• Senate Democratic leaders late yesterday (Thursday) abandoned plans for an overhaul of the nation’s $2.4 trillion healthcare system before Congress recesses in August – dealing U.S. President Barack Obama a major political blow. The decision was delivered by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who said that “it’s better to have a product based on quality and thoughtfulness rather than try to jam something through.” The decision to reject President Obama’s ambitious timetable – he wanted a vote on the plan before Congress adjourned – had been anticipated for weeks. Sen. Reid’s comments mirrored those of Republicans, who feared the implications of a quick vote on such a politically charged issue.

• Sagging worldwide PC and server sales resulted in a 17% revenue decline and a 29% drop in Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT)fourth quarter ended June 30. The company reported a net income of $3.05 billion, or 34 cents per share on revenue of $13.1 billion, compared to a net income of $4.29 billion, or 46 cents per share on revenue of $15.83 in the same quarter last year. For the year, the software giant posted a net income of $14.56 billion, or $1.63 a share on revenue of $58.43 billion, compared to a net income of $17.68 billion, or $1.90 per share on revenue of $60.42 billion in the same quarter last year.

• Initial unemployment benefit claims in the United States grew by 30,000 to 554,000 for the week ended July 18, according to the Department of Labor. However, the less volatile four-week moving average shrank, falling by 19,000 to 566,000. “The numbers have come down but they still have a ways to go down before the bleeding of jobs is over,” said Andrew Gretzinger, a senior economist at MFC Global Investment Management in a Bloomberg News interview. “The labor market is still weak and is going to remain that for some time to come.”

• Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) has raised its target for Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) from $150 to $225 following its strong second quarter showing and impressive iPhone sales. Apple moved 5.2 million units of its lucrative iPhone, exceeding Deutsche’s projection of 5 million. Deutsche estimates iPhone margins to be roughly 60%. Another reason for Deutsche’s optimism regarding Apple is it expects the iPhone’s international reach to expand from 18 to 80 countries by the end of the September quarter, with a possible partnership with China Unicom Limited (NYSE ADR:CHU) as early as this fall, representing the iPhone’s debut in the emerging market.

• Existing home sales in June rose by 3.6% to a 4.89 million annual rate from a revised 4.72 million in May, when the number rose by 2.4% according to the National Association of Realtors. “Housing may no longer be the weakest link,” said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. “Demand has clawed itself back to where it was a year ago, a very nice signal that the market has not only hit bottom but is making its way back.” In another sign the housing market may be on the upswing, rates on fixed-rate mortgages increased this week to 5.20%, up from 5.14% last week, Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a prepared statement.

• Increasing landline cancellations and heavy iPhone subsidies contributed to a 15% drop in profit for AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The company reported a net income of $3.2 billion, or 54 cents a share on revenue of $30.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $3.8 billion, or 64 cents a share on revenue of $30.86 in the same quarter last year. The company did benefit from the new iPhone model released last month, activating 2.4 million accounts for the smartphone in the United States.

• Rising customer traffic and operating income could not helpMcDonald’s Corp.’s (NYSE: MCD) profit, which fell 8.1% in the second quarter due to currency fluctuations, the company said. The fast-food chain posted a net income of $1.09 billion, or 98 cents a share on revenue of $5.65 billion for the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $1.19 billion, or $1.04 a share on revenue of $6.08 billion in the same period last year.

• 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) suffered an 18% drop in its profit, but beat expectations due to stronger demand for electronic healthcare products in its second quarter ended June 30.  The conglomerate posted a profit of $783 million, or $1.12 a share on revenue of $5.7 billion, compared to a net income of $945 million, or $1.33 a share on revenue of $6.7 billion in the same quarter last year.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 24, 2009

Amazon remains the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the online retailing space. And business is both healthy and growing. But the company is counting on a whole new series of technology-based ventures that will provide the real fuel that will put this stock into orbit. Let’s take a closer look.

Just last Thursday, in yet another positive “surprise” that Wall Street missed predicting, Amazon annihilated analysts’ earnings estimates by announcing a big jump in fourth-quarter profits and told investors even better days are ahead.

Fourth-Quarter Fireworks

In a financial-crisis environment in which there is supposedly no financing available, in which massive job cuts and huge job worries are causing consumers to cut way back on their spending, in which all retailers – even vaunted discounter Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) – face huge challenges, Amazon actually increased its sales and profits.

In fact, Amazon’s fourth-quarter net income rose a hefty 9%. And not only did its per-share earnings of 52 cents blast through the Wall Street consensus of 39 cents by a full 33%, the company actually boosted its first-quarter outlook, stating that it expected sales to be stronger than analysts were predicting.

For the fourth quarter, Amazon’s sales advanced 18%, beating analysts’ expectations by about 4%. Sales actually would have grown by 24%, were it not for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

International sales were even stronger, and now account for a full 45% of Amazon’s overall sales.  One notable category was electronics and general merchandize advanced 31%, and that category now accounts for 43% of worldwide sales.

One particularly noteworthy achievement was in the area of gross margins, which suffered almost no damage – in spite of a U.S. recession that’s forcing most retailers to discount heavily. Amazon’s gross margins barely budged, dropping from a fairly remarkable 20.6% to a still-enviable 20.1%.

Remember, this outlook and performance is taking place in a market environment where there’s very little “visibility” – meaning company executives have almost no ability to predict what the market will look like next month, let alone in the next quarter or for next year. That’s forced a lot of companies to discount heavily, and is a key reason that a large number of firms have stopped issuing “forward guidance.”

But not Amazon: It continues to provide guidance – and then to exceed those expectations.

How is the company making this happen? These results point to strong market-share gains for Amazon and to new lines of business being introduced, which are powering the stock higher.  But, before we go deeper into Amazon, let’s consider the economic backdrop, in order to fully appreciate magnitude of Amazon’s accomplishments.

