With vacation season ending in the Northern Hemisphere, we’ll start to see analysis rooted in experience and common sense driving stock prices. Through much of the summer, trading has been dominated by “quant” funds that are prone to “garbage in, garbage out” decision systems. You can see it in the tick-by-tick movements and in Level 2 quotes. These quant funds typically use backward-looking data on the U.S. economy to drive trading decisions, rather than assess how the outlook for the global economy has changed in the wake of last fall’s panic.

Having last month addressed concerns about inflation by outlining a stimulus “exit strategy,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may turn his attention to the growing threat posed by commercial real estate at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) two-day meeting taking place tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday.