• Lukoil (OTC ADR: LUKOY), Russia’s second-largest oil producer said its new Artic oilfield would allow it to match last year’s production, Reuters reported. Oil output from Russia fell in the first six months of the year for the first time in a decade, due to aging infrastructure, maturing fields and heavy taxes.

• Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), America’s biggest gourmet-cookware retailer, yesterday (Thursday) announced second quarter net income fell to $18.4 million or 16 cents per share, from $26 million or 23 cents per share in the same period the year prior. Sales worsened through the quarter as the “macro-economic environment deteriorated,” Chief Executive Officer Howard Lester said, Bloomberg News reported.

• Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. (FGIC) avoided regulatory intervention by having MBIA Inc. (MBI) reinsure a portion of its municipal bond debt, but still faces solvency issues according to CreditSights. “While the deal will boost capital supporting the remaining FGIC policy-holders, it does little to solve the company’s longer-term solvency issues,” CreditSights analyst Rob Haines said in a report issued yesterday (Thursday), Reuters reported.

• Diageo PLC (ADR: DEO), London-based maker of Smirnoff vodka, Captain Morgan rum and others, yesterday (Thursday) said it earned $2.8 billion (1.52 pounds), an increase of 2.7% over the prior year. Diageo shares traded in London closed up 2% on the day of the announcement, the Associated Press reported.

• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) plans to layoff 1,500 employees. The battered investment bank will cut 6% of total employees prior to its announcement of third-quarter fiscal earnings on Sept. 15, The New York Times reported on its website yesterday (Thursday).

• Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM) lowered its 2009 sales forecast to 9.7 million vehicles from a previous estimate of 10.4 million based on slower global demand. “The business environment is rapidly becoming more difficult. Things remain very uncertain, not just in the United States but in emerging countries and resource-rich nations as well,” Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe told a press conference, AFP reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Friday, August 29th, 2008

• Shares of Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) rose the most in 20 years as it boldly announced it will buyback $1 billion of its stock using a tax refund. The refund comes from an audit of the company’s taxes from 1993 to 1998, Bloomberg reported. The company posted a first-quarter loss in April.

• Kroger Co. (KR), the largest chain of U.S. grocery stores, beat analysts’ first-quarter earnings by lowering prices on the shelves and offering gasoline discounts, Reuters reported. The Cincinnati-based company Kroger posted a profit of $386 million, or 58 cents per share, compared with a profit of $336.6 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter.

• BP PLC (BP) broke ground on a wind farm in Kansas yesterday (Tuesday), The Associated Press reported. The first phase of the project, located about 60 miles southwest of Wichita, is expected to generate up to 100 megawatts of electricity starting at the end of the year.

• India’s Reliance Entertainment and is in talks with Hollywood’s DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA) to raise up to $2 billion for a joint movie venture, according to a recent report by The Associated Press. There are four to five other parties involved in the talks, the AP said, citing sources close to the deal, including Universal Pictures. However, a deal will not be signed anytime in the near future.

• Lukoil (ADR: LUKOY) plans to pay about $2.1 billion for a 49% stake in a refining joint venture with Italy’s ERG SpA, MarketWatch reported. The two companies will jointly operate the ISAB refinery complex in Priolo, Sicily.

• Wachovia Corp. (WB) has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to evaluate its risky portfolio of adjustable-rate mortgages that give loan holders several monthly payment options including an interest-only option that increases the balance of the mortgage. Wachovia could be in the market to sell the portfolio, DowJones reported, which could lead to heavy losses for the bank.

• The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) announced yesterday (Tuesday) that it would increase prices as much as 25% to offset soaring petroleum and raw material costs. “The staggering increase in our costs over the past few months have forced us to take these further measures in order to restore our margins,” Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said in the statement, Bloomberg News reported.

• Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) shares climbed 2.75% yesterday (Tuesday) with a gain of 59 cents to close at $22.04 on speculation that the search engine firm could be back in talks with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). Several media reports citing undisclosed sources said the two tech firms were hashing out a possible deal for Yahoo’s online search business, MarketWatch reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

What’s tipping us off? The so-called Price/Earnings-to- Growth ratio, better known to investors as the “PEG” ratio.

Let me explain …

One of the most popular stock valuations is the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. If you take that calculation one step further and include a stock’s expected growth rate you hit on the P/E-to-growth ratio, or PEG ratio.

Analysts have been using PEG ratios for years, now, to pick undervalued stocks, but now you also can use that same ratio to determine which countries are trading at good value.

A recent Bespoke Investment Group report used the popular PEG ratio to identify which country’s stocks are currently undervalued.

“Late last year, we began performing this analysis on countries to get a better comparison of the valuations of both developed and emerging markets,” the B.I.G. Tips report read. “To do this, we divide the country’s [gross domestic product] growth estimate into the estimated P/E ratio of its major stock market index.”

Like an individual security’s PEG ratio, the lower the ratio, the more undervalued the stock.

