US data may wake up the markets… Toyota reports a loss…  NZD falls, AUD gains… Will the Rupee shine in 2009?… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Dollar range bound… German confidence falls… Aussie and NZD continue to slide… US to maintain pressure on Chinese… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… Chuck had a rough night, so he decided to stay home and try to get some rest. The Pfennig will be pretty short this morning, as I want to try and get it out as close to the regular time as possible. The currency markets were fairly calm yesterday, with the dollar staying in a pretty tight range before rallying some in early trading this morning.

Come on, do you really believe the Fed is going to raise rates now, or in the near future with the economy teetering on the edge of a deep dark recession? Not a snowball’s chance in you know where! So, that leaves us with jawboning.

The euro hit 1.5820 overnight in Asian trading, but has seen that move erased during the London trading session… I don’t know what the Londoners know that the Asians don’t with regard to euros.

I don’t know at this point if this is a true reversal of the dollar rally or a false dawn… But either way… Just to see some chinks in the dollar right about this time is probably a good thing to currency holders!

The U.S. economy is in a recession, and the over-leveraged U.S. consumer won’t be able to ride to the rescue as they have in the past. And I don’t expect the stimulus checks to help much either, as they are way too little too late.

There’s no two ways about it folks. Inflation is a baaaaaaaaaddddddd thing… And I believe we will all rue the day that the Fed turned its back on inflation here in the United States. But Hey! That’s just me!

Fed Head Hoenig has thrown a cat among the pigeons this morning by stating that ‘inflation pressures may spur a rate rise by the Fed.’ Hmmm, is he serious, or just blabbering some currency intervention.

German Business Confidence…came out softer than expected in April, falling from 104.8 in March to 102.4. That was quite a tumble in business confidence, and apparently wipes out the previous three months of stronger confidence.

The problem here is that Fed Head Fisher is a Lone Ranger. Big Ben doesn’t share his thoughts, and when the Fed meets later this month and cuts rates, Fisher will probably be the lone wolf on dissenting.