I maintain that there are countless constructive tasks waiting to occupy us on a long national “to do” list for rebuilding a national economy, but they are way different than the ones currently preoccupying government and the mainstream media. The Obama White House, Congress, and The New York Times are hung up on exercises in futility — “rescuing” banks and insurance companies that cannot be rescued (because they are hopelessly trapped in “black hole” credit default swaps contracts), and re-starting a “consumer” binge that was completely crazy in the first place, based, as it was, on a something-for-nothing standard-of-living.

Meanwhile, if the buzz on the blogosphere is a measure of anything — and I think it is — then a new consensus is forming out there about where to start doing things differently. Unfortunately after less than two months in office, President Obama finds himself awkwardly behind-the-curve on this. It begins with the understanding that a general bank rescue is hopeless and, going a step further, that the people who caused the train wreck of “innovative” securities have to be prosecuted. The public’s collective voice on this is muted but growing. It has been muted by the general air of blackmail that the banks have used to enthrall policy and opinion — the “too big to fail” idea — in effect holding the nation’s future for ransom.

Last week, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo hauled Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) chief Ken Lewis into his office to explain who, exactly, received an aggregate several billion dollars in bonuses late in 2008 after the US Treasury forked over billions of dollars in TARP money to his bank. That was a good start. Mr. Lewis, being lawyered-up to the max, had the temerity to reply that answering the question would compromise his ability to keep talented people in his employ. For that impertinence alone, Mr. Lewis ought to be dragged over fifteen miles of broken chardonnay bottles behind a GMC Yukon — but that is not how we do things in American jurisprudence. To be more realistic, a simple indictment would be in order, and then Mr. Lewis can answer this question, and a few others, in the comfort of an air-conditioned courtroom. Ultimately, that might lead to Mr. Lewis becoming the wife of a bodybuilder in one of New York State’s houses of correction — a just outcome that would go far in rejiggering the nation’s expectations about how people in authority ought to behave. And such an outcome might lead to the conviction of many other brides-to-be from the Wall Street debutante pool.

Now it has come to light, just last week in the wake of AIG’s latest bail-out, that previous AIG bail-out money to the tune of $50 billion was distributed to a set of banks including Goldman Sachs (former employer of then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and then New York Federal Reserve Governor Tim Geithner), plus Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Merrill Lynch, Mr. Lewis’s Bank of America, and a long list of European banks with operations in the USA. Since the transactions took place in New York State, the investigation of these irregularities alone could solve the unemployment problem here if NY Attorney General Cuomo were given a free hand in hiring staff to depose everyone involved — including the hiring of caterers to bring in coffee and meals for round-the-clock proceedings.

All of this raises another awkward question: where is United States Attorney General Eric Holder in this situation? Surely the federal statutes offer some grounds for inquiring about the misuse of Treasury funds — and many other issues arising from Wall Street’s stupendous orgy of misbehavior. What I’m hearing out in the blogosphere is a growing clamor to call people to account before we are really able to move on to the massive task-list that awaits us in rebuilding our economy.

The bigger question for now is whether any of these authorities will act effectively before the public simply goes apeshit and starts burning down Greenwich, Connecticut. The dangerous shift in public mood is liable to occur with shocking swiftness, in the manner of “phase change,” where one moment you see a bewildered bunch of flabby clown-citizens vacuously enraptured by “American Idol,” and the next moment they are transformed into a vicious mob hoisting flaming brands to the window treatments of a hedge funder’s McMansion. The moment of opportunity for avoiding that outcome is looking sickeningly slim right now.

Another thing that President Obama can set into motion anytime — and pull himself back to the head of the curve of leadership — is to either by executive order or by proposal to congress, shut down the credit default swap system for a period of time while procedures are drawn up to place all these dubious contracts in a “clearing” market, where the holders of them will have to come clean about what they’re sitting on. The lack of this procedure is allowing zombie banks to hold the United States hostage for never-ending bailout ransoms. None of these banks are going to survive another six months anyway, so the basic blackmail motif that the whole money system will collapse if ransoms are not paid is a bluff that has to be called sooner or later in any case. So Mr. Obama might as well get on with it.

