I studied the soldier’s crisp brown uniform. It looked like something you’d wear to a dress party. His black patent leather shoes matched his belt and the peak of his hat. The gold buttons on his sleeve were so shiny they could decorate a Christmas tree.

The politician turned to the soldier. He took a whispered message. Then he dismissed him with a flick of the wrist…

Tito Saguier is a senior member of Paraguay’s government. Last week, Tito invited me to the senate for a cup of coffee and a discussion about Paraguay’s future.

Soldiers escorted us everywhere we went. Other soldiers opened doors and saluted as we walked past. A female soldier stood at attention at the door to Tito’s office. She wore the same pressed uniform as the male soldiers, except, instead of trousers, she wore a mini skirt with knee-high Nancy Sinatra boots.

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Paraguay has a new government. It just won power. The old government held power for 61 years. I wanted to know how this new government would behave. Would those in power continue to steal? Would they decrease the size of government? Would they decrease regulation and taxes?

An investor has several reasons to take a close look at Paraguay… Itaipu is the world’s largest hydroelectric dam. Thanks to Itaipu, Paraguay generates 10 times more electricity than it needs. Per person, Paraguay has access to more free energy than any other country on Earth. This energy will never run out… and it’s clean.

There are few taxes in Paraguay… and a small government. It has no external debt and no currency restrictions. The Paraguayan currency – the guarani – has risen almost 50% against the dollar in the last couple of years… and is the best performing currency in the world this year.

Paraguay has this interesting geographical location right between Brazil and Argentina. Both of these countries have huge populations compared to tiny Paraguay. Paraguay can make a fortune trading with both. Plus, Paraguay is a member of the Mercosur, the free trade agreement that also includes Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Goods produced in Paraguay are not subject to Brazilian and Argentine tariffs.

Paraguay is very cheap and unknown. There is no industry, and the stock market is tiny. And there’s a potential trigger for a rally: The Argentine government has raised export duties on soybeans to 40% and banned the export of beef. I found evidence Argentine farmers are about to rush into Paraguay, where ranchland is cheap and the politicians don’t steal their profits.

Unfortunately, I didn’t get the answers I was looking for from Tito Saguier. At one point, I asked him for details on Argentine and Brazilian import duties. He didn’t have an answer. He wasn’t familiar with the trade terms of his neighbors.

And he was full of bland generalizations. “We want to increase economic production… and encourage foreign investment,” he would say without any further explanation.

I think Paraguay is ripe for investment. Let’s hope the government doesn’t get in the way…

Good investing,

Tom

Source: What I Heard from a Government Official in a Small Tax Haven

Buenos Aires, Argentina May 26, 2008

Upon my arrival at home last Friday, my wife approached me with the following question: “What is the UNASUR?” Initially, I really did not know how to respond… I already have answers to some of her questions related to domestic issues such as why she cannot spend more money, why I have my clothing all messed up, who ate something, and others … but explaining the UNASUR really left me with no immediate answers at all.

To give you a little background, last Friday twelve South American countries formally ratified the Union of South American Nations Treaty (UNASUR), a regional integrative initiative going back informally to 2004. UNASUR hopes to strengthen Latin American and Caribbean unity by working together to create solutions to persistent regional problems while at the same time respecting the sovereign rights and territorial integrity of the individual member states. UNASUR hopes to achieve these goals through the development and implementation of policies addressing a diversity of issues such as those related to politics, economics, social and cultural issues, the environment, energy, infrastructure development and more. It is hoped that through addressing these concerns, solutions will also be found for the ongoing problems related to persistent poverty, social exclusion and inequality.

The members of UNASUR are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Perú, Surinam, Uruguay and Venezuela. To give you an idea of the importance of the region constituting this union: it includes 388 million citizens with a combined GDP of $ 1.9 billion, (3.5% of the world’s GDP).

UNASUR will be headquartered in Quito, Ecuador and consist of four main bodies: the Council of Heads of State and Government, the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, the Council of Delegates, and the General Secretariat. It will also create a South American Parliament, seated in the city of Cochabamba, Bolivia.

One of those most delighted by the creation of this new union was Brazilian President Lula who pointed out that: “we shall move forward with innovative projects and will fully attain the goal of financial and energetic integration, as well as that of realizing the improvement of regional infrastructure, and the creation of a social cooperation agenda.” Lula, as always, has in mind ambitious ideas where of course, Brazil takes the lead in initiatives.

In reality, the creation of UNASUR has taken many by surprise as it has happened at a moment in history when the union of so many countries seems unimaginable.

Relating to this idea, we should be mindful that this union was created at a time when many Latin American countries have reached a powerful level of macroeconomic and institutional consolidation; achieving international recognition as having gained the much desired investment grade for many of its countries.

The establishment of regional blocks is more viable now with the consolidation of the economy and institutions within these countries, coupled with a long-term vision. The regional blocks of the past have not reached significant achievements in the long run due to difficulties within their individual countries, recurrent crisis and political instability. Mercosur serves as a prime example of these kinds of problems.

In the instance of UNASUR, there is a political and ideological fragmentation among many of the signatory countries. There are countries with serious internal problems such as Bolivia. Venezuela and Argentina are plagued with internal issues as well, but to a lesser extent. There are also member state conflicts such as those between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Additionally, there are ideological divisions between several countries that make it very difficult to imagine how those countries could go forward with the successful coordination of policies.

UNASUR’s successful unification of regional forces having benefits realized by all member states will depend in part on the influential leadership of Brazil coupled with the lessening of individual differences between countries.

This brings us to the question: what benefits could UNASUR bring investors in the region? I think that there are no short-term benefits. However, if UNASUR is able to successfully establish itself, it can then contribute to the development of the regional financial market (one of its main stated goals) creating one with stronger depth and liquidity than other financial markets of the region. More importantly, UNASUR can contribute to the strengthening of the regional economies, underpinning their growth and development which will benefit the investor who will then find less risk and more profitability in their investments in the region.

The UNASUR has just been born. It will be necessary to give it time to grow and develop. We hope that the countries comprising this new group allow this to happen.

We will meet again tomorrow,

Horacio Pozzo

Editor’s Note: A new community in South America is born with a variety of diverse and complex objectives spanning cultural, social and economic realms… another aim is the social inclusion, the civic participation, the strengthening of democracy for all… Horacio’s wife is asking questions and Horacio finds he does not know how to respond. If you want to know, keep on reading… Enjoy, and send your comments to the editor here: paola@latinforme.com