• Investors yesterday (Monday) cashed in on profits from Friday’s market rally, which followed better-than-expected unemployment news. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.33% to 1,007.10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to 9,337.95, down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,992.24, a decline of 0.40%.

• Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) offered more than $170 million for bankrupt Fontier Airlines Holdings (OTC: FRNTQ). That’s up more than 50% from its first offer of $113.6 million. The move is intended to head off a bidding war with rival Republic Airways Holdings (Nasdaq: RJET). The winning bidder will get a stronger foothold in the Rocky Mountain region.

• General Motors Co. (OTC: MTLQQ) is partnering with eBay Inc.(Nasdaq: EBAY) to sell cars and trucks on a new portal sitestarting today (Tuesday). The joint venture will involve roughly 225 California dealerships and will run through September 8. If the program is successful, it could expand nationally as soon as next month, The New York Times reported.

• Shares of Dish Network Corp. (Nasdaq: DISH) rose more than 4% yesterday (Monday) to close at $19.30, as the satellite television provider reported its first increase in subscribers in more than a year, adding 26,000 new customers. Still, high expenses from increased marketing and patent dispute litigation with TiVo Inc.(Nasdaq: TIVO) caused Dish’s profit to fall to $63.4 million, or 14 cents a share, in the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $335.9 million, or 73 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue was flat at $2.9 billion.

• Bankruptcies among U.S. consumers grew by more than 126,000 in July, representing a 34% increase over July 2008, Bloomberg News reported, citing the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI). “Rising unemployment on top of high pre-existing debt burdens is a formula for higher bankruptcies through the end of this year,” ABI Executive Director Samuel Gerdano said. The increase came after bankruptcies in the first six months of 2009 grew 36.5%.

• U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deserves another term based on his success in battling the financial crisis, Nobel Prize winner and Princeton University economist Paul Krugman toldBloomberg News in an interview. “He turned the Fed into the financial intermediary of last resort,” Krugman said. “When the banking system failed to deliver capital where it was needed, he put the Fed into the markets.” In 2000, Krugman was recruited by Bernanke to join Princeton. Bernanke’s term ends on January 31 2010.

• Fast-food giant McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) reported its same-store sales for July rose 4.3%. Sales in the United States grew 2.6%, Europe sales were up 7.2%, and sales in the Asia/Pacific, Middle Eastern and African markets rose 2.1%. The company attributed the growth to a strong reception of its McCafe espresso-based coffees, a tiered-menu approach and longer operating hours. “With July’s improved trends, we are encouraged by (McDonald’s) ability to gain or maintain share in a still challenging environment,” Oppenheimer analyst Matthew DiFrisco said in a note to clients.

• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) will pay $55 million to employees of its Countrywide Financial Corp. to settle a class-action lawsuit in which the employees accused Countrywide of misleading them about its financial health and causing the value of their retirement plan to drop, Bloomberg News reported. Lawyers for the employees called the settlement “fair, reasonable and adequate.” BofA acquired Countrywide in January 2008.

Source: Investment News Briefs Tuesday, August 11, 2009

• Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index flirted with 9,200 and 2,000 yesterday (Thursday), respectively. Thanks to a continuing string of better-than-expected earnings reports, the Dow jumped 83.74 points, or  0.92% to close at 9,154.46. The tech-heavy Nasdaq eclipsed 2,000 in trading before finally settling in at 1,984.30, up 16.54, or 0.84%, its highest close since October 1. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 also posted a gain, closing at 986.75, up 11.6 or 1.19%. “Institutional and retail investors are so anxious to make up the lost returns of the last year, they are using any cue to buy aggressively,” Kevin Mahn, managing director and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh told MarketWatch.com. “We got to the point in the first quarter, when everyone was so risk averse they lost out. And, in just six months, they have now become overly aggressive.”

• U.S. taxpayers yesterday (Thursday) became Citigoup Inc.’s(NYSE: C) largest shareholder with a 34% stake in the company. The federal government swapped $25 billion of its $45 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) investment into common stock. The remaining $20 billion will remain in the form of preferred shares that pay an 8% annual dividend.

• Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 584,000 last week the Labor Department said yesterday (Thursday). However, the number of people still on benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid fell by 54,000 to 6.20 million in the week to July 18, the lowest since early April. That fueled optimism that the economy is on the mend.

• Light, sweet crude for September delivery yesterday (Thursday) rose $3.59, or 5.6%to settle at $66.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The surge left some analysts miffed, as there was no obvious motivation. “You need to really worry about a market that sells off on a very large build and supply one day, and then it rebounds on no headline at all,” analyst and trader Stephen Schork told The Associated Press.

• Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) yesterday (Thursday) posted an unexpected profit for the second quarter after several quarters of losses. Motorola said cost cuts including 8,000 layoffs so far this year were largely responsible for the turnaround. Revenue dropped 32% to $5.5 billion for the quarter, but the company reported a profit of $26 million, or 1 cent a share. That’s up from $4 million a year ago.

• The worst recession in more than 60 years is taking its toll on theWalt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) advertising and theme park revenue. The Burbank, Calif.-based company saw its net income drop to $954 million, or 51 cents a share for the quarter ended June 27. That compares to a net income of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share in the same quarter last year. Operating income from its highly seasonal theme parks dropped 19% to $521 million in the quarter, compared to last year’s $641 million, which was up 3% from 2007. Advertising on its media networks which include ESPN decreased: The operating revenue was down 13% to $1.3 billion, compared to last year’s 9% increase to $1.5 billion.

• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer weighed in on the beating his company’s new partnerYahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) took Wednesday, when investors unloaded shares to send Yahoo’s stock down more than 12%. “People haven’t figured it out,” Ballmer said. “Yahoo gets 88% of the search revenue they have today. They have 0% cost of goods sold against 88% revenue and they have no [research and development] expense and no ongoing [capital expenditure],” Ballmer said in a Dow Jones Newswires report, which cited an event at Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond, Wash. Yahoo’s Wall Street beating continued yesterday (Thursday), with its shares closing at $14.60, down 54 cents or 3.57%. Microsoft’s shares climbed 1 cent yesterday, closing at $23.81, up .04%.

• Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) made a minimum bid of $113.6 million for Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. (OTC: FRNTQ) in a bankruptcy auction that would eliminate its low-fare rival. The bid would compete with a pending offer of $108.8 million fromRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: RJET). The winning bidder will get a bigger foothold in the Rocky Mountain region. “Taking the Denver gates and equipment from Frontier would give them a large presence there, and the cities that aren’t on Southwest’s route map now could easily be integrated,” said Dave Swierenga, president of an aviation consulting firm AeroEcon toldBloomberg News.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 31, 2009

• Regulators will hold hearings this month and next to possibly limit the holdings of energy futures traders, including index and exchange-traded funds. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold hearings in the next two months to consider the need for government-imposed restrictions on speculative trading in oil, gas and other energy markets, Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement. “Our first hearing will focus on whether federal speculative limits should be set by the CFTC to all commodities of finite supply, in particular energy commodities such as crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, gasoline and other energy products,” Gensler said in the statement. “This will include a careful review of the appropriateness of exemptions from these limits for various types of market participants.” The CFTC did not give dates on when the hearings would be held or who would speak at them.

Source: Investment News Briefs Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), which reports today (Monday), remains among the last financials of note that has yet to announce its first-quarter performance, and the big bank figures to get a lot of attention as investors look to see how well Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (formerly known as “The Bull”) and Countrywide Financial Corp. have fit into the BofA family fold.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) (today) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) (Wednesday) will give investors a better idea of just how well the tech sector – which up to now has been quite hot – is really doing. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) (Thursday) will give investors an inside look at the health of the retail sector – especially the online variety.

Coca-Cola Inc. (KO), which reports tomorrow (Tuesday) and McDonalds Corp. (MCD) (Wednesday) should help us see whether consumers are so gassed that they can  even afford dollar sodas and burgers (or are buying more in lieu of dining at more-expensive restaurants).

Several economic reports will be worth a look, too. Home sales data for March highlight the economic calendar and analysts are eager to see whether February’s enhanced activity was the start of a trend or just an anomaly.  Interest rates are down; home prices are low, first-time buyers have tax incentives to buy.  Could the February and March numbers represent the start (continuation) of a housing rebound?  It’s going to happen at some point, and don’t forget that housing expert Andrew Waite, the publisher of the Personal Real Estate Investor magazine, recently told Money Morning that the recovery is already under way.