Once these two matters are dealt with — an earnest start-up of prosecutions and disabling the credit default swap blackmail racket — then perhaps a stressed-out and impoverished public might be induced to not go apeshit and instead get on with the mighty task of rebuilding our nation along lines that have a plausible future.

Source: The Consumer Economy Isn’t Coming Back

On Tuesday, President Obama signed the $787 billion bailout plan. In a Churchilian moment, he admitted that the end of the war on depression was not at hand, and more sacrifices would have to be made, but “today does mark the beginning of the end.”

At least, he has the whole world behind him. America’s mayors, for example have enlisted en masse. Heeding a call from the White House, they came up with 18,750 projects that are “shovel ready,” meaning, they can begin digging holes within hours after the cash hits their bank accounts. Las Vegas, for example, said it could use $2 million to put in more neon signs. Shreveport, Louisiana, said that if had $6 million, it would put in three new aquatic centers with slides.

Whee! These are the worst of times for many… but they are best of times for some. There is a bull market in claptrap; politicians haven’t had it so good since the New Deal.

In France, the Sarkozy government recently announced a plan to bailout the nation’s auto industry. The government will lend 9 billion euros to Renault, PSA (Peugeot) and their related finance companies. In return, the state hopes to collect interest and requires that the companies continue to employ French voters. Slovakian autoworkers don’t vote in French elections; they can go to Hell. In England, Gordon Brown announced yet another bank bailout this week – 37 billion pounds, he says, will provide a ‘rock of stability’ for the system. Traditionally, gold provides solidity to a banking system. But Gordon Brown, when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, sold off tons of British gold at barely a quarter of today’s price.

When the going was good, people believed things that weren’t true. Now, they still believe things aren’t true – but in the opposite direction. Where they once believed they could get richer, eternally, by squandering money they hadn’t earned, now, they look to the government to do it.

Depressions are so rare that there is no statistically reliable evidence about them. They are like women who rotate their husbands’ tires while preparing their dinners; they are so infrequently encountered that there is no point in making generalizations or trying to form them up into a baseball team. Each one is sui generis.

Hardly anyone is still alive who remembers the depression of the ‘30s or what the feds’ bailouts wrought. Here at the Daily Reckoning, we have already given our version of the story. A depression is not a pause, we recall explaining, it a time when debt is squeezed out of a saturated economy. Bailouts, handouts, and government stimuli actually retard the process.

But ours is a minority view. Only that great economist Fidel Castro seems to agree with us. The geniuses can’t help, he says; structural change is needed:

“Even if Kant, Plato and Aristotle were resurrected together with the late brilliant economist John Kenneth Galbraight [sic], they would neither be capable of solving the more frequent and deeper antagonistic contradictions of the system.”

But the burden of proof is on us. Which is too bad; Fidel is retired and we have no proof of anything. All we can do is marvel, and guffaw, at things so absurd they take our breath away.

In the bubble era people spent too much money they didn’t have on too many things they really didn’t need. Then came the credit crunch. Now, they hallucinate that if they spend even more money they don’t have, on things they hardly even want, they will get what they really need – jobs, growth and inflation. Even respected economists say they believe in miracles. Resources have been made “idle” by the depression, they claim, like strong backs in an unemployment line. Government spending is just putting them to work. By this reasoning, things that were too expensive even in the boom years miraculously become cheap at any price. And things that weren’t worth spending money on in the fat years become miraculously indispensable in the lean ones. It is like a man who didn’t care for caviar when he had a good job; now that he is unemployed, he must have it every night. They are only taking up ‘idle resources’ that would otherwise go to waste, explain the miracle workers. In their minds, an umbrella is useless unless it is actually raining.

But sometimes capital needs to take a break and hang on coat-rack. Every banker, householder and investor needs a reserve against mistakes. Now, more than ever. Until the crisis is over… and a new economy takes shape… any investment of labour or capital is likely be another mistake.

