We are sitting here this morning, in our office, looking at a fat woman – stark naked – sleeping on a couch.

Of course, how rich people spend their money has always been a source of interest and entertainment. That an apparently sane and sensible man like Roman Abramovich spent $33,641,000 for the painting of the “Benefits Supervisor Sleeping,” must also be a comfort to the poor. At least, they don’t have to look at it.

But the world of money is a world of wonder…today, as everyday. We could begin today’s reckoning wondering why the rich are so eager to part with their money, for example…or why the poor are so eager to have it; they can see that it clearly impairs one’s judgment and degrades ones tastes.

Instead, we will wonder why those who constantly praise the virtues of capitalism seem to have so little faith in it.

What brings this wonder to mind is the latest legislation to clear the Senate Finance Committee. Congress is preparing to improve the way capitalism functions, by authorizing the Federal Housing Administration (itself an improvement of an earlier Congress) to insure $300 billion worth of home mortgages. Up until now, federal housing agencies could work all sorts of mischief; you could argue that without the implicit guarantees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or the explicit efforts of these quasi-public companies to create a huge market for derivatives based on mortgage finance, the whole housing bubble would never have occurred in the first place. Now – if this legislation becomes law, that is – new mischief is about to appear on the scene. The FHA will be empowered to help patch up America’s housing bubble.

The goal, said Senator Chris Dodd, is to keep people in their homes. He did not mention that these are the same homes whose owners demonstrably cannot afford them. Nor was he especially concerned that his meddling with the corrective machinery of capitalism was likely to throw a monkey wrench into the gears. Instead, like God on the 6th day of creation, he looked upon his handiwork and thought it was pretty good.

Everyone is perfectly happy to let capitalism do its stuff – as long as they like the results. But cometh a correction and all of a sudden the press is full of whining pundits and meddling politicians. Every correction brings forth new improvements until there are so many of them the system collapses under the weight. That why we have revolutions and bankruptcies, after all, to blow away the accumulated impediments.

And that is why the emerging markets have such an advantage. In many ways, people swing their arms and their hammers more freely in, say, Russia or China than they do in the United States of America or Britain – simply because there is nothing to stop them. These countries have already had their moments of violent desperation…their bankruptcies…and their revolutions. Both tossed out their entire economic systems in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. They’ve been rebuilding – fast – ever since. The leeches haven’t had a chance to get their suckers attached.

America’s war against Iraq had its roots in many improving impulses. According to John McCain and Alan Greenspan, however, the taproot sank into Iraq’s oil fields; America wanted to secure its access to cheap oil, they say. Unfortunately, this program – like all government meddling – backfired. The price of oil was only $25 a barrel when the war began in September of 2003. Yesterday, it hit $130 a barrel. And the war itself is expected to cost the nation $1 trillion or more. For all its efforts, the US secured the most expensive energy in world history. (And then pushed food prices up to their highest levels in modern times too – keep reading…)

China, meanwhile, decided to take the capitalist road. Instead, of using military force to get oil, it simply bought it on the open market. It has sent its agents to secure, peacefully and honestly, long-term contracts for oil and the other natural resources it needs to feed its ravenous economy. Its buying is driving up prices for everything. But what would you expect?

Meanwhile, having completely failed in the Mideast, America’s improvers turned to the Midwest. Yes, dear reader, if we can’t get oil from the sands of the Gulf and Mesopotamia, we will squeeze it out of our own farmland. At least, that was the promise of the program to subsidize the production of ethanol. Capitalism could not be relied upon to fill America’s energy needs, said the kibitzers.

Capitalism had already pronounced its verdict on corn-based fuel: it was a bad idea. Later, environmentalists came to the same conclusion; it actually caused more damage than petroleum. But the US Congress, in its majestic wisdom, saw something in ethanol that capitalists and environmentalists had missed – campaign contributions and votes!

And so it came to be that a large portion of the US corn crop is diverted into fuel tanks. And so it comes to be that a large number of the world’s people – including Americans themselves – find their food much more expensive than it used to be.

And more thoughts…

*** In Haiti, people are eating mud.

We’re not making this up. There’s a photo of a miserable woman making mud cakes in Port-au-Prince, in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph newspaper.

For the benefit of readers who wish to cut their food budgets, the Telegraph gives us the recipe: you simply mix clay with salt and vegetable fat and lay it out in the sun to cook – like mud pies. Then, you call them “biscuits.”

Last time we looked, mud was not one of the main food groups recommended by dieticians. But all over the world, poor people have to make do with what they can find. Rice is the staple food in Haiti, and it’s trebled in price in the last year, says the Telegraph. Other grains are not far behind. Since January of 2007, wheat has gone up 200% and corn 150%.

Desperate poor have already rioted in 34 countries this year. The ghost of Thomas Malthus, if he bothers to read the paper, must be saying “I told you so.” Malthus predicted that population would grow faster than food supplies. Millions of people would starve, he predicted. Now, it looks like he might have been too optimistic. He died in 1834. Since then, a series of happy events and technological developments greatly increased the supply of food…while war and family planning reduced the number of mouths to be fed. Now, it appears that the gains from mechanization, bio-engineering, chemistry and land clearing may have reached their limits. We may soon reach “Peak Food”…the point at which the world can produce no more food. But the human population – especially the part of it that doesn’t eat at the Tour d’Argent in Paris – keeps growing. Experts predict that the world’s population will grow by 3 billion people over the next 40 years – a 50% increase. Where will the world get 50% more food? At what price? Who knows…but one thing is sure: there will be plenty of opportunities for the world-improvers to make things worse.

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well… My first day at the Las Vegas Money Show went well. This place (Mandalay Bay) is so big and spread out; there’s just too much walking for me. My presentation went well, I think; it’s just too difficult to tell anymore for me.

Front and center this morning we have the government telling us that inflation was less than forecast last month. Just who do they think they’re kidding here? I didn’t just fall off the turnip truck! CPI rose 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, putting the annual rate at 3.9% versus the previous 4.0%… Just doesn’t sit well with you does it? Oh well… We carry on despite the dolts we have to work with!

Another piece of data already out this morning has foreclosures in the United States climbing 65% in April, and bank seizures more than doubling in the same period. RealtyTrac Inc. said this morning that there are more than 243,300 properties, or one in every 519 households, that were in some stage of foreclosure, which happens to be the highest monthly total since they began to keep the data!

Oh, but don’t worry about all of this folks… Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke says the worst of over! And before I get away from all this, Freddie Mac, the second largest mortgage finance company, posted a $151 million first quarter loss… And… I would bet they “fudged” the numbers to make them look “this good”!

I shake my head in disgust of the stuff we have to deal with… The lies, the cooked books… UGH!

Alright, I’m back now… I was away for a minute to yell at the walls!

The softer inflation data this morning is allowing the euro (EUR) to gain some ground versus the dollar, as the market puts the Fed warnings of rising inflation and eventual rate hikes in the United States on the back burner.

Yesterday, we saw the euro lose a little ground after Fed Head Janet Yellen was wishing, and hoping and thinking and praying that the economy would be strong enough to raise rates. Oh give me a break! She’s grasping at straws! Yellen stated that she “would be pleased” if the economy was strong enough to raise rates by year-end. That’s all nice and sweet, Ms. Yellen… But did you realize you would move the markets with that “wish upon a star”?

Our friend, Jim Rogers, is back in the news today talking about the dollar rally. Let’s listen in…

“The dollar is going up, which is useful for people who want to sell the dollar down the road. With things the way they are, I would rather buy the Swiss franc and Asian currencies.”

Jim Rogers was also of the thought that carry trades are going to be reduced…

I’m all about this, and agree with our friend… This is the stuff I pound out on the keyboard almost every day. The carry trade is a “risky trade”, and when risk enters the markets in a big way, like I believe it will this year, the carry trade will be unwound, thus benefiting Swiss francs (CHF) and the low yielding Asian currencies.

Last week I told you about the Chinese renminbi (CNY) and how it had stalled at 6.98. There was a report this morning that Central Bank Governor Zhou signaled that slowing exports would see an easing in the pace of renminbi gains. If you recall that talk last week that I gave, this is what I was talking about… Slowing gains in the renminbi, (as if they weren’t slow enough already!)

The Canadian loonie (CAD) is knocking on the door to parity with the dollar again this morning, as it swaps places with the Swiss franc, which was at parity last month but has fallen back.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is getting sold again. This is a back and forth tug-o-war with yen… But in the long run, I still see yen gaining versus the dollar… But we’ve got to get that stupid carry trade off the books first!

One currency that has remained pretty “steady Eddie” during this recent dollar strength is the Brazilian real (BRL)… Of course I just put the “Chuck’s kiss-o-death” on the real… Anyway… I was talking to a customer yesterday here at the show, and listed the positive balance of payment currencies from Norway (NOK), Sweden (SEK), Switzerland, euro, Japan, and Singapore (SGD) as currencies an investor should look to. But added that Brazil and Australia (AUD) have the “things” the world needs, and should keep these currencies underpinned…

Currencies today 5/14/08: A$ .9350, kiwi .7630, C$ .9995, euro 1.5470, sterling 1.9445, Swiss .9485, ISK 79, rand 7.6550, krone 5.07, SEK 6.0150, forint 161.50, zloty 2.1920, koruna 16.15, yen 105, baht 32.40, sing 1.38, HKD 7.8, INR 42.45, China 7, pesos 10.50, BRL 1.6665, dollar index 73.31, Oil $125.37, Silver $16.89, and Gold… $870.20

That’s it for today… The BIG GUYS from Jacksonville were in town and came to my presentation yesterday. That was pretty exciting for yours truly. Since I got sick last summer, I haven’t had much opportunity to be around the Big Guys from Jacksonville (the home office), and just talk to them, etc. So, that was good… We also have two of our NY Operations people here with us at the show… Rachel and Tom are doing great! And Kathy from Jacksonville is also here, so we’ve got plenty of help. I go back to the days when it would just be Chris Gaffney and I all day at the booth… Chris is on his way to Panama this morning… Better him than me, that’s all I can say! I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday!

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Source: More Bad Data for the U.S. Economy