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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; market volatility</title>
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		<title>Will the California Crisis Cripple the United States?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/will-the-california-crisis-cripple-the-united-states/18641</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/will-the-california-crisis-cripple-the-united-states/18641#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:53:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budget Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Income Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Rally]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Consumption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury Yields]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=18641</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The markets have been choppy over the last couple of days. This is hardly surprising, with one of the most bizarre quarters in living memory drawing to close. To say recent indicators are a “mixed bag” is an understatement Consider the following (hat tip, Dave Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff):</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>British GDP shrank 2.4% in the 1Q (more than the 1.9% shrinkage expected)</li>
<li>The VIX – a widely used measure of market volatility is – fell 25 points. But it’s still 25% higher than average.</li>
<li>US equity trading volume is also down – signaling a lack of demand… and a possible sagging in the recent bear market rally</li>
<li>US Treasury yields have remained more or less unchanged over the month of June despite the boys at&#8230;</li></ul>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The markets have been choppy over the last couple of days. This is hardly surprising, with one of the most bizarre quarters in living memory drawing to close. To say recent indicators are a “mixed bag” is an understatement Consider the following (hat tip, Dave Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff):<span id="more-18641"></span></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>British GDP shrank 2.4% in the 1Q (more than the 1.9% shrinkage expected)</li>
<li>The VIX – a widely used measure of market volatility is – fell 25 points. But it’s still 25% higher than average.</li>
<li>US equity trading volume is also down – signaling a lack of demand… and a possible sagging in the recent bear market rally</li>
<li>US Treasury yields have remained more or less unchanged over the month of June despite the boys at the Department of the Treasury flooding the market with an impressive $176 billion in new issuance</li>
<li>Crude oil prices are up over $71 a barrel. Meanwhile, the IEA has lowered its forecast for oil consumption. (There is enough storage for 62 days of global consumption – 10 days above Opec’s stated goal.)</li>
<li>June auto sales are will come in at about 10 million units annualized. This is less than 50% their peak and roughly back at levels last seen in the 1960s.</li>
</ul>
<p>Rosenberg writes that “the crisis at the lower levels of government in the US is now so intense that as many as TEN states may not have a budget prepared for the fiscal year that is about to commence next month!”</p>
<p>Wow!</p>
<p><em>Notes</em> faithful will be aware that we view the fiscal crisis in California as a precursor of what’s to come in America. The mechanics of this are very simple. The government spends too much money out of an empty pocket to appease and please. It relies on a just about half of the population (according to the IRS the top 50% of earners pay 97% of income taxes) to contribute the majority of the tax revenues. This upside down pyramid eventually topples (revenues shrink while spending increases), and the government is thrown into a “budget crisis” (which is really a spending crisis by a different name).</p>
<p>The US federal government isn’t far behind state governments (a) because it has a larger tax base to rely on and (b) because it can borrow seemingly infinite amounts of money on the international debt markets thanks to the dollar’s status as world’s reserve currency (foreign governments and banks need dollars to buy a wide range of commodities, which are priced in the US currency).</p>
<p>But one day (sooner rather than later in our humble opinion) foreign buyers of US debt wake up and realize that huge increase of dollar-denominated debt on the market is causing the value of the buck to decline… and they look for alternatives.</p>
<p>This is happening already. China and its fellow “Bric” nations, Brazil, Russia and India are already vocalizing their discontent with the dollar-pegged system. The problem is they don’t yet have an alternative mechanism to the dollar. But they’re working on it. And when they come up with an answer to their dilemma, $174 billion in Treasury bonds a month will no longer find a happy home. The feds will have no alternative but to raise yields to attract investors. Higher yields mean higher borrowing rates overall, which mean you can forget about a sustained recovery or a return to the golden years of US economic dominance.</p>
<p>According to Rosie, the situation in the ten problem US states “is so acute that state governments are now threatening to go after unused gift cards for sales revenues — affecting $7 billion of income for the retailing sector.”</p>
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		<title>Warning: If You Ignore Volatility, You Will Lose Money in Today’s Market</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/warning-if-you-ignore-volatility-you-will-lose-money-in-today%e2%80%99s-market/17263</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2009 13:38:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[position sizing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Van Tharp]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=17263</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The top 30 most volatile days for stocks since  1969, bar one, all occurred in 2008.<strong> </strong>The one exception was in November  1987, shortly after the Black Monday wipe out. These are the startling results compiled by one of  our favorite market gurus Dr Van Tharp. </p>
