The $140bn BHP Billiton move on Rio Tinto first appeared on the boards back in February. “Await documents” has been flashing ever since. There is absolutely no hope of BHP’s offer for Rio even reaching official posting stage for months.

Like any frustrated traveller, investors need some idea of what is happening. Actually there is more hope here than with BAA. At last there has been one decisive step. Being loudly broadcast is the fact that a vital regulatory stage has been reached. Permission is being applied to remove a major block from the wheels.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining group, has at last formally filed with the European Commission for clearance to take over rival Rio Tinto. This showed up in a Commission list of M&A cases last Friday.

The Commission, the European Union’s executive arm and also its antitrust regulator, set a deadline of July 4 for consideration of the deal. By that date the Commission must either approve the deal on competition grounds, open an in-depth investigation, or permit a short extension.

All sorts of points could give the Commission problems. Combining a number of BHP and Rio’s businesses would bring market dominance. So, Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes is expected to be brought in.

Rio Tinto spurned BHP’s all-share offer very shortly after BHP announced it. The Rio line has consistently been that the bid is “ballparks” away from a fair offer.

The two companies have sparred over who had the better growth rate. Rio maintained that it expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% for the next seven years. BHP countered that it did not believe those numbers. In its view Rio would growth by 6% a year for the next five years. BHP, on the other hand, says it will grow at 6.9%.

Lots of people are unhappy – mainly customers

This, for sure, is no friendly takeover – the atmosphere is strongly hostile. And not just from Rio. All sorts of interested parties are doing their best to block the bid, too.

Major objectors are customers. The fear is that without competition, BHP will be able to charge whatever prices it likes. It would become a super mining major with sway over the global supply of a large number of minerals and metals.

The Chinese have taken their concern as far as buying a chunk of Rio to protect it. Earlier this year Chinalco and the US aluminium giant Alcoa bought 9 per cent of Rio in a $14bn raid. This is the largest single shareholding.

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Things had gone quiet for weeks before the EU story broke. Having started the bid with some pretty public rows, both companies went behind the scenes for the various talks that have been going on non-stop.

Informal talks have been held with regulators, and these had begun to leak out. The EU, for instance, is said to believe that the market strength of the combined company would inevitably lead to price hikes. This would slow economic growth even further. The Wall Street Journal put the cat among the pigeons by saying that the EU was really unhappy.

Both companies have also been going the round of shareholders, putting their cases directly. Some shareholders had been thinking the offer would be increased before now. No sign of any hike yet, however.

A case for asset upgrades here?

The battle moved back into the open last week. Rio held a marathon seminar in London. The aim was to show BHP’s bid as far, far too cheap. Rio wants the market to revalue its assets too, in the light of a forecast that world demand for its metals will double by 2022. Chinese growth is major factor in its new predictions.

Managing director Tom Albanese said that with each passing year “people have been taking what we believe is a more realistic view of the total China story”.

“In that environment, greenfield projects are becoming more valuable. And I think they will continue to be more valuable in the future,” he said.

Rio has been trading at a discount to the bid

His comments come as Rio’s share price traded at a discount of over 8% discount to the implied value of BHP’s offer. Mr Albanese blamed this on uncertainty about when the bid would proceed. But he stopped well short of saying that BHP’s 3.4-for-1 offer was nearing the ballpark in terms of value.

“We’ve said in the past that the board has reviewed the BHP Billiton pre-conditional takeover offer,” he said. “We took it seriously. We rejected it. We rejected it on the basis of value. Rio Tinto as a stand-alone company is worth much, much more than anything that we’ve seen presented to us.”

But he did not succeed last week in propelling the Rio share price to above the bid level.

BHP will probably wait until the regulatory processes are all finished before adding any sweeteners. Anyway, the current view is, it won’t put up its offer until posting formal offer document.

Timing? Probably late 2008 at best!

Keep mining.

Erin and Isabel

Source: Rio Investors Should Continue Waiting in the Hall

 Three stocks just executed stocks splits in May — all of which should be part of your portfolio.

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR: NYSE)

PBR engages in the exploration, development and production of oil, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas in Brazil. It’s quickly emerging as one of the world’s top oil and energy companies. Petrobras split 2- for- 1 on May 8.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF: NYSE)

CLF is a mining company that produces iron ore pellets and supplies metallurgical coal to the steelmaking industry in North America. So long as steel demand remains hot, shares of CLF will continue to rise. Cleveland-Cliffs split 2- for- 1 on May 16.

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP: NYSE)

With high gas prices crippling the trucking industry, Union Pacific’s 32,205 rail miles linking the Pacific and Gulf c oasts with the M idwestern and eastern United States offers a strong investment thesis. UNP shares split 2- for- 1 on May 29 .

Based on my experience with stock splits, all three will continue moving higher. I consider all three names strong buys at current levels.

Sincerely,

Bryan Bottarelli, Bottarelli Research

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Source: Three Bullish Plays 

This corruption makes Russia a more speculative way to own commodities than say Australia or Canada. But it’s a speculation the market likes right now. Let’s look at Central Europe and Russia Fund (CEE). This ETF is one of the most liquid ways to buy Russian stocks. A big chunk of the fund is in Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas company. Monster base-metal miner Norilsk Nickel also carries a large weighting.

The bull market in resources has helped the CEE gain 450% in the past five years. As you can see from today’s chart, Russia may be corrupt, but in a world of $130 oil, the market is saying, “Who cares about corruption? Just give me a good commodity play.”

Source: The Corrupt Way to Own Commodities

From the air, the north end of the Carlin Trend looks like a suburban housing development – of gold mines. Most of the mines dotting this region are simply huge holes in the ground (called open-pit mines) but several of the richest mines follow the ore bodies nearly a half-mile underground.

The Leeville Mining Complex, owned by mining giant Newmont Mining, contains one such underground mine. It’s part of a huge cluster of mines located on the north end of the Carlin Trend.

The mine I visited, West Leeville, should produce about 400,000 ounces per year for six to eight years… and provide a revenue stream of about $100 million to $150 million at today’s gold prices. While Newmont technically owns this stream of gold, another company gets a steady paycheck from that production…

You see, if Nevada were a sovereign nation, it would be the world’s third-largest gold producer. The state produced 6.3 million ounces last year, 78% of U.S. gold production, and 12% of the world’s production. The heart of Nevada gold production is the Carlin Trend, which has produced more than 50 million ounces since the 1960s.

While Nevada’s mining riches are no secret to many investors, few have heard of the gold royalty business. Investing in gold royalty streams gives you a safe and diversified way to participate in the bull market in gold… without risking it all on one big strike or worrying about rising production costs.

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You see, building a large gold mine is usually a messy, expensive business.

First, you have to pay geologists to scour the Earth in search of prospective ore bodies – but that’s only after paying governments the proper permitting and licensing fees.

Let’s say you find a large body of ore after punching hundreds (and often thousands) of exploratory drill holes. Now you have to spend millions on mine infrastructure. This includes roads, mine shafts, electricity, and a smelter. In Newmont’s case with the West Leeville mine, it took six years and hundreds of millions of dollars to get it up and running.

One way a producer offsets that cost is by selling a small royalty for the life of the mine. In general, a royalty is simply the right to receive a portion of a mineral resource. It could be oil, gold, copper, or any other commodity.

The mining company gets a lump-sum payment up front, and the royalty investor gets a paycheck for the life of the mine. A royalty company may make hundreds of small investments to spread its risk and even out future payments. The royalty company then distributes a small portion of its paychecks to shareholders through dividends and invests the rest in new projects.

Investing in royalty companies is like taking the shotgun approach to mining. You get many small chances to participate in exploration, so you have the potential of a big discovery. In addition, you have minimal risk and you get a paycheck for the risk you do take.

I believe gold’s bull market will last a long, long time… and the more gold rises, the more money these royalty companies will make. If you don’t own any gold stocks, and you’re not sure how to get started, gold royalty companies are a fantastic option for the conservative investor.

Good investing,

Matt

P.S. I think royalty companies are the ideal gold investments to put in your retirement account and forget about for years. If you’d like to learn more about them and my favorite picks in the sector, click here.

Source: A Shotgun Approach to Gold Investing

Then last week, I came across a piece about how the cost of treating water is “going through the roof.” The main culprit is, once again, the rising price of sulfuric acid.

As one water utility rep said:

As sulfuric acid prices increase, so do the products that contain this ingredient. The U.S. has also seen a shortage in supply of sulfuric acid. The U.S. has imported the majority of sulfuric acid from China in the past, but recently, China has slowed the trade of sulfuric acid to the U.S. because its own demand is greater than what China can produce for both the U.S. and itself.

In short, demand is swamping supply. Sulfuric acid prices in March hit a record high of $329 per ton, according to Purchasingdata.com, after trading at $90 per ton as recently as October.

Sulfuric acid shortages? Hmmm… Well, time to take a look at this, I think…

“Sulfuric acid is one of those unheralded lubricants that keep the gears of the industrial economy spinning,” says Chemical and Engineering News. “Although less in the limelight than petrochemicals such as ethylene or polyethylene, it is, in fact, the largest-volume chemical in the world.”

We use sulfuric acid in mining to extract copper, nickel, and uranium. We use it in steel production and in making fertilizers. We use it to refine oil and to treat wastewater. It goes into the plastics we make, and a bunch of other things.

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The biofuel boom has kicked off a big increase in the demand for sulfuric acid. In fact, some 60% of the sulfuric acid ends up in agriculture. The surge in ethanol production is a double whammy on sulfuric acid. First, all that corn needs fertilizers. And second, the ethanol facilities themselves also use sulfuric acid in their own processing. A typical ethanol facility requires 2,000-4,000 tons of sulfuric acid per year.

Then there is that great demand pull from China and India. Traditionally, these two countries produced what they needed. But now their own rapid industrialization has turned the tables. They’ve switched from being exporters to importers of sulfuric acid.

The boom in metals such as copper and nickel also drives the demand for sulfuric acid. Smelting operations typically throw off sulfuric acid as a byproduct. But even here, metals companies need more than they can produce.

Supply is also tight. As with many commodities, there was a long period when sulfuric acid prices went nowhere. This led to a decrease in production facilities. I found one example of a closure as late as November 2006, when GenTek shut down a sulfuric acid facility due to “adverse market conditions.”

There also seems to be little new capacity on tap. Industrial Info Resources, in Sugar Land, Texas, tracks this sort of thing. According to IIR, of the $89 million invested in sulfuric projects in the U.S. in 2007, most of the funds went toward planned maintenance, rather than expanded capacity.

It turns out that not only is supply tight, but there are all kinds of transportation bottlenecks in delivery – such as a shortage of rail cars. Key Compton, president of a sulfuric acid producer in Texas, said toward the end of last year that customers soon “may be paying prices for sulfuric acid that they’ve never seen before.”

So how can you play it?

Well, there are a number of producers of sulfuric acid. Most are big chemical companies that you wouldn’t own because you want exposure to sulfuric acid. Owning them is like buying Home Depot because you think it sells a great lawn mower.

There are a few tiny players here that I’m currently researching for my readers. But since this sector is red-hot at the moment and appealing on many levels, I’m sharing the insights I’ve gleaned so far. I would advise all investors to do the same.

The skyrocketing price of sulfuric acid shows how interrelated the world’s commodity markets and economies have become. And these interrelationships can produce investment opportunities at light speed. I’ve written about my favorite opportunities in these pages before. (You can read my energy idea here and my metals idea here.)

Agriculture, energy, metals… they’re all threads in one big story – one big, rapidly evolving story.

Good investing,

Chris Mayer

Editor’s note: Chris Mayer is the editor of Capital & Crisis, a monthly advisory we consider required reading at DailyWealth. With Chris’ research, you can always count on contrarian investment ideas you won’t read about anywhere else. Click here to learn more about Capital & Crisis and how Chris has compiled one of the most amazing track records in the business. We think a subscription is one of the best investment deals available today.

Source: You’ve Never, Ever Considered This Agriculture Investment…

Except for a couple of short, sharp dips in the far East, platinum was tightly rangebound between $2160 and $2180, ending in the middle at $2170/oz., down $3. For the week, platinum was up 2%.

Silver also bottomed in Hong Kong, pushed higher until the second hour of NYMEX trading, when it fell steeply into the noon hour, but then recovered and forged a nicely positive afternoon, closing at $18.19/oz., up 23 cents. For the week, silver rose 7.4%.
(Click here for charts)

It was a strong finish to the week for all of the precious metals, as they headed into the holidays with an uptrend interrupted by only one day of profit taking.

Support was added yesterday by the usual suspects, as oil rebounded from Thursday and the dollar fell again, but the action was muted as “the trading crowd thinned out and as few participants were willing to add substantial positions to logbooks at this juncture,” wrote Kitco’s Jon Nadler.

As gold climbs, while most shares in the companies who mine the stuff continue to languish, many investors are wondering why. There’s probably no simple answer, but Bill Murphy, of LemetropoleCafé.com, hazards a guess:

“At times like this,” Murphy writes, “when The Gold Cartel is going all out, it is critical to keep the big picture in focus. Gold is on pace to finish the year up again. This will make it 8 years in a row … and still Planet Wall Street pays it scant attention and only when it has to. The likely upside potential for gold and silver is staggering … as future demand for both will probably go off the charts, while mine supply is declining and available central bank gold supply dries up (already it seems the ECB banks are now inclined to keep most of what they have left).

“Yet, while gold will rise for the 8th year in a row, the shares of most of the gold/silver companies have been brutalized for the last couple of years, and gone in a complete tailspin vis-a-vis the bullion prices. It is a strange phenomenon which is somewhat difficult to explain. I attribute most of it to the market analysts. VERY FEW are bullish … most are neutral to bearish at these prices. FEW out there are telling Joe and Jane investor to buy, which means there is little demand … with all rallies sold before the coming price plunge.

“As a result, many share prices of the quality junior/exploration companies are at bargain basement prices. They present an extraordinary opportunity for investors with cash to put in play. At this point I have no idea when this demoralized sector will spring to life, except to say it ought to be sooner rather than later.”

Source: Gold Rises in Thin Pre-holiday Trading – Analyst Looks at Lagging Mining Equities

Older and smarter minds than mine, minds resting in the cranium of Explorers’ League members, for instance, have been convinced that a number of major discoveries would be announced.

But so far, other than a small handful that appear to hold the stuff, there has only been one legitimate elephant bagged; by the team of Aurelian (T.ARU). Unfortunately, the carcass of that particular elephant rests entirely within the sketchy outlines of the nation of Ecuador where the locals are currently circling like a pack of hungry hyenas.

It has been our contention that what was needed to light the fuse on the junior exploration stocks would be, in no specific order:

1. Sustained higher gold prices.
2. Improving financials and free cash flow of the major producers.
3. A discovery to heat the blood of the investing community.

So far, we have had (1) and we are beginning to see (2), but (3) has proved remarkably elusive.

Now, don’t misunderstand. You can have a whopper of a bull market in these stocks without the discovery – that was the case in the 1970s bull market. But a discovery that fires the imagination can jump-start things in a big way, no question about it.

Evidence of that statement is provided by the gold share bull market of the mid-1990s, the most powerful to date, which occurred against a back drop of flat to falling gold prices. In case some of the big winners from that market have slipped from your memory, they include returns such as; Cartaway, up 26,040%; Pacific Amber, up 4,376%; Arequipa, up 5,692%, and so on and so forth.

So, What’s Going On?

According to MineWeb, Peter Munk, the somewhat unpopular chairman and acting CEO of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, stated at the company’s recent AGM that there have been “virtually no new discoveries.”

While we might disagree around the edges of that statement, Chairman Munk is technically correct in that the level of discoveries being made is a small fraction of that needed to replace the depleting reserves of the gold producers.

In short, we appear to have reached the era of Peak Gold. Whereas a major discovery used to be 10 million ounces or more, the threshold for attention-getting discoveries these days has fallen to more along the lines of 1 to 3 million ounces… and even those are hardly falling off the trees.

Viewed from the perspective of an investor in the junior resource sector, this lack of discoveries means the fuse is lit – starting with straight-up supply and demand fundamentals – for a rocket shot tomorrow. Adding boosters to the rocket, we have a commodities bull market that shows no sign of ending anytime soon and, while the U.S. dollar will periodically rebound, it is not going to somehow reinvent itself as sound money in our lifetime.

Importantly, as you can clearly read between the lines in Chairman Munk’s words, once the majors get cashed up and serious about replacing their reserves, they are going to have to look downstream to the juniors with discoveries… even if those discoveries are below the 5-million-ounce threshold they previously required to even consider taking an ore body into production.

A Risk and an Opportunity

Of course, lowering the threshold on deposit size will require trade-offs. For example, in order to be considered for an acquisition, a smaller deposit will almost certainly have to be near surface and open-pittable. It will also have to be near good infrastructure, and located in a jurisdiction with good laws and reasonable taxation. There is, in this situation, an opportunity and a risk.

