“He could not have nominated a more incompetent body. The Coast Guard would do a better job.”

“Financial upheaval owes homage to derivatives that shrouded the massive growth in debt and leverage.”

This murky world inflated the incentives of those who ran the machinery over the cliff — bankers, mortgage brokers, law firms, appraisers, rating agencies, politicians, and on it goes. This is well known. Despite protestations, the parties knew they were behaving either recklessly or criminally at the time. The Federal Reserve encouraged them. With a straight face, Hank Paulson proposes that the Fed quash future imbroglios. Yet the terracotta soldiers of Xian would bring more initiative to the assignment.

The Fed’s oversight of Long-Term Capital Management

In September 1998, the Federal Reserve didn’t have the slightest idea of how the banking system functioned; it hadn’t the slightest idea of the banks’ exposure to hedge funds; nor had it the slightest idea of the leverage within the financial system. Maybe these deficiencies are excusable, although the Federal Reserve was responsible for regulating bank holding companies (the holding companies being where much of the risk was housed). It is unpardonable in the aftermath, having learned of its own deficiencies, that the Federal Reserve made no effort to improve its oversight or to warn of the dangers it had recently discovered. Instead, the Fed encouraged devious practices.

In the first three weeks of September 1998, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a Connecticut hedge fund, lost half a billion dollars per week and everyone knew it. Except, possibly, Alan Greenspan. In mid-September, the Federal Reserve chairman told the House Banking Committee that “hedge funds [are] strongly regulated by those who lend the money.” On Sept. 21, LTCM lost $550 million. In a virtuoso rejection of every financial institution’s model, all security prices went down. This is normal. In a panic, everyone sells.

The Fed’s lackluster oversight was partly to blame. On May 2, 1998, Alan Greenspan gave a speech in which he emphasized the advantages of “private market regulation.” Greenspan explained, “rapidly changing technology has begun to render obsolete much of the bank examination regime established in earlier decades. Bank regulators are perforce now being pressed to depend increasingly on ever more complex and sophisticated private market regulation… One of the key lessons from US banking history [is] that counterparty supervision is still the first line of regulatory defense.” He also noted the Federal Reserve’s decision to supervise “risk management procedures, rather than actual portfolios.” The Fed now evaluated how banks monitored their own risks (e.g., their modeling techniques, the process used to monitor counterparties) in lieu of examining specific securities.

When assets are off the balance sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a conference call on Sept. 29, 1998. The staff and Federal Reserve governors briefed Greenspan on Long-Term Capital Management’s counterparties — the banks that lent to LTCM. He was told that none of the banks, with the exception of Bankers Trust, had an up-to-date balance sheet for LTCM. Even this was “only a small piece of [Bankers’] whole action because so much of the latter is off balance sheet.” When assets are off balance sheet, the bank’s motivation to “strongly regulate” is diminished.

The Federal Reserve chairman was at a loss: “the question is why it happened in the first place. Is it just that the lenders were dazzled by the people at LTCM and did not take a close look?” Vice Chairman William McDonough replied there “was in place a credit system that made a great deal of sense.” In the next sentence — which simply cannot have been an explanation of this sensible system — McDonough told the FOMC: “for at least some of the lenders, there was no initial margin requirement.” McDonough went on to suggest the Federal Reserve might have taken more initiative: “we do not regulate the firm. But given the number of institutions they dealt with around the world, was there a way that should have enabled us to be more aware of their overall position? One is inclined to say, ‘You bet.’ But exactly how we could have done that I am not so sure.”

No initial margins

This was not the time for the FOMC to design a regulatory apparatus, but the Greenspan Fed never did attempt to fill this gap. In retirement, Greenspan reminds his audiences that the Fed does not regulate hedge funds. True, but the Fed could have worked backward from the foundation that McDonough had suggested. (The SEC is responsible for monitoring broker-dealers. It, too, has failed miserably.) The need for adult supervision of banks was obvious when a staffer commented on the conference call, “It is something of a signature for [LTCM] to insist that if a counterparty wanted to deal with them, there would be no initial margin. Not many other firms have gotten away with that.” For this reason alone, the Fed should have geared up its watchdogs to better monitor the suicidal banking system it regulated.

Another staff member enlightened the FOMC with a frightful prospect: “The counterparties…get comfortable with zero percent margin. But from the [financial] system’s point of view, zero initial margin permits an essentially unlimited amount of leverage. There is no constraint other than the exhaustion on the part of the counterparties.” Greenspan and Bernanke fiddled with their slide rules as financial derivatives grew to 10 times the world’s GDP. In 2007, Bernanke should have known that banks, in a desperate attempt keep dancing, were borrowing at five percent to lend at four percent.

Swiss bank UBS makes front-page news on The Wall Street Journal for its thumping quarterly loss of more than $12 billion on write-downs of $19 billion. The losses have claimed chairman Marc Ospel.

– USA 2008: The Great Depression

Brit newspaper The Independent leads with “dismal projections” that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will rely on government food stamps to survive, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.

– Paulson plan will be DOA

Paulson plan will be “dead on arrival”, according to The New York Times, as “lawmakers and lobbyists from an array of industries” oppose to the plan to create a new financial regulatory system in the US.

– London stocks lift despite UBS writedowns

Shares in UBS and British banks Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Alliance & Leicester rise in London, despite heavy writedowns for the Swiss banking giant.

– Worst month for hedge funds since LTCM collapse

Figures from Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research show that the average fund tracked by its HFRX index was down 2.4% in March, its worst month since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998.

– Gas prices at record high

High crude oil prices are being passed on to US consumers. From Rueters: “The U.S. retail price for gasoline set a new high of $3.29 a gallon after rising 3.1 cents over the last week, the federal Energy Information Administration said on Monday.”

– Oil slides, dollar climbs

Oil is back at $101 a barrel as the euro fell to a six-day low against the greenback.

– Gold falls for fourth day

The yellow metal fell for the fourth consecutive day to $896.75 a troy ounce.