Market Matters

Strike up the band; let the good times roll; banks are making money again (or not losing quite as much). Earnings season moved along and financials led the charge with (somewhat) favorable reports.  Both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JP Morgan-Chase & Co. Inc. (JPM) announced better-than-expected quarters and key execs insisted they will pay back those TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Plan) dollars sooner than later.  While Goldman appears set to raise funds through a new stock offering (which will dilute current shareholders), JP Morgan insisted no similar issuance will be necessary.  With its $1.5 billion profit, Citigroup Inc. (C) looked quite promising relative to its $5 billion shortfall a year ago.  Still, some analysts claim the recent results reek of income-statement “shINTCenanigans” (and unsustainable bond trading gains), which is why they say that they will await the results of the independent stress tests in a few weeks, figuring that these  results will paint a more accurate picture of these banks’ operations.

Turning to techs, Intel Corp. (INTC) and Google Inc. (GOOG) reported stronger-than-anticipated quarters, but with caveats.  Despite claiming that the ailing computer industry may be “bottoming,” Intel refused to offer an outlook for the current quarter.  Google, on the other hand, enjoyed net-income growth, although the company experienced a decline in revenue (from the fourth-quarter 2008) for the first time in it five-year history as a public company.  While cell phone giant Nokia Inc. (ADR: NOK) suffered a drop in earnings, management reported optimistic signs of greater stability in the industry.  Conglomerate General Electric Co. (GE) posted a 35% decline in earnings, but still beat the Street outlook.  Airlines did not fare quite as well as both American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (AMR) and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) posted troubling losses, and warned of more turbulence to come.

In non-earnings news, The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) bucked the recent cost-cutting trend and announced a dividend increase.  Mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP) filed for the biggest bankruptcy-protection case in the history of the real estate industry as the Chicago-based company attempts to restructure its debt positions, a move that underscores the concerns Money Morning recently raised as part of an investigation into the looming problems in the commercial real estate sector.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) moved beyond new Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA) overtures, claiming a reluctance to be drawn into a long antitrust battle.  Despite that failed deal, the boardrooms appear a bit more active these days as transactions highlighted the business news of the week.

American International Group Inc. (AIG) is selling its personal auto insurance line to Zurich Financial Services (OTC ADR: ZFSVY) for slightly less than $2 billion, the first of many such moves for the bailed-out insurer.

Express-Scripts Inc. (ESRX) will acquire WellPoint Inc. (WLP) for $4.68 billion to better compete with industry leader Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) in the pharmaceutical-benefits-management space.

Rosetta Stone Inc., a language-education specialist, underwent an initial public stock offering (IPO) that reminded some of the “Go-Go” dot-com days as its stock soared about 40% on the first day of trading, the most successful offering in a year.

After five straight weeks of positive stock returns, U.S. stock experienced an early-week pullback, before charging ahead on the financials’ earnings reports.  “Six weeks and counting” have investors surmising that the rise may actually be more than a short-lived bear market rally (though the Nasdaq Composite Index remains the only key index in positive territory for the year).

Economically Speaking

Perhaps taking advice from spin-doctors, both U.S. President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week put a more optimistic (though realistic) face on the current state of the economy.

Said Bernanke: “Today’s economic conditions are difficult, but the foundations of our economy are strong, and we face no problems that cannot be overcome with insight, patience, and persistence.”

Said President Obama: “By no means are we out of the woods just yet, but from where we stand, for the very first time, we are beginning to see glimmers of hope.”

Additionally, the Fed Beige Book reported an ongoing contraction throughout the country, but implied that certain regions “saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level”

President Obama also welcomed Cuba back into the global economy (to a limited degree) by lifting trade restrictions (telecommunications-related) and allowing increased travel and additional financial payments from Cuban-Americans to family members.

A hectic week on the economic calendar brought some mixed – and confusing – results, as usual. After a few stronger months of consumer activity, retailers struggled again in March as sales took a surprising tumble across most categories. Industrial production fell for the fifth straight month, revealing that manufacturers have a long way to go before declaring recovery.