<p>Tharp is a trading psychologist and the  author of one of the best books ever written about making money in the markets,  <em>Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom</em>. His key insight into trading is that  position sizing as a way to control risk is critical to success. </p>
<p>Tharp used a measurement called Advanced True Range  (ATR) to analyze market volatility since 1969. ATR is a way of measuring the  degree of price movement of securities&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">The top 30 most volatile days for stocks since  1969, bar one, all occurred in 2008.<strong> </strong>The one exception was in November  1987, shortly after the Black Monday wipe out. These are the startling results compiled by one of  our favorite market gurus Dr Van Tharp. <span id="more-17263"></span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">Tharp is a trading psychologist and the  author of one of the best books ever written about making money in the markets,  <em>Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom</em>. His key insight into trading is that  position sizing as a way to control risk is critical to success. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">Tharp used a measurement called Advanced True Range  (ATR) to analyze market volatility since 1969. ATR is a way of measuring the  degree of price movement of securities developed by J Welles Wilder and  introduced in Wilder’s seminal 1978 book on trading, <em>New Concepts in  Technical Trading Systems</em>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">By calculating the ATR as a percentage of the close  of the S&amp;P 500 index, Tharp reveals that the top 10 most volatile days for  stocks in the last 30 years all occurred in October of last year. And that the  period from March 3, 2009, to March 12, 2009, the beginning of the current  rally, was one of the most volatile periods in history.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">Why is this important? Well, as Tharp says, “recent  volatility has been off the charts.” And every period of extreme volatility,  <em>with the exception of the March 2009 period</em>, are associated with stock  market collapses. (The top four most volatile periods since 1969 were October 9  2008 to November 7 2008; October 19 1987 to November 17 1987; July 22 2002 to  August 9 2002; and September 27 1974 to November 4 1974.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">In other words, there’s a strong historical  relationship between extreme volatility and bear markets – except in the case of  the current rally in stocks. As readers know, we are deeply suspicious of the  drivers of this rally. And Tharp’s work makes us even more so. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">This doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made for  nimble investors. But given that May’s volatility levels (as measured by ATR%  close values) are still highly volatile, trend following, even on the short  side, is unlikely to yield favorable results… unless you are able to withstand  large whipsaw actions against you. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">Tharp says one of the best ways to trade the market  right now is an options strategy “that captures premiums with very little risk.”  This is a highly advanced trading strategy. And you need Level 3 clearance from  your broker to execute it. But once you get this clearance the results can be  nothing short of stunning. <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/"><strong><em>Notes</em></strong></a> contributor and market “geek”  <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/charles-delvalle">Charles Delvalle</a> scored a 100% win rate with this strategy last year.  He calls  it the “payout method,” because you literally get instant payouts to your  account every month by capturing options premiums. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;">The average payout during the “alpha trial” phase  was $2,504. Charles is looking for 365 more beta testers for highly lucrative  strategy. If you’re interested in receiving these payouts in return for beta  testing the strategy, follow </span><strong><a href="https://www.web-purchases.com/SI2/E940K5D6NIUEDM/landing.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Verdana; color: #0000ff; font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">this  link</span></span></a></strong><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: x-small;"> to learn more. (Please act fast,  as the next payout is due on June 19.) </span></p>
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		<title>Two Ways To Make Money From Market Volatility</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/two-ways-to-make-money-from-market-volatility/15228</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:52:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Karim Rahemtulla</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buying Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Covered Calls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karim Rahemtulla]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WFC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15228</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The stock market is a volatile, unforgiving beast. Now more than ever. The current rally aside, it’s eating many investors’ portfolios alive &#8211; and may well do so again in the near future. The question is, though… has this hurt you or actually helped you? </p>
<p>You may be surprised to learn that you can actually harness market volatility and make it work for you, not against you, allowing you to recoup losses and even make money.</p>
<p>Do you know how to do it?</p>
<p>The truth is… the stock market hates volatility. And suffice it to say that investors also loath the daily swings that can take their portfolios down 10% one week and back up again the week after. That’s if they even&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The stock market is a volatile, unforgiving beast. Now more than ever. The current rally aside, it’s eating many investors’ portfolios alive &#8211; and may well do so again in the near future. The question is, though… has this hurt you or actually helped you? <span id="more-15228"></span></p>
