Crude oil futures for August delivery on the Nymex fell $5.42, or 4 percent, to $129.18 a barrel. Oil prices briefly touched $129 a barrel.

Are we seeing the end of the oil bubble? That depends on whether you think the oil market is in a bubble or is simply reflecting a supply-and-demand imbalance. Bill Bonner says it’s both…

In the oil market, we see both a bubble… and a useful commodity responding to economic forces. If you want to see a “pure bubble,” you have to look at something like the tulip mania in Holland or the Mississippi affair in France or the dot.com debacle in New York.

These were “pure” bubbles because neither tulips, nor shares in the Mississippi company, nor dot.coms had any real economic value. Their prices were based 100% on speculation – not supply and demand. And since there was no “there there,” as Gertrude Stein might say, there was nothing left when the speculation disappeared. Their prices could go to zero, in other words.

Will the price of oil go to zero? No… not a chance. If the oil market is in a bubble, at least it is a bubble mitigated by three very important circumstances: 1) oil is perhaps the world’s most useful commodity, 2) more and more people want the stuff, 3) it is priced mostly in dollars whose value, in terms of everything else, is going down.

Normally, we can set aside the first two circumstances. Everyone knows oil is useful. Everyone knows the Chinese, the Indians and all the other foreigners are becoming addicted to it – just as Americans have been addicted for the last 50 years. These circumstances come as no surprise to anyone… and markets can sort them out. They were obvious in the oil market two years ago… they are obvious now.

Of course, even if they are obvious doesn’t mean investors have noticed. And in today’s oil market, it looks as if investors are suddenly waking up to something they should have seen a long time ago. But we suspect that the real surprise to most investors is the third circumstance. During the last 15 years – a period known as the Great Moderation – it was inflation that seemed to be taking a long nap. The band was playing loud music. Free drinks were passed around. Everyone was there – except inflation. Maybe it was out of town, some wondered. Or, maybe it was dead. Whatever happened to it, inflation was not around.

But, then the old party pooper showed up – and people began looking for their hats and saying goodbye to each other.

“US consumer prices up most in 26 years,” was yesterday’s most telling headline. Even the Wall Street Journal announced a price increase – to $2 an issue.

If you’re an oil sheik whose only asset is $100 billion worth of oil under the desert sand, you pay attention. The dollar has lost about 25% of its purchasing power – depending on how you measure it – in the last 5 years. If inflation rates just stay the same, the poor oil sheik stands to lose more than $25 billion by 2013. If he doesn’t think he’s getting a fair deal at today’s oil price, he’s likely to put a little crimp in the oil pipeline – reducing production until the price increases.

On the other hand, if the price of oil goes up enough, he’s likely to think that he should get it while the gettin’s good. Then, he would increase production – driving down the oil price.

Our guess is that the oil market has probably over-reacted to circumstances. When investors realized how much demand was increasing… they bid up prices. And when they realized how much inflation was increasing… they bid up prices further. And when speculators saw prices rising so much, they bid them up even further.

Now, oil is probably ready for a correction. Ten years ago, an ounce of gold would buy about 10 barrels of oil. Today, it buys only about 7. As is the case with oil, gold has responded to the increase in inflation rates. As to everything else, it is probably indifferent. So, if we were just adjusting the oil price to inflation, it should probably sell for about $95 a barrel.

As to the forces of supply and demand – Mr. Market would know better than we do. But Mr. Market, for all his sage experience, has a tendency to over-react. He probably over-reacted to growing, worldwide demand. Now, growth rates are declining throughout the world; he will probably over-react to that too.

So, where will the price of oil go? We wish we could tell you. It might very well sink below $100. But it will never sink as low as a busted dot.com or a crushed tulip bulb.

Source: Has Oil Topped Out?

So what can be done, asks Greg Gunner Guenthner. Are there ways to make it cleaner? Carbon capture technology is a possibility, but it’s years away from being usable.

Oil is another massive polluter, and gets more expensive by the day. Looks like the only option is to invest in sustainable energy – the sooner the better.

By a wide margin, the United States has the largest coal reserves on the planet. The coal supplies in the U.S. account for 95% of its fossil fuel reserves and a whopping 60% of the fuel reserves in the world, according to the American Coal Foundation.

Yes, coal prices have continues to rise across the globe. But of course, this pales in comparison to the continued run-up in petroleum, which has virtually paralyzed the wallets of many oil-reliant Americans.

The idea of a coal shortage is virtually unthinkable. We have roughly 275 billion tons of recoverable coal, enough for us to burn for the next two and a half centuries if we needed it. So while the next generation might not have the oil to run their cars and trucks, the lights at the house will stay on thanks to coal power.

If this were the end of the story, coal would be sitting pretty. But the black rock is under attack from governments, scientists and ordinary citizens throughout the world. And with no end in sight, our main source of electricity is in serious jeopardy.

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The Ugly Truth About Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The prolific use of coal as a power generating fuel is causing massive damage to the planet in the form of carbon dioxide emissions. This is not a political statement – it’s been proven over and over again by scientists and accepted by governments and the United Nations.

Today, oil we burn in our vehicles and use for power generation is the number one source of CO2 emissions. However, half of the excess CO2 civilization has contributed to the air is from coal. And as you are aware, oil use will most likely decrease from this point forward due to supply and pricing constraints.

