The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said its fighters struck the Shell Forcados platform in the Delta state at about 0230 GMT.

There was no immediate independent confirmation but Shell said it shut in some oil production at its western operations in the Delta while it investigated reports of attacks.

U.S. crude for August delivery rose to a high of $70.06 per barrel, up 90 cents, before slipping back slightly to $69.75 by 1230 GMT.

London Brent crude was up 60 cents at $69.52.

“The Nigerian supply disruptions brought in some buying,” said Christopher Bellew, broker at Bache Commodities in London.

On Friday, four militant Nigerian factions said they would accept in principle an amnesty offer from President Umaru Yar’Adua, raising hopes Africa’s top oil producer would halt a battle with rebels.

Pipeline bombings, attacks on oil and gas installations and kidnapping of industry workers over the past three years have prevented Nigeria from pumping much above two-thirds of its installed oil output capacity of 3 million barrels per day.

The loss of output have been a supportive factor at a time when global recession has bitten deep into oil demand.

DEMAND FORECAST CUT

The IEA, adviser to 28 industrialised countries, has cut sharply its medium-term forecast for oil demand, saying there was a chance of an extended contraction, but added the threat of a supply crunch had only receded, not gone away.

Based on a higher economic growth scenario, the IEA predicted on Monday product demand would grow by 0.6 percent, or 540,000 bpd on average, between 2008 and 2014, taking demand from 85.8 million bpd to 89 million bpd.

The IEA’s previous medium-term forecast, issued in December, had forecast growth of a million bpd a year from 2008 to 2013.

Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Monday oil demand was still weak due to the weakness of the U.S. and European economies and world oil stocks remained high.

Khelil said an increase in OPEC oil production was hard to envisage, despite rising crude prices.

European stock markets crept higher on Monday with financial and energy companies responding to an improving economic outlook for the euro zone.

Dealers said macro-economic data would continue to have a major impact on sentiment in the oil market.

U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday leads a heavy calendar of economic data this week, including China’s Purchasing Managers Index on Wednesday and a U.S. jobs report and manufacturing data on Thursday.

The U.S. data will help determine whether an oil market rally, which has lifted prices more than 50 percent this year on hopes of economic recovery, has any legs.

In the first big number for the week, industrial output from the world’

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters)

Oil rose towards $71 a barrel on Friday after Nigerian rebels said they blew up a wellhead in a Royal Dutch Shell oilfield and as equity markets rallied on perceptions the global recession was easing.

The move followed a 2 percent gain on Thursday and put oil on course for a 7 percent gain this week, buoyed by prospects for an economic recovery that has lifted prices from below $40 over the past four months.

The release of the June consumer sentiment index by the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers later on Friday was expected to reflect a mildly improving outlook for the U.S. economy, auguring well for ailing world energy demand.

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product shrank less than estimated, suggesting the downturn was easing.

By 1110 GMT, benchmark August U.S. crude oil was up 50 cents per barrel at $70.73, having hit a high of $71.29, up $1.06. London Brent rose 46 cents to $70.24.

Nigeria’s Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said it attacked the wellhead in the Afremo oilfield because the military had gone on a “punitive expedition” in Delta state shortly after President Umaru Yar’Adua announced an amnesty offer for rebels.

SHUT IN PRODUCTION

The military denied carrying out any such campaign.

Shell said it was investigating reports of an attack on its Afremo platform B facility, which had already been shut down following an attack on the Trans Escravos pipeline in February.

Afremo was one of the sites MEND also said it had attacked in a triple raid on Sunday. It described the field as being 14 miles from an export terminal through which crude oil from Shell’s Forcados fields is pumped.

Pipeline bombings, attacks on oil and gas installations and the kidnapping of industry workers over the past three years have prevented Nigeria from pumping much above two thirds of its installed oil output capacity of 3 million barrels per day.

The intensity of recent attacks in Nigeria have taken the oil market by surprise and tightened West African oil supplies.