<p>You may be surprised to learn that you can actually harness market volatility and make it work <span style="text-decoration: underline;">for</span> you, not <span style="text-decoration: underline;">against</span> you, allowing you to recoup losses and even make money.</p>
<p>Do you know how to do it?</p>
<p>The truth is… the stock market hates volatility. And suffice it to say that investors also loath the daily swings that can take their portfolios down 10% one week and back up again the week after. That’s if they even have the will to stay invested, of course.</p>
<p>But there is a select group of investors who <span style="text-decoration: underline;">relish market volatility.</span> They thrive on it. And they see big swings in stock prices as an opportunity to make money. Big money. Today, I’ll show you how to become one of them…</p>
<h3>Simple-to-Execute Option Investment Strategies</h3>
<p>Okay, hang onto your hat… both investment strategies involve the use of options.</p>
<p>No, not the scary, complex ones. The simple-to-execute options that can actually prove extremely valuable in any market &#8211; but particularly one like this.</p>
<p>Buying options is easy enough.</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>When you buy calls, you’re simply betting that a stock will rise.</li>
<li>When you buy puts, you think the stock will fall.</li>
</ul>
<p>But this is no different than placing a short-term bet on the direction of a stock or index &#8211; something that is very tough to do consistently. And because of volatility, you <span style="text-decoration: underline;">will</span> overpay each time you buy an option.</p>
<p>A better way to play the options market is to understand what happens when you <span style="text-decoration: underline;">sell</span> options. This is the “other side” of the trade &#8211; the infinitely more profitable side of volatility and a more consistent way to make money from the stock market.</p>
<h3>Profit From Market Volatility #1: Using Covered Calls</h3>
<p>Market volatility is so rampant today because investors are uncertain about the direction of stocks in the short-term. No surprise there.</p>
<p>But with daily double-digit swings and volatility so high, the price for buying options has shot through the roof.</p>
<p>That’s bad news for suckers, but excellent news for us.</p>
<p>That’s because <span style="text-decoration: underline;">the first way to profit from market volatility is to sell calls against stocks that you own or that you want to buy</span>. When you sell an option, you get a lot more money. In fact, you get the money upfront and it’s yours to keep, no matter what happens.</p>
<p>I’ll give you an example of this volatility at work…</p>
<p>Last month, <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&amp;q=wfc" target="_blank">WFC</a>) traded between $9 and $20. For a bank stock, that $11 range is very wide (of course, we all know why that happened). By comparison, the stock traded between $29 and $34 &#8211; a $5 range in February 2008.</p>
<p>In percentage terms, the numbers are much more revealing. In February 2008, WFC traded with swings of less than 20%. But last month, those swings rocketed to more than 100%.</p>
<p>Simply put, this means the cost for WFC options with a strike price <a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/glossary/atthemoney.html">at-the-money</a> (at or near the current price) on any given day last month was between 3 and 4 times the price at the same time last year.</p>
<p>So let’s say that WFC was trading at $10. The $10 option this year with a one-month expiration would have cost you over $2.50. Last year, a corresponding at-the-money option with a one-month expiration would have cost less than $1.</p>
<p>So the lesson here would have been to buy WFC shares and then sell call options against them to reduce your cost and protect your downside.</p>
<p>That’s one way to beat market volatility. Here’s another…</p>
<h3>Profit From Market Volatility #2: Selling Put Options</h3>
<p>What if you could make an investment where you could choose the price you want to pay for a stock and don’t have to pay for the shares unless the price falls to that level?</p>
<p>Oh, and also get paid money upfront, just for trying?</p>
<p>That’s the essence of <span style="text-decoration: underline;">selling put options</span>.</p>
<p>When you sell a put option, you receive the cash from the sale in your trading account immediately. In return, you’re then obligated to buy the shares if they fall to your strike price at or before expiration.</p>
<p>Let’s look at an example of how market volatility and put selling are a marriage made in stock market heaven…</p>
<p>Let’s say that <strong>Microsoft</strong> (Nasdaq: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&amp;q=msft" target="_blank">MSFT</a>) is trading at $15 &#8211; a ridiculously low level for a cash-rich, debt-free company.</p>
<p>Because MSFT is moving with such volatility, the price for buying call options or put options is extraordinarily high. Forget that. You decide that you’d like to own MSFT at $12.50 &#8211; a price not seen since 1997 when the company was one-quarter the size it is today, with much less cash on the books. At $12.50, you’d own MSFT at 3x cash and 5x earnings &#8211; an outstanding bargain in any market.</p>
<p>Here’s what you’d do…</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Sell the MSFT $12.50 put options for $1. If you sold 10 contracts, you’d be “paid” $1,000 immediately because 10 multiplied by 100 (the options multiplier, because one contract is made up of 100 shares) is $1,000.</li>
<li>You’d then be obligated to buy MSFT at $12.50 if it closed below that level. So be careful not to sell more contracts of shares that you can afford to buy.</li>
<li>Your ultimate cost would be $11.50 per share (accounting for the $1 option premium) &#8211; a full $6.50 below current levels.</li>
<li>If MSFT does not close below $12.50, you’d keep the cash &#8211; basically getting paid for trying to own MSFT at your price.</li>
</ul>
<p>Once again the volatility of MSFT is 47 &#8211; more than double its historical volatility. And that volatility results in massive option premiums &#8211; which you receive as the seller.</p>