On the other hand, while housing starts declined in March, the losses were attributed to apartment construction, and single-family residential activity was reported flat (similar to February); some optimistic analysts – like magazine publisher Waite – predicted the worst had ended for the housing sector.

Both the retail and wholesale inflation gauges dropped in March with the consumer price index (CPI) experiencing its first consecutive 12-month decline in prices since mid-1955.  While some pessimists in the bunch were quick to play the deflation card again, most seemed content to proclaim that price pressures are simply one aspect of the economy that warrants little to no worry in the present environment.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Earnings Reports Will Play a Key Role This Week

You can find Debbie Downers in the stock market as well. Today’s example is Mattel (NYSE: MAT). After it reported lower earnings and an 11% drop in sales, it dragged Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) down with it.

The reasoning behind most of these moves is that the pressures hurting one company in a sector should be impacting the competition as well.

But that isn’t always the case.

We can find numerous examples of companies in the same industry with the same pressures that deal with those challenges differently. Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) was able to put up considerable numbers over the past year as it’s competition suffered greatly. It did this by hedging its oil costs correctly.

Maybe Hasbro hasn’t done the exact same thing as Mattel – and will report similar earnings figures? But who’s to say they did. As smart investors, we cannot assume that is the case. As of this writing, Mattel is down 16% and Hasbro is down 9%.

Lets think about that, a 9% percent drop on no information about their business model. It’s the kind of emotional movement that value investors love.

Source: Mattel’s (NYSE: MAT) New Doll: Debbie Downer

Here are eight stocking stuffers to unwrap.

1) The conversation between Libertarians and the rest of us (who aren’t on some nutty fringe) would go a lot smoother if we would all agree that laws and regulations do not prevent bad behavior.

Rather, they are merely guideposts to measure the quality of deviance in a way that allows the US’s local, state and federal judiciary to hand out retribution.

If you need further proof of this, I offer you two words – Bernard Madoff.

In an under-regulated world, Ponzi schemes might not be illegal. In fact, you can assume that is a near certainty, judging by the number of famous institutions and wealthy people that poured billions into Madoff’s fund, even as they suspected he was cooking the books.

The allure of that steady 9% return was just too strong… flies to the dung heap.

You have to wonder how many of Madoff’s investors will not only lose millions on the madman’s fund, then double those loses when the IRS goes all militia on their wacky offshore tax schemes. The latter is one of 2008’s most under-reported financial stories… as it will likely be in 2009.

2) Poor and middle-class people dream of the big investment score – the lottery… wealthy people, as the Madoff affair demonstrates, get all dewy eyed over 9%.

The reason is simple. Nine percent of $10 million is $900,000. That’s enough to survive on, even if it’s your only income. On the other hand, try living on 9% of $200,000 or 9% of $100,000…

Actually, if you don’t have health insurance and you live in a tent, you can probably stretch $18,000 out through a year, as long as you don’t pay the capital gains tax on it.

3) Now that the conservatives on the Supreme Court have opened the door for a new round of huge lawsuits against the Altria Group, you have to wonder what would prevent the President-elect, who can choke down some Marlboros, from joining a class-action suit.4) Here’s a play for all those union-hating people who believed, without verifying, all the recent bunk about how the United Auto Workers union is killing US automakers.

There is LUV in the air for you. Southwest Airlines trades around $7.50 today. Many of its employees, 7,200 ground-crew workers, haven’t had a raise since 2005. Ten-month long negotiations with these workers broke down in October.

LUV is profitable, its debt is manageable, and its earnings and revenues are slated to increase by about 10%. Additionally, though I hate the quarterly reporting game, LUV seems historically adept at producing earnings surprises on a regular basis.

Still, the best part of this play is it’s so Reaganesque… Southwest seems to hate its employees.

Nevertheless, LUV looks like one of 2009’s share-price doublers.

5) Here’s a sweet play that should tap into the infrastructure mania that’s about to sweep the world.

Find someone to give you good, long odds on an under/over bet that you won’t be reading at least 199 “First Great Obama Stock” promotions in the coming six months. Take the over.

Hell, I got an “Obama stock” via fax the other day – some 22-cent West Virginia coal play. Damn thing went up 10 cents the next day, too.

6) If you want to play the coming Obama/worldwide economic-stimulus infrastructure bubble, you’re going to have to get in soon.

In China, that would mean jumping on low prices General Steel Holding (NYSE:GSI). I’ve known the GSI guys for five years now – even before they were public.

Actually, I took a bunch of investors over to Beijing in 2004 and introduced them to the company just two hours before it went public.

Great company… great CEO… great management (much of its top management and board are from what I affectionately refer to as Beijing’s born-again Christian mafia).

Its earnings are slated to jump out of the roof next year. At around $4, GSI is a wicked steal.

GSI is one of 2009’s potential share-price triplers.

7) If you want to stay closer to home and still play the great-infrastructure-bubble-of-2009, then take a good look at Pasadena, California-based Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:JEC). But, do it fast, because it is destined to be a newsletter darling next year.

Multifaceted, JEC provides technical, professional, and construction services to industrial, commercial, and governmental customers worldwide.

It designs and engineers manufacturing plants that make chemicals and polymers, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, oil and gas refining, food and consumer products, and basic resources industries

It also designs and engineers infrastructure projects such as highways, roads, bridges, and other transportation systems, as well as water and wastewater treatment plants, water resources facilities.

Most analysts agree that JEC should see a nice jump in earning next year. It has a tiny amount of debt, which make its 20.5% return on equity that much more impressive.

JEC has the very real potential to be one of 2009’s safest share-price doublers.

Do your own homework on Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), Vodafone (VOD), Cosco Singapore (CSCMY)… each could have a smoking hot 2009.

That’ll do it for this week. I’ve been traveling so, I need get home to Boston and get some of that New England Christmas spirit going.

Of course, one of the season’s happiest symptoms is the fact that so many of us return to a naïve child-like state that peace on earth – even for a few weeks – seems like a noble goal.

Merry Christmas (for those among you that find such a salutation applicable).

Source: Double- and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009

More from Today’s Financial News:

After nearly a decade of getting kicked around by the nation’s investors, airlines are finally starting to get some positive attention. More importantly, the barrens of the friendly skies are finally starting to look like profitable ventures.

Notice, however, that I “starting” to “look” like profitable ventures. As of last quarter, the only major airline to post a profit was AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR), the owner of American Airlines. And its earnings were a mere pittance of total revenues.

All the rest, companies like Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), and United Airlines (NYSE:UAUA), all lost significant sums of money.

But the airline environment is drastically different than it was just a few months ago. For one thing, oil prices are significantly lower. Even better, it looks like folks are still willing to take to the sky even as the economy slows. Airline bookings have exceeded industry estimates.

Just as I said in an earlier article, the outlook may not be that bad for the nation’s economy.

Blazing the trail

While industry sentiment is on the rise, investors are looking at other airline industry news today.

I am sure you have already heard Northwest and Delta have finalized their merger deal. In a $2.6 billion all-stock acquisition, all of Northwest’s operations will be under the Delta umbrella by next spring.

The deal created the world’s largest airline, a veritable flying behemoth. With over 75,5000 employees, routes to 375 cities and 66 countries, Delta will be the industries dominant player.

That is, unless another super-airline emerges.

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You see, the real news from the Delta/Northwest merger is not that the combined company will create $2 billion in revenues and cost savings for Delta, with over $500 million in savings next year.

What investors are truly celebrating is the fact that such deals are possible. When federal regulators gave their nod, it proved to investors that mergers would be allowed and showed the synergistic qualities such moves could make.

Now investors in airlines like United, American, and Southwest are wondering what lies in store for them.

Everybody wants in

Across the Atlantic, Sir Richard Branson, the owner of Virgin Atlantic is digging through his contact list looking for an opportunity to strengthen his airline’s core business. Rumor has it, he may be close to a deal with a long-time rival, British Midland Airways.

All across the airline industry, share prices are soaring today. Investors are looking into the future and liking what they see.

That is good news for investors that bought shares last week. What about folks looking to invest today?

I say, do not fall into the airline trap. The gains will not continue.

The nation’s airline industry has been in trouble for nearly a decade. A slowing economy, fuel prices that remain historically high, and a customer base that absolutely hates the service they are receiving is far from good news.