Anatomy of a Meltdown

In my 25-year investment career, I have seen countrywide market meltdowns like the one we’re struggling through perhaps every two or three years.  The hallmark of these crises has been an implosion of the banking system, which has then brought the entire economy down, as well.

In an effort to provide some context – and perhaps some reassurance to U.S. investors – let me say that I’ve seen much worse than what we are seeing in the United States right now. For instance, there are actually cases where all of a country’s banking deposits are either frozen (Argentina 2002) or lost outright (Russia 1998).

In each of those cases, there were two constants:

• From a business standpoint, the strong got stronger as their weaker rivals foundered and failed, allowing them to pick up market share and sometimes to even buy those smaller or weaker rivals.
• From a stock-market-valuation standpoint, however, the strong were initially equally punished in terms of their market valuations as the broader equity markets blew up, meaning their valuations didn’t reflect the much-brighter outlooks for them as stronger market leaders. However, when the market outlook brightened, those stronger firms saw their valuations surge with a vengeance and soar to new heights.

The lesson from each of those crises – from Brazil and Argentina, to more than 10 countries in Asia and in Russia – was that every single country made it back.
This was even true for those countries shackled with inferior policy mixes.  Some might say that Japan – with its “lost decade” – never came back.  This would be an imprecise statement, since Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was above 2.0% for the two years prior to the crisis and unemployment for the last five years has been between 3.45 % and 4.5%
But what is true is that while even countries with inferior policy mixes eventually made it back, it took a lot longer for that to happen. The speed of their comebacks can be traced to the degree in which the policies implemented made them:

• Open-market oriented, especially with regards to foreign capital.
• A lower-taxation environment.
• Strongly fiscally disciplined – for the long term – because the governing body addressed such serious structural economic problems as imbalances in both the social security and health-care systems.
• Less constricted by regulation.
• More transparent, in both the private and public sectors, especially in cases where the public sector overhauls led to a more democratic governing process.
• More-consensus oriented, particularly when that consensus included support for all the changes I’ve listed here.

While we are not seeing an unequivocal embrace of these tried-and-true recipes by the newly installed Barack Obama administration, mainly because of a bias toward big government, we are seeing an open-minded attitude and some movement in this direction.  And we will have to monitor this closely, because history shows us repeatedly that there are no half measures when it comes to successful economic and financial reform – and because market investors know this and will therefore be watching closely.

Forewarned is Forearmed …and Other Axioms to Live By

This background is important, for we now know that we can expect to see some once-in-a-generation buying opportunities in companies that can navigate this slowdown and position themselves for a massive subsequent rebound.

We also have to remember that his rebound won’t be immediate. But when it does come, that rebound will be huge for the companies that have used this time to buttress their already-leading market position. They’ve capitalized on consolidations in their respective industries or market sectors, and have certainly grabbed market share away from their rivals. The maximum gains will be realized only if financial prudence prevails in the public sector.

Is that happening here in the U.S. market?

Well, we’re about to pass a huge stimulus – perhaps as much as $1 trillion or more, when all is said and done.

There’s an old axiom about government stimulus packages: When money is spent, the economy grows. The key, however, is at what cost and who pays for it. So the short-term “steroids” effect of the stimulus has to be measured against the long-term weight its costs will exert of future growth.  But, ahead of that steroids injection, investors need to invest in the beneficiaries.
A much-repeated market axiom states that  “no one buys at the bottom, and no one sells at the top.” Much like no one was – or will be – ringing a warning bell at the market bottom, no one was ringing a bell at the top a year and half ago.  And nobody will be letting you know which of these companies will be thriving and which will be vanishing – because the investors who understand all this are very busy accumulating them for themselves right now.

So it is no surprise that Wall Street missed by a mile on iconic companies that are thriving, including International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), United States Steel (NYSE: X), PMC-Sierra Inc. (Nasdaq: PMCS), Level 3 Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: LVLT), 3M Corp. (NYSE: MMM), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL), Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE: ADP), United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS), Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK), and many others.  And Wall Street always seems to miss to the downside in its estimates in these superb companies.

In the same way, Wall Street missed it with Amazon.  You see, Amazon survived the dot-com bubble because, unlike most of the start-ups, Amazon actually had a strong-and-viable business model.  In addition, starting with founder and chairman, Jeffrey P. Bezos, and continuing down through the rest of the organization, Amazon has in place a superb management team that has continued to carefully refine and build upon the company’s original vision, and has continued to execute almost flawlessly.

It’s not just the great value, convenience and solid customer service that contribute to Amazon’s results – it’s also innovation.

Those “Killer Apps” – “Cloud Computing” and the Kindle

Amazon first revolutionized the bookstore business. Then it revolutionized overall retailing. Now it’s aiming at the book-publishing business with its super-lightweight electronic reading device – called the Kindle. The Kindle allows you to buy and download books in less than a minute – from almost anywhere – without the need to connect to a computer or any device. Lots of books are available.

This is all possible because you are using the fastest wireless standard and the service is included in the price of the book you downloaded. And Kindle can hold some 200 books, newspapers and blogs and has free wireless access to Wikipedia.  The newspapers and blogs are downloaded automatically and updated instantaneously.  Kindle recharges in less than two hours and you can also email your own Word documents and pictures.

With all these features, I am seriously considering buying one. Here’s why:

• It will eliminate the need to walk down my long driveway to grab my copy of The Wall Street Journal every morning.
• It will be much easier to read than in my PC.
• All my downloads will stored in Amazon’s servers, just in case I lose or damage my Kindle.
• And it will save me countless trips to the library to pick up books for myself, and for my avid-reader daughters.

However, I’m going to wait until after Monday (Feb. 9), because Amazon has invited the news media to an event it has planned for the Morgan Library & Museum in New York City. The scuttlebutt is that Amazon could be announcing the “Kindle 2.0.”

By saving trees (reducing the need for paper) and eliminating the costs for printing, storage and delivery, publishers can reduce their costs considerably and pass part of those savings on to the consumer.  Therefore, the typical book will cost you $10 or less.  And you can even get some steals, like all sixteen novels by Charles Dickens in a single file, with an active table of contents – all for only 99 cents!

It’s incredible.  No wonder Kindle is expanding sales and margins for Amazon.

But Amazon’s “miracle” performance is not due just to the Kindle.  Amazon has jumped in on the fast-growing trend of “cloud computing.”  Now that the Internet has become ultra-fast, and is getting even faster – thanks to such hyper-fast, high-speed fiber-optic networks as the Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) FiOS broadband system – the balance has shifted towards centralized computing.

What this means is that with a relatively cheap computer and fast Internet access, one can perform most of the computational activities in the servers of somebody else.  So, somebody else will host the applications, store the data and perform the computation – for a fee, as it is accessed via the Internet.

Therefore, the need to maintain the storage and back it up, to keep your systems up to date and even to help prevent viruses is essentially transferred to the supplier of the service. This is especially important for individual users and small- and medium-businesses, which look to minimize all these costs.  But it is also very useful for some large enterprises in services where Amazon’s scale and expertise can deliver superior cost-savings and reliability.

Amazon aims to be a major player in this realm. Indeed, some analysts believe this could one day be the “real” Amazon business, with books and other retail goods serving only to bring folks in the door.

Amazon already provides storage, virtual private servers, elastic cloud computing, which gives developers a resizable capacity, content delivery and a number of other functions through its fast-growing cloud-computing activities.

This cloud-computing trend has also been embraced by Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG), though Google Apps, and Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO), which has forced Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), which is built on the premise of distributed computing, to hedge by planning to offer a cloud computing operating system.  The new operating system will enable net books (barebones notebooks), PDAs and other smartphones to take full advantage of sophisticated computing capabilities and massive storage located in the “cloud.”

Clearly, cloud computing will be an explosive business, especially in Amazon’s focus areas of storage, content distributions and scalable computational capacity.

So, with book sales, electronics and its international efforts already strong and accelerating, and the probability of a Kindle 2.0 announcement now imminent, we need to jump on Amazon, while planning to keep the stock for several years.

Rocking With Retailing

Is this consistent with a sound investment strategy for retailing stocks in the current weak-economy market environment?

I recently saw a noted short-seller, who runs a very successful hedge fund (and you have to be good to be still alive), who indicated that for the first time in a long time, he saw opportunities to make money both on the long and on the short side.  This is encouraging, since for the year and a half prior to last November, the opportunities on the long side have been overwhelmed by the financial meltdown and massive de-leveraging.

In addition, this hedge fund manager was asking a renowned investor in retail stocks what opportunities he saw for shorting these stocks.  The reply: You have to be very careful – even in retailers, which were experiencing big problems – because, in his opinion, valuations had fallen way too much.

I agree with both assessments. At this point, there are good opportunities to buy, and in retail you want to go with the winners.

For all the reasons we’ve detailed to you, Amazon is that “winner,” the strong company with a rock-solid business model that delivers value to customers, that innovates, that has a clear focus on expansion, and that is producing results even in one of the worst economic periods since the Great Depression.

Recommendation:  Buy Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) before Monday’s product announcement and ahead of the rollouts of the stimulus packages planned by both the United States and China (**).

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: Amazon Stock is Positioned as a Long-Term Winner

• Continuing jobless claims rose to 4.78 million, the highest levels in 42 years, as the U.S. labor market continues to worsen MarketWatch reported. Meanwhile, the four-week average of new claims rose by 24,250 to 542,500. The four-week average draws the attention of economists and investors because it smoothes out distortions caused by bad weather, strikes or the timing of holidays. Compared with the same week a year ago, first-time jobless claims are up about 63%, while continuing claims are up 71%.

• Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Banking Committee, is going after money awarded as bonuses to financial industry executives, Bloomberg reported. Dodd said he wants executives who took billions of dollars in government-rescue funds to repay the bonuses.  A report yesterday showed New York City financial firms disbursed $18.4 billion in cash bonuses in 2008 as the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program infused almost $200 billion into banks.

• Orders for durable goods dropped 2.6% last month after plunging 3.7% in November, the Commerce Department said.  It was the fifth straight month new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods had fallen, reflecting an ongoing pullback in the economy. For 2008 as a whole, orders tumbled 5%, the second biggest decline since 2001, Reuters reported.

• 3M Co. (MMM) said on Thursday that fourth-quarter profit and sales fell due to the economic downturn, but the company’s stock rose on hopes that the industrial manufacturer is well positioned for growth in the latter half of 2009, Reuters reported.  The company is a bellwether of the U.S. economy because of its geographic reach and varied lineup of products including Scotch tape to optical films for liquid crystal displays.

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) yesterday (Thursday) that its fourth-quarter profit rose 9% after having its “best ever” holiday season.  For the full year, Amazon earned $645 million, or $1.49 per share, on $19.2 billion in revenue. The company earned $476 million, or $1.12 per share, on revenue of $14.8 billion during 2007.

• Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 72 cents yesterday (Thursday) to settle at $41.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Storage tanks in the United States are housing more than 338.9 million barrels of crude oil, up from 15.7% from a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration.

• Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) said yesterday (Thursday) that it would cut up to 4,500 jobs after the company reported a 24% drop in fourth-quarter revenue. Kodak reported a loss of $137 million, or 51 cents per share, from continuing operations, compared with a profit of $215 million, or 75 cents per share, a year earlier.

Global Investment News Briefs Friday, January 30th, 2009

It will be interesting to see how the FOMC approaches this meeting. The current Fed Funds target rate is 0-0.25%, which in and of itself is rather strange. It is a moving target, not a fixed rate. Who determines which rate is used? My guess is this meeting will be used to clarify what the rate is. The Fed will either officially reduce it to 0% in a continued effort to resuscitate the economy, or lock it in at 0.25%. This would at least leave the Fed with one perceived bullet in the gun.

The rest of the week has a full slate, which starts this morning with the December Existing Home Sales report. Expectations are for a slowdown of 40k units versus the previous month, and I think that is overly optimistic. The housing reports last week both fell flat on their face so I don’t think this report, or the New Home Sales report on Thursday, will come anywhere close to expectations.

Tuesday morning sees the release of the Consumer Confidence report for January, and this one is a tough read for me. It is expected to be the same as the December reading of 38. I am not sure which one will have a bigger impact on the reading: consumers getting excited about a change in leadership, or fearful of more job cuts. I guess it all depends on when the reading was taken.

Earnings:
Mon: AXP, AMGN, CAT, HAL, MCD, TXN
Tues: BMY, DD, GILD, JAVA, YHOO
Wed: PFE, SBUX, WFC
Thurs: MMM, AMZN, CELG, CL, LLY, JNPR,
Fri: CVX, XOM, HON, PG,

Source: Fed Counts Bullets, Earnings Dominate Calendar

For optimists, the message here is that all hope for holiday retail sales is not yet lost. A National Retail Federation survey showed that only 47% of consumers have finished their holiday shopping and another 19% have not even started.  As a dismal 2008 comes to a close, the last die-hard eternal optimists are calling for a year-end Santa Claus Rally, as the government bailouts and U.S. Federal Reserve actions give investors some hope for 2009 and beyond.

But such blind optimism too often ignores a key point or two. The Dallas-based Neiman Marcus, for instance, just announced that its third-quarter earnings plunged 84% because of its aggressive discounting, the Dallas Morning News reported. And since the discounting will continue, so will the decline in profits, the high-end retailer conceded.

With even luxury retailers discounting to try and salvage something from the holiday shopping season, the outlook for lackluster sales and even-more-lackluster earnings feeds into an already dour outlook for the U.S. economy.

And if that doesn’t squelch the optimists’ ardor, then a looming revision in the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) – last reported as minus 0.5% – will almost certainly bring them back to the realities of the sluggish economy.

It may even force those optimistic economists to finally say: “Bah Humbug.”

That GDP report is due out tomorrow (Tuesday).

Market Matters

Though perhaps it’s wishful thinking, there are some analysts who point out that one or more of any number catalysts could jump-start the economy and the financial markets in the New Year, putting the past few miserable months in the rearview mirror.  They argue that the trillions of dollars in bailout money pumped into the financial system should finally start to provide badly needed liquidity; the Fed seems intent to do “whatever it takes” to reverse, or at least blunt, the current downturn (even if runaway inflation may be a repercussion down the road); an “Obamanomics” stimulus plan could create new jobs, while enhancing the country’s aging infrastructure; risk-free Treasury yields at 0.00% should start to look less and less attractive, prompting investors to look into stocks and non-government bonds again. Just a few last minute items to add to the holiday investment-shopping wish list.

Sadly, Bernie Madoff saw to it that his investors will have a holiday season to forget as the list of prominent victims grew each day: Real estate mogul Mort Zuckerman, U.S. Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg, D-N.J., Hollywood movie mogul Steven Spielberg, Spanish bank Banco Santander SA (ADR: STD), France’s BNP Paribas SA, Nomura Holdings Inc. (ADR: NMR), and many charitable foundations and non-profit organization were among the people and institutions victimized.

Plenty of finger-pointing has been directed at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for failing to uncover some rather obvious signs of wrongdoing through the years. As Money Morning reported even before the official announcement was made, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama tapped FINRA Chief Executive Officer Mary L. Schapiro to head the SEC during this time of turmoil. Congrats on the appointment, I guess?

The Detroit Big Three automakers received early holiday cheer as the U.S. Treasury Department will release $17.4 billion of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money in return for potential equity stakes and other concessions from management and unions.  General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC will be the recipients, while Ford Motor Co. (F) pursues – for now – the go-it-alone strategy. Meanwhile, Chrysler will be shutting down all of its North American production plants for at least a month and also will begin charging dealers large fees on unsold cars that remain on their lots after prolonged periods.  In perhaps a sign of things to come, a consortium of 14 companies – including 3M Co. (MMM) and Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) – have asked for $1 billion in government funding to begin manufacturing state-of-the-art batteries for electric cars.  The move is reminiscent of action taken by computer chip firms decades ago that helped make the industry more competitive domestically. (Johnson Controls also announced last week that it would invest $90 million to open a lead-acid-battery-production plant in China’s green-power energy industrial center in Changxing Economic Development Zone of Zhejiang province, Alibaba.com reported).

Energy traders disregarded the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production by a record 2.2 million barrels a day, fearing lack of compliance by its members. Instead, traders chose to focus on the shrinking demand in the sluggish economy as oil prices briefly fell below $35a barrel to levels not seen since 2004.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reported its first-ever quarterly loss and Morgan Stanley (MS) followed with a shortfall of its own.

FedEx Corp. (FDX) posted a higher profit, but gave a dire outlook and announced major compensation cuts for senior management (and benefits cuts for the rank and file).  Stocks were relatively flat as investors digested the latest on Madoff, the auto bailout, and significant Fed actions.

Economically Speaking

“The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.”

Too bad Fed Chief Ben S. Bernanke couldn’t punctuate that last statement with a hearty “Ho, ho, ho – happy holidays.”

