The world’s second-largest foodmaker went public with its bid for Cadbury earlier this week after being snubbed privately. Kraft’s offer – a 31% premium to the chocolate maker’s Friday closing price of $37.46 a share, but less than  – “fundamentally undervalues” Cadbury, it said. The offer is less than 15 times Cadbury’s 2008 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).

“Any follow-up offer by Kraft would likely involve a higher price,” Moody’s Investor Service senior analyst Brian Weddington said in a note. “The increased leverage that would result under the proposed transaction would be considerable.”

Increased leverage could be a boon to Cadbury and its investors, as The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) will likely throw its hat into the bidding ring, one person familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.

“Hershey recognizes that Cadbury is the last major confectionery company potentially available and, as such, is likely to make some response,” the person told The Journal. Nestle Chief Executive Officer said his company is always “open to acquisition opportunities if they fit strategically.”

Some analysts have Hershey teaming up with rival Nestle SA to make a joint offer for Cadbury and splitting its business, Reuters reported.

If Kraft and Cadbury can reach an agreement, it would be “bad news” for Nestle, Icap PLC analyst Andy Smith told Bloomberg News. “[Nestle has] the firepower to counter if they want.”

Cadbury and Kraft’s combined sales in 2008 were $51 billion, roughly half of Nestle’s in the same period.

However, Hershey’s position is less flexible.

The Pennsylvania chocolate maker has $1.7 billion in net debt and a market capitalization of $8.9 billion. Cadbury is valued at $17.7 billion, so any takeover by Hershey would require serious financing, according to The Journal.

Hershey could pursue a joint effort with Nestle, but that would mean turning Cadbury’s lucrative gum business over to the Swiss candy company to take to avoid antitrust issues.

Cadbury has almost 29% of the global gum market. The other big player in the sector is privately held Mars Inc., which became the world’s largest confectioner last year when it teamed with Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) to buy chewing gum icon Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company for $23 billion. Berkshire owns about 9.4% of Kraft’s shares, according to Reuters.

In January 2007, Cadbury Chief Executive Officer Todd Stitzer agreed with Hershey’s then-Chief Executive Officer Richard Lenny to remove that obstacle and suggested they create a “global confectionary powerhouse.” But any potential merger was held back by Cadbury’s beverage business, which included Dr. Pepper and Snapple.

Cadbury spun off its beverage business in May 2008, which resulted in the birth of the Dr. Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS).

Chances for a reverse scenario of Cadbury acquiring Hershey are slim, as the Hershey Trust is set on protecting the Hershey name and keeping it an American company.

“Simply put: We will not sell the Hershey Co.,” Hershey Trust Chairman LeRoy Zimmerman said in an opinion piece published last year in the Patriot-News of Harrisburg, PA.

While a number of analysts expect Kraft to raise its bid for Cadbury, the foodmaker is in a tight position because it does not have that much room to maneuver without threatening its balance sheet or risking its investment grade credit rating. The company already has almost $19 billion of bonds outstanding, according to Bloomberg.

Other companies mentioned as possible suitors are Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP).

The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and rising commodity costs have sent consumers looking for less expensive products at the grocery store, limiting companies’ ability to grow. As with Mars’ acquisition of Wrigley last year, companies are looking to consolidation for growth.

“Consolidation in the food sector has long been anticipated,” an unnamed merger advisor told Reuters. “Given the drop in [bottled] water revenues, Nestle and Danone are thought to look at acquisitions to spur revenue growth.”

For Kraft, a successful acquisition of Cadbury would spur its growth by expanding its presence in emerging markets like China, Brazil, Russia, and especially India. Cadbury is deeply entrenched in British Commonwealth nations such as India, where it has been selling chocolate for more than 60 years.

A takeover of Cadbury India “would open up a $500 million chocolate market which is growing at 15% per year,” Angel Broking Ltd. analyst Anand Shah told The Journal.

“I believe that in the current global economy, the growth prospects are constrained,” said Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene Rosenfeld.

Shares of Kraft closed at $26.85 yesterday (Wednesday), up 1.51% or 40 cents, while Cadbury closed at $51.80, down .15%, or eight cents.

Source: Kraft’s Bid for Cadbury Not Sweet Enough

This strange exercise in financial kabuki theater will shut down sometime between the election and inauguration day, when the inaugurate finds himself president of the Economic Smoking Wreckage of the United States. What will happen?

I have thought for some time that things could get dangerously out of hand in America, despite our exceptionalist notion that we are immune to the common plot-lines of history. For starters, inauguration night will seem more like Halloween, as those two little words fly in to haunt the new president. So, a large and looming question is: Who will be appointed the next attorney general of the U.S. (to replace the human sash-weight currently occupying the office), and how soon will the federal marshals be scouring the wainscoted hallways of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), not to mention a thousand Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge fund boiler rooms, with man-sized nets?

A storyline is already emerging to the effect that these birds really didn’t quite know what they were doing in grinding out that multi-trillion dollar basket of alphabet securities sausage (a theme on Sunday’s 60 Minutes broadcast). Nobody will buy that line of BS, though — and certainly not in the courtroom where, for instance, Mr. Hank Paulson will have to answer why his own firm of Goldman Sachs set up a special unit to short its own issues. It will be edifying to see how they answer.

In the meantime, however, millions of Joe-the-Plumber types will have gotten their pink slips, slipped helplessly into foreclosure, watched the repo men hot-wire their Ford (NYSE:F) pickups, and eaten down the kitchen cupboard to a single box of Kellogg’s (NYSE:K)  All-Bran (which had been sitting there for eleven years infested with weevils). They will be watching the official proceedings in the federal courtrooms with jaundiced eyes as they hunch in their tent cities, in the rain, sipping amateur-brand raisin wine bartered for a few snared rock doves. How long before the hardier ones among them venture out to Easthampton with long knives and matches?

It will bring little satisfaction though, and the disappointment could lead to a more inchoate outbreak of civil disorder that would be more like a free-for-all of vengeance and grievance. There will be a great outcry for the new government to “do something!” Perhaps that will finally bring the troops home from Iraq — only for them to find that the Homeland has become Iraq….

If the financial system completes its self-destruction — and that’s looking more and more like a real possibility — there will be several pretty awful consequences. One is that the United States will be forced to declare bankruptcy by repudiating its own debt. All those who took refuge in U.S. Treasury bonds and bills will be like folks who sought shelter from a tornado in their out-house.

That would go hand-in-hand with a massive currency inflation that is likely to follow the current phase of compressive liquidating deflation — in which every possible asset is being sold off for less than its face value. That process is self-limiting due to the finite supply of real salable assets. The trillions of dollars injected into the system while this is happening must eventually snap-back as people shed the last fungible article and compete for necessary commodities like food and fuel with dollars that are suddenly plentiful but worthless.

At some point, the government may have to summon up a new currency. I don’t think it will be anything like the “Amero” which the paranoid fringe incessantly mutters about as part of their fantasy in which the U.S., Mexico, and Canada all join up to become one country. But any “new dollar” would probably have to be backed by gold.

As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: “the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy.” That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.

This means especially oil. I hope you’re enjoying the temporarily cheap prices at the gas pumps, because this is purely a function of the compressive deleveraging that is going on right now, as contracts and positions held in energy markets are being dumped by everybody and his uncle to raise cash to meet margin calls. My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead — not just more expensive, but literally not available. The current falling price of oil has little to do with the real supply and demand fundamentals. It’s simply a function of the markets being in near-total disarray. We’re running on current inventory, and running it down.

In the background, all kinds of peculiar and terrible things are happening. The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is being thrown out of whack. The smaller tanker operations are going bankrupt. The “less-developed” nations are heading back to the 17th-century level of daily life without electricity. The oil exploration and development projects that were planned for hard-to-get oil netting $100-a-barrel minimum — in places like the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and Central Asia — are being shelved, which means the world has less of a chance to offset coming depletions in old fields.

The bottom line of all this is that we in the U.S. could find ourselves in a situation of shortages, hoarding, and rationing. This would pretty much kill off whatever remains of the previous shuck-and-jive economy — hamburger sales, theme park visits, NASCAR weekends — while it makes obvious the failures of our suburban living arrangements (and drives the value of housing there closer to zero).

My pet project of restoring the American passenger railroad system might seem pretty minor in the face of all this, but it’s at least a place to start that will accomplish several things: allow people and things to get places without cars and trucks; put many thousands of people to work at many levels doing something of direct, practical value; and be a small step in rebuilding confidence that we are a society capable of accomplishing something.

Source: Easthampton Burning?

• The U.S. Treasury Department announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it would bring back the one-year Treasury bill at its next quarterly refunding auction, MarketWatch reported. “The majority of members believe that the addition of the year bill combined with increases to the size and frequency of existing coupon debt over coming quarters will still not be sufficient to satisfy the increased financing needs of the Treasury over the intermediate and longer term,” a panel of experts said in a government report, stating the next option could be to bring back the 3-year note as well.

• United Online Inc. (UNTD), the owner of Internet service providers NetZero and Juno, announced it would acquire online florist FTD Group Inc. (FTD) for about $456 million in cash, stock and notes, The Wall Street Journal reported. “This transaction will meaningfully diversify our revenue base within a large global market experiencing significant migration to the Internet,” said United Online Chief Executive Mark R. Goldston.

• Descendents of oil scion John D. Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil from which both Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) can trace early roots, have called upon Exxon to be more environmentally conscious, despite the company’s record recent profits, Forbes reported. Neva Rockefeller Goodwin, a great-granddaughter of John D. Rockefeller, said yesterday (Wednesday), “The truth is that Exxon Mobil is profiting in the short term from investments and decisions made many years ago, and by focusing on a narrow path that ignores the rapidly shifting energy landscape around the world, including developing nations.”

• Slowing demand and increasing competition are to blame for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), navigation device maker, to miss market estimates for the first quarter. Garmin’s shares dropped as much as 14.4% on the day to its 52-week low of $39.75 a share as it posted a profit of $147.8 million, or 67 cents a share. Analysts expected the company to earn 74 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

• Soft-drink titans PepsiCo. Inc. (PEP) and The Coca-Cola Co. (KO) continue to push their battle into uncharted waters, as Pepsi announced it acquired V Water, Britain’s vitamin-enhanced bottled water, for an undisclosed amount. V Water is very similar to vitaminwater, which Coca-Cola bought last year for $4.1 billion. Sales of non-carbonated drinks are growing considerable faster than carbonated beverages, and Pepsi already owns SoBe Life Water, Gatorade sports drink and Aquafina bottled water. 

• Brazil’s Bovespa stock index jumped to a record after Standard & Poor’s unexpectedly raised the country’s credit rating to investment grade. The Bovespa Index of the most-traded stocks on the Sao Paul exchange surged 6.38% to 67,896.13 at 3:32 pm EST, its biggest gain in three months.

• Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) reported first-quarter profit of $608 million, a 13% drop from a year ago, yesterday (Wednesday). Though sales improved 21% despite economic pressures and rising commodities prices, as Kraft raised prices on 90% of its products.

• Kellogg Co. (K) reported yesterday (Wednesday) that first-quarter profit fell 2% despite recent price increases. Net earnings fell to $315 million compared with $321 million a year ago. Earnings per share increased from 80 cents a share to 81 cents a share because of a $650 million share-repurchase program, the Associated Press reported.