The top-three spots on that list go to Russia (1.37), China (1.91) and India (2.06). Brazil clocks in at sixth with 2.80. Money Morning readers may recognize them as member of the “BRIC” nations – a term coined by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in 2003 identifying rapidly growing emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China). [For a complete listing of the PEG ratios of the respective countries, please see the chart below.]

Rounding out the top six are Malaysia (2.37) and South Korea (2.66), the latter of which is another investing favorite of both Money Morning and Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B).

The United States, on the other hand, comes in near the bottom with an estimated PEG ratio for 2008 of 11.39.

When using the calculations to make investment picks, it’s important to remember that both the P/E ratio and the 2008 GDP growth are only estimates. Still, it’s easy to see how fast-growing economies have the leg up on more mature markets such as Japan and the United States.

How to Play the PEG for Profits

One of the easiest ways for U.S. investors to cash in on a foreign country’s expected stock market growth is with an American-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) or exchange-traded note (ETN) that mirrors a foreign stock market index.

For the BRICs, you could try the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), the Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), the Barclays IPath India Index ETN (INP), or the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI).

If you prefer to stick to individual securities:

Russia: OAO Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY), the state-owned natural gas monopoly with ambitions to control Western Europe’s gas supplies.

Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY), the other obvious Russian heavyweight, is the largest state-controlled oil company.

China: A terrific way to play China is with the Region Opportunity Fund (USCOX), a mutual fund run by San Antonio-based U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW). Indeed, U.S. Global, itself, is a pretty good play on international growth. It manages some of the best emerging-market funds, and natural-resources funds, in the business. As global growth fuels global investments – and it will – U.S. global will see more money pour into its funds, boosting the management fees it collects, as well as its profits and stock price.

India: One of India’s titans is Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM), which recently sealed both ends of the consumer automotive spectrum with its forthcoming $2,500 Nano and its recent $2.3 billion acquisition of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands.

Another is option could be the pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (RDY). As many U.S. pharmaceutical patents expire in the next five years, this major generic-drugs manufacturer can expect to benefit.

South Korea: Back in October 2007, Buffett took a 4% stake in this country’s Number One steelmaker, POSCO Ltd. (PKX). Studies have shown that following Buffett’s investment moves, even months after the fact can be the pathway to profits.

Brazil: Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, now referred to only as Vale (RIO), is an iron-ore company with ancillary operations in gold, nickel, copper and other metals. It’s one of the true global blue chips, with a market capitalization of almost $200 billion.

Another Brazilian firm worth a look is Petrobras (PBR). It’s one of the few emerging market oil companies with access to modern technology – and the willingness to work with the oil majors.

Source: Popular Stock Indicator Tells Investors to Hit the BRICs

Judging by the performance of outgoing President Vladimir Putin, Europe should beware: The so-called “links” he’s seeking may resemble those used to chain together prisoners in the Gulag.

On the other hand – though it’s admittedly unpleasant to say so – there’s a point at which the effects of high oil prices are so great that in the short run they far outweigh one’s distaste for the thuggish Russian regime. And at $123 a barrel, we may be at that point.

Politically, Russia has pretty much reverted to the pre-1991 Soviet system.

Today, just like then, there’s only one real party: The United Russia party, which controls 315 of the 450 seats in the Duma (essentially the lower house of parliament) and whose leader is one Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. There is considerable censorship of the media, and dissident reporters and editors have a habit of disappearing – not that there are many left now. There is huge emphasis on military power, and on throwing Russia’s weight around in foreign policy.

What’s New About the “New” Russia

However, there are a couple of significant economic differences between today’s Russia and the pre-1991 Soviet Union. One key difference is economic: While the state still controls most of the property today, it doesn’t control all of it, as it did before 1991. Even so, foreign investment in strategic sectors of the Russian economy was effectively banned by a decree of May 5. For this purpose “strategic” covers not only the military sector and energy, but also more than half of Russia’s output.

So, if the afore-mentioned difference is one of substance, this next one is all about style. Prior to 1991, Politburo members were relatively impoverished and notorious for their baggy Soviet suits and lack of fashion sense; these days, the top brass – and especially Putin – are snappy dressers with a nice Italian wardrobe, and bank accounts to match.

Putin’s even viewed as a sex symbol: In a recent No. 1 single in Russia, a female pop star cooed that she needed a new boyfriend and that “Takogo kak Putin” (he must be like Putin), and not a useless wimp like her last beau!

If you analyze the economic impact of Putin’s regime since 2000, you’ll find the result has been huge economic growth – an annual average of nearly 10% since that time with growth of 8.1% in 2007. Now a certain percentage of that was due to the proverbial “dead-cat bounce” as the economy recovered from the debilitated state it had reached by 1998-99. An additional portion reflected the benefit of a Ronald Reaganesque tax reform passed in 2001, which produced a “flat tax” income-tax system with a rate of 13%.

