Just yesterday (Monday), in fact, U.S. heavy-equipment giant Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) announced it was cutting executive compensation by as much as 50%, because of weakening global demand.

But let’s be very clear: U.S. corporate leaders still have a long way to go, and many lessons to learn.

In fact, American executives could learn a thing or two from some of their counterparts abroad. Just look at Haruka Nishimatsu, CEO of Japan Airlines Corp for example (OTC ADR: JALSY).

Each morning, Nishimatsu gets down to business immediately after his morning commute to the office – on a city bus.

His desk – like those of all the other Japan Airlines employees – sits in the middle of an “open office.” I know this from personal experience, having sat at a desk just like that when I’ve worked in Japan over the years. He eats lunch in the company cafeteria and hopes – like all Japanese employees – that he’ll have time to eat his meal before it gets cold as he stands in line waiting to pay, says CNN’s Kyung Lah.

This hardly sounds like the life of a corporate CEO, especially when you consider that JAL is one of the world’s top airlines. Nor does the fact that when JAL cut back and asked many of its employees to take early retirement, Nishimatsu first eliminated every one of his own corporate perks, including his own pay – which, at a mere $90,000 (U.S.), is below what JAL’s pilots get paid.

Nishimatsu noted in the CNN interview that many of the affected employees were about his age, 60, so he “thought he should share the pain with them.”

Obviously, that’s very different than in the United States, where top executives regularly make tens of millions of dollars a year, and where some compensation packages actually eclipse the hundred-million-dollar threshold. And some of the top earners are the very same executives who “managed” their companies into financial oblivion – and who took their trusting shareholders along for the ride.

If you want to see the latest example, just watch the parade of corporate-jet-riding, custom-suit-wearing corporate “beggars” that have been appearing (hat in hand) before the House Financial Services committee lately and you’ll see what I mean.

The pay gap between the boardroom and the factory floor – already a longtime topic of controversy here in the United States – has widened to the point that it’s become absolutely staggering. According to a survey conducted by the non-profit group, United for a Fair Economy, CEOs of large corporations made an average of $10.5 million in 2007, which is 344 times the wages of the average U.S. worker. The Economic Policy Institute puts it at only 275 times higher, which is still outrageous when you consider that the average working stiff won’t see in his lifetime what these guys have made in a year lately.

[To see how that disparity has grown over the past four decades, look at the accompanying chart, “Leaders vs. Workers”]

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) CEO Richard D. Fairbank took home a cool $73.1 million last year, which is 1,456 times the median household income of $50,233 for taxpayers footing Capital One’s $3.55 billion bailout, according to The Corporate Library.

In Japan – and throughout much of Asia, for that matter – there’s a much more balanced approach, with CEOs more commonly making only 10 times to 15 times more than their base level employees.

“Businesses that pursue money first fail,” Yoshichika Terasawa, a Singapore-based managing director for the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) told me when we spoke at his home in that Southeast Asia city-state earlier this year. “Companies that have their employees in mind tend to do better longer and recover faster. We learned that in Japan during our own bubble economy.”

The numbers seem to bear out Terasawa’s assertion. According to a USA Today study, the 10 best-paid CEOs made more than half a billion dollars collectively. Yet, half the members of this stratospheric club were actually heading companies whose profits shrank dramatically.

The poster boy for this club could well be General Motors Corp. (GM) CEO G. Richard “Rick” Wagoner Jr., who closed four plants and posted a $39 billion loss in 2007, a period in which his company’s stock cratered 19%. But in the face of this financial mess, Wagoner’s compensation jumped 64% to reach $15.7 million.
And GM apparently had a little something set aside; after all, Wagoner was able to take a corporate jet to Washington to plead for a taxpayer-funded bailout.

[For a breakdown on the top-earning CEOs of 2007, take a look at the accompanying graphic, “Top of the Charts.”]
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The numbers, when they’re in for 2008 will probably be more egregious.

JAL’s Nishimatsu clearly understands what his U.S. corporate brethren do not. As the global economy has worsened in recent months, the Japanese executive recounted how he’s dug into his savings like the rest of us have had to, in order to deal with life’s challenges.
“The air conditioner broke, the water heater … and my car,” Nishimatsu said. “My wife is still telling me this is all your fault.”

We can certainly sympathize with him. But clearly, he can sympathize with us. Making the effort to relate to what employees and customers are feeling during such a difficult stretch is very important: It fosters pride in the work force, loyalty from customers and in long long-run, will also win over investors. My guess is that we’ll all be the most sympathetic and supportive of companies led by CEOs like Nishimatsu.

And that might be just what’s needed to get out of this mess.

Source: U.S. CEOs Could Learn From Their Asian Counterparts

This strange exercise in financial kabuki theater will shut down sometime between the election and inauguration day, when the inaugurate finds himself president of the Economic Smoking Wreckage of the United States. What will happen?

I have thought for some time that things could get dangerously out of hand in America, despite our exceptionalist notion that we are immune to the common plot-lines of history. For starters, inauguration night will seem more like Halloween, as those two little words fly in to haunt the new president. So, a large and looming question is: Who will be appointed the next attorney general of the U.S. (to replace the human sash-weight currently occupying the office), and how soon will the federal marshals be scouring the wainscoted hallways of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), not to mention a thousand Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge fund boiler rooms, with man-sized nets?

A storyline is already emerging to the effect that these birds really didn’t quite know what they were doing in grinding out that multi-trillion dollar basket of alphabet securities sausage (a theme on Sunday’s 60 Minutes broadcast). Nobody will buy that line of BS, though — and certainly not in the courtroom where, for instance, Mr. Hank Paulson will have to answer why his own firm of Goldman Sachs set up a special unit to short its own issues. It will be edifying to see how they answer.

In the meantime, however, millions of Joe-the-Plumber types will have gotten their pink slips, slipped helplessly into foreclosure, watched the repo men hot-wire their Ford (NYSE:F) pickups, and eaten down the kitchen cupboard to a single box of Kellogg’s (NYSE:K)  All-Bran (which had been sitting there for eleven years infested with weevils). They will be watching the official proceedings in the federal courtrooms with jaundiced eyes as they hunch in their tent cities, in the rain, sipping amateur-brand raisin wine bartered for a few snared rock doves. How long before the hardier ones among them venture out to Easthampton with long knives and matches?

It will bring little satisfaction though, and the disappointment could lead to a more inchoate outbreak of civil disorder that would be more like a free-for-all of vengeance and grievance. There will be a great outcry for the new government to “do something!” Perhaps that will finally bring the troops home from Iraq — only for them to find that the Homeland has become Iraq….

If the financial system completes its self-destruction — and that’s looking more and more like a real possibility — there will be several pretty awful consequences. One is that the United States will be forced to declare bankruptcy by repudiating its own debt. All those who took refuge in U.S. Treasury bonds and bills will be like folks who sought shelter from a tornado in their out-house.

That would go hand-in-hand with a massive currency inflation that is likely to follow the current phase of compressive liquidating deflation — in which every possible asset is being sold off for less than its face value. That process is self-limiting due to the finite supply of real salable assets. The trillions of dollars injected into the system while this is happening must eventually snap-back as people shed the last fungible article and compete for necessary commodities like food and fuel with dollars that are suddenly plentiful but worthless.

At some point, the government may have to summon up a new currency. I don’t think it will be anything like the “Amero” which the paranoid fringe incessantly mutters about as part of their fantasy in which the U.S., Mexico, and Canada all join up to become one country. But any “new dollar” would probably have to be backed by gold.

As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: “the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy.” That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.

This means especially oil. I hope you’re enjoying the temporarily cheap prices at the gas pumps, because this is purely a function of the compressive deleveraging that is going on right now, as contracts and positions held in energy markets are being dumped by everybody and his uncle to raise cash to meet margin calls. My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead — not just more expensive, but literally not available. The current falling price of oil has little to do with the real supply and demand fundamentals. It’s simply a function of the markets being in near-total disarray. We’re running on current inventory, and running it down.

In the background, all kinds of peculiar and terrible things are happening. The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is being thrown out of whack. The smaller tanker operations are going bankrupt. The “less-developed” nations are heading back to the 17th-century level of daily life without electricity. The oil exploration and development projects that were planned for hard-to-get oil netting $100-a-barrel minimum — in places like the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and Central Asia — are being shelved, which means the world has less of a chance to offset coming depletions in old fields.

The bottom line of all this is that we in the U.S. could find ourselves in a situation of shortages, hoarding, and rationing. This would pretty much kill off whatever remains of the previous shuck-and-jive economy — hamburger sales, theme park visits, NASCAR weekends — while it makes obvious the failures of our suburban living arrangements (and drives the value of housing there closer to zero).

My pet project of restoring the American passenger railroad system might seem pretty minor in the face of all this, but it’s at least a place to start that will accomplish several things: allow people and things to get places without cars and trucks; put many thousands of people to work at many levels doing something of direct, practical value; and be a small step in rebuilding confidence that we are a society capable of accomplishing something.

Source: Easthampton Burning?

Well, it appears that the feds are losing the battle. We have the ’stag’…but no ‘flation.’ All over the world, in almost every sector of the economy, prices are falling. Inflation is on the run – or so it appears today.

Housing prices are on the decline in America, Britain, Australia, Ireland, and Spain. We don’t know about other markets. They are said to be still rising in Brazil and other emerging markets. But we wouldn’t bet on it.

Commodity prices have been going down for about two months. After hitting a high of $147, oil has slipped all the way down to $114.

Stock markets are down all over the world. Most indices are off 15% to 20% for the year, except for China, which has been cut in half.

Even the dollar is showing signs of deflation – it’s going up! Not only are the things it buys becoming cheaper, it is also gaining ground against its archenemy, the euro. Yesterday, the euro fell below $1.50.

“The inflation rate is going to come down,” said an economist at Lehman Bros. (NYSE:LEH) Most economists agree. And so do investors. TIPS are U.S. Treasury notes that are adjusted to inflation. Investors pay a premium for them in order to get the protection of the feds’ inflation adjustment. Thus, the yield spread between these notes and regular 10-year Treasuries is a good measure of how much inflation investors expect. And currently, the yield has dropped to its lowest point in nearly five years.

What is the reason for this stunning defeat of inflation? How come the central banks and financial authorities aren’t better at what they do best? The latest numbers we have show them trying hard. Money supplies worldwide are increasing at about 20% per year – five times faster than the rate of economic growth. According to theory, if the supply of money increases faster than supplies of goods and services inflation will result. Is the theory wrong? Or is something else is going on?

Yes, something else is going on. The world economy is cooling off. After running so hot for so long, a chill wind is blowing. It began almost exactly a year ago – on August 9, 2007 – when the subprime story broke. First, the homeowners got in trouble. And then, the builders. And then the lenders. And then the investors who lent to the lenders. The problem mounted up the financial ladder like a crusader scaling the walls of Constantinople.

For a long time, it looked as though the go-go economies of the Far East…and the commodity producers…would be able to hold them off. The world economy had “decoupled,” it was said – with the emerging economies continuing to grow while the old economies of Europe and North America were in a slump. With this huge new demand in front of them, commodities markets continued to move higher…even as stock markets and housing sank.

But now, it looks as though nothing will be spared. Everything is going down. Gold, stocks, property, copper, inflation, GDP growth rates, consumer spending, car sales, student financing, employment, house sales, housing prices – everything.

And against all this… the dollar is going up.

But what does it mean? Well, no one knows… (still, we offer a “what if” below…)

Expansions are typically inflationary. Contractions are typically deflationary. But we knew that. What we didn’t know was whether there would be enough juice in the emerging markets to keep the world economy growing…

…and whether the feds could effectively re-inflate – with their bailouts, handouts, and monetary cop-outs. The answer to those questions seems to be ‘no.’ But the matter is far from settled. No economist has ever seen a world money system such as the one we have now. No one knows how it will react to the stress of a major contraction. So, we’ll hold onto our gold a bit longer… and wait to see what happens next.

Source: Inflation on the Run

“The role of finance in the economy is going to come down significantly in the coming years,” Carlos Asilis, chief investment officer at New Jersey money manager Glovista Investments, tells the Wall Street Journal. “From a societal standpoint, we got carried away with finance.”

Wags might wonder if the Journal is deliberately playing down finance in keeping with its new emphasis on general news and especially politics now that it’s an arm of the Murdochtopus.   But as the paper rightly notes, “The trend already has hurt companies beyond banks and Wall Street firms. General Electric Co.’s first-quarter profits at its financial-services businesses were 21% lower than a year earlier.

Retailer Target Corp., which got 13% of its before-tax profit last year from credit cards, last month wrote off $55.5 million in credit-card loans, 8.1% of its total portfolio at an annualized rate.”

“I think you’re seeing a clear inflection point,” says Tom Gallagher, an ISI Group analyst. “Whether it’s financials as a share of the stock market or financials as a share of GDP, we’ve peaked.”

Indeed, the financials now account for over 21% of the S&P 500’s market cap.  That’s less than the 34% that technology represented at the height of the tech bubble in 2000, but the Journal is already calling the top.

For finance workers, this shift could resemble the 1980s, when manufacturing lost its pole position in the U.S. labor market and thousands found that skills they had honed over the years were less marketable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already counts 60,000 fewer people working in finance than a year ago. Merrill Lynch & Co. is cutting 4,000 jobs, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is cutting 1,425. Many of Bear Stearns Cos.’ 14,000 employees are expected to lose their jobs when J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. swallows the firm.

Left unaddressed in the article is this most uncomfortable of questions: If our manufacturing sector has been hollowed out and shipped off to Asia on the assumption that “we think, they sweat”… and if even our think-work in the tech sector has been abandoned because moving money around was much more interesting and lucrative… what happens now that moving money around has lost its luster?

I’m not sure of the answer, but the fate of empires past has hung on similar questions.

That concern came into particularly sharp focus last week, when Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS AG, said it expected to write off a staggering US$40 billion in sub-prime losses.

So far, financial regulators have succeeded in preventing a widespread banking panic. The closest we’ve come to that nightmare scenario is in the United Kingdom, where the government nationalized Northern Rock Bank after a run on the bank by depositors last September. Not to mention last month’s mysterious acquisition by JP Morgan-Chase of Bear Stearns.

It remains to be seen whether regulators can continue to sweep multi-billion-dollar portfolio problems under the rug through expanded borrowings, selective capital injections, or further nationalizations. But if you have substantial assets in any bank – either abroad or in your home country – you don’t want to wait for the regulators to act. You should take action now to evaluate how safe your assets really are in your accounts.

The assets in your account at any bank are either on or off the bank’s balance sheet. If your assets are on the bank’s balance sheet, and the bank becomes insolvent, then your assets are at risk. Your funds may or may not be protected by a national deposit insurance scheme. If they’re not, you’re simply another unsecured creditor of the bank.

Assets that are on the bank’s balance sheet include checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts the bank operates, “unallocated” holdings of precious metals, and (at some banks) CDs. The basic operating account for a bank (called a current account, giro account, or other names) is also on the balance sheet. At offshore private banks, this operating account is the springboard for all other investments.

When you purchase securities – stocks, bonds, etc. – through your offshore account, the bank establishes a “safe custody” account for these investments. Those assets are off the bank’s balance sheet. Precious metals the bank holds for you in “allocated” storage are also off its balance sheet.

Naturally, investments in safe custody are subject to market risk, but they won’t be affected if the bank becomes insolvent. However, if your offshore bank goes belly up, it will likely be part of a larger economic catastrophe that would decrease the value of any securities portfolio. Also, there may be a period of time where the securities an insolvent bank holds in safe custody can’t be traded.

I’ll be discussing additional ways to protect yourself from catastrophic losses in your bank accounts, both domestic and offshore, in an upcoming issue of The Sovereign Individual, the members-only newsletter for The Sovereign Society.

MARK NESTMANN, Privacy Expert &
President of The Nestmann Group
www.nestmann.com

Last Wednesday, a bunch of peeved mortgagees protesting government favoritism in the Bear Stearns case entered the lobby of the company’s (soon-to-be-former) headquarters building in midtown Manhattan. While it might not seem like much, I view the symbolic “penetration” of this corporate stronghold as the very first sign of a much broader citizen revolt against the extraordinary protections being shown to crapped-out investment banker boyz – at the expense of millions of equally crapped-out poor shlubs facing the default and re-po of their McDwelling places.

Occupying an office-building lobby peacefully in broad daylight is one thing. Wait until summer gets underway and The New York Post gossip page resumes its coverage of hijinks in the Hamptons. The executives of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan / Chase, and other dealers in fraudulent securities, plus the art world and show biz glitteratti who party together out there, might all find themselves the object of considerable grievance and resentment as the beaching season ramps up, and the limos roll around the charity lobster roasts, and the guests stray down the lawns, chardonnays in hand, to plot divorce from their over-leveraged husbands…. God knows what seekers-of-vengeance will be creepy-crawling the privet plantings along Gin Lane in the crepuscular gloom, searching for trophy wives to garrote.

Perhaps a bankrupt landscaping contractor from Lake Ronkonkoma, recently stiffed by a hedge fund manager over the installation of a half acre of pachysandra, will be arrested on the Wantagh Highway with blood on his sleeves and a high-C piano wire in his pocket. The non-Hampton precincts of Long Island, which make up more than 90 percent of the fish-shaped appendage to New York State, will be full of angry repo victims, and the Hamptons lie at the very dead-end tail of the geographical fish. Will the banker boyz attempt to flee by yacht? And where might they escape to? Newport, Rhode Island? Labrador?

I maintain, of course, that the media (and the public itself) has no idea how quickly things might get weird in this country – or how weird they might get.

Now bear with me while I shift gears. [Recently,] I went to a pretty major environmental conference put on by the Aspen Institute in their odd little mountain town – and nobody needs to tell me how un-correct it was that I flew all the way out to Denver and then drove a rent-a-car the size of a humpback whale deep into the heart of the Rocky Mountains to attend this thing. (I assure you, I wasn’t paid to go.) The Institute grounds – which looked like the set of a 1950s Raymond Massey movie about the future – were thick with many eminentissimos of Climate Change (minus Al Gore) and activists in “green” politics, more generally. The latest frightful measurements of retreating glaciers, vanishing species, and creeping deserts were proffered and everybody was suitably impressed by the acceleration of scary conditions facing the human race.

Being such a formal conference, though, with the putative mission to advance understanding and set agendas-for-action, a great effort was made through the medium of panel discussions to set forth various “initiatives” to deal with all the scariness, especially by enlisting the agencies of the U.S. government – and most especially with the prospect of a new administration sweeping out the detritus of Bush-dom next January.

I confess I found most of these well-intentioned proposals utterly implausible, along with their trains of hopes, wishes, and fantasies. The main conceit is that we can keep all the normal operations of the American Dream humming by some “non-carbon” related energy source – in other words, run Wal-Mart without oil, methane gas, or coal – and that all the forces of government and capital can be marshaled to make that happen. The secondary conceit is that they would accomplish these things in an orderly process, harnessing “new technology,” as though it were a higher sort of school science fair.

My own opinion is that these birds have the scale issue wrong. The exigencies of the Long Emergency imply that virtually everything organized at the grand scale will tend to wobble and fail as the problems of energy scarcity and climate change converge. Institutions from the federal government to Wal-Mart to the University of Arizona will face increasing impotence, incompetence, and bankruptcy. Vesting our hopes in propping up activities run at that scale is bound to be disappointing, to say the least, and the precursor to social upheaval to go a bit further. There’s probably a lot we can do at the finer and more modest scale, but that is not the scale that conferences like this focus on – in particular because so many of the participants are current or former high-up government wonks themselves. Anyway, the scale of global distress tends, by plain inference, to invoke the wish for global “solutions,” however detached from reality they may be.

At the center of all this conferencing was the movement’s lead eco-guru, Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), located just up Highway 82 from Aspen. Lovins’s long-running emblematic project with that outfit is something they call the “hyper-car,” a car that gets such supernaturally great mileage that it will save the human race’s threatened Happy Motoring program from extinction. The hyper-car program, which RMI still trumpets to this day, has, of course, the unintended consequence of promoting future car dependency – which is about the last thing that America needs – but that hasn’t prevented RMI from pushing it. Beyond that, Lovins’s RMI program-for-America resembles an actuarial exercise in “carbon credits” and other statistics-based fantasies aimed at inducing theoretically rational behavior among the Wal-Mart executives (and “greening” up Wal-Mart has been another of RMI’s consulting projects – I’m not kidding).

Here lies my third dissent from what I heard at the conference: since America is bankrupting itself so comprehensively at every level, the wished-for “funding” for the green rescue program will not be there in any case. Capital, as represented by Wall Street, is itself flying to pieces this year as its stock-in-trade of paper certificates loses legitimacy in the face of the overwhelming fact that the society behind that paper will be decreasingly capable of producing surplus wealth – which is what capital is. The unwind of “positions” now underway among the big bankz is the process of previously anticipated capital accumulation vanishing down a black hole. It will be gone forever.

This is the year we find that out. Bear Stearns was not the only sick puppy in the kennel. When another one wobbles and crashes, will the Federal Reserve step in again and accept its worthless CDO paper as collateral on another $30 billion loan, and another, and another, and so on? And will the individual mortgage default homeowner shlubs just watch all this go down on CNBC without any action beyond “penetrating” the lobby of a Manhattan skyscraper? I don’t think so. What goes down in the Hamptons will go down in Aspen, too.

Regards,

James Kunstler
for The Daily Reckoning

Editor’s Note: James Kunstler has worked as a reporter and feature writer for a number of newspapers, and finally as a staff writer for Rolling Stone Magazine. In 1975, he dropped out to write books on a full-time basis.