New home sales jumped almost 10% in July, while the Case-Shiller home price index rose for the second successive month. Yet luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers lost $493 million in the quarter ending July 31, considerably worse than analysts had expected.

Housing stocks are certainly acting as if a recovery must be on the way. Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) has more than doubled from its low. Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is up around 70% from its bottom. D.R. Horton Enterprises (NYSE: DHI) is up almost four times from its bottom. Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is up about 4½ times from its low. Finally, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is up almost tenfold from its low after a flirtation with bankruptcy. Yet all of these companies are still racking up quarterly losses, according to their most recently released earnings reports.

In terms of house prices, it would seem unlikely that a bear market bottom has been reached. Yes, the average house price is now back down around its long-term average of about 3.2 times average earnings, or only a little above it. But history suggests that markets don’t bottom at their average valuation: In fact, after such a huge excess to the upside, they overshoot on the downside.

The Case-Shiller 20-cities index is still 42% above its January 2000 level, having outpaced inflation during the last 9½ years. Yet January 2000 was not the bottom of a housing depression – far from it, in fact. That was actually close to the top of the dot-com bubble, when valuations of all assets were at all-time highs. So an average price over the whole country that – even now – remains 42% above the average price recorded at the very top of a huge economic boom does not seem like a market bottom to me.

You also have to remember that the U.S. federal government is hugely subsidizing the market. Interest rates are artificially low, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has bought more than $1 trillion worth of housing debt. Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have been rescued by the government, and provided with more than $100 billion of taxpayer capital. And Ginnie Mae (the Government National Mortgage Association), directly a government agency, has provided almost $1 trillion of mortgages that require a 3% down payment.

And that’s not all.

The government is spending additional billions helping homeowners avoid foreclosure. First-time buyers are given a tax credit of $8,000 towards the down payment on their house – this credit currently runs out on December 1. So the current overall market bottom is propped up artificially. Even if the proposed tax-credit extension is approved, at some point, those props will be removed.

In individual cities, the picture is somewhat brighter. Phoenix and Las Vegas prices are less than 10% above their 2000 levels, having been halved from their respective peaks. In those markets, house prices may truly be reaching a bottom, although the overhang of foreclosures after such a huge drop may make recovery slow. At the other extreme, Detroit housing is 30% cheaper than in 2000, a testimony to the awful economic environment there, with the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GRM) and Chrysler Group LLC.

Again, with the government bailouts of both companies, there may be something of a recovery in the local housing market.

Probably the best prospects, however, are in Denver and Dallas, where prices are about 20% above their 2000 level, roughly in line with the increase in consumer prices during that same period. However, the local economies are strongly based on natural resources, particularly oil, whose price is triple its 2000 level. With prices in Dallas and Denver down only about 10% from their 2000 peaks, a true recovery in those cities may be near.

At the opposite extreme are the metropolitan “Big Three” of Los Angeles, New York and Washington, where prices are 61%, 71% and 74% above their 2000 levels, respectively.

Washington will be fine, of course: The Obama administration’s spending-and-legislation plans have attracted yet another huge influx of bureaucrats, lobbyists and lawyers, all of which will boost the housing market to new highs. With New York you have to worry about all the financial-services jobs being lost as a result of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

From a nationwide standpoint, the most likely path for the housing market is for a modest recovery, with some later slippage as subsidies are removed. Housing is likely destined to once again become a highly regional market, as it always was prior to the 2001-2006 market boom, with the cycles in each market being very different.

As for homebuilding stocks, they appear to already be discounting a recovery in their businesses that may well be years away. Selling at well above net asset value (NAV), with Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios that are infinite because the companies continue to lose money, shares of homebuilders represent a very poor value, indeed.

Source: The U.S. Housing Market’s False Dawn

The mainstream press would have us to believe a real estate market rebound is imminent. They keep glomming onto any data that shows the slightest sign of stability.

• For instance, Bloomberg jumped all over the July 1 report from the National Association of Realtors that showed pending sales for previously owned homes rose for the fourth consecutive month.
• Other outlets had a field day with the news out of the Mortgage Bankers Association that refinancings hit a three-month high in early July.
• And ditto for the news that foreclosures dropped 11% in the second quarter.

But these “signs of stabilization” are bogus. Or to beg, borrow and steal from value-investing legend, Whitney Tilson, they are the “mother of all head fakes.”

Fact is, these short-term improvements were fabricated. They materialized because of temporary factors like the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit (set to expire November 30), artificially low interest rates (remember the Fed’s been buying Treasuries, en masse, since March to suppress rates) and government and bank moratoriums on foreclosures.

In the end, all this massive intervention is doing is propping up short-term results and prolonging the inevitable. Furthermore, to turn a blind eye to all this government meddling and pretend it’s not artificially influencing demand and prolonging foreclosures, would be irresponsible.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m happy to see an improvement in the market from bad to less bad. But overall, the numbers are still crap.

Three Obstacles to a Housing Market Rebound

Over half of the homeowners who took advantage of loan modification programs, are delinquent again. They weren’t paying before they got interest rate and/or principal reductions. And go figure? They’re not paying now. Great idea Washington!

On top of that, housing prices are still too high to attract buyers yet too low for sellers who are underwater on their mortgages. Such out-of-whack supply/demand dynamics will only foster more uncertainty.

In my opinion, before any meaningful recovery in real estate prices can take root, we need to overcome three major obstacles…

• Rebound Obstacle #1: Inventory Glut. Nearly 10% of all homes built this decade are sitting vacant, compared to a historical average of 2.2%. In total, we’re sitting on almost 10 months worth of inventory versus a historical average of four months. If we factor in the “shadow inventory” – the roughly 600,000 homes that banks are withholding from the market – the problem worsens. Excess supply always erodes prices.
• Rebound Obstacle #2: Loan Resets. Forget subprime. We’ve already worked through 80% of those resets and written down $1.47 trillion in the process. Now we’re facing a $2.5 trillion mountain of Alt-A loan resets. The first big wave hits mid-2011, with the peak expected to come in early 2013. So we’ve still got time, but the early stats hardly instill confidence.More than 20% of Alt-A loans are already 60-plus days late, up from an average of about 3% for the last decade. If interest rates creep up even modestly in the next two years – a near cinch given the likelihood of inflation – payments will increase notably. In turn, so too will default rates.Bottom line, another wave of massive writedowns looms on the horizon.
• Rebound Obstacle #3: Foreclosures. One in four homeowners are now underwater. If we break it out by loan type the picture gets worse – 25% of prime loans, 45% of Alt-A loans, 50% of subprime loans are severely underwater. Add in the 6.5 million Americans out of work since the recession began and it doesn’t take an Einstein to predict where foreclosures are heading. Credit Suisse estimates that we’re in store for a total of 6.5 million by 2012.Even the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) concedes the obvious in its first quarter update, saying, “Looking forward, it does not appear the level of mortgage defaults will begin to fall until after the employment situation begins to improve.” Since the rosiest prediction doesn’t expect unemployment to peak until early 2010, as the MBA acknowledges, “…It is unlikely we will see much of an improvement [in foreclosure rates] until after that.”The fact that the social stigma attached with “walking away” has been severely (and sadly) diminished over the past decade only adds to the foreclosure heap. And more foreclosures will inevitably push prices lower.

The Housing Market’s Reality Bites… But We Can Still Profit

As I’ve said, a simple supply and demand equation underpins the housing market. Right now, there’s way too much supply. Thus, prices can only go lower. And in my opinion, they’ll go significantly lower.

Since the peak, home prices have dropped 34%, based on the Case Shiller Index. However, prices still rest roughly 10% above the long-term trend line.

But given the supply imbalance is so dramatic, and the fact that markets consistently overshoot resistance and support levels, I’m convinced that prices will crash right through the trend line, falling another 20% to 30% before we see a legitimate turnaround in 2011.

I’m not alone, either. Mortgage insurer PMI Group estimates that a 75% chance exists that the majority of our metropolitan areas will experience price declines through the first quarter of 2011. And if we experience a double-dip recession, all bets are off on how low prices will go.

The brave at heart can look to profit from the decline by shorting any of the major homebuilders like:

• Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM)
• KB Home (NYSE: KBH)
• DR Horton (NYSE: DHI)
• Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)
• Or Lennar (NYSE: LEN)

Be warned, though. The ride will be volatile.

Otherwise, the newly launched MacroShares Major Metro Down ETF (NYSE: DMM) is an option. The exchange traded fund is benchmarked to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index and features three times (300%) leverage. For every 1% decline in the index (i.e. real estate prices), the ETF should increase in value by 3%.

For the truly conservative investor, I recommend the “nothing ventured, nothing lost” approach. In other words, wait to go long when buying real estate because we’re nowhere close to a bottom. At the very least, wait for the prevailing shrink-wrap frenzy to end.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: Three (More) Reasons Real Estate Isn’t Rebounding

No matter which path GM chooses – conventional restructuring or bankruptcy – the U.S. Big Three of GM, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler LLC will have to adjust to the U.S. auto market’s post-financial-crisis “new reality.” Automakers will sell only 10 million cars and trucks in the U.S. market this year, the worst in at least 3 decades – and roughly 38% less than the 16 million vehicles that were sold in the United States annually in recent years before the financial collapse caused an accompanying collapse in auto sales.

Part of the reason for the slump in new vehicle sales is that consumers are increasingly turning to used cars. Pre-owned car sales are up 10% this year over last, as credit availability increases, but buyers focus on affordability. In fact, according to the most-recent report, used-car sales jumped in April, and the trend is expected to continue at least until the middle of the year as pent-up demand for affordable, pre-owned vehicles jacked up the used-vehicle segment of the auto marketplace.

Market Matters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner put his most optimistic face forward in assessing the progress with the bank bailout plan. Geithner pointed out that the 19 stressed-tested banks have already raised $56 billion in capital [including Bank of America Corp.’s (NYSE: BAC) $13.5 billion stock offering] and several could begin to pay back Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) money shortly.  He also indicated that the public-private partnership to remove “toxic” assets from banks’ books should be up and running in the next month-and-a-half, a move that may instill greater confidence in the financial markets.

However, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal rained on Geithner’s parade by estimating that small and mid-sized banks could face losses on bad commercial real estate loans of $100 billion by year-end 2010. A Money Morning investigation of the looming commercial real estate crisis predicted that this sector of the real-estate market would pose major problems for the U.S. economic recovery.

Meanwhile, GMAC LLC may be close to receiving a fresh $7 billion in new (bailout) money as the government continues to seek ways to rescue the auto industry.  GM reached an agreement with its main union (UAW) that would reduce retiree benefits and overall labor costs to make them comparable to those of their foreign rivals.

As another negative earnings season comes to a close, investors searched long and hard for a bright spot – any bright spot.  With most Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies reporting, earnings plunged more than 30% in the first quarter and are on track to fall 13% for the full year, the worst annual performance in six years.

Still, Thomson Reuters PLC (Nasdaq ADR: TRIN) says that a consensus of sell-side analysts projects a 29% increase in earnings in 2010 as cost-cutting measures pay off and relative results begin to look more attractive.

The Lowes Cos. Inc. (NYSE: LOW) reported better-than-expected quarterly profits and raised its outlook for the year, but The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) saw its numbers disappoint investors who were looking for stronger signs from the home improvement giant.  Likewise, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) reported weaker earnings, and that spawned renewed pessimism for the high-tech sector.

On a brighter note, retailers Sears Holdings Corp. (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) reported better-than-expected quarterly profits.  Ratings upgrades brought early promise as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) boosted its forecast on homebuilder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN); Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) raised its views on McDonalds Corp. (NYSE: MCD); and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) made Bank of America a “Buy.”  However, S&P warned it may downgrade the United Kingdom’s debt below AAA due to ongoing economic obstacles, a development that prompted others to wonder if U.S. securities could face similar dire possibilities.

