I call them the “zombies,” the institutions being propped up by government bailouts. Companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC, etc. On an operating level, these walking dead are sucking the life out of the recovery.

Unlike in previous downturns, huge resources have been devoted to propping up entities that should have been taken out of the picture.

Of course, it’s easy to avoid zombies directly. No one is going to force you to take a position in GM. But if you really want to know where to look for the bargains – for companies that have the greatest potential for serious growth in real numbers and real markets – you need to look for what I call “zombie-free zones.”

Unfortunately, the United States and the United Kingdom are not “zombie-free” zones – and thus offer the worst hunting ground available right now.

If you’re looking for something solid, there are only three places to aim your portfolio. In fact, my top three picks are…

Germany, Korea, and Canada.  All have an abundance of companies you can invest in with at least a good chance of not being forced to compete with the undead.

The Problem with Zombies

You see, the problem with zombie banks and companies is that they soak up resources that should be devoted to living banks and companies, while providing unfair competition that makes their competitors unsound.

It’s difficult to see this effect at the moment, because the U.S. Federal Reserve is propping up the banking sector. It’s much clearer in the automobile sector, where the zombies GM and Chrysler make it more difficult for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) to compete. There’s no question that the continued existence of Chrysler after its first non-bankruptcy in 1979 drastically weakened Ford in the 1980s and 1990s.

There’s the effect on wages too. The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is a huge supporter of the GM and Chrysler rescues, partly because they keep UAW members employed at above-market wage rates. One certainly can sympathize with the great many American autoworkers that have lost their jobs, but by keeping the sector over-employed, the government is driving up wages and hurting businesses – particularly Ford, the only member of Detroit’s “Big Three” to not ask for a bailout.

The same effect can be seen in the banking sector. The bonus pool at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is partly inflated by the continued employment of all the Citibankers who should have lost their jobs. Since banking pay scales got over-inflated during the bubble, it is reasonable now for them to come back down to earth, but that’s not going to happen while banks are in their current undead state.

Turning to the international market, it is immediately clear that Britain has the same problem as the United States, only on a larger scale. Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (NYSE ADR: RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (NYSE: LYG), two of Britain’s largest banks have been kept open by the government. (Though, to be fair, Lloyds only got in trouble because the government made it acquire another failing bank, HBOS.)

Financial services is a huge part of Britain’s economy, which needs to diversify, but it won’t be able to diversify if so much of its talent is locked up in banking, and its best graduates are sucked into the high-paying dealing rooms of the City of London.

Japan has the same problem. Here the zombies are really ancient, cobwebbed skeletons left over from the 1990 collapse of Japan’s bubble. Some of them were put out of their misery by Junichiro Koizumi, the reformist prime minister, in 2003. Yet just this week we learned that many Japanese retailers face losses because of competition from The Daiei Inc. and Ito-Yokado Co. Ltd., gigantic retailing companies that were effectively bankrupt in 1993 but have been propped up by Japan’s banks. If you’re afraid of zombies, Japan is really creepy!

Historically, Europe is the continent where investors have suffered most from zombies propped up by governments. Certainly some countries, notably Italy, are attractive only for investment necrophiliacs.

Where to Find “Zombie-Free Zones”

There are some exceptions. Germany has only a few relatively small zombies. Both Sachsen LB and IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the banks that got in trouble buying U.S. subprime mortgage-backed bonds, have been sold to other buyers – Sachsen to a larger Landesbank and IKB to the private equity group Lone Star Funds. Whatever their subsequent fate, those banks are currently being managed on a profit-maximizing basis.

There is a large older zombie, Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the former Bayerische Hypothekenbank, which got in trouble in the late 1990s lending to real estate in the former East Germany, but that appears an isolated example. Industrially, Germany has been admirably rigorous in cleaning up its dead companies, and with its new pro-market government looks attractive for zombie-fearing money.