“Attacks by the MEND have forced foreign oil companies to shut at least 133,000 barrels per day of Nigerian production in the last month,” MF Global said in its daily note to clients.

Iranian tension has also supported oil. About 20 people have died in protests after Iran’s June 12 presidential election, the most serious unrest since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Fuelling oil’s rise, Exxon Mobil said its huge Baytown refinery suffered an operational glitch that triggered flaring, sparking worries the largest U.S. oil refinery could tighten gasoline stockpiles during this summer’s peak demand driving season.

Firmer Asian stocks on the back of Wall Street’s rally also lent support, with shares outside Japan climbing 1.4 percent and Japan’s Nikkei up 0.8 percent.

European shares advanced in early trade.

A further boost came from a fall in the dollar against most major currencies on Friday as investors shifted funds back into risky assets after the Federal Reserve this week appeared to confirm it would keep interest rates low for a while.

The Reuters/University of Michigan final June consumer sentiment index, due at 1355 GMT, is expected to show a reading of 69.0 compared with 68.7 in the May report, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters)

Supplies fell further than expected, with a 4.56 million decline to 302.2 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced. At the same time, refineries operated at just 88.6% capacity, a decline of 1.1% from the week prior. Most analysts had expected a mean capacity increase of 0.3%, according to a
Bloomberg News survey.

“This move was sparked by the very bullish crude inventory number,” Daniel Flynn, a broker with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, told Bloomberg. “Falling inventories make us vulnerable to disruptions. The cheap dollar is only adding fuel to the fire.”

The high cost of oil is dampening demand of already overstretched U.S. consumers. U.S. demand declined 1.3% in the four week ended June 6, the energy department said.

However, demand is rapidly increasing in emerging markets such as China, where oil imports shot up 25% last month from the same period a year ago. Imports to the Asian nation increased to 16.2 million metric tons in May, which is about 3.8 million barrels a day, the Beijing-based Customs General Administration of China announced on its Web site yesterday.

“The big crude draw is obviously bullish, but more importantly for the oil markets, the dollar is falling and that could send us back to near $140 a barrel,” Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures in Huntington Beach, Calif., told Reuters.

Other factors contributed to the price jump, as well. Nigeria continues to experience production problems due to attacks from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which has made life particularly difficult for oil majors such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC (ADR: RDS.A, RDS.B) by bombing pipelines and kidnapping workers.

Russia, the world’s second-largest oil supplier, is also experiencing problems. At a presentation in London yesterday, BP PLC (ADR: BP) Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said Russian output would continue to fall without changes to the current tax policy of the Russian government.

“Russian authorities are responding” with fiscal regime changes, though it may take “a couple of years to reverse the current trend,” Hayward said.

High Oil, High Gas, Weak Economy

If oil stays near $140 per barrel, gas prices could easily top $4.75 a gallon by the Fourth of July holiday, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com (MCO), said in a recent research note.

And while the thought of gas at almost $5 per gallon is distressing enough, Money Morning’s Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald thinks gas prices could go even higher. In fact, U.S. motorists could easily be looking at $7 a gallon gasoline within just two years. And that could have a disastrous impact on the U.S. economy.

“The bottom line is that the effect on the economy is going to be a lot worse than anyone’s talking about right now,” said Fitz-Gerald, a longtime energy bull who recently boosted his oil-price projection to $225 a barrel. “The bottom line is this: Until someone develops a truly [interchangeable] alternative for oil and gasoline – something that works the same, costs the same and is just as effective – Americans are just going to have to face the fact that over time they’re going to pay more.”

By fixating on near-term prices, and near-term fallout, Fitz-Gerald says that investors and economists alike are missing the bigger point: Long-term – or at least until a true replacement for oil is found – the U.S. economy is going to be badly stung, and U.S. consumers who don’t take steps to protect themselves are looking at a markedly reduced standard of living.

Moody’s Economy.com’s Mark Zandi agrees.

“Unless oil prices soon recede and Washington changes its views and acts to shore up the housing market and broader economy, the outlook for 2009 will weaken further in coming months,” Zandi said.

Zandi added that the U.S. Federal Reserve “will sacrifice near-term growth for the sake of stable prices and the economy’s longer-term prospects” and that the high cost of oil will prevent any further interest rate cuts.

But don’t look for gas prices to move up in a straight line to $5, $6 and $7 a gallon, Fitz-Gerald says. Prices will continue to fluctuate. There will be rallies, and retrenchments, as is the case with the price of any commodity.

But prices will rise, as there is still no truly “fungible” – interchangeable – replacement for petroleum. That’s what’s needed, Fitz-Gerald says.

In the interim, investors should: be “long” on oil and other commodities; have alternative-energy-related investments; and look for profit plays in ancillary sectors, Fitz-Gerald says.

Source: Oil Price Soars $5 on Reduced Supply, Gas Could Head Much Higher

Yesterday (Thursday) futures prices for that benchmark grade of crude oil hit the latest in a succession of record highs, punching through the $135-a-barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before sliding back.

In other words, in only a single year, crude-oil prices have more than doubled, soaring 115% – and setting 27 separate new records along the way. And while a short-term correction may be in the offing – especially with fears of a U.S. recession ebbing – the reality is that oil prices are nowhere near the end of their run, meaning the United States is really an economic system that’s at the crossroads.

“The market is less worried about the economy and subprime problems,” Tim Speiss, head of the wealth-management arm of Eisner LLP, told MarketWatch.com. “But that’s near-sighted. If oil stays above $130 a barrel, that’s a very significant event and a lot of the sectors of the economy would have to be re-engineered.”

Commodities of all types are at or near all-time record highs. And the impact – on a global basis – has been as starting as it is far-reaching, affecting consumers at all income levels and in every market across the world.

Even so, here in the U.S. market, it’s the price of oil – and of gasoline – that continues to dominate the headlines. Like a junk-food junkie who’s constantly searching for a sugar fix, the U.S. economy is addicted to foreign oil. And because it’s not a habit we’re going to kick anytime soon, U.S. consumers will be forced to live with the heinous consequences.

Given that harsh reality, shrewd investors will look for ways to offset that largely unavoidable pain with some well-placed profit plays. Before we can do that, however, a look at the basics is necessary.

Oil Prices 101

Since 2005, global oil production has remained stagnant, but demand has increased exponentially. Even if American consumers are unwilling to pay $4 a gallon for gasoline, and U.S. demand plummets, global demand will continue to rise.

Eduardo Lopez, an analyst with the International Energy Agency, told The Independent that America’s role as the global oil-price arbiter – the United States consumes one out of every four barrels of oil used worldwide – is dwindling.

“Demand is coming from emerging markets. As long as the [United States] doesn’t collapse, it doesn’t really matter if the mature economies are slowing,” Lopez said.

While the IEA expects demand in industrialized countries to decline by 0.7% (about 300,000 barrels of oil per day) this year, the Paris-based group says oil consumption in the rest of the world will grow by 3.7% (1.4 million barrels a day).

The net increase is due chiefly to the rapid growth in China and India.

Fueling the Fast-Growing Economies of China and India

According to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China’s apparent consumption of petroleum byproducts such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose 16.5% year-over-year in the first-quarter. Crude oil consumption jumped 8%.

China’s net imports totaled 44.95 million metric tons in the first quarter, up 15%, and net imports of oil products rose by 32% from a year ago, according to the Asian nation’s General Administration of Customs.

And now that the most powerful earthquake in 58 years has ravaged the country’s infrastructure – smashing roads, leveling refineries, and shutting down hydroelectric plants – China has been forced to supercharge its imports of diesel and jet fuel just to supply power generators and airports to help it accelerate the desperate rebuilding process.

Ultimately, the IEA sees China’s oil demand more than doubling to 16.5 million barrels a day by 2030.

But that’s nothing compared to other emerging hot spots, where demand is expected to rocket sevenfold during that same stretch.

