Ad revenues in the newspaper industry plunged 16.7% last year to $37.8 million r, according to the Newspaper Association of America (NAA). The 2009 take is estimated to fall another 17.3% to $31.6 billion according to Alan Mutter, a Silicon Valley executive who once lead the newsrooms of the Chicago Sun-Times and San Francisco Chronicle and now writes a blog titled “Reflections of a Newsosaur.”

Mutter’s estimate would put ad revenues at their lowest levels since 1965, when the industry took in $4.42 billion, or $30.22 billion when adjusted for inflation, the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) reported.

While the worst economic downturn since World War II has eviscerated the fortunes of print media companies like The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) and Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI), publishers will see secular decline in revenue even after the financial crisis subsides.

“Think, for instance, the classified ads business of newspapers, which has been walloped by eBay and craigslist (with a final indignity provided by the cyclical collapse of the housing bubble),” the CJR said. “Most of those revenues aren’t coming back. That’s a secular decline.”

The result of this decline means a “new reality” for publishers as they transition from the printed page to digital content. All the major publishers are online and have been for some time.

The New York Times’ Web site began in 1995, when the Internet was just starting to enter consumers’ homes. Ten years later in 2005, The Timestried its hand at a subscription-based model for its Web site, known as TimesSelect, a service that charged readers without subscriptions $50 a year for online access to editorial content.

According to The Times Co., TimesSelect had about 227,000 paying subscribers by August 2007. However, accessing the content for free were an additional 471,200 home delivery readers, as well as another 89,200 college students.

But the estimated 13 million readers who accessed the site that month, according to Nielsen/NetRatings reports, dwarfed those subscriber-users. The following month, the Times Co. gave up on TimesSelect and made the Web site free for all users in September 2007.

Since then, nytimes.com has soared to become the most visited newspaper site in the United States, with roughly 20 million unique visitors per month as of March. But The Times and other publishers are still trying to figure out how to generate revenue and turn a profit, especially now that the recession is cutting into advertisers’ budgets.

“As we continue our transition from a company focused primarily on print to one that is increasingly digital in focus and multiplatform delivery, online advertising revenues are a more important part of our mix,” said The Times Co. President and Chief Executive Officer Janet Robinson. “They made up 21% of our ad revenues in the quarter, up from 18% in the same period a year ago.”

Print and online ad revenue for U.S. newspaper publishers fell 29% in the second quarter from $9.6 billion to $6.82 billion, according to the NAA. Part of this stems from a cyclical decline in spending, while the rest comes from the “new reality” that people aren’t reading as many printed newspapers as they used to.

“This data represents a rearview mirror perspective on what we all know was a terrible stretch of bad road,” said NAA Chief Executive Officer John Sturm.

And the data comes even as online news audiences are growing: The latest data from the NAA shows online newspaper readership was 73.3 million users in the first quarter, a 10.5% increase from the 66.4 million the year before.

A Financial Fork in the Road

Publishers are hoping the decline in online ad spending is cyclical, but some aren’t waiting for the recovery to take advantage of the growing information-hungry audience and what they hope is an inevitable upswing in ad revenue.

News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWS) Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch has vowed to charge for all of the online content of his newspapers and television news channels, including The Wall Street Journal, the New York Post and Fox News.

Much of the content on The Journal’s Web site is available only through a paid subscription of $1.99 per week, and is one of the few newspapers to successfully charge for its content, in spite of a backdoor to view articles for free via Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular search engine.

“If successful, we’ll be followed by all media,” Murdoch told the Financial Times.

Murdock predicts “significant revenues” from charging for differentiated news online.

But differentiated news isn’t enough for people to pay for it, according to Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

“In general these models have not worked for general public consumption because there are enough free sources that the marginal value of paying is not justified based on the incremental value of quantity,” he said to a group of British broadcasting executives.

Murdoch is hoping The Journal’s online success will carry over to its mobile applications for devices like Research in Motion Ltd.’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry and Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone. His company will start charging consumers to read stories via those apps “in one to two months,” he told Reuters last week.

Several news outlets already have either ad-supported mobile news sites or device-specific applications. The Times and The Journal have the No. 2 and No. 5-most downloaded apps in Apple’s App Store for iPhone, respectively. NPR News is the most popular app.

A “Digital Vampire” Becomes a Partner to Some Publishers

Google News, which aggregates stories from the all over the Internet, currently generates ad revenue from news searches and doesn’t share any of it with the news sites – a business model that clearly doesn’t sit well with publishers.

Earlier this summer, Les Hinton, chief executive officer of Dow Jones and publisher of The Journal described Google as a “digital vampire.”

Speaking at the annual PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Entertainment and Media Outlook event, Hinton accused Google of “sucking the blood” out of the newspaper business, and vowed new developments would level the playing field.

“There is a charitable view of the history of Google,” Hinton said. “[It] didn’t actually begin life in a cave as a digital vampire per se.”

Instead, by offering content free on the Web, the newspaper industry “gave Google’s fangs a great place to bite,” he said. “We will never know what might have happened had newspapers taken a different approach.”

Now, Google is trying a new way to share its take and possibly change the way people read news on the Web with its “Fast Flip” experiment, unveiled last week.

The idea behind Fast Flip is to present newspaper and magazine Web sites like a print publication, and users can quickly “flip” top stories in a selected category or specific topic found via Google’s search.

Google will share revenue with publishers such as The Times. Co. and The Post Co., but specific percentages were not given.

“The publishing industry faces many challenges today, and there is no magic bullet,” said Google News researcher Krishna Bharat in a blog posting. “However, we believe that encouraging readers to read more news is a necessary part of the solution. We think Fast Flip could be one way to help, and we’re looking to find other ways to help as well in the near future.”

Source: ‘New Reality’ for Newspaper Publishers Forces Search for New Revenue Streams to Tap Into

Motorola’s stock is up nearly 12% since the announcement, as investors are hoping the new phone will be enough to win back some of the company’s lost market share.

However, saving Motorola’s mobile division – which the company plans to spin off – is a daunting task. The company – which invented the cell phone, as well as a plethora of other communication devices used by police and military – has seen its global market share of wireless phones fall to 2% in its second quarter this year from 31% in 1995. Mobile phone sales accounted for 33% of Motorola’s second-quarter revenue, down from 41% a year ago.

Motorola had enjoyed some success in 2004 when it released its popular Razr clamshell-style phone, which was viewed as a fashionable and useful high-tech gadget. During its four-year run, more than 110 million Razrs were sold.

However, Motorola failed to respond to innovation in the mobile phone market that was pioneered by its fiercest competitors. Apple and RIMM have whittled away at Motorola’s market share over the past five years.

With the Cliq, Motorola is trying to separate from the competition by angling its device toward a younger, less professional base. The Cliq’s biggest draw will be its quick access to social networking content from Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and News Corp.’s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace.

“Our initial take is favorable, and it seems that Motorola is carving out a niche in the crowded smartphone market by focusing on socially minded demographics as opposed to enterprise users or pro-sumers,” RBC Capital Markets Corp. analyst Mark Sue told Reuters. Sue upped his share target for Motorola from $8 to $10 a share.

Aside from that distinction, the Cliq includes features typically found in most any smartphone: A touch screen, slide-out keyboard, and access to an application store. It runs on Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android mobile operating system, already found on two other T-Mobile Phones.

However, if Motorola’s Android-based phones are going to take off, they’ll need bigger wireless carriers. The phones currently function on Deutsche Telecom AG’s (NYSE ADR: DT) T-Mobile USA Inc. network. But with just 34 million users, T-Mobile is the fourth-largest carrier in the United States.

For that reason, a second Android phone will be offered for Verizon Communications Inc.’s (NYSE: VZ) mobile network, which is nearly three times as large. Verizon Wireless has about 88 million subscribers and is the largest carrier in the United States.

Wall Street may be underestimating the boost in profit Motorola will get from its smartphone line in 2010, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) analyst Maynard Um said in a note to investors. Um has upgraded the communications firm’s stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Um attributed the upgrade to the expected holiday release of the Cliq, as well as additional deals with mobile carriers in the fourth quarter.

Pricing for the Cliq was not announced, but Um anticipates recession-friendly pricing.

“We do not expect new competitor handset announcements to have a materially negative sentiment impact on Motorola, as the company is not defending share, likely only has share upside, and is likely to be an aggressor on price,” he wrote.

A sizeable boost in profit could come from the Android phones’ access to the Android Market, Google’s application store. Apple’s App Store for its iPhone and iPod Touch devices have proven to be a boon for the company, with more than 1.8 billion paid and free apps downloaded since its debut in July 2008. While many of the apps, such as those from The New York Times are free, they present consumers a strong value proposition when buying a smartphone.

However, Apple’s App Store has more than 75,000 applications available, while Google’s Android Market offers just 10,000 apps.

Motorola will add more Android-based phones next year, Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Jha said at a conference last week in San Francisco, and Avian Securities LLC analyst Matt Thornton expects Android phones to represent 30% of the total handsets it sells in 2010, Bloomberg News reported.

“It’s the first step in a long journey,” said Jha, who insists the Cliq will not make or break his company.

In March 2008, Motorola to split its core business from its mobile division after pressure from billionaire investor Carl Ichan mounted. At the time, analysts said the split would put the company in a better position to sell assets or negotiate a joint venture.

A week later, Videocon Industries Ltd., the largest electronics maker in India, said it was interested in buying Motorola’s mobile business. However, neither a sale nor split of Motorola has happened.

Motorola shares closed at $8.79 in trading yesterday (Monday), up 11 cents or 1.27%.

Source: Hot Stocks: Motorola Throws Hat Into Smartphone Ring

Video rental king Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) years ago usurped Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI)’s throne as the No. 1 video rental outlet, but now it’s focused on cementing its status as the market leader as other video rental companies struggle to play catch-up.

Blockbuster, still king of brick-and-mortar rental stores, learned first hand the threat an innovative upstart can pose when it ran up against Netflix’s DVD-by-mail business model.

With movie theater tickets costing upwards of $10 (and that’s not including the popcorn or sodas), Netflix’s $8.99 1-DVD plan with unlimited exchanges and streaming video access represents a decidedly better deal for consumers that are tightening their spending amid rising unemployment and waning confidence.

Netflix celebrated its 10 millionth subscriber in February, noting that it added more than 600,000 net subscribers since the beginning of the year. In its second quarter ended June 30, Netflix said it had a total of 10.6 million subscribers, with paid subscribers representing 98% of the membership. The company expects its total membership to rise to between 11.6 million to 12 million by the end of the year, upping its previous quarter’s guidance of 11.2 million and 11.8 million.

Churn, a measurement of customer cancellations, rose to 4.5% in the second quarter from 4.2% a year ago, Netflix said.

“It could be the economy,” Netflix Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings said of increasing churn in an interview with The Motley Fool. “It could also be that we make it very easy for subscribers to put their accounts on hold if they go on vacation or don’t have enough money for a month or two. When a subscriber goes on hold, we count that as a cancellation. What you can look at – as a good stable indicator – are net additions. And net additions continue to grow.”

Netflix’s top and bottom lines continue to grow as well. Revenue grew to $408.5 million in the second quarter, up from $337.6 million in the same period a year ago. Profit grew to $32.4 million in the second quarter, up from last year’s $26.5 million.

As subscribers, sales and profit rise, so too does Netflix’s stock. Shares of Netflix have jumped more than 45% since the start of the year, and managed to sidestep the doldrums experienced by the markets in March.

Still, it’s no time for Netflix to rest on its laurels, lest it suffer the same fate as Blockbuster. That’s why CEO Hastings is quietly preparing for the death of DVDs themselves. Ultimately, consumers will one day dump the plastic discs in favor of movies delivered straight over the Internet, Hastings told The Wall Street Journal.

So Hastings, who is a self-proclaimed student of companies that stumble by failing to adapt to technology shifts, is quickly trying to shift Netflix’s business so that more videos are available online.

While Hastings is having success in getting Netflix instant video onto devices, the biggest challenge facing his company is convincing Hollywood executives to license their content. While 12,000 choices may seem like a lot, many are older AAA movies or TV shows, or newer movies that weren’t commercially successful. New releases of hit movies usually take months or even years to appear in Netflix’s streaming video catalog.

That’s because Netflix is competing with pay cable channels such as Time Warner Inc.’s (NYSE: TWX) HBO and Viacom Inc.’s (NYSE: VIA) Showtime, which gain exclusive rights to show movies and generally have larger audiences. To get the movies and TV shows consumers want, Netflix will have to boost its licensing spending from the roughly $100 million it spent last year, an anonymous source told The Journal.

“Netflix has yet to show that it has the resources and profitability to be in the markets where licensing is the business policy,” said Warren Lieberfarb, former head of Time Warner’s Warner Bros. home video division.

The company has had some success in the licensing department earlier this year when it inked a deal with Liberty Media Corp. (Nasdaq: LMDIA) to show movies from its Starz pay cable channel.

Netflix’s library of 100,000-plus DVD titles is made possible by the “first-sale doctrine” of U.S. copyright law, which allows buyers of DVDs to lend them out without the consent of studios.

Too Little, Too Late?

It’s difficult to say when Blockbuster’s fall from grace began, but it was somewhere between its well-publicized late fee fiasco and the proliferation of Netflix.

Blockbuster’s operating income at the end of its second quarter in 2004 was $105.3 million. That was just before Netflix entered mainstream consumer consciousness. Blockbuster’s operating income at the end of its second quarter this year was a loss of $1.5 million.

In spite-of an 8.3% industry-wide increase in rental revenue, Blockbuster’s revenue fell 13.3%.

The company blamed the drop partly on reduced inventory as it tries to generate more cash to handle its debt load, the Los Angeles Timesreported.  Although Chief Executive Officer Jim Keyes told analysts in a conference call a renegotiation of a revolving line of credit meant stores would be fully stocked and more aggressively marketed, he admitted last week that didn’t happen.

“Temporarily during the first and second quarter, we put our plans for increased availability on hold,” Keyes said on the call. “We made this change with the recognition that we were also facing new and very aggressive competition who are better capitalized and would likely take share from us as we pulled back.”

Still, Blockbuster is doing everything it can to stay afloat, from closing stores to kiosk deployment.

“We’re deploying as many as 10,000 vending machines by the middle of next year,” Keyes told Bloomberg News in a telephone interview, adding that his company is focused on increasing cash flow rather than boosting sales in a “very challenging credit market.”

Blockbuster’s $250 million revolving line of credit is due on Sept. 30, 2010, and the company has more than $350 million of long-term debt outstanding that it must pay by the end of next year, according to a research note written by Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc. analyst Michael Pachter. Blockbuster had $99 million in cash and equivalents as of July 5, down 36% from $154.9 million on January 4, Pachter said.

“[Blockbuster needs] the credit markets to loosen up and they need to refinance,” Pachter told Bloomberg. “They’re not on track to repay this debt in the time frame they need to, so they’ve got to extend the terms.”

Pachter downgraded his rating on Blockbuster stock from “outperform” to “hold” last week. Blockbuster shares have tumbled more than 44% since the start of the year.

The Little Red Box That Could

Blockbuster was effectively rendered obsolete by Netflix’s quick response to changing technology. But Coinstar Inc.’s (Nasdaq: CSTR) Redbox Automated Retail LLC, which offers consumers new release DVDs for $1 per night, is hoping to avoid a similar fate.

Kiosk vendor Redbox, initially funded by McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Coinstar in 2002, saw Coinstar acquire its remaining shares in February. The company’s $1-a-night DVD rentals are found in places like McDonalds restaurants, grocery stores, and numerous locations owned by retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) that that serve at least 15,000 customers a week.

Redbox plans on having 21,000 to 22,000 kiosks throughout the United States by January, up from 13,700 a year earlier. The company’s sales, which were $188.9 million in the second quarter, account for 57% of Coinstar’s overall sales, up from 41% in the same quarter last year. Coinstar’s stock has risen more than 62% since the beginning of the year.

At a time when consumers are strapped, Redbox is perfectly positioned for those looking to save money. But now Hollywood is looking to stunt Redbox’s growth.

Tinseltown accuses Redbox of depressing DVD prices and depriving studios of the same revenue-sharing opportunities they now enjoy with traditional DVD rental houses such as Blockbuster, Reuters reported.

Three studios – News Corp.’s (Nasdaq: NWS) 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, Warner Bros. and General Electric Co.’s (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal – are vowing to withhold their DVD distribution to kiosks like Redbox until 28 days after they are released.

To counter, Redbox has filed a lawsuit against at least one of the studios, 20th Century Fox.

“At the expense of consumers, 20th Century Fox is attempting to prohibit timely consumer access to its new release DVDs at Redbox retail locations nationwide,” said President Mitch Lowe. “Despite this attempt, Redbox will continue to provide our consumers access to all major new releases including 20th Century Fox titles at our more than 15,000Redbox DVD rental locations.”

Speaking to the LA Times, Lowe said Redbox isn’t a threat to Hollywood, but instead an additional source of income. However, Papi Capital analyst Richard Greenfield disagrees, writing that Redbox’s pricing is a “substantial risk” to the movie industry.

“It sets an ultra-low price point for movie content that will impact consumers’ decision-making process about all forms of movie-related commerce – theater-going, DVD purchase, video-on-demand,” Greenfield wrote.

Of course, distribution withholding and lawsuits aside, if Netflix’s Hastings is right and DVDs do walk the path of oblivion like CDs are now, Redbox will need to adapt and find a way to enter the already-crowded Internet video market.

Source: Hot Stocks: Netflix Finds Success in Innovation, While Other Video Rental Companies Fight For Survival ]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/hot-stocks-netflix-finds-success-in-innovation-while-other-video-rental-companies-fight-for-survival/19974/feed 1 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/investment-news-briefs-wednesday-june-24-2009/18282 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/investment-news-briefs-wednesday-june-24-2009/18282#comments Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:00:17 +0000 Money Morning Staff http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=18282 Existing Home Sales Rise, But Miss Estimates; Boeing Shares Plummet; Automakers Get $8 Billion for Fuel Efficiency; Sprint CFO Not Concerned About Pre Shortages; Kroger Beats the Street; MySpace Lays Off 300 More; Best Buy Testing Used Game Waters; Madoff’s Lawyer Pleads for Leniency

BRIC Building; Bankruptcies Accelerate; Auto Parts Suppliers Denied Additional Government Funds; GM Sells Saab; Best Buy Misses Expectations; MySpace Cuts 1,000 Workers; Banks See Recession Ending in Late Summer

• Members of the so-called “BRIC” nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China – met in Russia yesterday (Tuesday) for their first ever summit. The meeting was followed by the release of a joint communiqué that demanded a larger role for emerging nations. “The emerging and developing economies must have a greater voice and representation in international financial institutions,” the statement said. “We also believe that there is a strong need for a stable, predictable and more diversified international monetary system.” However, the statement did not mention a smaller role for the dollar and a supranational reserve currency, suggestions previously proposed by Russia and China as a result of the financial tidal wave that emanated from the United States.

Source: Investment News Briefs Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, said yesterday that the stimulus package represents “a shift long advocated by analysts of the Chinese economy and by some within the government. It comes amid indications that economic growth, exports and various industries are slowing.”

The decision was announced yesterday by the State Council after Premier Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting Wednesday. China reported in late October that its economy grew at a less-than-expected rate of 9% in the third quarter – the fifth straight quarter than growth has slowed, MarketWatch.com reported.

“As the global outlook deteriorates, we expect Chinese macro policy to turn increasingly aggressive,” Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) economists T.J. Bond and Ting Lu wrote in a research report Friday. “This is a key theme for China and indeed, the entire Asian region.”

China becomes the latest major country to announce a stimulus package. Governments have been injecting billions of dollars into their economies, as central banks around the world slash interest rates, all in the hope of avoiding a whopper global recession. Just last week, researchers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that world growth would slow to a tepid 2.2% next year, down from the 3.7% growth estimated for this year. The IMF forecast for China slashed the growth rate down to 8.5% next year, down from an earlier projection of 9.3%.

Reports are circulating that the U.S. government may be considering another infusion of its own. The urgency could escalate this week after retailers take center stage and announce their third-quarter earnings. Macy’s Inc. (M), Nordstrom’s Inc. (JWN), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) all are expected to announce quarterly results.

The retail sales data for October will be released on Friday, though the recent weak sales numbers and earnings announcements should have provided more than fair foreshadowing of the actual monthly results.

Given that consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy’s health, don’t anticipate great numbers. And don’t assume these are the worst we’ll see.

Market Matters

With traders predicting a victory by Democrat Barack Obama, the major markets jumped by more than 3% on election day and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a four-week high. International stocks also climbed in anticipation of real “change” coming to the White House.

The euphoria was short-lived, however, as the economic realities returned “the morning after.”  Domestic indexes plunged 10% over the next two sessions in volatile trading.  Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Time Warner Inc. (TWX), and News Corp. (NWS) became the latest companies to disappoint on quarterly earnings.  Likewise, General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) announced larger than expected losses and dismal sales results for October as execs presented a dire picture of the entire industry.  Circuit City Stores Inc. (CC) started closing stores; Goldman Sachs Group (GS) began handing out pink slips; JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) announced plans to modify mortgage loans for delinquent borrowers.

Weak economic releases (see below) prompted oil prices to plummet again on enhanced recession concerns; the price of gasoline pushed below $2.40 per gallon – reaching its lowest level since early 2007.  For now, inflation does not appear to be a problem.  As for the President-elect, no one ever said it would be easy.  (Then again, optimists note, many of the same fears we face now were present back in 1992 when a relatively unknown Democratic president was elected and his party also controlled Congress. The Dow soared more than 200% during the President Bill Clinton years, the strongest performance in the post-World War II era. We also ended with a budget surplus – but that, at least, may be too much to ask for).

Weekly Market Data

Economic Matters

A hectic week on the economic calendar unfortunately brought little for investors (and the President-elect) to cheer about. The manufacturing sector appears to be in far worse shape than previously thought as the ISM index plunged to its lowest level in 26 years.  Two days later, that same Institute for Supply Management reported that the services sector was weakening, as well. Retailers remained very apprehensive about the holidays and the poorest October sales results since 1969 did nothing to relieve those fears.  JC Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) and Nordstrom’s reduced their earnings projections and only discounter Wal-Mart seemed to benefit from the uncertain times.

As for the highly anticipated unemployment releases, we found that during the month of October, the country shed another 240,000 jobs, its tenth straight month of labor contraction, bringing the year-to-date total losses to 1.2 million. Even worse, the losses appear to be accelerating.

Last month’s unemployment rate skyrocketed to 6.5% (from 6.1% in September) and now stands at its highest level since March 1994. Additionally, recruiting firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported soaring layoffs (+79%) over the past 12-months, and payroll provider Automated Data Processing (ADP) revealed that the private sector suffered its largest monthly job contraction since December 2001. The dismal labor picture all but confirms a second consecutive quarter of negative growth (GDP), which translates into full-fledged recession. When individuals worry about their jobs, they don’t spend. Retailers suffer, manufacturers suffer, and the overall economy suffers.

We’re already seeing all of this – and there’s more to come.

Overseas, the world’s Central Banks followed in the Federal Reserves’ footsteps by dropping their key lending rates in attempts to jumpstart their respective economies. As Money Morning reported, the ECB (European Central Bank) cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 3.25%, while the Bank of England took surprising action by reducing its rate by one-and-a-half percentage points to take it down to 3.0% – an attempt at countering the impact of its rapidly falling housing prices and the ongoing credit crisis.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: China Stimulus, Troublesome Retail Earnings Point to Escalating Global Economic Woes

• Siemens AG (SI) put aside nearly $1.3 billion to settle charges that it bribed government officials around the world to win contracts. The concessionary provision will affect earnings for the year ended Sept. 30, Bloomberg reported.

• Internet titan Google Inc. (GOOG) announced Wednesday (yesterday) that its wariness for antitrust-related legal battles ultimately killed discussions with Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) about forming an advertising partnership, the New York Times reported. The breakdown reopens the door for a possible Yahoo-Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) relationship, which also has its share of starts and stops.

• Enbridge Inc. (ENB) announced quarterly profits rose 88% and net income spiked $130.4 million, or 41 cents a share, for the third quarter, Bloomberg reported. Canada’s largest pipeline company said volume increased 33% on the Athabasca liquid pipeline system, a major artery into one of the world’s most oil rich fields.

• The FCC voted 5-0 in approval of Sprint Nextel Corp’s (S) June purchase of Clearwire Corp., MarketWatch reported. The merger is critical to the survival of both, as they claimed to be unable to build a mobile wireless Internet network that could compete with rival AT&T (T).

• GMAC Financial Services, a division of General Motors Corp. (GM) said yesterday (Wednesday) that its third-quarter loss widened to $2.52 billion. GMAC had a loss of $1.6 billion during the year-earlier period. Third-quarter revenue fell 24% to $1.72 billion from $2.25 billion. GM reports earnings tomorrow (Friday).

• Time Warner Inc. (TWX) reported net income of $1.07 billion, or 30 cents a share, for the three months ended Sept. 30. Revenue was at $11.71 billion, relatively unchanged from last year’s  $11.68 billion. The company reported 18% growth in profits from continuing operations.

• Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) yesterday (Wednesday) announced a 28% increase in third-quarter profit. The company reported third quarter net income of $173.2 million, or 94 cents per share, up from $134.7 million, or 74 cents per share, a year ago.

• News Corp. (NWS) said yesterday (Wednesday) that first-quarter net income dropped 30% from a year ago. Net income fell to $515 million, or 20 cents per share, compared with $732 million, or 23 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose 6.3% to $7.5 billion.

Source:Global Investing Roundups Thursday, November 6th, 2008

About 17 million viewers joined India’s burgeoning television market in the first half of 2008. Television advertising responded to the broader audience, growing 26% in the first six months of the year.

The media and entertainment market in India is expected to grow by 18.5% by 2012, according to consultancy firm PwC. That’s the fastest among the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), as China’s rate of growth over the next four years is projected at 14.6%.

Annual revenue for television in India is expected to double to $11.6 billion in that time, as well, according to Media Partners Asia.