Crude oil surged past $62 a barrel on lower inventory data and gasoline climbed above $2.36 a gallon heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, a far cry from the $3.80 of this time last year – although it was 30 cents higher than late April levels.

Economically Speaking

While Geithner was “spinning” the bailout progress in the most favorable light possible, the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes painted a picture of a more sluggish economy than most had predicted just three months ago.  In fact, the policymakers negatively revised their projections for economic contraction and warned that the unemployment rate could push toward 10% by the end of the year.  Still, central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke believes improvements are on the way as the impact of the Obama administration stimulus package aids in the recovery over the year’s second half. Furthermore, the Fed stands prepared to buy more U.S. Treasury and mortgage-related securities should such moves be deemed beneficial.

In the “it could be worse” category, Mexico (-21.5%), Japan (-15.2%), and Germany (-14.4%) each reported severe economic declines (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP), as these three primary U.S. trading partners suffered the ill effects of the lower domestic demand for foreign-made goods and services.

Though the economic calendar was rather light during the week, some positive signs did emerge from deep within the numbers.  While analysts were surprised by a decline in April housing starts, the losses stemmed from a reduction in apartment activity, and single-family construction actually jumped by almost 3%, its second consecutive positive monthly showing.

Additionally, a private survey of the nation’s construction professionals depicted that homebuilder sentiment soared to its highest level in eight months, another sign that the prolonged housing slump may finally be nearing an end.

Finally, leading economic indicators, a predictive index that forecasts activity for the ensuing six months, turned positive after six straight down months.  Unfortunately, labor continued to struggle as the number of folks who have been receiving unemployment benefits for over a week hit a new record high.  While the economy definitely seems to be moving past the dreaded recession, any recovery will be limited as long as the labor picture remains weak and employees hold off on purchases until their job situations become more stable.  And the risk of a “double-dip” downturn remains somewhat high.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: As GM Cruises Toward Government Deadline, U.S. Automakers Must Learn to Deal With a Permanently Smaller Market

The answer is critical to understanding the current economic depression.

This is a chart of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

As you can see, it’s plummeted over the last 18 months or so.

It shows that U.S. house prices have been spanked harder than a disrespectful 5 year old.

And, unfortunately, it shows no sign of bottoming anytime soon.

This makes sense considering the flood of foreclosures hitting the market.

In my parents’ neighborhood in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, homes that were selling for $250,000 during the peak are now going for $70,000 in foreclosure.

Repeat this scenario across the country, and you’ll see that home prices still have further to go.

Making matters worse is the 8.1% U.S. unemployment rate and the fact that nobody can find credit to buy a home with. (Less credit means fewer mortgages.)

As the year drags on and foreclosures keep hammering house prices, this trend will continue to drain cash from homebuilders.

That means homebuilders such Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) should continue to see lower share prices as the year wears on.

The numbers offer more evidence of the dismal economic conditions facing President Barack Obama’s administration.

The news confirms a relentless downward spiral for home builders, who have all but shut down building projects as home values plunge and potential buyers stay on the sidelines.

“What you’re seeing is capitulation by home builders,” John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Corp. (MCO) told The New York Times. “The news you got today reinforces the view that stabilization of housing starts is well off into the future.”

Housing starts fell 15.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000 units from an upwardly revised rate of 651,000 units in November, the lowest on record, the Commerce Department reported yesterday (Thursday).

The pace of new-home construction in December was 45% below its levels from a year ago. For all of 2008, the government estimated that 904,300 housing units were started, down 33% from 2007.

A Labor Department report spelled more bad news for the housing market, as the number of Americans filing first-time unemployment claims matched a 26-year high in the week ended Jan. 17. Initial jobless claims increased by 62,000 to 589,000, greater than economists had expected.