In Asia, South Korea is probably your best bet. The country had a big zombie problem ten years ago, but that problem has been cleared up with the bankruptcy and reorganization of several conglomerates and much of the banking system. This time around, there have been few major casualties and so the economy looks relatively zombie-free.

Finally, there is our northern neighbor, Canada. Canadian housing never became as over-extended as U.S. housing, and the Canadian bank bailout was correspondingly smaller, with none of the banks facing bankruptcy. Canada had a bad zombie problem fifteen years ago from decaying heavy industry, but today those zombies are long gone and the Canadian economy is resilient. The most recent bankruptcy, Nortel Networks Corp. (OTC: NRTLQ) in Jan. 2009, is being handled in a thoroughly market-oriented fashion, with its assets being sold off piecemeal. So your money is safe in Canada – lots of snow, but no zombies!

Source: Why You Need to Look at these Three ‘Zombie-Free Zones’

Brazil had clearly become the new “must-play” market for investors.

And then they had to go and spoil it all.

As promising a market as Brazil had become, it was the discovery of the massive Tupi oil field off of the country’s east coast – that really transformed Brazil into an investor’s dream. The oil and natural-gas reserves are located beneath heavy salt beds in deep offshore water. These reserves are 23,000 feet to 26,000 feet down, a depth that wasn’t even accessible until recently.

These Tupi reserves appear to contain at least 60 billion barrels of oil, worth $4 trillion at today’s prices. Tupi oil is expected to start hitting the market in 2011 or 2012. When that happens, it will revolutionize Brazil’s economy and its shift its balance of payments.

The exploration of the Tupi oil fields had been carried out by the Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE ADR: PBR) – more commonly referred to as Petrobras – in partnership with some of the international majors. The contracts call for the Brazilian government to receive royalties on any oil found.

Brazil is now one of only three top oil-producing countries to not assert state ownership of its oil reserves. Canada and the United States are the others.

This was very reassuring for the international oil majors. They’re used to dealing with fruitcake kleptocratic regimes in Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria and most of the Middle East. As a result, the Tupi deposits generated real excitement both among oil companies and among international investors in general. The feeling was that Brazil was about to end its two centuries of failed economic hopes. Fueled by oil revenue and additional economic activity, Brazil appeared ready to claim its true destiny as a wealthy country.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.

Although there are several reasons for this, a key culprit is the election scheduled for next year. Incumbent Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva can’t run again. But he’d very much like to choose his successor. The most likely candidate: current Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff.

Rousseff was put in charge of devising a scheme to capture more of the Tupi oil revenues for the Brazilian government and, nominally, the Brazilian people. Tales were spun of how the new revenue would finally eliminate Brazilian inequality, and bring its poorest citizens up to Western living standards.

The new system announced this month reflects this aspiration. A new state oil company, Petrosal, would be created to manage the reserves. Petrobras – aided by outside investor capital – would carry out production. And Petrosal and the outside investors would share the output.

This plan will imbue Petrosal with a lot of power. The company would control half the votes on the operating consortium. And it would have veto rights over production and capital expenditures.

The revenue would be managed by a new state fund. The fund would devote this new cash to poverty relief, education and infrastructure.

In the meantime, the existing royalty system would remain in place. Under this system, outside investors would pay both royalties and a production share. In one acknowledgement of marketplace realities, concessions already granted would not be torn up.

There are two major problems with this system. First, it makes life much more difficult and less profitable for oil companies wanting to invest in the Tupi oil field. Had Brazil torn up existing contracts, I believe the oil majors would have left. In the past two years, the world’s Big Oil firms already saw existing agreements torn up in Nigeria and Venezuela. There’s just no point investing large amounts of money under such risky conditions.

As it is, the new Brazil agreement applies only to new contracts. So I believe the oil companies will probably put up with this new system – at least as long as oil prices remain high. It’s not as if these firms have a lot of alternatives right now.