“In the long term, the media and advertising outlook for Asia is tremendous as wealth is created and people get educated and you see the emergence of a wealthy middle class,” Reuters quoted Murdoch as saying earlier this week.

News Corp. aims to exploit that remarkable growth potential with a $100 million investment through Star India, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company. Star India broadcasts entertainment and music on channels such as Star One and Star Plus. It also has a 26% stake in Media Content & Communication Services India, an operator of three news channels.

The move could be a precursor to an expansion into India’s movie business as well. The Indian film industry, known as “Bollywood,” produces about 1,000 movies a year, making it one of the most prolific in the world. Warner Group (TWX), The Walt Disney Co. (DIS), Sony Pictures Entertainment (ADR: SNE), and Viacom Inc. (VIA) already have already undertaken joint ventures in India and News Corp.’s 20th Century Fox movie studios won’t want to stand on the sidelines much longer.

News Corp. also plans to nearly triple the size of its editorial staff at its Indian Dow Jones from 25 employees to 70, although government regulations make it difficult to do business, particularly in print.

“We don’t see ourselves taking a stake in print… because they are not available and because we won’t want to take just a 26% stake,” Murdoch said.

Foreign investment in news publishing and broadcasting is limited to 26% by the government.

Still, Murdoch remains positives about India’s prospects.

“We are happy here,” he said “The slower expansion of the economy may slow growth a bit, but in the long term there is a lot of growth to be had.”

Source:  News Corp. Expands Presence in India with $100 Million Investment

Thomson Reuters now estimates that second-quarter earnings declined by 11.1%, which is significantly worse than the projected 2% decline that was made back in April.

Of course, financials will lead the charge in terms of these dire expectations, followed closely behind by consumer discretionary (which reflects the lagging confidence measures). Technology is also expected to struggle; these days management must think long and hard about investing in any major systems upgrades.

But the real key to the stock market’s future may well lay with major multinationals. In recent quarters, many multinational companies – we often refer to them as “Global Titans” – have weathered the domestic storm. The reason: They’ve been able to generate substantial revenue and profits from continued growth in emerging markets and from the weak dollar (which increases demand for the “cheaper” U.S. goods). Unfortunately, this trend may be coming to an end as global inflation heats up and slower international growth means that multinationals may be losing their safety net.

Investors get a bit of a reprieve (and time to recover from second-quarter hangovers) as few economic releases of substance are on the calendar for the week ahead.

Market Matters

Good-bye and good riddance. That general sentiment was shared by investors and traders alike, as the second-quarter came to a close (and none too quickly). Many folks expected the market negativity to shift after a poor first quarter, since the U.S. Federal Reserve jumped in with both feet and attempted to end the credit crisis. Unfortunately, the past three months brought more of the same and the outlook for the remainder of the year does not look much stronger.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst 1st half of the year since 1970, while the bleak performances of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index brought back memories of the dot-com bubble collapse of 2001 and 2002.

Likewise, certain emerging markets (Shanghai and India) plunged in value, leaving equity investors few attractive options in the global marketplace.

Thus far, the new quarter brings a continuation of those same “tired” themes: Financials and energy. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) actually moved to the backburner as investors focused on European competitor UBS AG (ADR: UBS) and a Justice Department investigation into the potential tax fraud of several key clients. To date, the Swiss banking giant has reported more than $35 billion in asset write-downs, while reshuffling its board and revising certain governance policies to appease disgruntled shareholders. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s downgraded much of the banking-and-financial services sectors, as losses become the norm and many firms search for significant capital infusions.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) enhanced its leadership position in the mortgage origination and servicing markets (but is that really a good idea these days?), as it completed its acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC). At closing, the transaction was estimated at $2.5 billion, down significantly from the initial $4 billion proposal due to BofA’s plunging stock price.

In non-financial-sector news, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) is feeling the pain of a sluggish economy, given its customers’ inability to pay $5 for a “Cup of Joe,” as the company announced the closing of 600 stores during the next year. The General Motors Corp. (GM) liquidity struggles continued, as a key analyst even threw out the term “bankruptcy” in a recent report. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) still has interest in Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) and opened discussions with News Corp. (NWS) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX) about potential partnerships in such a deal.

The markets took their clues from surging crude oil prices yet again as supply concerns and tensions between Iran and Israel helped push prices to a new record near $146 per barrel. Since the beginning if the year, oil has jumped by more than 50% and gas prices have followed, causing many Americans to alter their July 4 plans and stick closer to home because of record ($4.098) gasoline prices.