“The worst is not over,” Lonski said. “Rising unemployment and tightening credit conditions are worsening the prospects for housing, which by itself suggests that we could be surprised at how poorly the economy performs in the early part of 2009.”

As Money Morningsaid in its 2009 Housing Forecast, skyrocketing unemployment acts like a 1000-pound ball and chain around the neck of the real estate market.

Builders, whose shares have lost 76% of their value over the last three years, are slashing prices to compete with a record number of foreclosed homes coming onto the market, Bloomberg News reported.

“Homebuilders have no choice,” Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com, told Bloomberg. “The market is bloated with excess supply and demand is weak. The pace of housing starts will remain depressed until 2011.”

Big homebuilding firms like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Lennar Corp. (LEN) and Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) are limping along, bleeding cash and fighting for survival. But the downturn isn’t just hurting only big builders anymore.

The malaise is spreading now to the smaller mom and pop builders. Approximately 20% of the nation’s homebuilders have closed their doors.

Hammered by collapsing prices and banks scrounging for cash, even the industry’s brightest stars are finding themselves with their backs against the wall.  Banks are now yanking credit lines from small and mid-size homebuilders even before they miss a single payment, The New York Times reported.

Lenders, for their part, are demanding more collateral to mitigate risk.

That’s what happened to Brown Family Communities, a well-known builder in the Phoenix area. Despite never missing a payment, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) demanded millions in cash for land on the outskirts of town that had fallen in value. Brown balked and lost the property, ultimately closing his doors.

“The real estate market is gone,” Brown said.

Banks like JPMorgan loaned builders hundreds of billions of dollars to buy up vacant land. Now that buyers in some areas can pick up previously constructed homes for less than it costs to build a new one, demand for new homes has plunged. That means builders’ are no longer able to turn a profit.

Obama’s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers said last week the president intends to use between $50 billion and $100 billion of the remaining half of the $700 billion bank bailout fund enacted last year to address foreclosures and bring stability to the housing market.

Source: Homebuilders Give Up as New Housing Starts Hit 50 Year Low

The reports included separate data on factory orders and pending home sales for November, as well as the Institute of Supply Management report on the non-manufacturing index for December – giving investors fresh insight into the depth of the current recession.

Despite the overall negative tone of the reports, some analysts maintain the worst may be over.

“While the economic headlines remain grim, stocks are holding higher in quiet trading because a lot of the bad news was already discounted when the stock market crashed in 2008,” Frederic Ruffy, options strategist, at WhatsTrading.com told MarketWatch.

Factory Orders Fall Biggest Since 1992

Data from the manufacturing sector confirmed that the recession accelerated in November. Orders placed with U.S. factories fell twice as much as forecast, signaling businesses are cutting back on investments, Bloomberg reported.

Factory demand fell 4.6% after a revised 6% decrease in October that was more than previously reported, the Commerce Department said yesterday (Tuesday) in Washington. The back-to-back decline was the biggest since records began in 1992.

“Consumer-durable spending is way down as credit is more difficult to get,” Douglas Smith, chief economist for the Americas at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “With weakness overseas, you’re also seeing fewer orders for U.S. manufactured goods.”

Tight Credit Hammers Home Resales

A key housing indicator added to the economic malaise as pending home re-sales fell 4% to 82.3 in November, the lowest level since the index began in 2001. The index was down from a revised 85.7 in October, the National Association of Realtors said.

The latest drop supports most analysts’ views that further softening could be in store for the U.S. housing market as credit markets continue to seize up and unemployment skyrockets.

“The housing stress just doesn’t end,” Ethan Harris, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg. Economists had expected November pending sales to fall 1% after an originally reported drop of 0.7% in the prior month.

Meanwhile homebuilders are hanging on by a thread. Lennar Corp. (LEN), a U.S. home building company with operations in 14 states, reported its seventh straight quarterly loss on Dec. 18.

“We’re in the midst of a downward spiral and the momentum is building,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said on a conference call with analysts.

