• Canada posted 0.4% economic growth for the month of April, after falling in the red for the first three months of the year – its first negative quarter in five years. Economists warned this rebound isn’t forward looking, as U.S. demand is still low amid the subprime credit fallout and high gasoline costs, Bloomberg reported.

• Tax preparing leader H&R Block Inc. (HRB) said yesterday (Monday) that it posted 11% revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, a dramatic shift from its previous quarterly loss. The company benefited from the sale of its Option One mortgage servicing business to Wilbur Ross in April, Reuters reported.

• Battle Creek, Mich.-based cereal maker Kellogg Co. (K) said yesterday (Monday) that it acquired China-based Zhenghang Food Company Ltd., a cookie and cracker maker. The purchase will give a big boost to Kellogg’s efforts to expand its product line in the emerging Chinese market, Reuters reported.

• Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) will plunk down $1.1 billion to develop a hydrocarbon gas processing plant and pipeline infrastructure in West Texas, part of an agreement with SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD). Occidental Petroleum will own and operate the facility, and said would expand production by a minimum of 50,000 barrels of oil per day, MarketWatch reported.

• Anheuser Busch (BUD) rejected InBev NV’s $46.3 billion takeover and announced a strategic cost-savings plan. The company will cut 10%-15% of its salaried workforce through early retirement and attrition. A memo obtained by Reuters called the changes “difficult, but necessary.”

• Inflation in the 15-nation Eurozone hit 4% in June, the highest level in more than 16 years, Bloomberg reported. The increase makes a rate hike by the European Central Bank at its July 3 meeting a near certainty.

• Dubai World and Roskommunenergo, an energy trader whose chairman is the son of a senior Kremlin official, offered to buy the biggest Russian power producer for $5.3 billion. The acquisition by Dubai World would be the first in the Russian energy industry by a Gulf investor, Bloomberg reported.

• Meat producer Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) announced yesterday (Monday) that it acquired a 51% stake in Godrej Foods Ltd., a poultry processing business in India. Tyson said the joint venture will be called Godrej Tyson Foods, the Associated Press reported. The company expects annual sales to be in the range of $50 million and will likely grow as operations expand.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Still, a few prominent players are set to report this week led by The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) (entertainment), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) (tech), and American International Group Inc. (AIG) (financial services).

The Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)/Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) (and occasionally Google Inc. (GOOG)) soap opera will be worth watching – if only to make sure that Microsoft’s withdrawal isn’t a cover ploy for a hostile run at Yahoo [For a related news story in this issue of Money Morning that details Microsoft’s decision drop its pursuit of Yahoo, please click here].

A slow schedule on this week’s economic calendar will prompt a much greater focus on the dollar as investors speculate on whether the price run-up in commodities – and oil – is at, or near its end. Gold prices will help make that determination [For a related news analysis of gold prices in this issue of Money Morning, please click here].

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to address the Columbia Business School on mortgage issues, though he’ll surely also be asked about central bank policies by a rapt audience whose members will hang on his every word. [Wasn’t he supposed to be on vacation?]

Last week’s earnings saw some energy companies that were benefiting from the most recent surge in energy prices. Though Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) only claimed the second-highest profit ever (it also holds the title for the single best quarter ever), the results nevertheless disappointed Wall Street, which was obviously pulling for a new record.

Likewise, Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP PLC (BP) reported favorable periods. In the wake of the recent initial public offering (IPO) of credit-card processor Visa Inc. (V), rival MasterCard Inc. (MA) doubled its earnings last quarter as its international business helped overcome domestic weakness. Consumer-products giant The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) also received good news from overseas with higher sales of consumer goods like diapers (Pampers), razors (Gillette), and shampoo (Head & Shoulders) from certain emerging markets.

Not all was rosy, however, as Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA) and food giants Kellogg Co. (K) and new Warren Buffet favorite Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) each fell prey to the continued economic “challenges” in the U.S. market.

On the transactional front, investor Kirk Kerkorian will boost his stake in Ford Motor Co. (F), in turn a nice boost for the domestic auto industry. Time Warner Inc. (TWX) will be spinning off its 84% stake in its cable operation, Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC).

And privately held M&M’s-maker Mars Inc. will buy Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. (WWY) for over $20 billion in cash with financing help from famed sweet-tooth junkie, Warren Buffett.

Market Matters

Recession? What recession? For days, weeks, even months now, naysayers had been predicting the emergence of that dreaded “R” word with the release of 1st quarter GDP. Additionally, they claimed that the labor picture would continue to worsen, gas prices would hit $4 a gallon by summer, the dollar would be worth next to nothing, corporate earnings would signal more “gloom and doom,” and high-net-worth investors would be making dramatic allocation shifts from the “risky” equity markets.

Not so fast … the data released last week appeared to portray an economy closer to a rebound – far from the dire business climate the gloom-and-doomers had been predicting. A stronger dollar that may have placed a ceiling on oil (and other commodities) prices, and rich folks seemed to be looking for bargains in stocks.

Do we here at Money Morning buy into that totally bullish scenario?

Not necessarily.

But we do agree that the next few days, weeks, and months are going to get more interesting.

The latest Fidelity Investment’s Millionaire Outlook reported (mildly) bullish findings among its surveyed investors who have average investable assets topping $4 million. Instead of decreasing their equity allocations, 27% of these millionaires plan to add stock positions during the next 12 months. Only 7% expect to sell out of equities, which logically deduces 66% will be staying the course. Real estate seems to be another “favored” asset class, as 14% of respondents say they will increase exposure to related investments. That doesn’t quite sound like “gloom and doom” at once.

Oil flirted with the $120 a barrel level before sliding on a stronger dollar and news that the Fed may play the “wait and see” game (see below). Equity investors again took a “things could have been worse” approach and sought out value in the aftermath of last week’s economic and earnings reports. Some analysts believe that a stronger dollar will mean the end to the rally in commodities, and investors (hedge funds) will take some related profits and move back into stocks.

Despite all the recent negativity, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points in April, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index both rose about 5% – hardly the recessionary results many had been anticipating.