<h3>Embrace Market Volatility… Don’t Fear It</h3>
<p>Equipped with the right investment strategy, you don’t have to fear market volatility. In fact, volatility can be your best friend in the current market &#8211; and is the key to making money like the pros do.</p>
<p>Remember, for every loser in the market, there is also a winner. And in this market, the winners are those who have figured out how to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">use</span> market volatility, not be <span style="text-decoration: underline;">abused</span> by it.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/spr/market-volatility.html">Source: Two Ways To Make Money From Market Volatility</a></p>
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		<title>Investors Returning To Stocks Must Tread Carefully</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/investors-returning-to-stocks-must-tread-carefully/10422</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 13:06:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Paul Moore</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NOK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Txn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vix]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=10422</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The huge downward pressure on stocks is over for now, says <strong>Paul Moore</strong>. But though investors be thinking about getting back into the market, they must exercise extreme caution. The coming earnings season could reveal some more ugly numbers, while light volume over Christmas can increase market volatility.</p>
<p>This from Smart Profits Report:</p>
<blockquote><p>Congratulations… you’ve almost survived the most volatile stock market of our generation.</p>
<p>At least for 2008 anyway.</p>
<p>And if you’re asking yourself whether it’s time to buy stocks as the <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EVIX">CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)</a> is receding and valuations are at record lows, I offer this: <em>Before jumping back in the water, be sure the sharks have fattened up and left the area. Forget “blood in the streets”… make sure there’s no “blood&#8230;</em></p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The huge downward pressure on stocks is over for now, says <strong>Paul Moore</strong>. But though investors be thinking about getting back into the market, they must exercise extreme caution. The coming earnings season could reveal some more ugly numbers, while light volume over Christmas can increase market volatility.<span id="more-10422"></span></p>
<p>This from Smart Profits Report:</p>
<blockquote><p>Congratulations… you’ve almost survived the most volatile stock market of our generation.</p>
<p>At least for 2008 anyway.</p>
<p>And if you’re asking yourself whether it’s time to buy stocks as the <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EVIX">CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)</a> is receding and valuations are at record lows, I offer this: <em>Before jumping back in the water, be sure the sharks have fattened up and left the area. Forget “blood in the streets”… make sure there’s no “blood in the water.”</em></p>
<p>And amid the gloom and doom, I’m also going to offer up a more bullish, optimistic outlook: While the economic outlook remains very weak, the stock market is, after all, a market.</p>
<p>By that, I mean that the main factor that drives prices up or down is supply and demand (with a hearty dose of fear and greed tossed in for good measure, too, of course). So what do we really know about supply and demand? And more importantly, how can we profit from it?</p>
<p><strong>Look Forward, Not Back</strong></p>
<p>Let me put it this way: The view ahead is better than the one in the rear view mirror. In fact, even over the past week, we’ve seen many examples of how the lack of supply for stocks is driving prices higher &#8211; even in the face of terrible fundamental news.</p>
<p>The issues are worth noting, in order to keep the impact in context…</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>On the political front, we’ve seen the bribery of government officials in an attempt to sell a decision-making seat in one of our top governing bodies.</li>
<li>We’ve seen one of the most highly regarded hedge fund managers be exposed as a charlatan, wiping out individual and seasoned professional investors alike.</li>
<li>On the economic front, we’ve seen massive job losses that were substantially worse than expectations &#8211; and while this is a backward looking indicator, economists are now talking about double-digit unemployment.</li>
<li>The Federal Reserve has hacked interest rates to the lowest level ever in what seems like the latest in a series of desperate reactionary tools to stave off the expanding and increasingly ugly recession.</li>
</ul>
<p>The current climate resembles a rugby scrum, with each new issue piling on top of other existing ones. And they throw up questions about the very stability of our investing framework.</p>
<p>But underneath the bad news, there is still some resilience…</p>
<p><strong>So Much For Selling Pressure: These Two Stocks Reported Awful Bad News… And Investors Loved It!</strong></p>
<p>For example, we’ve recently seen <strong>Texas Instruments</strong> (NYSE:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=txn" target="_blank">TXN</a>) and <strong>Nokia</strong> (NYSE:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=nok" target="_blank">NOK</a>) dramatically reduce their earnings estimates for the current quarter and offer a dour outlook for 2009.</p>
<p>Specifically, Texas Instruments expects revenues to slump by 26% to 32% sequentially. Yet investors “rewarded” the stock with a 5% boost the day after the announcement.</p>
<p>Nokia has reduced its guidance twice so far this quarter &#8211; once on the earnings call and again at its capital market day on December 4. Expectations for fourth-quarter handset shipments are now a negative 5%. And while the stock initially dropped by 3%, it’s up 6% since the latest reduction.</p>
<p>What does this say? To me, it’s clear that the downward pressure on stock prices that we’ve seen from forced selling is over. So is this just cause to get back in the investing saddle? Consider these three reasons…</p>
<p><strong>Three Reasons To Resume Your Investing… But With A Caveat</strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>All three major stock indexes closed above their 50-day moving averages for two straight days &#8211; the first time that’s happened since August.</li>
<li>There’s also a lack of selling pressure for tax-loss purposes.</li>
<li>Dow Jones reports that 344 funds liquidated in the third quarter. That was the first time on record that more funds disappeared than launched. It also means that there’s likely to be less selling pressure ahead.</li>
</ul>
<p>All three of these reasons for buying stocks are valid. But beware… with a potentially disastrous earnings season on the horizon and volume drying up as we head into the Christmas season, short sellers may take the opportunity to drive stocks back below their 50-day moving averages if for no other reason than a lack of buyers. Larger funds may also take the opportunity to reduce potentially volatile positions.</p>
<p><strong>Corporate America’s New Tagline: Aim Low!</strong></p>
<p>At this time of year, thoughts turn to the jolly fat man who represents gift-giving and good cheer. Question is: Will he hit Wall Street this year?</p>
<p>Investors are hoping for the oft-mentioned “Santa Claus Rally,” but in a thin market like this one, it’s easy to be shaken out of a 10% stop-loss simply due to increased volatility.</p>
<p>The next fundamental opportunity to invest will be after we have a feel for what first quarter corporate earnings will bring in terms of growth rates and profit levels.</p>
<p>The January earnings will provide management teams with the opportunity to reduce expectations to a point where they will be easily achievable. Once the bar is set low enough and investors are comfortable with growth rates, they will begin to take longer-term positions and the stock market will likely stop behaving like a casino.</p>
<p>If you prefer to look at the technicals, simply wait until the indexes prove they can hold their 50-day moving averages under increased volume &#8211; and be ready to sell if earnings season proves to be worse than we are currently expecting.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/three-reasons-to-invest-cautiously.html">Source: As Wall Street Selling Pressure Eases, Three Reasons To Invest Cautiously</a></p>
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		<title>6 Reasons To Expect A Stock Market Bull Run Soon</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/6-reasons-to-expect-a-stock-market-bull-run-soon/9643</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/6-reasons-to-expect-a-stock-market-bull-run-soon/9643#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 14:54:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Lichtenfeld</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bear Market Rally]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bull market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fear and greed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marc Lichtenfeld]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market panic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mutual funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[price to earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S&P 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vix]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Marc Lichtenfeld</strong> is convinced we&#8217;ll soon have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at irrationally low prices. Market conditions are extreme at the moment. But this will pass, eventually, and stocks will recover strongly. Marc gives six reasons why it will soon be time to load up on stocks again.</p>
<p>This from Smart Profits Report:</p>
<blockquote><p>I’ve been spending the past two weeks intently trying to make sense of the dramatic shifts in our financial markets, the U.S. economy, and even our societal mood.</p>
<p>The news is not good.</p>
<p>In fact, a friend of mine who’s an investment banker summed up the current conditions best, using just one word: “Brutal.”</p>
<p>She reports that her business hasn’t just slowed… it’s at a complete standstill. As a result, she&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Marc Lichtenfeld</strong> is convinced we&#8217;ll soon have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at irrationally low prices. Market conditions are extreme at the moment. But this will pass, eventually, and stocks will recover strongly. Marc gives six reasons why it will soon be time to load up on stocks again.<span id="more-9643"></span></p>
<p>This from Smart Profits Report:</p>
<blockquote><p>I’ve been spending the past two weeks intently trying to make sense of the dramatic shifts in our financial markets, the U.S. economy, and even our societal mood.</p>
<p>The news is not good.</p>
<p>In fact, a friend of mine who’s an investment banker summed up the current conditions best, using just one word: “Brutal.”</p>
<p>She reports that her business hasn’t just slowed… it’s at a complete standstill. As a result, she and her colleagues won’t receive any bonus this year.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the mainstream media continue to rant and rave, almost relishing the situation. A popular radio talk show host is predicting financial Armageddon in the United States, terrorist attacks and pretty much every other type of catastrophe. Frankly, I’m surprised a devastating locust attack wasn’t mentioned.</p>
<p>And I bet that if you talk to people you do business with &#8211; from your local shop owner, to gym manager, they’ll tell you that business is off considerably.</p>
<p>Before we dig into the other side of this mess, let me just state for the record that this is a scary time &#8211; and things will probably get worse before they get better.</p>
<p>But if you’re one of those folks who are having a difficult time picturing the other side of this mess &#8211; a brighter side &#8211; you need to realize just how extreme market conditions already are. As the saying goes, “This, too, shall pass” &#8211; and the market will eventually return to normal.</p>
<p>Here’s a little perspective &#8211; and some common sense…</p>
