores or paying to fix up their house, where are they spending it? After all, there is no choice but to spend money on the essentials at the very least.

The key is understanding which retailers are stocked up on the essentials. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT) are the first to come to mind.

And guess what… shares of Target are up on the week and Wal-Mart is just slightly in negative territory.

One of the most appealing sectors of the retail market is the ultra-cheap (in price and quality) “dollar store” segment. As the market breaks out its magnifying glass in an attempt to find any signs of so-called green shoots, shares of company’s like Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO) and 99 Cents Only (NYSE:NDN) have dropped from their recent highs.

The discounting is a mistake. Today’s unexpected surge in first-time jobless claims (a jump of 15,000 claims) proves tens of thousands of American consumers are still at risk of losing their jobs. That means they won’t be shelling out their reserves any time soon.

Instead, they will continue their spendthrift shopping.

While there are sectors much more likely to hand you sizeable profits in the near future, no portfolio is healthy unless it is properly diversified.

If you need exposure to the nation’s retail market, look at the big guys like Wal-Mart and Target or the small discount retailers where a buck will buy you just about anything… but a share of the company.

Finally, if you have been playing this sector or have your eye on any big movers, your fellow readers would love to hear about it. Drop us a line and let us know your thoughts.

Source: Dangerous Retail: The Sector That Refuses to Recover

• Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index flirted with 9,200 and 2,000 yesterday (Thursday), respectively. Thanks to a continuing string of better-than-expected earnings reports, the Dow jumped 83.74 points, or  0.92% to close at 9,154.46. The tech-heavy Nasdaq eclipsed 2,000 in trading before finally settling in at 1,984.30, up 16.54, or 0.84%, its highest close since October 1. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 also posted a gain, closing at 986.75, up 11.6 or 1.19%. “Institutional and retail investors are so anxious to make up the lost returns of the last year, they are using any cue to buy aggressively,” Kevin Mahn, managing director and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh told MarketWatch.com. “We got to the point in the first quarter, when everyone was so risk averse they lost out. And, in just six months, they have now become overly aggressive.”

• U.S. taxpayers yesterday (Thursday) became Citigoup Inc.’s(NYSE: C) largest shareholder with a 34% stake in the company. The federal government swapped $25 billion of its $45 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) investment into common stock. The remaining $20 billion will remain in the form of preferred shares that pay an 8% annual dividend.

• Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 584,000 last week the Labor Department said yesterday (Thursday). However, the number of people still on benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid fell by 54,000 to 6.20 million in the week to July 18, the lowest since early April. That fueled optimism that the economy is on the mend.

• Light, sweet crude for September delivery yesterday (Thursday) rose $3.59, or 5.6%to settle at $66.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The surge left some analysts miffed, as there was no obvious motivation. “You need to really worry about a market that sells off on a very large build and supply one day, and then it rebounds on no headline at all,” analyst and trader Stephen Schork told The Associated Press.

• Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) yesterday (Thursday) posted an unexpected profit for the second quarter after several quarters of losses. Motorola said cost cuts including 8,000 layoffs so far this year were largely responsible for the turnaround. Revenue dropped 32% to $5.5 billion for the quarter, but the company reported a profit of $26 million, or 1 cent a share. That’s up from $4 million a year ago.

• The worst recession in more than 60 years is taking its toll on theWalt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) advertising and theme park revenue. The Burbank, Calif.-based company saw its net income drop to $954 million, or 51 cents a share for the quarter ended June 27. That compares to a net income of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share in the same quarter last year. Operating income from its highly seasonal theme parks dropped 19% to $521 million in the quarter, compared to last year’s $641 million, which was up 3% from 2007. Advertising on its media networks which include ESPN decreased: The operating revenue was down 13% to $1.3 billion, compared to last year’s 9% increase to $1.5 billion.

• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer weighed in on the beating his company’s new partnerYahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) took Wednesday, when investors unloaded shares to send Yahoo’s stock down more than 12%. “People haven’t figured it out,” Ballmer said. “Yahoo gets 88% of the search revenue they have today. They have 0% cost of goods sold against 88% revenue and they have no [research and development] expense and no ongoing [capital expenditure],” Ballmer said in a Dow Jones Newswires report, which cited an event at Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond, Wash. Yahoo’s Wall Street beating continued yesterday (Thursday), with its shares closing at $14.60, down 54 cents or 3.57%. Microsoft’s shares climbed 1 cent yesterday, closing at $23.81, up .04%.

• Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) made a minimum bid of $113.6 million for Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. (OTC: FRNTQ) in a bankruptcy auction that would eliminate its low-fare rival. The bid would compete with a pending offer of $108.8 million fromRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: RJET). The winning bidder will get a bigger foothold in the Rocky Mountain region. “Taking the Denver gates and equipment from Frontier would give them a large presence there, and the cities that aren’t on Southwest’s route map now could easily be integrated,” said Dave Swierenga, president of an aviation consulting firm AeroEcon toldBloomberg News.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 31, 2009

• Senate Democratic leaders late yesterday (Thursday) abandoned plans for an overhaul of the nation’s $2.4 trillion healthcare system before Congress recesses in August – dealing U.S. President Barack Obama a major political blow. The decision was delivered by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who said that “it’s better to have a product based on quality and thoughtfulness rather than try to jam something through.” The decision to reject President Obama’s ambitious timetable – he wanted a vote on the plan before Congress adjourned – had been anticipated for weeks. Sen. Reid’s comments mirrored those of Republicans, who feared the implications of a quick vote on such a politically charged issue.

• Sagging worldwide PC and server sales resulted in a 17% revenue decline and a 29% drop in Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT)fourth quarter ended June 30. The company reported a net income of $3.05 billion, or 34 cents per share on revenue of $13.1 billion, compared to a net income of $4.29 billion, or 46 cents per share on revenue of $15.83 in the same quarter last year. For the year, the software giant posted a net income of $14.56 billion, or $1.63 a share on revenue of $58.43 billion, compared to a net income of $17.68 billion, or $1.90 per share on revenue of $60.42 billion in the same quarter last year.

• Initial unemployment benefit claims in the United States grew by 30,000 to 554,000 for the week ended July 18, according to the Department of Labor. However, the less volatile four-week moving average shrank, falling by 19,000 to 566,000. “The numbers have come down but they still have a ways to go down before the bleeding of jobs is over,” said Andrew Gretzinger, a senior economist at MFC Global Investment Management in a Bloomberg News interview. “The labor market is still weak and is going to remain that for some time to come.”

• Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) has raised its target for Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) from $150 to $225 following its strong second quarter showing and impressive iPhone sales. Apple moved 5.2 million units of its lucrative iPhone, exceeding Deutsche’s projection of 5 million. Deutsche estimates iPhone margins to be roughly 60%. Another reason for Deutsche’s optimism regarding Apple is it expects the iPhone’s international reach to expand from 18 to 80 countries by the end of the September quarter, with a possible partnership with China Unicom Limited (NYSE ADR:CHU) as early as this fall, representing the iPhone’s debut in the emerging market.

• Existing home sales in June rose by 3.6% to a 4.89 million annual rate from a revised 4.72 million in May, when the number rose by 2.4% according to the National Association of Realtors. “Housing may no longer be the weakest link,” said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. “Demand has clawed itself back to where it was a year ago, a very nice signal that the market has not only hit bottom but is making its way back.” In another sign the housing market may be on the upswing, rates on fixed-rate mortgages increased this week to 5.20%, up from 5.14% last week, Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a prepared statement.

• Increasing landline cancellations and heavy iPhone subsidies contributed to a 15% drop in profit for AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The company reported a net income of $3.2 billion, or 54 cents a share on revenue of $30.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $3.8 billion, or 64 cents a share on revenue of $30.86 in the same quarter last year. The company did benefit from the new iPhone model released last month, activating 2.4 million accounts for the smartphone in the United States.

• Rising customer traffic and operating income could not helpMcDonald’s Corp.’s (NYSE: MCD) profit, which fell 8.1% in the second quarter due to currency fluctuations, the company said. The fast-food chain posted a net income of $1.09 billion, or 98 cents a share on revenue of $5.65 billion for the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $1.19 billion, or $1.04 a share on revenue of $6.08 billion in the same period last year.

• 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) suffered an 18% drop in its profit, but beat expectations due to stronger demand for electronic healthcare products in its second quarter ended June 30.  The conglomerate posted a profit of $783 million, or $1.12 a share on revenue of $5.7 billion, compared to a net income of $945 million, or $1.33 a share on revenue of $6.7 billion in the same quarter last year.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 24, 2009

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 10, 2009

Take two days off and look what happens… the recession has bottomed.

At least that’s what “they” would have you believe. While we locked ourselves in our bimonthly editorial meeting the last two days, we missed some new “the worst is over” calls. Here’s the rundown:
“The pace of economic contraction is slowing,” declared the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday after emerging from a two-day meeting of their own. Even though Mr. Bernanke and his brood say, “economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” the vibe from the FOMC statement was decidedly rosy.

Of course, inflation “will remained subdued for some time” and the group will leave rates near zero “for an extended period.” Same old story at the Federal Reserve. The rest of the Fed announcements were nonevents… new age lending programs and quantitative easing will neither increase nor decrease before their next meeting in August.
Despite all the data out this week — new and existing home sales, GDP, jobless claims — only one has given the Street a jolt: durable goods.

Orders for items meant to last a few years increased 1.8% from April to May, smashing Wall Street’s expected 0.4% growth. Never mind that orders in the first five months of 2009 are down 27% compared to 2008… May’s number is another green shoot! Hooray!

“I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily,” said Warren Buffett yesterday. “Everything that I see about the economy is that we’ve had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that’s been surmounted and that’s enormously important. But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes awhile. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still under way and it looks to me like it will be under way for quite a while. In the [Berkshire Hathaway] annual report, I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond. I’m afraid that’s true…

“I had a cataract operation on my left eye about a month ago and I thought maybe now I’ll be able to see green shoots. We’re not seeing them. Whether it’s retailing, manufacturing, wherever. We have a big utility operation. Industrial demand is down like we’ve never seen it for a simple thing like electricity. So it hasn’t happened yet. It will happen. I want to emphasize that. But it hasn’t happened yet.”
Speaking of Buffett, his annual charity lunch auction is proving to be an annual sign of the times. Last year, the oversized $2.1 million winning bid for a lunch with Buffett came from a Chinese fund manager — three times the previous year’s winning bid. This year, with only one day remaining, bids for the eBay auction are up to “just” $350,000.
The U.S. economy didn’t contract quite as much as reported in the first quarter, the Commerce Department announced today, adding to the optimistic mood. The government arm finalized first-quarter GDP numbers today. Their initial report detected a 6.1% contraction. The first revision was a 5.7% fall, and now Commerce claims the economy shrank just 5.5% in the first quarter of the year.
The OECD has drastically revised its growth expectations for the U.S.

“Signs have multiplied that U.S. activity could bottom out in the course of the second half of this year,” said Jorgen Elmeskov, the OECD’s acting chief economist. The group now forecasts a 2.8% U.S. economic contraction in 2009 and 0.9% growth in 2010 — a huge revision from their most recent call of a 4% decline this year and zero growth in 2010.
As far as the stock market goes, we timed our two-day break well… since Monday’s swift sell-off, major indexes have gone nowhere. Despite all the data and the latest FOMC meeting, the Dow sank 0.2% Tuesday and 0.3% yesterday… yawn… stretch.
“This sideways trade for the last few weeks is typical of summer markets,” writes our commodities trader Alan Knuckman, “even in an anything but a typical year for investors. Everyone is so conditioned for strong moves in either direction it has left many unable to handle an undefined trend.

“The stall has disappointed many market watchers — with some calling for a new downturn. Over my years I have found it better to follow the trend without trying to catch the turn. Don’t be too proud to miss some of it. Most of the money is made in the middle of a trend, and that’s where we’ll stay here at Resource Trader Alert.

“Volume seems light and something is needed to spark movement after the large bull run. The S&P 500 channel — with lows last week at the 899 level (as a support level) and highs at 925-plus — is an area to watch closely for future clues. At the same time, Treasury bond futures weekly highs at 117 and lows at 114 have held traders in check. The breakout for either asset class will light the way down the future path for the markets.

“For now, let’s wait and see what trend develops. Have some wine, and let the market sort things out.”

When the next trend emerges, will you know what to do? Have Alan be your guide, here… at Resource Trader Alert.

(For a closer look into the psyche of our resource trader, be sure to check out today’s P.S.)
Commodities have succumbed to selling pressure. Since peaking at $987 in late May, gold has been in a state of steady decline. It found a temporary bottom early this week at $919 an ounce and has since inched back up to $935.

Oil fell from a recent high of $72 a barrel to as low as $66 this week. While the front-month contract has recovered to about $68 this morning, we detect a dark cloud forming over the sector.
“Oil had a strong climb,” reports Byron King, “and pushed up over $70 per barrel just a few weeks ago. Then oil met with market resistance. So the price of oil retreated into the current $60 range. Could oil go lower? Yes, at least in the short term. Oil could drop back into the $50s, despite its traditional strength during the summer driving season. You might see gasoline prices pull back 10-20 cents per gallon, which will make that trip to the gas station a buck or two cheaper.

“A pullback like that in oil prices will take the steam out of recent stock market gains for oil producers and oil services. So if you want to take any oil profits, now is probably a good time.