Service Sector Gives Hope

Meanwhile, the service sector provided the market with a glimmer of hope as the non-manufacturing index contracted in December at a slower rate than had been feared.

The ISM service sector index rose to 40.6% in December from a record low of 37.3% in November. Economists polled by MarketWatch had projected a figure of 37% for December. Still, a reading below 50% indicates that more firms are contracting than expanding.

In December, only one industry reported growth: Retail trade. Among the 17 industries reporting contractions: Wholesale trade; professional, scientific and technical services; and transportation and warehousing.

But surveyed managers said they were still worried about a falloff in their business, budget cuts and jobs. As global demand slows and access to credit continues to tighten, companies are likely to further curtail spending.

The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Dec. 23. The economy probably shrank at a 4.3% annual rate in the last three months of 2008, the biggest contraction since 1982, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed last month by Bloomberg.

The barrage of negative data may put pressure on Congress to move quickly on President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus plan. Obama has proposed an economic stimulus package costing as much as $850 billion, with emphasis on infrastructure projects and tax cuts. The incoming administration hopes the package will provide a boost to consumer spending and stabilize the economy.

Source: Stock Market Gyrates as Reports Show Economy Deep in Recession

The housing market has been tumbling for some time now, but the squeeze in credit is now making matters a whole lot worse. There are two clear indicators of this: 1) They’re cutting dividends; 2) They’re selling off homes at “fire sale” prices.

The government isn’t stepping in to save these guys. Andrew says now is a good time to short the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (AMEX:XHB)

More from Andrew:

The housing market has been going down for a couple of years. But the monthly numbers keep getting worse.

August housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000. That’s the lowest it’s been since back in early 1991, and 6.6 percent of all loans are at least a month past due. And sales of pre-owned homes fell by 2.2 percent in August. OUCH.

Most homebuilders haven’t been profitable since 2006. But it wasn’t until recently that they flashed two clear signs of desperation.

• They’re cutting dividends. Lennar (NYSE:LEN), the biggest homebuilder in the U.S., cut dividends by 75 percent last week. More dividend cuts will come from the sector.
• They’re selling their property at fire-sale prices. That makes them even more desperate than banks. Banks refused to sell their toxic debt at huge discount prices. That’s a big reason why the government had to step in and offer to buy this stuff at higher prices than what they could get from the private sector. Horton, for example, recently sold a San Diego property for 25 cents on the dollar.

Yes they’re getting tax-refund checks from Uncle Sam for the losses they take on these sales. Still, healthy, or even semi-healthy companies don’t sell their property for pennies on the dollar unless they’re in dire straits.Even homebuilders themselves see tough times ahead. Here’s what Lennar said:

“While we expected the housing market to remain constrained throughout the third quarter, the weakness in the market actually accelerated as a result of increased foreclosures, weakened consumer confidence and tightened mortgage lending standards.”

I believe that housing will remain “constrained” much longer than through the third quarter.  I think the third quarter of next year is more like it, especially with foreclosures increasing and driving down prices.

In a middle-class neighborhood in South Florida, not far from IDE’s Delray Beach office, you can buy pre-owned homes in foreclosure for less than $85,000. Why would anyone buy more expensive new homes when they could just buy a foreclosed one at a steep discount?

And the credit freeze that occurred right after Lehman fell is killing home builders. One of these days credit is going to thaw, and I hope it’s sooner rather than later. But banks won’t go back to their free-wheeling lending days, and in the meantime it’s extremely difficult to get home loans.

Morningstar says, “It’s likely that these home builders are going to enter an even more difficult period in terms of cash generation.”

O’Donnell /Atkins, a real-estate advisory firm in California, says, “There’s going to be a rash of builders shedding assets.”

Prudential Realty in California, says, “The downside is they are never going to see the kind of margins when lots were doubling and tripling in value in the time it took to build a house.”