Instead of investing in a risky, cyclical business like an airline, search out companies with strong histories of success that are selling at decade-low prices. For a list of four of my favorites, click here.

Source: Airline industry finds some wings

British Airways (LON:BAY) CEO Willie Walsh says it’s “the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced.”

But crude oil’s retreat from its early-July peak has led investors back into the industry, says Martin Denholm in The Smart Profits Report.

And Martin’s colleague Marc Lichtenfeld has given potential investors two stocks to watch should the uptrend continue. Here’s more from Martin…

If the world’s airlines were on the singles scene, looking for potential mates, many of them would be out of luck.

Having dressed themselves up as best they can, slapped on their best deodorant and after-shave, you can picture them at the end of a night of unsuccessful bar-hopping, looking drunk and desperate.

After all, what do they have to offer? It’s a grim business at the moment, with oil prices having pushed companies to breaking point and fuel prices now sucking up the bulk of annual expenditure.

Take British Airways, for example. The company reported a 90% plunge in its first-quarter profits, as fuel costs soared by 49%. BA projects a meager 3% rise in revenues this year in what CEO Willie Walsh calls “the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced.”

What’s This? A Pleasant Airline Experience?

For all its British charm and tagline as “the world’s favorite airline,” BA hasn’t helped its cause this year, thanks to the PR disaster around the opening of its swanky new Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport in London.

Computers crashing. Thousands of bags lost. Hundreds of flights delayed or cancelled. The terminal resembled more of a campsite than anything else, as passengers lay around, increasingly not expecting to fly, but hoping to.

I’ve flown BA many times. They’ve always done the job pretty well. But over the past few years, the company’s higher prices (relative to other airlines – and especially in terms of taxes) have put me off.

Still, I chose BA for my recent trip back to Britain – and was impressed. Yes, BA ticket prices rose 7% over the past quarter, due to its fuel surcharge increase. But I nipped in ahead of the most recent hike.

Besides, the height of summer means there’s little difference between airlines’ overall prices. Plus, it was a direct flight from Baltimore, with the best departure and arrival times. Not to mention… free booze! As most other airlines charge for drinks, BA has maintained its free alcohol policy on international flights. And I’m not ashamed to say that I took full advantage! There was also a plentiful and diverse selection of in-flight entertainment. And no charge for checked bags or headsets. We Brits can be a generous bunch!

Consolidation Amid Chaos

It’s transatlantic routes that BA is depending on to generate a sizeable chunk of its revenue, and it seems the airline will take another stab at arranging a mega-alliance with American Airlines.

With the Open Skies transatlantic agreement having increased competition, the current state of the airline industry means that more co-operation is probable. Airlines cannot afford to get into a cost-cutting war with each other at a time when profits are elusive anyway.

Last week, BA detailed plans to merge with Spain’s Iberia, but its proposed alliance with AA (in conjunction with Iberia) will have to satisfy authorities that it doesn’t break antitrust laws. While not an official merger, complete with costs and bureaucracy, it allows airlines to split routes, charge the same prices, and share profits and costs.

Northwest and Delta have already succeeded in this type of deal with Air France-KLM (EPA:AF), but the BA-AA agreement might be harder to push through, as it would create a “dominant mega-power on transatlantic air routes from two of the largest EU members,” according to a spokesman for Virgin Atlantic.

This isn’t a new development for BA and AA. The two firms originally applied for antitrust immunity in 1997 and again in 2001, but BA refused to bow to regulators demands to give up what it thought were too many landing slots at Heathrow.

But with Iberia now on board (pardon the pun), the two hope for a positive outcome. They already have strong links through the One World Alliance and Iberia’s inclusion would give BA and AA a route into the Latin American market, where neither holds a dominant position. In addition, the firms argue that recent consolidation has already strengthened the position of some of its rivals.

And now that the Open Skies agreement has made Heathrow available for other airlines – rather than the previous arrangement, whereby just four transatlantic carriers could fly in there (BA, AA, United and Virgin) – the deal has a better chance of success.

