This from Money Morning:

For the 50 million Americans with 401(k) plans – many of them close-to-retirement Baby Boomers – the heavy lifting is just beginning.

In the 12 months after the U.S. stock market hit its record peak in October 2007, more than $1 trillion worth of stock-market wealth held in 401(k)s and other “defined-contribution” plans was eviscerated, The Wall Street Journal reported. The lost wealth is more like $2 trillion if individual retirement accounts (IRAs) are taken into account.

For many, the pain will be especially acute. For instance, workers aged 55 to 64, who have been contributing to the same 401(k) plan for the past 20 years, have seen their the 401(k) account balance plunge by a staggering 25%-plus since the start of 2008, according to research by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Since those figures don’t separate out new cash contributions to the plans, the statistics actually tend to drastically understate the actual level of losses, The Journal reported.

Given that many Americans were already trying to deal with major declines in the values of their homes – and given that thousands of households are dealing with, or are expecting, job losses – this eradication of their retirement savings is taking on a kind of “last straw” quality.

After all, any one of those three things alone  – falling housing prices, loss of incomes due to lost jobs or a retirement plan haircut – is tough enough to rebound from. But the combination of all three is the kind of triple-whammy that can put an entire economy out for the count.

“This is the biggest test that the 401(k) plan has seen to date, and it has failed,” Robyn Credico, head of defined-contribution consulting at Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW), told The Journal. “We’ve put people close to retirement in a very challenging position.”

There are plenty of ways to react, ranging from indifference to outright panic. Neither extreme will prove productive. However, there are some options in between that will form the foundation of any sound retirement plan rebuilding strategy.

After reviewing a plethora of options, Money Morning offers you the three best ones.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 1: Don’t Cash Out

Possibly the worst thing you could do to your retirement is cash in your 401(k) – a move that would level your finances come tax time, extend your pre-retirement career by a number of years, and/or reduce your income when you start retirement.

So let’s rule that out immediately. That will put you well ahead of others who didn’t resist this urge, or who were forced to make this unattractive choice due to extenuating circumstances.

In the last two months of 2008, requests to withdraw from retirement plans rose 59% from the same period in 2007.

Magnifying this mistake is the fact that the contributions participants have funneled into their retirement have steadily declined since July, HR consultancy firm Mercer Inc. reported after polling 1.2 million participants with employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans.

Luckily – for now – less than 1% of plan participants account for both these declines.

“What should sound the alarm with plan sponsors, however, is the growth trend, not the absolute figures. As most experts would agree, withdrawals from 401(k)-type retirement plans and reducing participant contributions to zero are two actions that are completely counter to preparing for retirement,” Eric Levy, Retirement Business Leader at Mercer, said of the firm’s poll. “This may point to the dire straits that a small-but-growing number of participants find themselves in where withdrawals and zero contribution rates are seen as a type of financial last resort.”

Levy raises the central issue: It’s less of a lack of faith that the markets will bounce back, and more of a basic need for money for daily expenditures.

That’s understandable, and excusable to a large degree. After all, you won’t be able to enjoy retirement if you lose your house in the process of putting away money for later.

But the bottom line is less money contributed now translates into less money you’ll have to enjoy life and meet your basic daily needs after you punch that company timecard for the last time.

Sometimes you have to take one step back before you can take two steps forward.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 2: Balance and Rebalance

The phrase “rebalance your assets” sounds intimidating. But 401(k) managers and financial planners know their clients aren’t financial wizards.

They know a large portion of 401(k) participants don’t have the time or knowledge to actively manage their plan’s holdings. And they know investors have different tolerances for risk.

That’s why 401(k) plans have asset-allocation models designed to assess a participant’s risk tolerance, manage that risk and maximize returns by setting a percentage for each category of assets. Over time, these ratios can change as some assets surge in value, while others hold steady or even decline.

That, in turn, could skew your asset allocation. Assets that performed well could now comprise 20% of the portfolio’s value, instead of once accounting for 15%, if other asset categories tanked.

Levy says that many employers offer quarterly or semi-quarterly rebalancing programs, as well as some that rebalance automatically.

“Conceptually, you should be regularly looking at the asset allocation of your account relative to your age and risk tolerance,” Levy said. “And [you should be] looking to rebalance that at least on an annual basis if not more often.”

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 3: It’s a Marathon, Not a Foot Race

Since 1947, of the 11 times the quarter-over-quarter change in gross domestic product (GDP) was a minus 4% or more, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was higher by an average of 25% one year later and 35% two years later.

This information especially applies to 401(k) participants. The reason: The more you invest when markets are down, the quicker you will recover the losses you sustained over the past two years.

Just take a look at the following chart.

“The latest projections suggest we’re right in line with historical norms, given that economists expect that the U.S. economy suffered a mind-numbing decline of 4.35% in the final quarter of last year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “When everyone else believes the worst; that’s when you should be buying.”

For prospective retirees – those who watched as their 401(k) plans trip and fall right before the finish line to their working days – take heart: The markets will rebound. It’s just not clear when. While that may mean you have to stay in the race a little longer, consider this: You’ll be able to keep contributing to your retirement cache, magnifying your retirement war chest when that rebound does come.

For those 40 and under, this is possibly the biggest opportunity to build long-term wealth in your lifetime. Keep saving. And stay focused.

Source: Retirement Strategies: The Three Best Ways to Rescue Your 401(k)

This from Taipan Daily:

I’ve got an interesting stat for you concerning unemployment. It doesn’t predict recessions or crashes mind you, just presidential elections.

Seems that our economy has a really tiny window of tolerance in this area. Looking back about as far as the modern records go, I noted that anytime unemployment is over 7% (deflationary) or below 4% (inflationary), the party in power loses the White House.

I was starting to wonder if this rule would hold up, when today’s announcement of 7.2% unemployment came across my wire service feed. My friend Christian Dehaemer says that “A: it happened after the election; and B: the statistical string is too short to generate any reasonable presumptions.”

Still the rule is holding up better than most.

Oil’s Big Bounce begins on January 21st

In just days, two key conditions for soaring petroleum prices coincide for the first time in history.

Here’s how you could play it for 190 times your money or more…

More Guesstimates

Other folks with other rules are also tossing their wizard’s hats in the ring: Boston Fed Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren claims that he sees the recession deepening in the first half of 2009, but showing signs of improvement shortly thereafter.

Parsing through his notes, Rosengren seems to think that folks will bank their relative gains from fiscal stimuli and falling home and energy prices for the first few months of the year. But come summer, or perhaps early fall, some of that largesse will finally begin to flow to (surviving) retailers.

Others are putting out a less optimistic timeline. Both Justice and I always look forward to Nouriel Roubini’s comments, as he was one of the few mainstreamers whose ideas on the dangers of our profligate ways jibed neatly with our own.

Mr. Roubini is calling for a two-year recession with unemployment rising to 9% and a GDP falling a cumulative 5%. Since we have already seen one year and a drop of around 1.6%, Roubini figures the recession will last through to 2010, with GDP drops each quarter totaling some 3.4%.

The Law of Averages Gets a C-Minus

Finally, there is a stat chart floating about the financial blogosphere (I believe that this is the very first time I have every typed that word without gagging: It is a new century indeed) noting that the average duration for recessions from 1948 through 2001 was a little over 10 months.

More importantly for stock guys and gals, it points out that in nine out of 10 recessions, the stock market sets a bottom about halfway between the beginning and end of the recession.

So let’s see how this all adds up: if the average is 10 months, then the average corner ought to come around the five-month mark. Hmmm: doesn’t quite seem to work this time around, as we are already at the 12-month mark for the recession, and we haven’t seen a real corner yet.

Come to think of it, it didn’t quite work last time around either: The 2001 recession was only eight months long (as least so far as Washington is willing to report), and came smack dab in the middle of a crash that lasted about three years.

Another Rule That Works Every Time

I am not really in a position to tell you for a fact how long this recession will last. But I do have an unerring system for calling crashes and corners.

I’ve shown it to you before: I overlay a seven-month and 13-month average on top of the S&P 100. When the faster seven-month line crosses under the slower 13-month line, it’s a crash. And I am not talking some little localized dip here, but rather a full-on bear market.

It may be simplistic but it works every time. It also calls real rallies with the same unerring accuracy: When the fast line crosses over the slow line, we are in for a pretty good time for the next couple of years.

Maybe not a perfectly straight line up: heck it’s not like this thing predicts wars in the Middle East or typhoons in Malaysia or any such foolishness. But it is an unerring summation of the long-term intentions of millions of investors.

No Bottom Yet, But That Doesn’t Mean No Opportunities

And what it tells me is that we have not seen the bottom yet. Indeed those two key averages are as far apart as they have been in the recorded history of this system. In fact, we haven’t even seen an initial signal, wherein share prices cross up and over the fast average.

So when can folks start to buy stocks? And what should they buy? Come on, that’s all you really want to know, right?

Since everyone else is making educated guesses, I suppose I can extrapolate just a touch without going off the ranch. Throw on a couple of long-term trend lines and a probable bottom shows up some time around mid-July 2009. With any luck, at all, we should see stocks trend upward for the next two to four years after that point.

Hold Your Nose for a Year or Five

As for what to buy and when to buy it, I suppose it all depends on your tolerance for volatility.

If you are willing to buy now and hold your nose till, say, 2012, I suppose you could buy most any of the surviving finance stocks. I know some pretty smart guys who are picking up shares of American International Group (NYSE:AIG) right now, figuring on quadrupling their holdings over the next half a decade.

On the same theme, I suppose Ford (NYSE:F) looks like it will be the survivor amongst the big three American automakers. It actually doesn’t want a bailout from Washington right now, just access to the same sort of lines of credit any large manufacturer needs to survive in the modern era of just-in-time inventories.

A Better Short-Term Bet

Looking to the shorter term, I favor putting a toe in the water now with call options against some the companies that will be immediate recipients of President-elect Obama’s stimulant efforts. In WaveStrength Options Weekly, Bryan and I recently recommended Granite Construction Inc. (NYSE:GVA), a smallish infrastructure contractor that is positioned to rake a fair share of Washington’s “Really New Deal.”

With some luck, and several billion of Washington’s fancy new dollars, GVA investors stand to make a 75% gain between now and mid-July.

However, without a genuine buy signal under my belt, I am still recommending that portfolios remain weighted to the short side overall.

And personally, I very much hope that the folks who call the stock market bottoms at the midpoint of recessions are really wrong this time around, as that would indicate a grueling three-year recession on par with the worst modern history has offered up.

I really don’t have that much room on my couch.

Source: Handicapping Recessions and Rallies for Fun and Profit