<p><strong><br />
Perspective Amid The Panic</strong></p>
<p>Take a look at the following facts &#8211; ammunition that suggests we’re due for a bull market.</p>
<p>Okay, maybe not today… maybe not next month… maybe not even in the first half of next year. But the numbers below should give investors confidence that it will soon be time to back up the truck and load up on stocks.</p>
<p><strong>#1: Excluding the 1929-1932 crash, bear markets recouped their losses in an average of 22 months.</strong></p>
<p>With the exception of 1929, the largest declines were as follows:</p>
<p>– The 1937 Bear Market: A 50% decline, which lasted 13 months and recovered all its losses in 58 months.</p>
<p>– The 1974 Bear Market: A 43% decline, which lasted 21 months and recovered all its losses in 21 months.</p>
<p>– The 2002 Bear Market: A 45% decline, which lasted 25 months and recovered all its losses in 40 months.</p>
<p>The current bear market is down 52% &#8211; from peak to trough &#8211; and has lasted for 14 months.</p>
<p><strong>#2: According to Wells Capital Management, between 1984 and 1994, the loan delinquency rate was above today’s level.</strong></p>
<p>In fact, current business loan delinquencies are actually near record lows and consumer loan and credit card delinquencies are at the same level as they were three years ago.</p>
<p>And while delinquencies will rise further as the economy regresses, Wells believes this doesn’t support a depressionary debt collapse.</p>
<p><strong>#3: Volatility is at an all-time high.</strong></p>
<p>During 1929, volatility peaked at 68%, according to <em>Barron’s. </em>In 1987, it peaked at 64%.</p>
<p>The Volatility Index (VIX) recently set an all-time closing high of 80.9 on S&amp;P 500 options expiring in 30 days, which indicates an average daily move of 5%.  That’s an unsustainable amount of volatility and the markets will certainly slow down and become less frenetic.</p>
<p><strong>#4: At the recent lows, the S&amp;P’s annualized 10-year real return was a negative 3.8% &#8211; an all-time low. At market lows of 1974, the trailing real 10 year annual loss was 2.7%.</strong></p>
<p><strong>#5: Only 16 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 are positive on the year.</strong></p>
<p><strong>#6: Morningstar tracks over 11,000 equity mutual funds. <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Every single one</span> is down for the year.</strong></p>
<p>I share these statistics with you, not to show you how dire things are, but to illustrate the excessive fear that investors are experiencing. So what’s the solution?</p>
<p><strong>In Times Of Pain, Go Against The Grain</strong></p>
<p>Market history teaches us that during these kinds of extremes, it’s usually a good time to move in the opposite direction.</p>
<p>I’m not necessarily recommending that you load up on stocks today, because I think we have a little more pain to experience yet.</p>
<p>But with the market so far past its normal limit, I fully expect it to return to a more typical environment. And in order for that to occur, the market must rise significantly.</p>
<p>I believe the next six months will be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at irrationally low prices.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/bull-market-will-arrive-sooner-than-you-think.html">Source: The Numbers Don’t Lie… Why A Bull Market Will Arrive Sooner Than You Think</a></p>
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		<title>City Money is Heading to Africa</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/city-money-is-heading-to-africa/1917</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/city-money-is-heading-to-africa/1917#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 21:04:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manraaj Singh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IPGL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Spencer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ubs]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>If you could make ONE investment right now, in anything you want, anywhere in the world, what would it be? Gold, oil&#8230;a FTSE tracker fund? We’re tempted to say Africa&#8230;and Michael Spencer would probably agree with us.</p>
<p>Michael Spencer is one of the smartest men in the City. The Times Rich List says he’s worth £1.15 billion. Spencer controls the world’s largest inter-dealer broker, Icap, here in London. He’s also the boss at spread betting firm City Index. Most financial firms are getting battered by the ongoing credit crisis and market volatility, Icap is actually profiting handsomely from all the increased trading.</p>
<p>You see, what they do is provide broking services to trading professionals in the wholesale financial markets. They offer everything&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you could make ONE investment right now, in anything you want, anywhere in the world, what would it be? Gold, oil&#8230;a FTSE tracker fund? We’re tempted to say Africa&#8230;and Michael Spencer would probably agree with us.<span id="more-1917"></span></p>
<p>Michael Spencer is one of the smartest men in the City. The Times Rich List says he’s worth £1.15 billion. Spencer controls the world’s largest inter-dealer broker, Icap, here in London. He’s also the boss at spread betting firm City Index. Most financial firms are getting battered by the ongoing credit crisis and market volatility, Icap is actually profiting handsomely from all the increased trading.</p>
<p>You see, what they do is provide broking services to trading professionals in the wholesale financial markets. They offer everything from the global equity and credit markets and indices to more exotic things like OTC (over-the-counter) financial products and services in energy, foreign exchange and interest rates.</p>
<p>That obviously puts Spencer in a very sweet position. He’s got practically the entire range of investment options across the world at his fingertips &#8211; literally.</p>
<p>So the fact that he’s putting tens of millions of his family’s money into Africa and the Middle East right now is getting a lot of attention. In fact, it made the headline news in the Financial Tines today.</p>