Relief… From Oil

In addition to its transatlantic alliance efforts, BA (and indeed other airlines) is enjoying some much-needed respite from the oil market’s recent decline. With prices having slipped from $147 to around $119 in the space of just a few weeks, my colleague and commodities expert Lee Lowell said in his “Commodities Corner” column yesterday that the next support point could be $107 if the current downtrend continues.

Once upon a time, that price would have caused heart attacks among airline executives, but after this year’s brutal price runup, they’d gladly take it now.

Seems like a drop in oil demand from businesses and consumers alike because of the high price is finally leading to some air being let out of this blown up market. Having fallen for four straight weeks, gasoline prices are down 6% from their peak in July.

And the drop is helping the airlines…

Go Contrarian… It Works

Take a look at this chart…

It’s a yearly chart of the AMEX Airline Index (XAL). Note how the drop in oil prices over the past month has led investors back towards airline stocks.

Back on June 3, my colleague Marc Lichtenfeld highlighted XAL and pointed out that the industry may well be in line for a rebound if it could shrug off its two-year downtrend and form a “basing” pattern. Here’s what he said:

“Keep an eye on the XAL chart. Should the index “base” (stop going down and then flatline), or even reverse the downtrend and head higher, the market is likely signaling a recovery.

“I wouldn’t necessarily get into airline stocks for the long term, as I believe the business model is flawed, but an intermediate-term trade seems quite reasonable once the bleeding stops.”

In the column, Marc gave two airline stocks for potential investors to watch – Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV). Alaska Air has edged down just 2.7%, while the ever-popular Southwest has reaped better rewards, jumping 21%.

And as Marc noted from his own recent flying experiences, flights remain very full – a trend that held true on my Baltimore-London round-trip, too. The depressed dollar and lousy exchange rate certainly didn’t seem to put many folks off a jaunt to England. Not a spare seat to be had. Same story on the way back, too.

Don’t get me wrong… airlines remain in trouble and a return to profitability seems a very long way off for many of them. But if oil prices continue to fall and stabilize, it can only spell good news for this most beleaguered of industries and gives it a chance to get back on its feet. Or, more appropriately, take off.

Source: As Oil Goes Down, Airline Industry Rebounds

Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.

Economists hope for another positive showing for manufacturing from the ISM index, especially on the heels of last week’s strong durable goods data. Finally, Exxon-Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) headline this week’s installments in the ongoing earnings season as investors get a reprieve from the weak financial releases and see just how much record oil and gas prices have padded the pocketbooks of those energy-sector executives [Click here for additional insight on Chevron, in Money Morning’s new “Buy, Sell or Hold” feature.]

Market Matters

The Federal Communications Commission late Friday approved the $3.3 billion merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR), a move that means the still-nascent industry might actually be able to operate at a profit. [Please click here for a complete news story on this satellite radio merger posted elsewhere in this issue of Money Morning.]

With the immediate threat of a Freddie Mac (FRE)/Fannie Mae (FNM) failure looking less and less likely, investors were able to focus more on the heart of earnings season. Thus far, the results have been mixed (or confusing) at best. Of course, financials took top priority (again) as the nation’s largest bank by asset size, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), saw its profits decline by more than 40%, much to the delight – that’s right, delight – of investors who feared much worse. Wachovia Corp. (WB) followed up with a trifecta of bad news:

• A greater than expected loss.
• A dividend cut.
• And some employee pink slips.

And yet, its stock price was up for the week as investors began to believe the worst of the news may be behind us (a feeling that will only last until the next bit of bad news hits).

Outside of the financial world, investors had plenty of reasons to grin. Heavy equipment-maker Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP), communications staple AT&T Corp. (T) and the world’s biggest drugmaker Pfizer Inc. (PFE) each announced strong earnings. Even Internet retailer Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) shrugged off prospects for weak consumer activity and raised its year-end forecast. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) accomplished what none of its competitors could do by reporting its 69th consecutive profitable quarter, thanks to some “ingenious” hedging moves. On the downside, US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), UAL Corp. (UAUA), and JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) suffered along with the rest of their winged brethren; Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) showed that even discounters can struggle during dire times (apparently consumers can’t afford bulk purchases); and Ford Motor Co. (F) posted its worst quarter – ever. [Please click here for a “Buy, Sell or Hold” analysis of Ford shares elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) had trouble dealing with the higher gasoline costs, while Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) lowered its outlook for the year. Some reports required a tad bit more analysis. While Apple Inc. (AAPL) rejoiced over its “best June quarter for revenue and earnings” in its history, it disappointed investors with a weaker-than-expected end-of-year forecast.