“No, this is not a sell recommendation for the oil sector, or any company in the energy side of the Outstanding Investments portfolio. What I’m saying is that we might have a pullback in an otherwise long-term, generally rising trend for energy. Thus, if you are of a trading mind, then take your recent energy gains now. Book some profit, and hold onto the cash for later buying opportunities. Otherwise, don’t be shocked if the energy stocks take a summer swoon.

“Longer term? Oil is headed upward in price. That’s just plain baked into the cake. Half of the world’s daily oil use is now going to developing countries. And by definition, developing countries are… developing. They are using more and more oil, or how else do you think they are developing? So even if oil use in the developed world just stays flat, that oil will still find a market.”

Outstanding Investments remains one of the greatest values of our industry. If you’re not a subscriber, get with the program,here.
The U.S. housing market is back to underperforming expectations. We saw the latest existing home sales and new home sales numbers this week — both failed to meet the Street’s forecast.

The National Association of Realtors reported 2.4% growth in existing home sales Tuesday, to an annual rate of 4.7 million. The stock market — no longer satisfied with meager housing growth — wanted a rate of 4.9 million and suffered a small sell-off.

Even though sales managed to increase in back-to-back months for the first time since 2005, existing home prices are still plummeting, distressed sales are still booming and the market is still saturated with a 9.6-month supply of homes… a positive sign that the free market still works, but hardly reason to call a bottom.
And new home sales are still slipping into the abyss.Sales of new houses fell another 0.6%, to a 342,000 annual rate, the Commerce Department said yesterday. That’s down 32.8% from last year — we hasten to add, a time when the housing market was already in the dumps. Making matters worse, Wall Street analysts were calling for a 2% rise in new home sales. And like existing home sales, the price of new homes is still falling (down another 3%, to $221,600), and inventory is still at a lofty 10-month supply.

Check out this chart of new versus existing home sales. Both have historically moved in near lock step, with the exception of last two years. If this trend is destined for a “regression to the mean,” we wouldn’t be surprised to see new home sales level out and existing sales take a turn for the worse.

The dollar’s still stuck in a range. The dollar index took a quick trip below the infamous 80 score yesterday after the FOMC’s announcement, but has since climbed back up to 80.6… not far from where it’s been for the last two weeks.
Today’s “take it for what it’s worth” dollar quote, from IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard:

“For the U.S., it is absolutely no question that a sustained recovery has to come from a large increase in exports, that may not be very easy to do. This may require fairly substantial adjustments in the dollar.” Hmm…
“I’m a raving fan of The 5, but come on,” writes a reader, referring to Monday’s issue, “couldn’t you muster a better defense of capitalism to the latest apologist?

“It is not capitalism that allowed derivatives and excessive debt levels. It is the distortion of a fractional reserve fiat currency system that is a statist addition to it that did. In a free market with a gold standard, every security bought must be funded with actual value, rather than leverage levels being allowed to explode. It is the printing press, credit creation and the statist monetary system, and not capitalism, that is the source of this crisis.”

The 5: Heh, well, there you have it.

P.S. We feel obligated to share this photo with you, if only to legitimize Addison’s recent iPhone purchase. During our marathon editorial meeting yesterday at 14 West, the fire alarm sounded. The whole building cleared out to a nearby park. Most were content with a break… we’d been vetting our ideas nonstop for the last few hours, and the alarm was a welcome excuse to relax, grab some coffee, have a smoke, etc.

Not for Alan Knuckman, editor of Resource Trader Alert. We didn’t ask how many trades he managed to fire off during the 10-minute alarm, but it was quite clear that he was in the zone. You can take the man out of Chicago… but don’t expect him to stop trading:

Curbside commodity options, fueled by Big Gulp

P.P.S. Did you learn from 2008? If so, you’re actively seeking ways to hedge your portfolio from another market fall. We’ve gathered our favorite strategies for playing the next bear market here, in our latest special report.

Source: Bernanke’s Forecast, Buffett’s Green Shoots, Can’t Miss Data, Taking Oil Profits and More!

• Unemployment claims unexpectedly rose yesterday (Thursday), asthe number of U.S. workers filing new claims jumped by 15,000 in the week ended June 20 to a seasonally adjusted 627,000, the Labor Department reported. The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, rose to 617,250 from 616,750, signaling the U.S. job market is stagnant.

• U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 5.5% annual rate in the first quarter after plunging at a 6.3% pace in the fourth quarter of 2008, the Commerce Department said yesterday (Thursday). That means the U.S. economy just went through itsworst eight-month period in more than 60 years, according toMarketWatch. The government last month estimated GDP fell at a 5.7% pace in the quarter ended March 31.

• American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) will repay part of its $40 billion debt to the U.S. government with $25 billion of preferred stock in two businesses Reuters reported. The two businesses – American International Assurance Co Ltd (AIA) and American Life Insurance Co (Alico) – will also be positioned for initial public offerings, should market conditions permit. AIG lost more than $99 billion in 2008 and U.S. taxpayers have committed up to about $180 billion to its rescue.

• Palm Inc.’s (Nasdaq: PALM) losses grew but it beat Wall Street’s revenue estimates for its quarter ended May 31. The company reported a net loss of $91.5 million, or 78 cents per share on revenues of $86.7 million. That compares to a net loss of $41 million, or 40 cents per share on revenue of $296.1 million for the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting a loss of 62 cents per share on revenues of $80.6 million.

• Memory chipmaker Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) suffered a wider loss but beat analyst estimates for its quarter ended June 4. The company posted a net loss of $290 million, or 36 cents per share on revenues of $1.1 billion. That compares to a net loss of $236 million, or 30 cents per share on revenues of $1.4 billion in the same period the year before. Consensus estimates placed the loss at 43 cents per share on revenues of $1.1 billion.

• A key senator said the health care proposal submitted to Congress by the Obama administration could cost as much as $1 trillion, but Republicans added there was no agreement on even the outlines of a bill, The Associated Press reported. “We have options that would enable us to write a $1 trillion bill, fully paid for,” Sen. Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, told reporters. Baucus’ comments came one week after analysts estimated earlier proposals would cost $1.6 trillion over 10 years. While Baucus gave no details, others told The AP changes made in the proposal would lower the cost of government subsidies for those who cannot afford insurance, as well as scale back a planned 10-year series of rate increases for doctors serving Medicare patients. Almost 50 million Americans are without health coverage.

• Michigan has won a competition with two other states to buildGeneral Motors Corp.’s (OTC: GMGMQ) next subcompact car, based on the Chevrolet Spark, The Associated Press reported. The win will save about 1,200 jobs at the factory in Orion Township, which was due to close this year. All 17 members of Michigan’s congressional delegation sent a letter to GM last week saying that the state’s economic woes — including an unemployment rate that hit 14.1% in May — made the project important for Michigan.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday June 26,2009

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 26.2 points, or 0.32% as of 11:00 a.m. today (Thursday), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 4.58 points, or 0.52%.

The surge was prompted by an increase in U.S. wholesale prices, which allayed concern over deflation. Producer prices rose 0.3% in April after falling 1.2% in March. Food prices posted the biggest gain, soaring 1.5% – enough to offset a 0.1% fall in energy prices. Excluding food and fuel prices, so-called core-prices climbed 0.1%.

The rise in producer prices accompanied an increase in import prices, which climbed 1.6% in April, the government said yesterday. Producer prices and the cost of imports comprise two of the three major gauges of inflation. The third measure of inflation, consumer prices, is scheduled for release tomorrow.

The rise in U.S. equities was further supported by a solid earnings report from Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer. Wal-Mart posted a profit of $3 billion, or 77 cents a share, in the quarter ended April 30, up from 76 cents a year earlier, matching analysts’ forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters.

Net sales for the quarter fell 0.6% to $93.4 billion, but the company blamed that decline on the negative impact of a stronger dollar, which dented international sales. Wal-Mart’s international operating income fell 16.2% to $880 million on an 11.1% drop in sales to $21.3 billion.

However, international operating income at constant exchange rates was $1.13 billion in the three months ended April 30 on sales of $26.1 billion.

“In almost every country we grew the top line faster than the market despite the strong dollar and a recession that is even deeper in some countries than it is in the United States,” said chief executive Mike Duke.

Wal-Mart’s resilience offered a modicum of comfort to the retail sector after a report yesterday showed retail sales fell 0.4% in April, the eighth monthly decline in the last 10 months. Retail sales tumbled 1.3% in March.

Retail sales have been badly battered by a sharp rise in unemployment. And data from the Labor Department today furthered illustrated the frailty of the current labor market.

Initial claims for unemployment rose by 32,000 to 637,000 in the week ended May 9, from a revised 605,000 the week prior, the Labor Department said.

The economy has shed about 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Payrolls fell by 539,000 in April, as the jobless rate climbed to 8.9% – its highest level since 1983.

Source: Producer Prices and Wal-Mart Results Give the Market Edge Over Weak Jobs Data