Banks are hogging the headlines but home builders are in big trouble. The 20 percent they’ve dropped so far this year is nothing (the blue line above is the Spyders home builders ETF – XHB). It’s only half of the banks’ drop.

Like every other sector, home builders are having a terrible October. Unlike other sectors, there’s nothing to save these companies from doubling and perhaps tripling those losses.

Most likely, a falling market has taken a big chunk of change from you. Here’s a way to get it back. All you have to do is short these companies or the home builders ETF.

Source: Next Shoe to Drop

• Nationwide home prices fell a record 5.3% in July compared with a year ago, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said yesterday (Tuesday). Prices were down 0.6% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis, and are now at October 2005 levels.

• Chrysler LLC yesterday (Tuesday) unveiled three prototype electric cars, including a Dodge sports car, a four-door Jeep Wrangler, and a Chrysler minivan, The Associated Press reported. The company hopes to put one of them on sale in the United States sometime in 2010 to compete with General Motors Corp.’s (GM) much-hyped Chevrolet Volt.

• Oil prices pulled back more than 2% yesterday (Tuesday) after Monday’s record setting rally. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $2.76 to settle at $106.61 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after as low as $104.05 earlier in the day. The contract jumped $6.62 to settle at $109.37 on Monday.

• Lennar Corp. (LEN) yesterday (Tuesday) reported a loss of $89 million, or 56 cents per share, compared with a loss of $513.9 million, or $3.25 per share, a year ago. The loss was less than the 63 cents per share expected, according to Reuters Estimates. Lennar’s revenue plunged 53% to $1.11 billion in the quarter, beating estimates of $1.07 billion.

• E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (DD), more commonly known as DuPont, yesterday (Tuesday) announced Ellen Kullman as its new president and chief executive officer. Kullman is the first woman to hold the chief post in DuPont’s 206-year history, Reuters reported. Kullman, who has been with DuPont since 1988 was seen as the likely successor to the retiring Charles Holliday.

• ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL) stock shot up almost 7% yesterday (Tuesday) after a late-night Monday bid boost from Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY). The latest offer of $62 per share for ImClone is a $2 boost over Bristol’s prior offer. Bristol also went hostile with the offer, taking the new bid directly to ImClone shareholders, Forbes reported.

• The Wall Street Journal yesterday (Tuesday) reported that Electricite de France SA (PINK: EICFF) would pay $23 billion (12.4 billion pounds) for British Energy Group PLC. EDF refused to comment on the report, but has scheduled a press conference for today (Wednesday), BusinessWeek
  reported.

Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, September 24th, 2008

However, the stock of home appliance maker Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) has risen 6.4% in the year to date despite razor thin margins and a wider downturn.

Wave Strength Options Weekly editor Adam Lass says this is a great opportunity to make at least 30% with a simple short play.

Buying strategic put options could increase these gains up to 118%.

More from Adam in today’s Taipan Publishing:

My partner Bryan Bottarelli’s analysis of Whirlpoolmakes perfect sense:

When I look at Whirlpool’s business model, I see a company with a $6.64 billion market cap, trading at a P/E ratio of 12.19, while making a razor-thin profit margin of 2.89%.

In strong economic times, making 2.89% on a high-ticket item like appliances makes you a lot of money. But in the heart of a market recession (like we have right now), I can’t see a company like WHR being able to maintain any upside momentum.

After all, millions of unsold U.S. homes are currently sitting on the market with brand-new WHR appliances. I would think that the market needs to work through this inventory before WHR can think of receiving a substantial amount of new sales. And therefore, the forward outlook, to my eye, is very weak.

Now WHR stock is a bit of an oddity right now. Most everyone else connected with the housing and home wares biz have been well and truly stomped on.

You wouldn’t expect a builder like Lennar (NYSE:LEN) to be up, and indeed it is not. You wouldn’t advise a friend to buy shares of a joint that sells nails and furnishings like Home Depot (NYSE:HD).

But WHR is still vainly trying to hold on to its 2008 highs. My Wave Strength Options Weekly charts tell us that even a simple short play ought to be good for some 30% gains over the next few months.