In normal times, residents of Chula Vista, CA, turned up their noses at spending a half a million on a public park for dogs. But now that the hard times are here, a place where dogs can run off the leash seems a fitting a use for money the town doesn’t have. In the best of times, Lincoln Nebraska was in no position to spend $3 million on an “environmentally friendly clubhouse for a municipal golf course.” But cometh the worst of times, and the golfers suddenly deserve not just a clubhouse, but one that is pals with nature.

Things we used to take for absurd we now take for granted. But it is just one of the wonders of the human race that it is capable of believing anything. The sunny years have passed. Now, there are storm clouds on every horizon. And instead of protecting its precious “idle” reserves… the government turns them into dog runs.

Source: Ready for the Shovels

Hey! What a day for the currencies yesterday! Geez Louise, it’s seems like it’s been a month of Sundays since I could say that! And there’s been follow up overnight, although, I do believe I’m seeing some profit taking right now… I went to radiation yesterday with the euro trading around 1.2965… I came back 2 hours later, and it was 1.31! And it didn’t stop there, trading up to 1.3175, but running into a wall of resistance there… But that was temporary, as the overnight market pushed the single unit higher to 1.3250… It did trade all the way up to 1.33 and change on news that the German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank IFO, unexpectedly rose for the first time in 8 months. This improvement was a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates…

Of course, you know me… And I always say that one swallow doesn’t make a summer… And that can be used here, as this IFO report is just one sliver of hope for the German economy… There needs to be more, or this will report will be put in the rear view mirror soon. So, I’m not pinning my colors to the mast of a German economic recovery, just yet! But, the data did “goose” the euro higher, and for taking part in that, I give the IFO kudos!

The Big Winner of the day though, was pound sterling… In a case of an asset “falling too far, too fast”… The pound sterling has done a Super Ball Bounce from Friday’s price, and has rebounded to 1.4190… Of course, that’s a rally from Friday’s figure of 1.3570… It certainly STILL shows the rot on the vine in the U.K. from last summer’s 2.00 for pound sterling. I would be very careful here, as the U.K. is in the same boat, smaller in size, but the same boat as the U.S….

I had a great lunch yesterday with the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and we were discussing what we would talk about next week at the Orlando Money Show. I told Frank that I really believe in the prospects of a nice big rally in Norwegian krone… Let me tell you why… First and foremost, it remains a Surplus country… A positive balance of payments… And that surplus has allowed Norway to weather the storm that’s hit just about every other country in the world… See, why I believe the Surplus countries should always be considered when buying currencies? Anyway… The main reason it lost ground from last July’s levels is the drop in Oil prices… They like the other types of Commodity driven currencies like Aussie, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, just got hammered due to the selling in Commodities… But… You know my outlook for the inflation in this country, and that will be driving Commodity prices higher by year-end… But the leader in the forefront of all this move will, in my opinion, be Oil prices… And IF Oil prices rebound like I suspect they will, that will be a very nice underpin for Norwegian krone…

And Gold traded above $900 yesterday… It has seen some profit taking overnight, and fallen back to $896… But, again, these are stair steps to higher levels for the shiny metal… But then that’s just my opinion. You have to make your own investment decision…

OK, the data yesterday was not good, Yes, the Existing Home Sales moved higher, but only at the expense of a falling Home Price… The median home price was $175,400 in December, down 15.3% from $207,000 in December 2007, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. The median price in November this year was $180,300. Here’s the real indication that this rise in sales wasn’t at good levels… Of all sales in December, about 45% were distress sales at discounted prices. That’s foreclosures and auctions on foreclosed homes folks… I don’t think we want to get up on the fence and crow about this report…

And then, after all my harping about how the markets should pay closer attention to Leading Indicators data, the report for December showed an unexpected gain of .3%… Again, the one swallow doesn’t make a summer, applies here too… I’m from Missouri, and I’ll need to be shown more of this to believe it…

Today, we get the color of the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, which will repeat what yesterday’s Realtors report showed… Expect more rot on the vine here though, with home prices showing an -18% drop…

And we’ll see Consumer Confidence, which I suspect will bump higher in December, although in reality I don’t know why… But it most likely will, based on the stock market’s head fake rally in December…

I see that “the cheater” a.k.a. Tim Geithner was confirmed as our U.S. Treasury Sec. I really didn’t think I would ever have another punching bag Treasury Sec. like I had with King Henry Paulson, but, then along came “the cheater”… I have to tell you that this is scary stuff folks… In his confirmation he said, not once, but twice, that “President Obama, backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists, believes that China is manipulating its currency. President Obama has pledged as President to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in China’s currency practices.”

OK folks, this is where the problems begin… If in his confirmation, he’s making statements like that, you can expect that Obama will push for legislature to put tariffs on Chinese goods… Protectionism… This is ALL GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION!!!!!!! And believe me now and hear me later… “the cheater” didn’t just make up this response! This was given to him by Obama, and “the cheater” made certain that everyone hear him, by repeating the answer!

I’ve told you before, folks, that Protectionism is to a currency, like kryptonite is to Superman… So… Not only is the Gov’t on the path to spending even more than the previous administration spent, they look as though they will go down this protectionism path… Add to that, the recession and zero interest rates, and you’ve got the ingredients for a huge swat at the dollar…

I read a report by Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley, where he writes that he believes the euro will trade back to 1.20 in the coming months… Well, that may be, and would play well with my Obama bounce thing… But with this all happening so fast in the past couple of days, I might have to rethink that Obama bounce thing… We may get an Obama bounce, but it may be for the euro and other currencies!

Oh… And one more thing on China, before I go on… The IMF’s Managing Director, Strauss-Kahn, was talking yesterday, and said, “I have said repeatedly that the renminbi is undervalued” He went on to add, “What we need is for the Chinese to change their policy and shift to more domestic-led growth than to focus on exports. Most Chinese officials are convinced that this is in their own interest.”

So… The IMF believes the renminbi is undervalued, and that the Chinese should do something about it, and so does the Obama administration… And you say, “Trade wars”? I bet you can! And not a good time for them either! Not when the whole globe is suffering… Dolts, all of them, they can’t see the Big Picture… Shame, Shame, Shame!

OK… I could really get going on all that… But… I’ll shift gears and talk about the bailouts… Have you seen the Neil Young, you know THE Neil Young, video on YouTube? He’s singing about the bailouts… Here are the lyrics…

There’s a bailout coming but it’s not for me
It’s for all those creeps watching tickers on TV
There’s a bailout coming but it’s not for me
There’s a bailout coming but it’s not for you
It’s for all those creeps hiding what they do
There’s a bailout coming but it’s not for you
Bailout coming but it’s not for you

So… When guys like Neil Young know that these bailouts aren’t working, and they aren’t good… It should be very apparent to the likes of Pelosi, and Obama…

Oh… And Home Depot announced 7,000 layoffs yesterday, Sprint announced 8,000 layoffs, while Caterpillar announced 20,000…

I’ll get to the Big Finish here in a minute… But first, and finally I wanted to talk briefly about New Zealand… The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets this week, and I truly expect them to continue their interest rate cutting. 325 BPS have already been cut from their once highest interest rate in the industrialized world… Finance Minister Bill English was speaking last night and said that the “economic outlook had deteriorated since the government’s Dec forecasts, and that the economy now looked to be closer to the Treasury’s “worst case scenario”.” In that scenario, he suggested that recession would continue through to 2010, the current account deficit would balloon beyond 10% of GDP, and unemployment would rise sharply rising. These aren’t “good times” for kiwis… So… Look for the weakness in the kiwi-dollar to remain in place here…

Currencies today 1/27/09: A$ .6625, kiwi .5280, C$ .8160, euro 1.3250, sterling 1.41, Swiss .8790, rand krone 6.7325, SEK 7.9660, forint 215.90, zloty 3.2950, koruna 21, yen 89, sing 1.4990, HKD 7.7690, INR 48.93, China 6.8615, pesos 14.05, BRL 2.3120, dollar index 84.36, Oil $46.27, Silver $12, and Gold… $897.40

Source: ‘The Cheater’ Speaks