It is clear that coal is the dirty, cheap energy culprit the world needs to fix. President Bush and both major-party candidates in the White House race have advocated the development and use of new coal technology that would reduce CO2 emissions. And politicians on both sides of the isle have supported efforts to develop clean coal technology.

Unfortunately, a viable solution is decades away.

Take carbon capture technology, for instance. Carbon capture techniques are designed to take the CO2 emissions from power plants and inject them into the rocks or other geological formations. This process would keep the harmful CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere.

The Clean Coal Boondoggle

While it looks good on paper, industry analysts believe this technology is at least 10 to 15 years away from commercial use. Others are questioning whether CCS will ever become viable. A New York Times article from earlier this year asks precisely that, describing the government yanking support from an Illinois site that was supposed to pioneer the technology.

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The article continues, citing utility projects in Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Minnesota and Washington State that have been canceled or postponed. The piece continued with even more evidence that questions the program’s viability:

Coal is abundant and cheap, assuring that it will continue to be used. But the failure to start building, testing, tweaking and perfecting carbon capture and storage means that developing the technology may come too late to make coal compatible with limiting global warming.

“It’s a total mess,” said Daniel M. Kammen, director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley.

A total mess? This doesn’t sound promising at all…

All Coal Is Not Created Equal

Two important conclusions must be drawn from this evidence. First, we see no reduction in the volume of coal used to generate power in the foreseeable future. It is also clear that a truly viable CO2 reducing solution needs to present itself ASAP. Green laws sprouting up across the European Union and the United States will require a change.

Electricity demand in western states continues to rise. Power distributors are desperate to keep up with demand. Add to the mix strict environmental laws and you’re looking at a world of hurt for the Western United States.

Source: Coal Keeps the Lights on in America — Can We Make It Cleaner?

Washington will be asked this week to answer allegations that subsidies amounting to 11p a litre on B99 [biodiesel with up to 1% petroleum added] exports from the US, plus “splash-and-dash” operations being conducted through the US, represent unfair competition.

The European Biodiesel Board lodged a formal complaint against the US with [the European commissioner] at the end of last month after a disastrous period for British, German and other biodiesel producers.

D1, one of the leading UK firms, announced in April that it would be closing its newly built refineries and laying off all its staff there because it could not compete against cheap US imports. Elliott Mannis, D1’s chief executive, said it was an “unbelievable situation” that Europe had sat on its hands so long and let B99 cause turmoil in a market that has opened up to huge new demand.

The case against the US will not be one-sided. Manning Feraci, of the US National Biodiesel Board, has said: “It is hypocritical for the EBB to cry foul while they benefit from a blatant trade barrier.”

Byron King in Energy and Oil is bullish on another alternative energy source: coal to liquid or CTL.

“The US will adopt CTL, because it has to do so,” says Byron. “There are few other large-scale industrial alternatives. Windmills, biofuels, conservation and every other energy-saving and energy-extending idea will help. But the world we live in is built to run on oil, and nothing else will cut it for some things when it comes to running a fast-transforming economy. So stand by for CTL.

“It is not a question of if the US will adopt CTL. It is a question of when. And looking ahead, every month is precious. As I said above, we are running out of time. So it will matter greatly how much will we as a nation fool around with our national obsession of navel-gazing over ancillary issues before we get around to making a decision to bend steel.”

“The biofuels debate is interesting from a number of angles,” says Merryn Somerset Webb in Money Week. “Firstly, it is not absolutely true to say that the commitment of land to the production of biofuels automatically reduces food production everywhere (although that hardly makes the European Union’s full-on encouragement of plant-derived fuel right).

“Supporters of biofuels tend to use the Brazilian experience as justification for the dash to plant-derived fuel alternatives, not that that country’s success should detract from the fact that there are a lot of other places where land which would otherwise have been used to grow food for human consumption has now been given over to the production of biofuel to feed machinery!

“The EU could, for example, call a halt to its pre-announced intention to derive 5.75% of petrol and diesel to be manufactured from plants, although we understand the EU’s difficulties given growing stresses in the oil market too.”

This from The Wall Street Journal:

With oil’s multi-year ascent showing no signs of stopping — crude futures set another record Tuesday, closing at $129.07 a barrel in New York trading — energy security has emerged as a major concern for the Pentagon.

The U.S. military consumes 340,000 barrels of oil a day, or 1.5% of all of the oil used in the country. The Defense Department’s overall energy bill was $13.6 billion in 2006, the latest figure available — almost 25% higher than the year before. The Air Force’s bill for jet fuel alone has tripled in the past four years. When the White House submitted its latest budget request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it tacked on a $2 billion surcharge for rising fuel costs.

Synthetic fuel, which can be made from coal or natural gas, is expensive now, but could cost far less than the current price of oil if it’s mass-produced.

The report also reveals that the Pentagon has embraced planning around peak oil theory:

Earlier this year, they brought Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons to the Pentagon for a presentation on peak oil; he warned that under the theory, “energy security becomes an oxymoron.”

“The U.S. will adopt liquid coal (also known as coal to liquid or CTL), because it has to do so,” says Byron King in his Energy and Oil blog.

“There are few other large-scale industrial alternatives. Windmills, biofuels, conservation and every other energy-saving and energy-extending idea will help. But the world we live in is built to run on oil, and nothing else will cut it for some things when it comes to running a fast-transforming economy. So stand by for liquid coal.”