However, the puts that Bryan and I recommended to WOW readers stand to gain as much as 118% off that same 30% drop.

Certainly something to cheer you up as you fold the wash, eh?

Source: Can Long Lines, Broken Machines and a Botched Election Sell Dishwashers?

The largest independent auto-finance company lost $300 million last year on its $25 billion auto loan portfolio as defaults rose higher than 7%. What will be next? Credit cards.

Even though interest rates on credit-card debt are sky high, the minimum payments are small, which is allowing people to keep borrowing. At least for now.

Equifax (a leading credit bureau) reports total credit-card balances increased 8.1% in the first quarter of this year – more than double the previous average rate of growth. Naturally, the steepest increases in credit-card borrowing occurred in the same states where the mortgage crisis is the worst. Credit-card balances rose nearly 15% in the first quarter in California and Florida and more than 20% in Nevada.

Like drug addicts, consumers cannot survive without more and more credit, and they’re now turning to the most expensive and unreliable source. They will soon hit bottom.

In the latest issue of my newsletter, PSIA, I tell my subscribers how to profit from the coming collapse of U.S. credit-card debt, which now stands at $1 trillion. If you never read another issue of my letter, make sure you read this one. Click here to learn about a risk-free subscription.

Interested in trend following? Ed Seykota, the system-trading pioneer, composed a bluegrass song outlining the basics of his strategy. Check out The Whipsaw Song here.

Oil prices hit an intraday record above $115 a barrel this week, and Jeff Clark is perfectly positioned to profit from the move. In Advanced Income, Jeff found the one undervalued oil sector: refiners. While every other oil stock is trading at all-time highs, refiners are at 10-year lows.

Jeff created a trade to profit from the turnaround in refiners, and it pays you 8% up front. He noticed a similar trend last month, and that trade is already up 18%. To learn more about Advanced Income and receive Jeff’s latest recommendation, click here.

Energy costs rose 2.9% last month, while food prices rose 1.2%. The Fed cuts interest rates 100 basis points and injects more than $100 billion to prop up the liars and cheats on Wall Street, and I’m paying $5 for a box of cereal and nearly $4 for a gallon of gas. But maybe I’ll soon be paying a little less for gasoline…

It says right here in the Wall Street Journal Republican presidential candidate John McCain wants Congress to put a temporary halt on the 18.4-cent federal gas tax and 24.4-cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

Tax cuts are the only true economic stimulus the government can offer. Everything else it does is merely a redistribution of seized wealth or a manipulation of the money supply.

China’s sovereign wealth fund recently invested $2 billion in oil major BP. A Chinese investment could soon become the ultimate contrary indicator…

In the past year, Chinese government-controlled entities invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley, bought 9.9% of Bear Stearns (at around $150 per share), and invested $3 billion in Blackstone Group at the top in private equity.

Our favorite commodities bull, Jim Rogers, had a front-page Barron’s interview recently. Rogers told the same story (long agriculture/China, short banks), but gave some specific stocks this time.

He’s still short investment banks through the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD). He’s short Citigroup (C) and Fannie Mae (FNM). He’s also short some U.S. homebuilders, including Lennar (LEN). Meanwhile, he’s a big fan of international airlines like Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, and Japan Airlines. He’s bullish on the renminbi, and his only exposure to emerging markets is through China and Taiwan.

If foreign stocks aren’t your thing, maybe you should check out our Monthly Dividend Program. Goldsmith compiled a portfolio of 10 stocks paying monthly dividends, and the portfolio is up 5% in a month.

Readers have already made 9% on an oil stock that yields more than 13%. They’ve also pocketed 9% on a hotel REIT yielding close to 7%. And that’s just capital gains. There are still 120 dividend checks on the way. To receive Goldsmith’s report, which shows you exactly how to pick the best monthly dividend payers and gives you our 10 favorite, click here…

Regards,

Porter Stansberry and Dan Ferris