Is this the beginning of a new bull market or just a last-gasp bear market rally? We just don’t know. We’ve got a hunch is all. According to value investing guru David Dremen, it doesn’t matter much, either.

What can we tell you about the US stock market that you don’t already know deep in your belly? This is a stimulus rally, pure and simple. It’s one big bet that the government’s funny money will lift up stocks out of mire of the recession… and send them to the moon!

The rally in US stocks that began on March 9, 2009 has seen a 49.4% gain. And despite our deep suspicions here at Notes, it’s lasted 22 weeks. Does this mean we’re tempted to buy into stocks now?

Where are we now? It’s a question we’ve been grappling with here at Notes since the bizarre events of March 9, when equities took off on a wild run. They haven’t stopped since.

What the heck is going on? The Dow has just had its best weekly performance since March 2000. CNBC is full of whopping and high-fiving. The Obama administration is breathing an audible sigh of relief. And mom and pop investors all across the US are no doubt considering putting more of their savings back into the market.

The stock market seems to be rolling over. Investors read the news. It’s probably
becoming clear to them that the economy is not going back to normal any time soon.

ChartoftheDay.com had an update of their chart labeled “Depression-Era Bear Market Rallies (Dow 1929-1932)” which is interesting in many, many ways, starting with the fact that it only concerns one particular three-year span, which implies that thereafter there were no more bear market rallies of note, …

But the surge in pay is still keeping millionaires on the sidelines.  Simon Mellon, of our new Bonner and Partners Family Office service, has been eyeing the sentiment of high net worth Americans.  And the picture ain’t pretty.

The markets have been choppy over the last couple of days. This is hardly surprising, with one of the most bizarre quarters in living memory drawing to close. To say recent indicators are a “mixed bag” is an understatement Consider the following (hat tip, Dave Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff):