When announced on Thursday the Trade Balance should show a smaller deficit, perhaps for no other reason than the recent strengthening of the dollar. Some of the shrinking is perhaps due to fewer imports lately due to the downturn in the economy. We aren’t buying as many cars and huge televisions right now, so imports have to be trailing off.

On Friday, the retail sales reports for October are released. I hate to sound like a broken record, but there is not much else to say other than they are expected to continue to show a decline. People are simply not shopping right now. Malls are empty, retailers are closing locations, and other than a Christmas miracle, things aren’t looking to rebound anytime soon. The one retailer that may have a chance keep thriving is WalMart. We will find out Thursday when they report earnings.

The other report of note this week is the Michigan Sentiment Index. Following suit, the report is likely to show a slight decline versus last month. If the report does show a decline, I think this will be the last decline we might see for awhile. Next month I think we will see a gain, for no other reason than optimism after the recent election. I don’t know how long it will last, but I think at least a one-month bounce is very likely.

Earnings:
Monday: AIG, SBUX
Wednesday: AMAT, NTAP
Thursday: WMT

Source: Retail Sales Front Dominate During A Relatively Quiet Week