Starting with the latter, if your portfolio now includes companies going after deposits in the one- to five-million-ounce range, you need to make sure they are not in a remote location, or will require going underground or building a mill to process sulfides. (Under 1 million ounces? Fuggedaboudit!)

As for the opportunity, while the odds and the amount of exploration spending still favor that we’ll see the discovery of at least one and maybe two monster deposits in this cycle (there are a couple of companies advancing projects with that potential), and early shareholders will make fortunes as a result, there has rarely been a better time to invest in junior exploration companies with modestly sized projects in good locations. That said, you should still be focusing only on projects with at least 2 million ounces, or the strong potential of same.

In other words, take the opportunity in these down markets to focus on getting positioned ahead of the majors… that’s where the big money will be made as things gather steam again going forward.

David Galland is managing director of Casey Research, publishers of the International Speculator, now in its 28th year. The current edition includes “Courting the Majors,” a feature on what attributes the major mining companies are looking for in a junior explorer. All new subscribers are invited to give the International Speculator a three-month trial with an unquestioning 100% money-back guarantee. Learn more and sign up now to receive the current edition.

By David Galland, Casey Research

Source: Gold, What Gold?

–”China may be chasing Twiggy,” reports Matthew Stevens in today’s Australian. “There is talk in New York that the Rudd Government has approved an application from China’s Baosteel to acquire 16 per cent of the iron ore maverick, Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG). Fortescue says it does not know whether its biggest Chinese customer has even made an application to the Foreign Investment Review Board, let alone received a green light.”

–Fortescue is the low-hanging fruit in the iron ore sector. It’s easy pickings. It aims to be the third major ore producer in the Pilbara, behind BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO). It’s not surprising that Baosteel-China’s largest steel maker-would go over the biggest plum in the pie.

–What IS surprising is just how far into the iron ore sector Chinese companies are drilling for ownership of undefined resource bases that are years away from production. It speaks to the strength of demand for iron ore…and the itch in Chinese pockets to trade U.S. dollars for real assets before the dollar falls even more…or before the Chinese revalue their own currency.

–First up on the menu yesterday was FerrAus (ASX: FRS), a member of the North West Iron ore Alliance we mentioned last Thursday. China’s Shanghai-listed Western Mining Company announced its intention to take a 10% stake in FerrAus at $1.15 a share through a share placement arrangement. Regulators have to approve the deal.

–Here’s the interesting thing about this deal; Western Mining is a base metals miner. It doesn’t even produce iron ore. It just likes the cut of FerrAus’s jib. And for its part, Adelaide-based FerrAus hasn’t even proven up its indicated resource of 43 million tonnes. But hey, when the market value of the assets is going up, these kinds of deals get done.

–And there are more of them. Gindalbie Metals (ASX:GBG) shot down rumours that Angang and Iron and Steel was seeking to increase the 13% stake it already has in the mid-West iron ore junior (a member of the Geraldton Iron Ore Alliance). Investors may or may not have been convinced. But they seemed to like Gindablie’s announcement that it would spend $10 million this year on 12 drilling targets that it hopes will yield 80-100 million tonnes of hematite ore in the Pilbara. The shares closed up 16%.

–And the beat goes on. Prosperity Resources (ASX:PSP) announced that Shougang Holding Limited would buy up to 19.9% of the company through a share placement. To be honest, we had never even heard of Propserity Resources until this morning. Perhaps we are not digging and drilling thoroughly enough.

–We do like at least one thing about the company, though-its ticker symbol. PSP is the acronym we’ve taken to using for a new research service we hope to launch soon, the Penny Stock Prospector.

–We want to offer your our research into the junior mining and energy shares…and hopefully suss out the shares that are moving. It will be as close as you can get to pure speculation. But there’s so much going on in the resource sector now that it’s more than we can cover in Diggers and Drillers.

–Low-hanging fruit is easy to pick. But there’s plenty of fruit on the tree if you’re willing to shake the tree a little. If the PSP sounds like something you’d be interested or you have a hot share tip you can’t wait to share, drop us a line at dr@dailyreckoning.com.au

–By the way, the Koreans are getting busy too. Posco, the world’s fourth-largest steel maker, announced its intention to buy 19.9% of Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR). The mineral grab goes on.

Source: www.bigcharts.com

–What do you think of the chart above? Seriously. Can you really believe spot crude oil is up 53% in the last year? Oil rocketed up in New York overnight, busting through US$120 before settling just below at US$119.67 by the time trading got going thismorning in Sydney.