However, given how expensive it will be to extract this oil, if market prices drop, it may end up being difficult to attract Big Oil players.

The more dangerous problem is this fund, which is little more than a huge pool of money that politicians can play with.

As I mentioned, Brazil’s economy has been one of the world’s best performers. This year, in the face of a worldwide recession, Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline only 1%, according to the forecasting panel of The Economist magazine.

Inflation is 5% and the budget deficit is only 2.8% of GDP – both excellent figures in this difficult year. Brazil’s monetary policy is an example to the world, with short-term interest rates still at 8.65%, well above the inflation rate.

But this money pool plan puts that performance at risk.

Brazilian public spending is already 35% of GDP, very high for such a poor country. State bureaucrats have feather-bedded contracts guaranteed to them under the 1988 constitution. So this “slush fund” will just fuel Brazilian corruption, diverting still more of that country’s economy into the pockets of politicians, their friends and favoured interest groups.

It’s no use for Brazilian spin-doctors to point out that Norway and Alaska have funds of this nature. Norway and Alaska have small populations and relatively un-corrupt political cultures. This fund must inevitably represent at least 3%-5% of Brazilian GDP. And it will be mostly wasted, spent without the market having any say as to its use or destination.

I’ve been watching Brazil for more than 30 years; since I began travelling there for the merchant bank Hill Samuel [now part of Lloyd's Banking Group PLC (NYSE ADR: LYG)] in the late 1970s. It’s a maddening country: Just when you think the Brazilian authorities have finally got their act together, and that the country is ready to achieve the enormous economic growth predicted for it since at least 1900, something unexpected and foolish goes wrong.

This appears to have happened again. And that’s a real pity – for Brazil’s citizens, and for global investors.

Source: The World’s Most Exciting Market – Until They Spoiled it

• Two people told Reuters that General Motors Co. (OTC:MTLQQ) is prepared to sell Opel, its European carmaker, to Canada’s Magna International Inc. (NYSE: MGA). The board of trustees that controls a majority stake in Opel has the last word on which Opel’s buyer will be. GM was thought to be selling Opel to either Magna of RHJ International SA.

• Nearly 360,000 U.S. housing units – or an average of one in every 357 units – filed for foreclosure in August, down 1% than in July. Nevada remained the state with the highest foreclosure rate, one in 62 units, for the month, followed by Florida’s rate of one in 140,MarketWatch reported.

• The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and kept plans to buy as much as $290 billion (175 billion pounds) in assets to prevent the U.K. economy from slumping further into recession. The U.K.’s FTSE-100 Index responded to the move by rising above 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year, Bloomberg News reported.

• Emerging market stocks, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, are at their most expensive level in nearly nine years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valuations are 19.9 times earnings, and emerging market shares have risen 53% this year as a result of global government stimulus packages, interest-rate cuts, and optimism that the financial crisis is over.

• House prices in England rose 0.8% in August, their second consecutive monthly gain, according to a survey by HBOS, which is owned by Lloyds Banking Group plc (NYSE ADR: LYG). Prices are at nearly the same level as the beginning of 2009, but 10.1% lower than they were in August 2008, MarketWatch reported.

• Turkey’s economy shrank 7.0% in the second quarter, Turkish Statistics Institute said, a sharp pace but a much better performance than the 8.0% decline many analysts expected,MarketWatch reported. The second-quarter figures are much better than Turkey’s 14.3% gross domestic product (GDP) tumble in the first quarter. Thursday’s data “showed that Turkey has become the latest economy to emerge from recession, rebounding strongly in the second quarter of this year,” Neil Shearing, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

• Japan’s third-largest brewer Suntory Holdings Ltd. is in talks to buy drinkmaker Orangina – maker of Schweppes, Oasis and other brands – from Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) The brewer seeks to expand outside its domestic market, which entrenched deeply in recession during the global financial crisis. “Purchasing Orangina would be a stepping stone to further development in global markets, including Europe,” Shigeo Kikuchi, an equity manager at Takagi Securities Co., told Bloomberg. “Japan’s beverage industry is saturated and companies need to look for overseas markets to grow so the move is inevitable.”

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, September 11, 2009

In 2008, his fund returned 37%  – in a year where the typical hedge fund lost 19%.

Since last September, Paulson earned nearly $420 million shorting the stocks of some U.K.-based bank stocks – specifically Lloyds Banking Group PLC (ADR: LYG), and the former HBOS PLC (which Lloyds absorbed in January).

Paulson clearly does his homework, and now he’s turned his attention to gold.

In a recent move that garnered much industry attention, Paulson acquired an 11.3% stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (ADR: AU). At $32 per share, that acquisition set him back a cool $1.28 billion. British mining giant Anglo American PLC (ADR: AAUK) was the beneficiary of Paulson’s acquisitiveness, for it sold Paulson the AngloGold shares from its own stake in that company.

So let’s think about this for a moment. A single transaction shifted a significant portion of ownership, and more than $1 billion in cash, strictly between two parties:  No banks and no stock markets took part in the deal.

Besides his 11.3% stake in AngloGold (the world’s fifth-largest gold miner by market cap), Paulson also owns 4.1% of Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC), making him that gold company’s fourth-largest shareholder.

It seems this prescient investor is in good company, too.  David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital Inc., with $5 billion in assets, also began buying gold earlier this year – for the very first time.

Noted value investor Jean-Marie Eveillard holds $1 billion in a vault near Times Square as “calamity insurance.” What’s more, as much as 8% of his First Eagle Global Fund is comprised of bullion and gold miners’ shares.

In the case of Paulson, the billionaire hedge-fund investor, his exceptional skill lies in his ability to foresee extreme financial episodes. From there, he decides how to position his funds to benefit from a likely outcome.

And that’s why we should all pay close attention to his most recent actions.

The very day after Paulson’s acquisition of AngloGold, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would buy back a total $1.25 trillion of long-term Treasury bonds and Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) mortgage junk. That is essentially a monetization of the debt.  And that’s a red-carpet invitation for inflationary times (which is also the best time to play gold).

Pure coincidence? Maybe. But it’s a lot more likely that one of the savviest investors of our recent era is really onto something.

Source: If You Follow the (Smart) Money, Gold is Clearly the Smart Play

• Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. regulatory system must impose constraints on companies using risky strategies that could cause them to collapse, posing danger to the financial system. In prepared testimony for the House Financial Services Committee, Geithner said rules must be in place to keep companies from causing “grave damage” to the economy, citing the failure to rein in excesses at American International Group Inc. (AIG) and other companies.

• Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the U.S. economy should start growing by the end of the 2009 and that unemployment will begin reversing course in 2010, Reuters reported. Evans also said regulation will be closely studied after the crisis is over.

• The Bank of China posted a 59% drop in fourth-quarter profit, taking losses from U.S. mortgage investment write-downs and higher bad-loan provisions. “People knew Bank of China would underperform peers in 2008 because of the investment loss, but we are still surprised by how much it missed the estimate,” Liu Yinghua, a Shenzhen-based analyst at Ping An Securities Ltd. who plans to maintain her “neutral” rating on the stock, told Bloomberg. “There’s a silver lining though: it has a clean slate to start in 2009.”

• Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) said it plans to quickly pay back the $10 billion in TARP money it was given last October, an unnamed company source told The New York Times. Goldman was the largest recipient of TARP money and is paying a 5% interest to taxpayers for it.

• Inflation in the United Kingdom unexpectedly rose 3.2% in February from the year earlier. Food prices rose despite recession, but Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the increase will likely be followed by a “sharp decline,” Bloomberg reported.

