Think about the service this company has done mankind. C. diff, as hospital diarrhea is called, is a growing cause of hospital deaths. Though many cases outside of hospitals are never diagnosed, we know it kills at least 30,000 Americans annually. Those who do recover, about 9 out of ten, can suffer horribly for months. Bravo to Medarex and all those who made this breakthrough possible by investing your money in this incredibly worth effort.

So what does this have to do with swine flu?

So far, swine flu is a minor problem compared to C. diff. Only one person in the U.S. has died from the infection. Survival rates, in fact, are far higher than they are for C. diff. Still, it could get worse, and governments are looking for a vaccine. So, just what are the financial opportunities?

I see nothing significant in the short run. One can never account for mob psychology though, and there have already been surges in some vaccine companies. In terms of fundamentals, however, I don’t think standard flu vaccines are going to make investors rich. The reason is that governments are the real customers for flu vaccines. On top of that, vaccines are an established industry and yields tend to be driven down by competition.

Those who are interested in playing swings should probably look into:

• Novavax  (NASDAQ: NVAX)
• Dynavax (NASDAQ: DVAX)
• Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB)
• BioCryst Pharma (NASDAQ: BCRX)
• AVI BioPharma (NASDAQ: AVII)
• deCode Genetics (NASDAQ: DCGN)
• Crucell (NASDAQ: CRXL)
• Vical (NASDAQ: VICL)

This does not mean there are not long-term flu-related opportunities. Even if swine flu doesn’t turn into a major pandemic, influenza is a serious international problem that drains resources and lives. The World Health Organization, estimates that influenza infects 5 to 15% of the world’s population in a typical year. This results in 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. The WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are, of course, concerned about the potential for a major global pandemic. Medical science has progressed significantly since 1918, when the “Spanish Flu” killed upward of 50 million people; but it is still a serious illness.

Right now, the headlines generated by the flu are largely about trying to track and stop its progress. Today, this is extremely difficult. There are, however, solutions on the horizon.

I’ve written before about biochip sensors. These are a true transformational technology. Last year, agricultural losses of hundreds of millions of dollars were caused by the inability to quickly locate the source of a salmonella infection. What is needed, and will arrive in the not-so-distant future, are sensors that can detect disease pathogens cheaply and instantaneously. Think Star Trek tricorders…

And we’re getting close. EETimes is reporting that CombiMatrix Corp. (NASDAQ: CBMX) has made biochips that can be programmed to identify any known flu type. CombiMatrix says its microarray can be updated for new influenzas in less than a day and can deliver test results in only four hours.

A little bit further out are even bigger profit opportunities. Specifically, we’re looking at is an end to specific flu vaccines.

Pandemic influenzas emerge from a sudden change in the flu virus against which there is no immunity. Vaccines are the mainstay of flu prevention, but they have two key limitations. First, they are developed against single, known flu strains. Therefore, they may be ineffective against new strains. Second, vaccines are produced using a lengthy process requiring incubation in chicken eggs. New flu vaccines take months or years to stockpile.

There are general antiviral medications approved to treat influenza. Influenza virus strains, however, can become resistant to these medications. For this reason, scientists are looking to RNA interference for a brand new approach to preventing flu viruses.

I know of at least two companies that have been engaged in the search for an RNAi flu cure. The potential advantage of RNAi antiviral therapeutics is that RNAi can be used to provoke an immune response that prevents replication of all influenza viruses, new or old. Stockpiling of an effective RNAi treatment would be possible in advance of a global pandemic and could be used for routine flus as well. Moreover, whoever produces the therapy would have a significant profit potential.

For transformational profits,
Patrick Cox

Source: Why Standard Flu Vaccines Won’t Make Investors Rich

Main Street investors watched helplessly as Regeneron lost nearly $500 million from its market cap in roughly three weeks. Should we just chalk it up to typical biotech volatility?

Actually, scores of hedge funds had anticipated Regeneron’s downward spiral weeks in advance. As I’ll explain, the group took advantage of another biotech “glitch,” sold Regeneron’s shares short, and pocketed a cool 30% return… while naïve investors were blindsided.

Last week, I described the “ivory tower glitch,” which occurs when academic studies shove around biotech stocks. Well, before those studies go public, scientists and researchers often present the data at academic conferences. This unpublished data can sometimes move entire sectors of the industry.

The most famous (or infamous) of medical conferences is ASCO, the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. This is the “Super Bowl” of cancer meetings.

———- Advertisement ———-
‘Pilbara Profit Secret’ Turns $5,000 Into $1,025,150 In 4 Years

Starting no later than June 30, 2008, the “Pilbara Profit Secret” could propel SEVEN unknown small caps to stratospheric highs.

It’s already sent one 27 cent stock to $55.63…

Bloomberg reports: “Even the tech boom of the late 1990s pales in comparison…” Read on to get a ‘ground-floor’ piece of the action…
———————————–

But ASCO has a dark side, which last year cost Regeneron investors a third of their investment. You see, before every scientific conference, organizers release “abstracts” – one-page appetizers summarizing each presentation. At clinical conferences like ASCO, the abstracts can contain highly anticipated data on new drugs… the kind of information that can move a stock up or down 75% in one day.

Here’s the catch: ASCO has traditionally released abstracts to the public at the beginning of the conference. Yet ASCO members – cancer doctors and researchers who pay annual membership dues – received this information a full three weeks in advance.

Clearly, the scientists on Wall Street’s payroll selectively ignored the Confidential label on ASCO’s abstract books. This data leak created a “glitch”… allowing some investors to trade on “insider” information, while the rest were left in the dark.

In its abstract last year, Regeneron summarized disappointing trial results for its lead cancer drug. Investors who saw this data weeks early had a chance to set up short positions, knowing the market would punish the company. Sure enough, when the public got the bad news, Regeneron’s stock lost 11% in a day and continued to drift lower for weeks.

Regeneron is just one example of dozens of similar ASCO “glitches.” So now, after enduring numerous complaints, ASCO is trying to level the playing field. This year, conference organizers released the 2008 abstracts to everyone all at once… last night at 9:00.

You might want to check them out to see if any of your biotech holdings are presenting at this year’s ASCO meeting. You can bet dozens of volatility-junky hedge-fund managers and analysts are scouring through the pages as you read this, getting ready to make major moves in the market.

If you’re looking for short-term volatility trades, check out the presentations from the usual suspects – big biotech players in the cancer market, including Imclone (IMCL), Genentech (DNA), Onyx (ONXX), Celgene (CELG), Exelixis (EXEL), Medarex (MEDX), and Immunogen (IMGN).

If history is any measure, we’re heading into a span of volatile trading days in biotech. At least this year, we’re all in the same boat.

Good investing,

Rob

P.S. Even with the newly level playing field, it’ll be hard for individual investors to gain an edge over hedge funds when it comes to ASCO. But my friend and colleague Dr. George Huang has developed a system that uses a similar, little-known glitch to generate an average 75% profits a year. Click here to read more about it.

Source: What Hedge-Fund Managers are Reading this Morning