Toymaker Hasbro Inc. (HAS) benefited from strong demand for “Iron Man” products, though management worried about the holidays as the company finds itself forced to pass along higher gas prices to consumers. Merger talks resurfaced (another sign of business optimism) as drugmaker Roche Holding Ltd. (OTC ADR: RHHBY) will acquire the remaining shares in Genentech Inc. (DNA) it doesn’t already own. Finally, Carl Icahn will have more say in the future of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) deals as he and his “cronies” will be given three seats on that “infamous” board.

Consumers got an even greater reprieve from recent energy woes as oil prices continued their decline, and crude even dropped below $123 for the first time in several weeks. Likewise, gas prices declined to just above $4 a gallon nationally (a drop of 10 cents per gallon) as the higher weekly inventory report revealed a continued slide in demand, and as service stations owners looked to regain those gas-guzzling customers.

While investors tried to make sense over the recent earnings reports, some took solace in the lower energy prices, and hope the “trend” continues as summer travel winds down and the holiday shopping season approaches.

A surprisingly weak housing report put a damper on the newfound optimism from the oil decline and prompted some late-week selling that moved the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index into the red for the week. Still, the general mood seems to be changing, as investors are more willing to dip their toes back into the equity pool – though let’s hope they do so without badly stubbing their toe in the process.

• Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) yesterday (Thursday) announced that second-quarter revenue increased 15% due to the advance purchase of fuel contracts, Bloomberg News reported. Second quarter earnings increased to $321 million or 44 cents per share for the Dallas-based air carrier. Even without the boost from fuel hedging, Southwest would have earned $121 million or 16 cents per share, beating analyst expectations.

• The national minimum wage in the United States increased yesterday (Thursday) by 70 cents, bringing the federally mandated hourly rate to $6.55. This is the second increase in a three-stage plan to eventually boost the rate to $7.25 per hour under the Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007, CNNMoney reported.

• Mobile phone manufacturers Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) and Nokia Corp. (ADR: NOK) struck a deal to end a long-running patent dispute over wireless technology causing both stocks to gain in trading yesterday (Thursday). Under the terms of the agreement, Qualcomm extended a 15-year license to Nokia to utilize its patents for use in Nokia mobile devices and wireless-networking equipment, MarketWatch reported.

• Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) announced yesterday (Thursday) that second-quarter profits jumped threefold to $905.1 million, or $2.82 a share, from $285.7 million, or 88 cents a share for the same period the year prior. The fertilizer company attributed the gains to strong global demand for potash, nitrogen and phosphate products, MarketWatch reported.

• The number of people filing claims for unemployment benefits soared over 400,000 last week as companies trimmed their work forces to cope with a slowing economy. The Labor Department reported yesterday (Thursday) that the number of new applications filed for these benefits rose by a seasonally adjusted 34,000 to 406,000 for the week ending July 19.

• Ford Motor Co. (F) posted the worst quarterly performance in its history yesterday (Thursday), with a second-quarter loss of $8.67 billion. The net loss included $8.03 billion worth of write-offs because the sharp decline in U.S. truck and SUV sales has reduced the value of Ford’s North American truck plants and Ford Motor Credit Co.’s lease portfolio.

• The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) said yesterday (Thursday) that despite record sales and two double-digit price increases, second-quarter profit fell 27%, due to higher costs for energy and raw materials. The world’s second-largest chemical company said its net income for the three-month period ended June 30 was $762 million, or 81 cents per share, compared with $1.04 billion, or $1.07 per share, in the same period last year. Revenue rose 23% to a company record $16.38 billion, MarketWatch reported.

• Macau’s casino revenues jumped 48% in the second quarter, as its 30 casinos brought in $3.6 billion in the three months ended in June, compared with $2.4 billion last year. Higher VIP baccarat revenues, up more than 52% to $2.5 billion compared with a year ago, were the biggest factor, the Associated Press reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups: Friday, July 25th, 2008