That caused many conservative U.S. commentators to favor the Putin regime in its early years, despite the signs of human rights abuses. However, since the arrest and imprisonment of oil company tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the looting of his company Yukos, it has become obvious that the nominal rate of income tax doesn’t matter much when the state can – and does – seize anything it wants.

Since at least 2004, Russia’s economic growth has been driven almost entirely by high oil prices. At first, oil production increased along with prices, producing real economic progress. Since Putin’s partial seizure of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A, RDS.B) concessions in 2006 and BP PLC (BP) earlier this year, it has become obvious that the Russian state will control all economic activity in the energy sector. As a result, output has now stopped increasing and in this year’s first quarter it actually declined slightly.

I wouldn’t want to be a wealthy entrepreneur in today’s Russia, no matter how many bodyguards I surrounded myself with. At the same time, however, there’s also no question that some of the benefits of economic growth have gone to the Russian people – something that was rarely, if ever, true under the old Soviet system.

Consumer spending rose 12% in 2006 and matched GDP growth of 8% in 2007. With a current account surplus of $74 billion in 2007, foreign exchange reserves of $470 billion and ever-escalating oil prices, Russia’s ruble has been strong, making imports super cheap. Given the lack of high quality goods in Russian stores before 1991, and the impoverishment of the country in the 1990s, this consumer boom is not surprising. But it does mean that there are finally investment opportunities in Russia outside the energy sector, in places where the Russian government’s heavy hand is less evident.

As long as global oil prices remain high, or continue increasing as they have in the past five years, Russian energy companies will make record profits and Russian consumers will enjoy a bonanza, producing profits in consumer sectors also. Once energy prices turn around, Russia is in trouble. However, there is no sign of that yet, and at least in the short term, there’s money to be made from the continued advance in energy prices.

Politically, it’s unclear how much of a difference Medvedev will make, since, after all, Putin will now serve as prime minister (one news report described Medvedev as the “puppet president” of Putin’s).

To be sure, as the former CEO of Gazprom OAO (OTC: OGZPY), Medvedev has at least a basic knowledge of how business works. And it’s likely that he’ll continue to follow Russia’s current “mixed economy” policy, meaning that “strategic” sectors will remain government playthings, while non-strategic sectors such as consumer goods are pretty much left to operate freely – and unharmed. Russia even intends to use its version of a “sovereign wealth fund” to go on a bit of a global buying spree, although it remains to be seen just how aggressive it will be.

Presumably, if Putin had wanted to restore full Soviet Communism he would have chosen someone else; that at least is a consolation.

Cashing in on Russian Capitalism

Does this leave any real plays for U.S. investors? It does, but you must keep in mind that this is a highly speculative market, and that you should be ready to sell if U.S. interest rates are increased. The reason: An upward increase in U.S. interest rates could cause a reversal in energy and commodity prices, which would have a major impact on the Russian economic advance. Here are a few Russian profit plays to consider:

• OAO Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY): This is one of the obvious Russian plays, the state-owned natural gas monopoly with ambitions to control Western Europe’s gas supplies. Since its ambitions don’t yet extend to the U.S. market, it is quoted only on the Pink Sheets. It has a Price/Earnings ratio of 12, based on trailing earnings, but gas prices and Gazprom’s dominance are both rising.
• Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY): The other obvious Russian heavyweight, Lukoil is the largest state-controlled oil company; again, the firm doesn’t care if you buy the stock, meaning it also is only available through the Pink Sheets. This one has a trailing P/E ratio of only 8, and that was based on 2007 earnings when oil prices for the year averaged $80. A good speculative play on a further run-up in oil prices.

Moving outside the oil sector, there are two mobile telephone companies you might look at:

• Vimpel-Communications (VIP): This company has 55 million subscribers and mobile operations in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Georgia and Armenia. Right now, it trades at 22 times trailing earnings, but only 13 times forward earnings. It does pay a dividend, but the yield is only 0.9%. I slightly prefer its collection of non-Russian operations to those of MBT (the Russian operator we’ll get to in a moment) – you especially want Kazakhstan, which is oil-rich.
• Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MBT): This mobile operator has 73 million subscribers and operations in Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. It is cheaper than Vimpelcom, trading at only 14 times trailing earnings and 12 times forward earnings, and it has a dividend yield of 2.5%.
• Finally, for a flyer on Russia’s consumer-oriented agribusiness, albeit an expensive one, you might look at Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods OJSC (WBD), which manufactures and sells branded dairy, juice, water and baby-foods products in the Russian market. The shares trade at a pricey 37 times trailing earnings, and the forward P/E of 21 isn’t much of an improvement. The dividend yield is tiny at 0.1%. However, earnings are racing forward as the Russian consumer market opens up to quality branded goods.

Don’t put your retirement savings in the Russian market – Vladimir Putin might get tempted! However, for a modest oil-related flutter, Russia is well worth a look.