• The New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq Stock Market and BATS Exchange want regulators to adopt a “modified uptick rule” to curb abusive short selling. The top three U.S. exchanges said in a joint letter yesterday (Tuesday) to SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro, that the old uptick rule — which was removed in 2007-likely wouldn’t work in today’s fast-moving markets, Reuters reported.  Instead, they are pushing for a new rule that would only allow shorting at a price above the highest available bid.  The old rule allowed short sales anytime the last sale price was higher than the previous price.

• Lloyd’s of London Banking Group Plc (ADR:LYG), the world’s biggest insurance market, said insurers are poised to raise prices in 2009, as declining investment yields on U.S. Treasuries pressure results. Clients with windstorm damages, owners of airplanes and bank executives can expect to see higher rates as insurance companies were squeezed last year by the costliest hurricane season since 2005 and declines in the value of bonds held to back policies.”There will be a move in rates to make sure that underwriting in 2009 is profitable so that insurers have the funds to pay claims,”Chief Executive Officer Richard Ward, told Bloomberg in an interview yesterday (Tuesday).

• Copper futures ended lower yesterday (Tuesday) amid profit-taking from a rally that has seen prices climb more than 30% this year and hit their highest levels since early November. On Monday, data showed China’s implied copper demand surged almost 44% in February from January on the back of record high imports, fueled by both commercial and strategic stockpiling, Reuters reported.  Copper for May delivery shed 3.5 cents, or 1.9%, to close at $1.806 a pound in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX.

• Mexico’s inflation rate slowed in early March, after consumer prices rose 6.25% in the 12 months through mid-February, the central bank said yesterday (Tuesday).  The government has frozen or trimmed some energy prices, including electricity rates, since January to shield households and businesses from the global economic slowdown.  The government is hoping reducing inflation will give the central bank more room to cut interest rates in order to boost the flagging economy, Reuters reported.

Source: Global Investment News Briefs Wednesday, March 25, 2009

“The global market has ceased to function,” British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said yesterday at a press conference in London. “The banking system must be sounder, and that is why we are putting the capital in.”

Under the plan, the U.K. Treasury will provide $43.5 billion (25 billion pounds) to recapitalize banks and boost their Tier 1 capital ratio. A bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio is a key indicator of the firm’s financial strength. An additional $43.5 billion (25 billion pounds) will be available if needed.

In addition, the Bank of England, the nation’s central bank, will increase the amount of funds available for short-term lending to $346 billion (200 billion pounds). The plan further guarantees an additional $432 billion (250 billion pounds) in loans.

“The Bank of England will take all actions necessary to ensure that the banking system has access to sufficient liquidity,” the central bank said in a statement, The Financial Times reported. “In its provision of short-term liquidity the Bank will extend and widen its facilities in whatever way is necessary to ensure the stability of the system.”

The Bank of England also cut its benchmark lending rate a half-point bringing it to 4.5%. [Please click here for a related story on the coordinated global central bank rate cuts in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

The following banks plan to take advantage of the government assistance:

• Abbey National PLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Spain’s Banco Santander SA (ADR: STD),
• Barclays PLC (ADR: BCS),
• HBOS PLC (ADR: HBOOY),
• HSBC Holdings PLC (ADR: HBC),
• Lloyds TSB Group PLC (ADR: LYG),
• Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (ADR: RBS),
• Standard Chartered PLC,
• And Nationwide Building Society.

Other U.K. banks and building societies are invited to apply for the program as well, The FT reported.

Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 Index hit a four-year closing low as it dropped 5.2% despite the government’s bailout package and the rate cut.

“These measures will not, of course, prevent the recession which is already underway. The aim is to reduce the risk that recession turns into depression,” Citigroup Inc. (C) economist Michael Saunders told MarketWatch.

Saunders cautioned that additional government measures could be needed to stabilize the British economy, including further capital infusions.

“We are probably not even half way through the decline in U.K. house prices. We are not even close to half way through the U.K. recession,” Saunders said. “Much of the economic pain still lies ahead.”

Source: U.K. Unveils Its Own Banking Bailout Package