After setting the target for the Federal Funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers revealed they are studying other measures and may purchase U.S. Treasuries at some point in an effort to stimulate the financial markets.
There are already some signs that the central bank’s action already are working. Mortgage rates have dropped dramatically and borrowers are taking advantage of refinancing opportunities to save on future interest payments.  Investors are finding value in corporate and municipal securities, as certain high-quality issues are yielding more than 6% more than comparable Treasuries. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank followed suit with a rate cut (to 0.1%) of its own.

More details of the Obama stimulus plan emerged during the week and his economic team pegs the total package at about $800 billion (or more than $1 trillion by the time Congress adds its required “pork.”).  Tax cuts of up to $100 billion will serve as the most immediate stimuli, with construction (infrastructure), energy and healthcare among the industries that will benefit the most over time.

The data of the week revealed that his package can not arrive soon enough.  Housing starts fell by 18.9%, to a record low, and declining building permits did not offer much promise for future construction. Another forecasting release, leading economic indicators, fell for the second consecutive month; in fact, over the past six months, the index has experienced its worst decline since 1991.

The inflation picture remains favorable, though naysayers find pessimistic views in that data as well.  The November consumer price index (CPI) fell 1.7%, the largest decline on record (since 1947), as gasoline prices plummeted by 29.5%. While the deflation-mongers claim that falling prices will force consumers to delay purchases (for when they become even cheaper), others point out that gas purchases can not be delayed, as people have to get to work (and few are choosing to ride their bikes or shift into mass transportation).  In reality, plunging gasoline serves as a stimulus package without any government interaction (though OPEC is getting involved).

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: If Holiday Retail Stats Don’t Have Economists Saying “Humbug,” Tuesday’s GDP Report Certainly Will

That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools).

And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an economy – especially when interest rates weren’t really the problem. And as several Money Morning investigative pieces have demonstrated, the low interest rates aren’t necessarily inducing banks to lend. Indeed, many banks are using the federal bailout money to finance buyout deals.

The ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Algeria on Wednesday and President Chakib Khelil implied that a surprisingly sizable production cut is in the cards.  While OPEC controls about 40% of the world’s oil supplies, energy analysts hold more stock in actions rather than words. Said one of those analysts: “You can announce all the cuts you want. Compliance is the key.”

Market Matters

In a major story last week, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may be eliminating 35,000 jobs as it adds Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) to its ever-growing list of subsidiary companies.

But in an even bigger story, Wall Street powerbroker, Bernard Madoff stole the headlines (and about $50 billion from investors in the process).  This former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) ASDAQ was arrested for committing perhaps the largest investor fraud in history (Enron may be off the hook) as Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities LLC appears to have been “basically a giant Ponzi scheme” (his own words).  Though the client list seemed relatively small, at first, the implications will be quite widespread, as some of the largest hedge funds of funds participated in Madoff’s investments; their clients include some of the world’s (formerly) wealthiest folks.  Additionally, regulators will have quite a few questions to answer as lax oversight failed to uncover this massive fraud that may have been perpetrated for years.  Stay tuned – this one isn’t going away any time soon.

In “lighter” news, the U.S. House of Representative passed a “preliminary” auto bailout package that would provide $14 billion to the Big Three – Ford Motor Co. (F) may not need any for now – and create a new car czar to oversee an industry restructuring.  While Wall Street initially hailed the move as a positive step to a necessary overhaul, the Senate demanded greater concessions from auto unions and the bill became basically “dead on arrival.”  Since the U.S. Treasury Department appears to be growing more comfortable with the bailout concept with each passing day, Bush administration officials implied that aid via the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) would be forthcoming even without Senate approval. By the way, an oversight committee gave the financial bailout a rather poor initial report card, claiming a lack of transparency in terms of how dollars are being spent and whether recipients are complying with government intentions (no wonder the automakers want to participate as well).

Elsewhere, Merrill’s John A. Thain reversed an earlier position by “choosing” to forgo his 2008 bonus and Morgan Stanley’s (MS) John J. Mack quickly followed suit.  The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), Sony Corp. (ADR: SNE), and 3M Corp. (MMM) joined BofA and others in announcing sizable job cuts.  FedEx Corp. (FDX) and The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) reduced prior outlooks and sales projections.

Oil prices fluctuated greatly as traders weighed contrasting supply/demand reports:

• The Energy Information Administration expects weak demand to result in declining consumption through 2009 even as significant production cuts could be announced at the upcoming OPEC meeting.
• With oil trading below $47 a barrel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (of “we’re going to $200/barrel fame”) contradicted past forecasts by claiming prices could fall to $30 (and lost some credibility in the process).

Stocks reacted favorably to rumors of President-elect Barack Obama’s $500+ billion stimulus package (see below) and the apparent progress with automaker negotiations.  As the week moved on, reports of new job losses and more financial woes halted the brief optimism and the Senate’s inability to pass an auto bill brought more excessive volatility.  A “flight-to-quality” sentiment contributed to yields on 3-month T-bills dipping to 0.0% (that’s ZERO percent … talk about risk averse).

Economically Speaking

“I am absolutely confident that if we take the right steps over the coming months, that not only can we get the economy back on track, but we can emerge leaner, meaner and ultimately more competitive and more prosperous.”

Somehow an economic stimulus plan which directs $500+ billion into new FDR-like public works programs to increase employment does not necessarily imply “leaner and meaner.”  Still, many analysts believe the Obama plan (still in its infancy) may be just the tonic needed to jumpstart the economy.

Meanwhile, the European Union announced its own $200 billion package as the 27 member countries struggle with global recession.  Not to be outdone, Japan revealed some sizable stimulus measures of its own late in the week.  With the recession already pushing a year in duration, Duke University released results of its Global Business Outlook Survey which showed that 60% of domestic CFOs believe the downturn will last until the 4th quarter of next year – and perhaps longer. Similarly, a
Wall Street Journal forecasting survey predicted four straight quarters of negative growth as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP, the longest period of economic contraction since the Great Depression.

A light week on the economic calendar ended with a couple of major reports that gave the Fed a bit more anecdotal material to (over-)analyze prior to the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. With claims for unemployment benefits soaring to their highest level since November 1982, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and friends must make job creation among their top priorities.  November retail sales fell by 1.8% as automakers reported their worst level of monthly activity in 26 years.

Still, the decline was less than Wall Street expected, leading Morgan Stanley’s analysts to speculate about future downward revisions.  Wholesale inflation (as measured by the producer price index, or PPI) declined by 2.2% as gasoline prices plummeted by 25% in November.  Normally, consumers would welcome such news and gladly spend those savings from the pumps at the malls during the holidays.  Instead economists continue to spread more “gloom and doom” by suggesting consumers may hoard their savings and resist spending amid these uncertain times.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Fed May Cut Rates Again as Policymakers Meet

This from Investment U:

Under the Obama administration, I expect there to be many profitable energy investment opportunities under what will likely be a very “green-friendly” four- or possibly eight-year timeframe. Many of the opportunities will arise from his focus on energy independence and corresponding energy infrastructure.

Reducing energy bills means ultimately reducing demand and controlling its costs. Weaning the country off fossil fuels won’t happen overnight. After all, it took us over 100 years to get to where we are.

But Obama recognizes we need to get started now. His plan has several strategies that help reduce our need for fossil fuels while alternative solutions are developed. And we’ve found three companies that are perfectly positioned to help the United States “bridge” the gap.

The United States’ Energy Investment Opportunities

A quick, cheap and easy strategy to increase efficiency is simply to save energy. And one of the best solutions is to weatherize older homes. While homes built in the last few years are far more efficient than those built even 10 years ago, many older residences are huge energy thieves.

Since 1976, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) has provided help to 5.6 million low-income families – enabling them to permanently reduce their energy bills. But help doesn’t come in the form of a check, which might be misused. It contracts for weatherization services on the homeowner’s residence.

Upgrading or replacing a home’s old furnace, sealing leaky heating ducts, fixing or replacing leaky windows and adding insulation reduces the average home’s heating bill by anywhere from 20% to 40%, and results in an overall annual savings of $358 at today’s energy prices. Replace old appliances and change out incandescent bulbs for florescent ones – and the savings get even more impressive.

Obama plans to expand this program, as nearly 28 million U.S. homes remain eligible for assistance. His goal under the Energy for America plan is to weatherize an additional one million homes every year.

Of course, the largest energy user in the country is – you guessed it – the good old Federal Government, which spent a whopping $14.5 billion on energy use in fiscal 2008.

Obama plans to lead by example: All new Fed buildings will have a 40% increase in energy-efficiency within five years. The new administration wants all federal buildings carbon-neutral by 2025 and he ultimately expects to achieve a 15% overall reduction in government energy use in just six years (2015).

Weatherize your Portfolio: 3 Energy Investment Opportunities

When looking for ways to play the energy efficiency/savings angle, the field narrows, but below are three energy investment opportunities. Adversely affected by the general housing downturn, many companies that would be a consideration under Obama’s plan are off the table.

There are a few we can consider, however:

• Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (Nasdaq:APOG) designs, services, installs and sells glass walls and window systems that make up the outside skins and entrance areas of large commercial and institutional buildings. Through its subsidiaries, it’s engaged in the design and development of numerous glass products, services and systems. Apogee’s glass will be in high demand for weatherizing the nation’s windows.Earnings have held up remarkably well, particularly in the face of the housing slowdown. It’s had little real effect on the company since its exposed more to the commercial side of the building business. At current levels, the stock has a yield of around 6%.CEO Ron Huffer had these forward-looking observations in a recent press release: “We believe that our markets offer significant longer-term opportunities, due to the increasing importance of green building, a sector demanding energy-efficient products that we supply and the overall growth in the use of value-added products in commercial construction projects.”
• A good blue-chip play that stands to benefit as well is 3M Company (NYSE:MMM). 3M is a diversified technology company engaged in industrial products, transportation, and numerous other sectors. Its industrial products division makes hundreds of items for the construction industry like window and door materials, including adhesives, tapes, films and abrasives.
• And let’s not forget General Electric (NYSE:GE), perhaps the best, safest energy and infrastructure play in the world. It has exposure to nearly every area of engineering and manufacturing that we use to build and power our country. Infrastructure and green energy continue to be focal points as spending in these sectors could jump-start the global economy back to life. GE is better positioned than perhaps any other firm to profit from this spending influx. And at prices of around $13 a share, it’s a steal – especially when you consider its nearly 10% dividend yield.

As Obama’s New Energy for America plan comes up to speed, investors could see a huge slug of cash – perhaps as much as $1 trillion – being thrown at the energy and infrastructure sectors.

And stakes in the above mentioned companies will make sure you get in on the action.

Source: Energy Investment Opportunities: Why 28 Million Customers Need These Upgrades

Immersion develops haptic technologies that allow people to use touch to operate digital devices. Think the type of fancy touch-screen technology used by the much-hyped iPhone.

Paul says Immersion remains loaded with potential but remains still somewhat on the launchpad. But with three major set to toss the firm new business, Paul is bullish…

While Immersion has met its financial expectations, the mass adoption curve for its technology has been pushed out and has overlapped a point in time where high beta stocks have been stripped of premium valuations.

That said, we believe the underlying fundamentals remain intact and the stock is attractive here.

In case you don’t know about Immersion’s industry, the company is a market leader in the field of haptics – a technology that simplifies and enhances human interaction with everyday technology. The company holds hundreds of patents and provides products and patent licensing to some of the world’s biggest firms.

We’ve already seen the first wave of enthusiasm, as Immersion’s technology is incorporated in cutting-edge consumer electronics products like cellphones (Immersion’s patented VibTonz software is already in Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Samsung, and Motorola (NYSE: MOT) handsets) and Sony (NYSE:SNE) PlayStation video games.

However, the company’s smaller segments (mobility, gaming, and automotive) are enjoying faster growth at the moment and offer the most opportunity. And as this technology matures, it will filter into products with lower price points that have mass appeal. At that point, IMMR’s top line will have the potential to grow exponentially in line with unit shipments.

Medical Division Set To Spring Back To Life, While Other Segments Rise Rapidly

While the consumer products receive most of the attention, the bulk of Immersion’s revenue actually comes from medical training devices that help surgeons learn their craft.

That core business has slowed in the US recently, but a push to expand in Europe and Asia is likely to reaccelerate revenues from this segment later this year. And even as its Medical division has slowed, Immersion has managed to offset that through rapid growth in newer areas.

For example, strength in the Mobility (NADAQ:USMO) division saw sales shoot up by ten times during the most recent quarter and now accounts for 13% of revenues. And looking ahead to the remainder of 2008, there is plenty to be excited about…

The Buyer’s Favorite Word

Right off the bat, three major industries are set to toss more business Immersion’s way:

1. Auto: BMW (FRA:BMW) is expanding the use of iDrive into its 3-series models.
2. Telecom: Samsung and LG are shipping handsets that leverage haptics and Nokia is expected to follow later this year.
3. Gaming: 3M (NYSE:MMM) is producing casino gaming screens, which could offer upside over the second half of 2008.

That’s the business end. But what about the stock’s valuation?

In a word: Cheap.

While the concept of buying low and selling high is a mainstay of investing, every now and again, this simple concept temporarily eludes investors.

That explains why Immersion trades for less than two times its net cash. In the software industry, buying a profitable company at that price is relatively unheard of. But at a time when fear is rampant, you occasionally get the opportunity to snag a bargain.

In Immersion’s case, it boasts $4.52 in net cash per share. This is in cash equivalents that could be quickly liquidated if a majority holder were to buy the company.

This basically means that if a third party such as Sony or Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) were to buy the company, it would be getting the operating business and patent portfolio for $2.30 per share (assuming a $6.82 share price). When stocks get to these levels, it becomes cheaper for a partner to acquire the firm than pay royalties for the licenses.

The Big Boys Bailed Out… But Are Now Getting Back In

Unless you took a vacation from the planet over the first three months of the year, you’ll probably know that it represented the worst start to the year for the stock market, as gridlock in the credit markets plunged financial institutions into dire straits.

That goes some way to explaining the unusual selling pressure that Immersion endured during the first quarter.

For example, Immersion’s largest holder, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), all but liquidated its position over that period. Goldman sold 78% of its 3.1 million share position and if you assume that the firm sold those evenly throughout the quarter (a measured program of selling, rather than panic), it accounted for 5% of the daily volume each day. This represents a significant hurdle for a stock to overcome in a stable market, let alone a panic situation.

Since then, however, big institutions have ramped up their buying of Immersion shares. Two large shareholders have stepped up big-time, with Balyasny beefing up the size of its position by 131%, while Immersion’s largest current shareholder, Mazama, has bought 23% more stock.

This represents a strong vote of confidence from institutions that are intimate with Immersion’s story and have combined to own 15% of the shares outstanding.

Here’s The Skinny On Immersion’s Plan To Fatten Up

To sum up, Immersion has its finger on several different developing markets that have the ability to dramatically increase its growth. If one of them catches fire, investors will benefit from accelerating profit growth and multiple expansion. Additionally, Immersion remains a buyout candidate for the likes of Sony or Samsung and a precedent was set earlier this year when Nokia acquired Navteq (NYSE:NVT).

The downside scenario would be if Immersion’s share price stagnates at current levels. That could happen if increasing pressure on consumer spending delays the adoption of devices using haptics. However, the low valuation would likely still provide support for the stock and you’d merely sacrifice opportunity, which is much better than sacrificing investment capital.

Source: Immersion Is ‘Force-Feeding’ Its Way Towards Solid Growth

That warrants some attention.

Why Conglomerates?

One of the best protections for an investment portfolio during times of volatility is diversification. And while one way to diversify a portfolio is to buy several different stocks in various industries, it’s possible to get diversification with just one pick – if you make it a smart one.

Conglomerates are diversified by their very nature because they hold several different business lines within varying industries. If one subsidiary is suffering a slowdown due to market conditions, another might be doing well enough to pick up the slack. By the same token, cash flows from one enterprise could be used to help a struggling operation or finance the purchasing of a new acquisition.

But a sprawling conglomerate can have its disadvantages, too. Peter Lynch, the well-known Wall St. investor, has even coined the term “diworsification” to describe a firm that ventures too far outside of its core competencies.

In fact, a conglomerate’s value often is less than the sum of its parts considered individually. The investment term for the difference is the conglomerate discount. The discount exists because a conglomerate’s network of varying subsidiaries can be difficult to manage and it doesn’t always result in cost efficiencies.

While an unwieldy conglomerate can be a recipe for disaster, one of the shrewdest investment managers in the world has demonstrated that a conglomerate can be the pathway to profits.

The Crown Prince of Conglomerates

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B) is one of the best modern examples of a well-run conglomerate. When Buffett acquired the then struggling firm in the early 60s, it was a textile manufacturing company.

But now, according to Wikipedia, Berkshire owns such diverse holdings of businesses including candy production, retail, home furnishings, encyclopedias, vacuum cleaners, jewelry sales, newspaper publishing, manufacture and distribution of uniforms, and footwear manufacturing and distribution.

And that’s in addition to the insurance businesses that Berkshire is perhaps best known.

For investors who want to buy a piece of Berkshire, the bar has been set high. Buffett has never allowed a split of the stock, resulting in Class A shares that have traded as high as $151,650.00 per share in the past year. Even the Class B shares, at 1/30th the value, have traded in a range of $3,538 to $5,059 in the past 52 weeks.

If you’re not going to buy Berkshire stock, it still makes sense to pay attention to the conglomerate’s investing moves. According to a recent study, buying what Buffett has bought – even a month after his purchases – is a pathway to superior returns. In fact, over the past three years, this strategy has delivered double the return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to research by professors at both American University and the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.

Even with that one-month lag, an investor who mimicked the moves of this market master would eclipse the S&P 500 returns by 14.26%, the study concluded. [Money Morning has an in-depth investment research report on this topic, How Buying Like Warren Buffett Can Boost Your Portfolio Profits. The report is free of charge.]

Recent Berkshire investments include taking an 8.6% stake in Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), making it the food maker’s biggest shareholder. Berkshire also acquired a $76.1 million stake in GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK), Europe’s largest drug maker.

Another Great Conglomerate Example in GE

If you’re looking for a successful conglomerate an investor-friendly share price, look no further than General Electric Co. (GE). The global titan has a presence in over 100 countries and offers a range of products that includes aircraft engines, power generation, water processing and security technology to medical imaging, business and consumer financing, media content and industrial products.

The stock is only up about 2.5% year-to-date, but when you compare that to almost 7% beating the S&P 500 Index has taken, that doesn’t seem so bad. Plus, GE shares offer an attractive 31-cent quarterly dividend.

Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a big fan of income generating stocks, especially during down markets.

GE has its fingers in a lot of pies, many of which will prove to be lucrative over the next several years as the global markets fuel infrastructure development in emerging markets. For the first time, overseas growth and revenue comprised more than half of GE’s fourth-quarter earnings.

The surge of international sales growth in the fourth quarter was fueled by GE’s infrastructure divisions, which accounted for 26% of profit growth. Total orders were up 18% to $27 billion.

GE Chairman and Chief Jeff Immelt said in a statement that the company is built to outperform in an otherwise stagnate U.S. market.

“Our record performance in such a tough environment validates the strength of our strategy and the talent of our team,” he said.

The Conglomerate that Brought You Post-Its

3M Company (MMM) is probably best known for its ubiquitous yellow sticky notes, but the diversified technology company has a wide-range of products. The firm has six business segments that include: Industrial and Transportation; Health Care; Display and Graphics; Consumer and Office; Safety, Security and Protection Services, and Electro Communications.

Since the company’s founding in 1902, 3M has found ways to innovate and turn initial failures into newfound successes. The firm has many well-known brands including Post-its, Scotch-Brite, Scotchgard, and of course, Scotch cellophane tape.

For 2007, 3M reported a 7% increase in sales to a record $24.5 billion. Excluding special one-time charges, full-year 2007 earnings were $4.98 per share, an increase of 11% over the prior year.

“We made good progress on our growth plan in 2007 and we will continue this effort in 2008. By investing in our many enduring franchises, strategic acquisitions and new plants to streamline our supply chain, we are securing 3M’s future as a faster-growing and more efficient enterprise,” George W. Buckley, 3M chairman, president and CEO, said in the company’s 2007 sales and earnings statement.

Shares have been trading in a range of $72.05 to $97.00 in the past 52 weeks and are down about 4% year to date. But over the past five years, 3M shares are up 24%.  And the stock offers a nice 50-cent quarterly dividend.

A Conglomerate that’s Cashing in on Crops

Fueled by a combination of international sales and a growing demand for genetically enhanced agricultural products, Wilmington, Del.-based E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. – commonly known as DuPont (DD) – has emerged as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomy U.S. stock market.

DuPont – a component of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average – does business in more than 70 countries where the blue-chip company’s array of agricultural offerings is a strong seller. DuPont is a leading developer of crop-protection chemicals and seed hybrids.

Emerging middle classes in China, India and elsewhere are driving the need for commodities. As more people incorporate meat and dairy products into their daily diets, supplies of “double-duty crops” – capable of feeding both livestock and people – continue to fall short of global demand. Drought and floods have also done their part to reduce crop yields, but DuPont is doing its part to try to boost those yields.

“We expect that continued growth worldwide from our Agriculture & Nutrition business segment and growth from all of our segments in emerging markets will more than compensate for a slower U.S. economy,” Charles O. Holliday, Jr., DuPont chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Earlier this year, the firm received approval for two new herbicides that are designed to protect soybeans and wheat. In addition, farmers using DuPont’s Pioneer brand seed hybrids won top honors in national crop-yield contests for corn and sorghum last year.

DuPont announced that it expects full-year 2007 earnings to be at the high-end of its previously projected range of $3.15 to $3.20 per share. The science-focused conglomerate also boosted its 2008 earnings guidance to $3.35 to $3.55 per share.

Well-Positioned for the Long-Term, Even in a Recession

With a strong portfolio of well-run diversified subsidiaries, strong global presences, comfortable capital positions and AAA credit ratings, both Berkshire and GE are in better positions than most firms to weather an economic storm.

“Considering both their strong credit ratings and their track record for making good investments, I believe that both GE and BRK provide interesting investment opportunities,” said Seeking Alpha’s Dan Braem, who is long on both stocks.

While there might be some short-term volatility in share prices, Braem believes both are good picks for an investor with a time horizon of over two years.
A recent study by global consulting firm, Marakon Associates, placed Berkshire Hathaway and GE in the top quartile of best-performing global conglomerates (3M was in the second).

The study tested the generalization that conglomerates “risk-spreading qualities are of no value to investors who can diversify their own portfolios and because they suffer from intrinsic structural and managerial weaknesses.” The authors, Chris Kaye and Jeffrey Yuwono, found that while that may hold true for some conglomerates, it’s not true for all.

“The high-performing conglomerates have solved this problem by committing themselves to financial discipline rather than operating or strategic visions,” the report concluded.