<p>Spencer’s family investment vehicle, IPGL has teamed-up with a US financial consultant to provide $125 million of seed capital to a new African hedge fund. And this isn’t some pipe dream either &#8211; they plan to launch it this month.</p>
<p><strong>He’s not alone either&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>They aren’t alone either. Right now, there is a flood of money heading towards the region. Just look at what Tutu Agyare is up to. Most people outside the City would never even have heard of him, but he was on the board of directors of Swiss banking giant UBS. And he headed the banks’ equities division in the Euro time-zone Emerging Markets. He was the top man in Russia and Eastern Europe, Turkey, Israel, the Middle East and Africa. Agyare was one of the big movers and shakers in the Square Mile.</p>
<p>But he’s moving on to bigger and better things. Right now he’s in the final stages of fundraising for two new African hedge funds that should pull-in $200m-$300 million. You don’t quit as one of the top men at the world’s biggest fund manager unless you’re on to a good thing&#8230;</p>
<p>And other hedge funds focussed in the region are expanding too. The biggest of the Africa funds is still Blakeney Management here in London with about $1.5 billion under management. They pioneered international investment into many of the African and Middle Eastern markets and helped finance the lucrative resurgence of one of our portfolio’s best picks (an undervalued company that hold’s the key’s to $135 billion in oil &#8211; it can’t get out of Africa without their say so&#8230; but more on that soon)&#8230;</p>
<p>But Blakeney is a low profile company. Very niche. Even in the City, most people would never have heard of them. Spencer’s very public move into Africa is on a whole different order. It could mark a key turning point in the scale of funds moving into Africa for one main reason &#8211; Icap has actually got the ability to bring African shares onto the global markets.</p>
<p><strong>In for the long haul</strong></p>
<p>Spencer’s new fund won’t just be pouring money into African market-listed shares though. It expects to have about 35-40 per cent of its holdings in illiquid investments. Those would be things like private equity, corporate and government bonds and bank loans, including issues in local currencies. That’s a massive vote of confidence in Africa. That’s why we are so excited about this. This isn’t a fund that’s just trying to make a quick return on fast-moving African markets. It’s investing in Africa’s long-term growth story &#8211; which is precisely the strategy of our little known company that’s about to reap the benefits of America’s need for oil&#8230;</p>
<p>We got in ahead of the pack with our investment in this company. In fact at present the share price is less than 30p&#8230; by the end of the year I firmly believe this will have doubled.</p>
<p>This huge windfall will be just the start for this company&#8230; it’s got major positions in the sorts of industries that Africa needs if it is going to keep on growing: transport, infrastructure, clean water&#8230;.</p>
<p>Regular Profit Hunter readers will already know how bullish we are on the Africa story. The continent has 15% of the world’s population, but only 2 per cent of the world’s GDP. So there is still huge scope for growth. And, we are already seeing that happen. The IMF is predicting growth of 6.5 this year &#8211; almost three times as fast as Britain. And we don’t see any end in sight.</p>
<p>We believe that the trickle of foreign investment that we has been flowing into Africa so far could be about to turn into a flood. This is an excellent time to get into Africa.</p>
<p>You can learn the details of the African opportunity by checking out our portfolio&#8230; <a href="https://www.f-s-p-secure.co.uk/fsp/ap_orderform_1.aspx?u=PLTfspinvest&amp;tc=EPLTD416&amp;ofid=1571&amp;PromotionID=2147065591&amp;">and if you’ve enjoyed reading Profit Hunter’s views on today’s emerging markets&#8230; you can get them every day, along with tips, hints, stock picks and much, much more&#8230;</a></p>
<p>Shares in the company the subject of this promotion are penny shares. On 02/05/08 the share price was 27.25p and the bid/offer prices of these shares was 27p/27.25p.</p>
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		<title>Why the Market&#8217;s Most Infamous Currency Play is About to Come Undone Again</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-the-markets-most-infamous-currency-play-is-about-to-come-undone-again/1909</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-the-markets-most-infamous-currency-play-is-about-to-come-undone-again/1909#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 20:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Crooks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[US Dollar & Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carry trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derivatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;ve probably heard the talking heads on CNBC chattering about this currency play. You&#8217;ve probably read about this investment &#8220;unwinding&#8221; or &#8220;being back on&#8221; in the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>, or in <em>Bloomberg</em>. </p>
<p>And I&#8217;m certain you&#8217;ve read about this trade here in the A-Letter &#8211; the infamous currency play, known as the &#8220;carry trade.&#8221;</p>
<p>But still with all this publicity, carry trades remain a mystery to most mainstream investors. Even the carry trade basics &#8211; including what it is and the mechanics of placing this trade &#8211; elude most investors.</p>
<p>So let me take just a moment to explain what a carry trade is &#8211; and why this one trade has been behind some of the most explosive trends in the currency&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;ve probably heard the talking heads on CNBC chattering about this currency play. You&#8217;ve probably read about this investment &#8220;unwinding&#8221; or &#8220;being back on&#8221; in the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>, or in <em>Bloomberg</em>. <span id="more-1909"></span></p>
<p>And I&#8217;m certain you&#8217;ve read about this trade here in the A-Letter &#8211; the infamous currency play, known as the &#8220;carry trade.&#8221;</p>
<p>But still with all this publicity, carry trades remain a mystery to most mainstream investors. Even the carry trade basics &#8211; including what it is and the mechanics of placing this trade &#8211; elude most investors.</p>
<p>So let me take just a moment to explain what a carry trade is &#8211; and why this one trade has been behind some of the most explosive trends in the currency markets for years. Also, I&#8217;ll explain why this one trade is about to come undone this year and create some explosive profit opportunities if you&#8217;re positioned correctly.</p>
<h3 align="left">It&#8217;s Really So Easy: Borrow, Convert, Reinvest</h3>
<p>Though commentators can make this sound complicated, it&#8217;s not. Think of it as a simple three-step process and I think you will have the mechanics of a carry trade nailed.</p>
<p><u>Three-step process</u> that defines a carry trade:</p>
<blockquote><p>1.	Borrow the low cost currency i.e. low interest rate currency<br />
2.	Convert the borrowed currency into currency of your choice<br />
3.	Reinvest into:</p>
<ul>
<li>Deposits of other high yielding currencies</li>
<li>Stocks</li>
<li>	Bonds</li>
<li>	Commodities</li>
<li>	Real Estate</li>
<li>	Derivatives</li>
<li>	You Name It&#8230;</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<p>The currency you borrow in step one is often called your &#8220;carry trade currency&#8221; or your &#8220;funding currency.&#8221; That&#8217;s because this borrowed currency gives you the funds to reinvest as defined in step three. So keep in mind that &#8220;carry&#8221; and &#8220;funding&#8221; currency is often used interchangeably in financial literature.</p>
<p>Okay. The process looks easy enough, but why is it, or why was it, so popular? The reason is because it was profitable. It&#8217;s very enticing to be able to borrow inexpensively, reinvest and immediately achieve a much higher return. There&#8217;s lots of money to be made on the spread&#8230;</p>
<h3 align="left">Spread = Return on Investment in Higher Yielding Assets &#8211; Borrowing Cost</h3>
<p>&#8230;or at least that&#8217;s the theory.</p>
<p>For example, say you borrow at 1% then turn around and reinvest the proceeds at 6%. You&#8217;ve just earned yourself a quick 5% return without much work. This of course assumes the asset yielding 6% in this example holds its value. If the asset you buy with the carry proceeds falls in value, you have a capital loss. Thus it eats away at the spread that once looked so enticing.</p>
<p>In fact, this is where the problem comes in with the carry trade &#8211; it&#8217;s based on simplistic assumptions. But incredibly, these simple assumptions didn&#8217;t stop fund managers and institutions across the globe from borrowing trillions of dollars to reinvest those assets. And they add massive leverage to boot.</p>
<h3 align="center">Three Things a Carry Trade Needs to Grow and Thrive</h3>
<p>You need to have three major criteria (which are assumptions when projected into the future) for the carry trade to be of any significance:</p>
<blockquote><p>1. <strong>Low borrowing rates from a major central bank</strong> &#8211; as highlighted above, it comes down to perceived profitability of borrowing cheap and buying or lending at higher rates to achieve the spread. But for a global carry trade to take wing and fly there must be a major global central bank behind the trade (Bank of England, European Central Bank, The Fed, Bank of Japan, etc.). For example, if the central Bank of Zimbabwe were offering 0.5% interest rates, they could not realistically produce enough loans to make it significant. Not to mention they have absolutely no credibility when it comes to monetary policy and a stable currency.</p>
<p>2. <strong>Low volatility or weakness in funding currency</strong> &#8211; if the currency you borrow weakens, or at least remains stable, then your risk is limited to the return available where you invested the proceeds. If the currency you borrow begins to appreciate in value relative to the investment you purchased, then profits begin to fall.</p>
<p>3. <strong>Low volatility or strength in invested asset class</strong> &#8211; As long as the asset class you bought e.g. other currencies, stocks, bonds, etc. with the borrowed proceeds increase in value faster than the underlying borrowed currency, the trade is profitable. But if the assets you bought start to decline in value on a relative basis, your losses can mount quickly.</p></blockquote>
<p>So there you have it. It&#8217;s a straightforward process. And if the funds and institutions didn&#8217;t bet so much money on such simplistic assumptions, the carry trade would be relatively innocuous. Unfortunately, not only did they bet big by borrowing trillions, but they turned around and &#8220;leveraged it up&#8221; many times over. In other words, they used margin to supercharge their carry trade borrowings so they could buy more stuff. After all, it was working for a long time so why change?</p>
<h3 align="center">Back When All Assets Were Soaring&#8230;</h3>
<p>From 2001 through most of 2007 almost all asset classes were moving higher and higher in virtual lockstep. Not only that, the volatility of the move was extremely low.</p>
<p>Stocks, gold, and crude oil all moved up together through June of 2007. Thus, we had a happy credit induced bubble ridding merrily higher.</p>
<p>But the game changed come July 2007 &#8211; dramatically. The markets bit back, proving what Milton Friedman told us many years ago, &#8220;There is no such thing as a free lunch.&#8221;</p>
<p>Stay tuned&#8230;I&#8217;ll give you the full story on how the game has changed tomorrow.</p>
<p>JACK CROOKS, Editor of The Money Trader and World Currency Options</p>
<p>P.S. Tomorrow I&#8217;ll tell you why the carry trade currencies rocketed higher and why the new era of the great unwind could change the game for a long time to come and set the stage for some excellent long-term currency trading opportunities. Or you can read my <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1479557/29574640/847943/0/" target="_blank"><strong>FREE report</strong></a> right now to get all the details on this explosive new trend.</p>
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