Just look at India, another big country with a pedal-to-the-metal growth rate. That country is expected to overtake the United States, Japan, and China as the world’s leading net importer of oil by 2025.

In 1970-71, India was importing 11.66 metric tons of crude oil. By 2005-06, however, the imports had increased to 99.40 metric tons, the Economic Times reported. Since 1997-98, alone, petroleum imports have almost tripled. Nearly 76% of India’s domestic oil needs are met via imports.

And it’s really no wonder: India’s demand for oil is expected to grow by 8%-10% this year alone.

Together, China and India will account for 45% of the increase in global primary energy demand through 2030. The two countries’ net oil imports are expected to jump from 5.4 million barrels in 2006 to 20 million barrels a day in 2030, which could create a “supply crunch” as early as 2015 according to the IEA.

The Pending ‘Supply Crunch’

There’s no avoiding the fact that the world will one day run out of oil. In fact, the biggest field in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field, is only a shadow of its former self. It was originally discovered in 1948. And since the 1970s, the oil field has required large-scale injections of seawater – a technique used to artificially pressurize an oil reserve that’s on the decline.

Ghawar isn’t the only spot where this seawater saga is playing out. As the biggest, most-accessible, and most-cost-efficient wells on the planet dry up, oil producers are struggling to replace them.

To do so, they’ve been forced to experiment with challenging and costly deep-sea drilling expeditions. Such heavy-hitters as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), BP PLC (BP), Total SA (TOT), Chevron Corp. (CVX), ConocoPhilips (COP), and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A, RDS.B), will spend a record $98.7 billion this year on exploration and production, according to Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc. (LEH).

Exploration costs have more than quadrupled since 2000, as oil producers have been forced to take on more complex projects and the costs of both labor and materials have skyrocketed. In just the past eight years alone, the cost of finding and developing a barrel of crude oil soared from $4 to $18, Andrew Latham, vice president of exploration services at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd., told Bloomberg News.

Crude rose as “the dollar is down again and the Nigerian rebels MEND made good on their threats to have more attacks in Nigeria,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said its members blew up two more oil pipelines in southern Nigeria, leading Royal Dutch Shell to say it will cut oil production by 169,000 barrels per day in Nigeria. MEND said the pipelines attacked belonged to Shell and Chevron.

And OPEC President Chakib Khelil said there is no need for the cartel “to raise its production now… any increase in output will not affect oil prices because there is a balance between supply and demand.”

Pickens became the 117th richest person in America by a series of oil corporate raids and acquisitions in the 1980s. He is a genuine legend. He’s also man enough to admit when he is wrong, which means I respect him even more.

Pickens admitted he got it wrong on the oil price. He has been running the BP Capital hedge fund and revealed overnight that he has now reversed his short position in crude futures.

“I covered the short position; it was a mistake on my part. We missed.”

Indeed, he has now gone long and has predicted that WTI futures will hit $125 in short shrift. My current view is that we will see $120 sooner rather than later, so we now appear to be singing off the same hymn sheet.

The oil price is now at $111.15, with the futures strip price (the average of the next 12 months WTI contracts) at $111.81, up from $111.61 at the start of trade on Thursday.

Continues below…

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There was more bullish news for the oil price this morning from Nigeria. Not only is their infrastructure in crisis, but pipeline explosions have become almost de rigueur.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) issued a press release this morning, saying it would funnel explosives to communities there to use against oil companies.

Oil companies working along the coastal region of Nigeria “are in for a raw deal as the military is not in the position to protect them… [it will] offer materials such as explosives to communities that have now realized that it is better to destroy oil facilities in their territory since they do not benefit [from] them in the first place.”

Now, of course, the people of the Delta have a point. It appears that they are not benefiting at all from Nigeria’s oil wealth (although bombs are not the way to reverse that situation in my mind).

However, it is not my job to moralise on this situation; I’m here to look at facts.

With global supply so tight, any supply disruptions will send oil traders into a tizzy – and give T Boone Pickens his $125 level sooner than he thinks. This is yet another bullish factor for the oil price.

Regards,

Garry White

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