The Dow and Nasdaq have both tumbled into “bear” territory as the indexes have fallen in excess of 20% since the highs set last year. On the international front, the markets have struggled in Britain, Germany, and Paris (among others), as escalating inflationary fears in Europe prompted a European Central Bank interest-rate increase (much to the chagrin of the Fed)

[For a related story on the ECB rate increase in today’s issue of Money Morning, please click here.]

Economically Speaking

While Fed Chief Ben S. Bernanke and friends fret over their “Mission: Impossible” task of guiding a struggling economy through a period of inflation, the European Central Bank increased its short rate by a quarter percentage point to counter its own price concerns. That move just made Bernanke’s job even harder as the higher rate abroad puts new pressures on the dollar – and, subsequently, on the entire U.S. domestic economy.

On the economic front, all eyes and ears were on the Thursday morning release of unemployment and non-farm payroll additions as investors got a quick glance at the labor picture before heading out for the long weekend. As expected, the jobless rate held steady at 5.5% and the economy lost more jobs for the sixth-consecutive month. Clearly, all businesses and not just financial firms remain nervous about the immediate future. Many have issued pink slips or offered early retirement buyouts in an attempt to lower their expenses. Construction, manufacturing, and retail were among the sectors that reported payroll contraction in June. [For a related story on the job numbers in today’s issue of Money Morning, please click here.]

The manufacturing sector got some good news in the form of a higher ISM survey release, though the euphoria was short-lived as a closer look inside the numbers revealed that higher prices contributed more to the increase than rising demand for U.S.-made products.

Likewise factory orders gained less than expected, another bad reflection on the state of manufacturing. As has become the norm during the housing slowdown, construction activity declined again in May, the fifth time that’s happened in six months.

Additionally, the ISM Services (non-manufacturing) index revealed sector contraction in June, surprising analysts who were calling for a third straight month of growth.

The week ahead doesn’t hold any big economic releases, giving investors a welcome break after last week’s disappointing round of reports.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: It’s an Ill Wind That Blows, as Earnings Seasons Approaches

• Crude futures closed yesterday (Wednesday) at a record $143.57 a barrel in New York after the U.S. Department of Energy announced a 2 million barrel decline in supply last week. Earlier, crude had traded for as high as $143.91 on Globex, MarketWatch reported.

• Shares of General Motors Corp. (GM) plunged Wednesday to their lowest level in 54 years yesterday (Wednesday), as investors shrugged off better-than-expected June sales and analysts raised concerns about the company’s cash needs, The Associated Press reported. In afternoon trading, GM shares fell as low as $9.98, their lowest level since hitting $10.36 a share on Sept. 21, 1954.

• Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has announced plans to close 600 underperforming U.S. stores and cut up to 12,000 full- and part-time positions, Reuters reported. The company is bracing for its first full-year profit decline since 2000, as it struggles with a deterioration in consumer spending and increased competition.

• The Nikkei 225 average fell 1.3% yesterday (Wednesday) to hit its longest losing streak in more than 40 years, Reuters reported. The benchmark Nikkei logged its 10th straight negative day, a period in which it has slid about 8%, its longest losing streak since February-March 1965.

• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) will cut at least 4,000 jobs, or 5% of its workforce, in a restructuring effort and has warned that higher costs will cut into profits this year, The Associated Press reported. Chief Executive Stephen J. Hemsley said the company is shifting management positions to better focus on regional coverage.

• American Airlines Inc., the air carrier subsidiary of AMR Corp. (AMR), yesterday (Wednesday) warned 900 flight attendants with the least seniority that they are subject to furlough Aug. 31. The airline said the notice was not a layoff notice, but that the written warning was a required step in the initial layoff process, DowJones reported.

• Circuit City Stores Inc. (CC) shares plunged 9% yesterday (Wednesday) after Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) announced it would no longer be pursuing its takeover offer after a round of due diligence with Circuit City’s books, MarketWatch reported. Shares closed at $2.32 a share yesterday; well under Blockbuster’s initial $6 – $8 per share bid.

• The Wall Street Journal yesterday (Wednesday) reported that Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) was seeking additional media partners for a bid for Yahoo! Inc.’s (YHOO) search engine business. Citing sources close to the talks, the Journal said discussions with Time Warner Inc. (TWX) and News Corp. (NWS), among others, were in early stages and unlikely to result in a deal with Yahoo, Reuters reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Thursday, July 3rd, 2008