Two things will define 2009. One is the huge $1 trillion economic stimulus package featuring “smart grids,” roads and bridges.

The other is the winding down of the war in Iraq. I believe that this will supersede handling the aftermath of the current eruption of violence between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The promise of ending the war helped President-Elect Obama get elected, though I believe the policy differences between the two presidential candidates were not as great as generally perceived.

Now Iran and Afghanistan are Obama’s problem. It’s not quite as urgent as the deteriorating state of the economy, but it’s close. Obama will begin withdrawing troops as soon as he can. That may not be until 2010. If violence and instability regain traction, it could be the year after. But much of the planning will be laid out this year.

But downsizing troops doesn’t mean downsizing our involvement. The goal is to save lives. And the quid pro quo will be spending more money.

The U.S. government doesn’t have much of a choice. If it doesn’t, any semblance of peace and stability in Iraq would be jeopardized.

So talk about reducing contractor levels in Iraq is just that– talk. The next stage will be outsourcing reconstruction and security functions to the private sector.

Such private-sector functions have been complementary to the overall role of the U.S. military in Iran. In the next stage, the U.S. military will complement the central role of the private sector in Iraq.The companies already providing their services over there are in a better position than anybody to know what‘s going on. And they also don’t believe the talk of cutting back the private-sector presence.

For example, William Ballhaus, the CEO of DynCorp (NYSE:DCP), an infrastructure and security company with a large presence in Iraq , said that with existing commitments stretching military manpower, capacity, contractors add value by letting the military focus on security operations.

Iraq’s needs are gigantic. Usually, a country’s needs grow organically as it modernizes and the economy expands.

But Iraq is emerging from a devastating war followed by years of destructive civil violence. Rebuilding Iraq is going to take a great deal of effort, money, and heavy equipment.

Think construction equipment… transportation and infrastructure services… and know-how.

Iraq will be getting loads of new stuff, including tow trucks, communications vehicles, hauling vehicles, aerial platforms for construction, fire and garbage trucks, and heavy-load hauling vehicles.

And Uncle Sam, of course, will be paying the bill.

Ballhaus, in his last quarterly earnings conference call, said that he expects Iraq will continue to provide American infrastructure contractors with plenty of business for several years.

He says that a withdrawal will increase work, at least temporarily. He also expects Obama to increase U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, and that an increase in force levels should lead to more work through 2010.

So this is the deal. U.S. government spending in Iraq and Afghanistan isn’t going to slack off. If anything, it’ll go up as reconstruction and security responsibilities shift to the private sector.

The companies that can take advantage of both of Obama’s huge infrastructure programs – the one that will play out in the U.S. and the one that will play out in Iraq and Afghanistan – will be big winners in 2009.

Source: The Other Infrastructure Stimulus Program: Iraq and Afghanistan

Global oil demand is not going to “plummet.”  And for the FT to say so is just plain silly, if not irresponsible.  OK, I know.  There’s an old saying that they teach in journalism schools.  “You have to sell newspapers.”  But this declaration by the FT highlights the perils of letting a headline-writer do your thinking for you.  It’s what I call “arguing a screaming conclusion.”  And a wrong conclusion at that.

Oil Demand – Down, Then Up

But let’s move past the headlines.  The Financial Times article explains that the World Bank has just issued a new study.  The World Bank believes that the world is entering into the toughest economic times “since the Great Depression.”  Thus overall world oil demand may fall by about half a million barrels per day in 2009.  That’s what the World Bank states in its report.

Only half a million barrels?  Heck, the total world demand for oil in the past year was about 87 million barrels per day (a fact that the FT article fails to note).  By comparison, the Saudi oil tanker that was hijacked off the coast of Somalia held two million barrels of crude oil.  And despite this act of piracy oil prices still fell over the next couple of weeks, even without that tanker plying its route across the deep blue seas.

So if the world experiences the next “Great Depression” (Release 2.0, I guess), a reduction in overall oil demand of half a million barrels per day is down in the statistical noise.  And what the World Bank is saying about the grim future of the world economy is not the equivalent of “plummeting” demand.  At least, not half a million barrels of lower usage.

How Bad Is It?

How bad is it out there?  Well, according to this week’s MasterCard Spending-Pulse data, U.S. retail gasoline demand is back to about the same levels it showed earlier in 2008.  That is, high gas prices hurt demand over the summer and into the fall.  (I drove less.  Didn’t you?)  But the current low fuel prices have evidently allowed demand to recover.  People are driving more.  It’s basic Economics 101.

I was talking with an economist for the American Petroleum Institute about two weeks ago.  He told me that overall gasoline demand in October was down 3%, year-to-year.  But diesel fuel usage was up by the same amount.  Overall U.S. oil demand is down about 8%, but that reflects the slowing use of oil in industry.  Out on the road, people are still driving and trucks are still hauling.

For all the sound and fury about the run-up in oil and fuel prices through July, and then the fall in prices after that, the aggregate demand for oil is only changing at the margins.

Built-In Oil Demand

In both the developed and developing worlds, there’s a lot of oil demand built into the economic and social energy system.   That’s what modern development is all about.  That’s how the system was built over the past 100 years or so.  Yes, you can wish that the system were different.  You can even try to change the system – and risk collapsing it in the process.

Whatever you do, you can’t change the system very fast.  To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, “You live in the world with the energy system you have.  Not the energy system you might wish you had.”

So at best, if you want to change things you are looking at a generational shift.  If you have a generation.  Do we have a generation?

What Will OPEC Do?

Let’s try looking at some different numbers.  How about 7 million barrels of oil per day?  That’s the amount of output that OPEC might have to shut-in if it wants to get prices headed back upwards in to the range of $75 per barrel or so.  At least, that’s according to Philip Verleger, a long-time industry player as quoted recently in Platt’s industry newsletter The Barrel.

Current daily oil output from OPEC is about 32 million barrels per day.  Verleger thinks that OPEC’s output ought to be more like 25 million barrels per day.  There’s the 7 million barrel shift.  Easy, right?  It would be as if Iran, Iraq and Qatar simply stopped exporting oil.  How likely is that to happen?  Umm… yes.  Clearly, Verleger has a radical take on things.

One way or another, can OPEC cut production significantly?  Does OPEC have the discipline to manage its own affairs to cut 2 million barrels, or 4 million, let alone 7 million barrels per day?   The issue is that numerous OPEC nations cheat on their production quotas.  Hey, they need the money.  Thus they lift the oil and sell it.  Really, cheating on OPEC quotas is not a problem.  It’s a tradition.

What of the Future?

Looking ahead by more than about two years, world oil demand is certainly going to grow.  It almost does not matter what we do in the U.S. or Europe.  When you look at the numbers of young people who are already born and living and growing up in the developing world, the demand will be there.  Many of these young people already have a cell phone and a laptop computer.  When they finish school, they will want an apartment and a car.

And at the rate things are going, the energy industry is still under-investing in the necessary systems of the future.  Depletion is still ongoing.  It gets back to the very basic point that every barrel you lift from the ground leaves one less barrel down there.  And the overall global depletion rate is 6% at best.  Maybe it’s 8%.  It might be 10%.  To replace that depletion, the general trend is for the energy industry to go further away, to deeper waters or more remote sites, to drill deeper wells, with hotter temperatures and higher pressures.  Those little hydrocarbon molecules are just plain tough to catch.

And keep in mind that nobody can produce oil that has not been discovered.  Or developed.  Or for which there are no handling facilities.  That takes investment, and lots of it.  Which requires money and finance, which is in rather short supply just now.  So there are just a few years in which the world can reorder the way it does oil, let alone the big picture on energy.  And there are a lot of moving parts in all of this.

The Moving Parts of Oil Production

One of our fellow (sister, actually) readers is deeply involved in monitoring the world oil situation.  The other day she sent me a thoughtful list of “ifs” that have to happen just to begin to get future oil production on firm ground.  Here it is:

• IF oil price rises above the marginal cost of new non-OPEC supply in time to get new production back on track;
• IF oil-producing countries and China stop subsidizing prices to their own populations;
• IF OPEC gives international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc. access to explore and develop their reserves;
• IF the trillions in exploration and infrastructure capital are invested;
• IF OPEC invests seriously in increasing their own capacity;
• IF enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes can really increase the recovery rate as much as hoped;
• IF the reported reserves are really there;
• IF the U.S. Geological Survey predictions of “yet-to-find” oil in the Arctic, offshore and elsewhere are correct;
• IF the Saudis can are capable of reaching and sustaining 15 million barrels per day of output;

IF, IF, IF …

“And,” adds my correspondent, “virtually all of these are outside the control of any policies that might be set by the oil-importing nations of the West.”

So unless a lot of things happen – pretty soon and in the right sequence, and competently — we’re going to be faced with the prospect that there’s not going to be enough oil to go around.  So oil prices are going to head back up.  People and governments are going to get desperate over supplies.  And much of the usual and predictable bad stuff that you’ve heard before is going to happen.  Which gets back to that Financial Times headline.  “Plummeting” demand?  Really.

A Few More Dots to Connect

President-Elect Barack Obama made a major announcement last weekend.  It was along the lines that his administration would work to invest in infrastructure.  Congress loved it because it means that the politicians can appropriate money to spend on concrete and steel.  That’s what I’ve been saying would happen.  But it’s nice to hear it.

The announcement was good in the short term for a couple of the OI stocks, like Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Cemex (CX:NYSE) and General Electric (GE:NYSE).   They all have things to sell into an infrastructure buildout, as do more recent additions like Koppers Holdings (KOP:NYSE) and Allegheny Technologies (ATI:NYSE).

Where will the U.S. government get the money to pay for the infrastructure buildout?  Same place it gets all the money to bail out the banks and Wall Street, I guess.  It’ll borrow it.  And in the process the U.S. borrowing will soak up most of the nation’s “spare” capital, such as it is.  U.S. government borrowing will crowd private borrowing.

The U.S. government can borrow money for the time being.  For some strange reason, people still want to buy U.S. Treasury bills, bonds and notes.  Don’t ask me why.  The interest rates are just about zero (safety sells, I suppose).  And the dollar is strong.

Actually, the dollar is much stronger than it ought to be.  I expect a major dollar-correction in the first quarter of 2009, which will be good for foreign-denominated stocks that trade on the Toronto Exchange.  (Although Canada is having some surprising political issues right now.  I’d appreciate hearing from Canadian readers about their take on what’s going on with Prime Minister Harper.)

In the longer run, the U.S. expenditures will come back as inflation.  That means that you want to look at owning gold and shares in the best-run gold miners.  If I had to pick just one gold miner with the best prospects, it would be Kinross Gold (KGC:NYSE).   It’s well managed.  Kinross just completed a series of mine expansions.  And it’s ramping up production to sell increasing levels of output into a generally rising gold market.

Source: Whither the Oil Markets

Here are eight stocking stuffers to unwrap.

1) The conversation between Libertarians and the rest of us (who aren’t on some nutty fringe) would go a lot smoother if we would all agree that laws and regulations do not prevent bad behavior.

Rather, they are merely guideposts to measure the quality of deviance in a way that allows the US’s local, state and federal judiciary to hand out retribution.

If you need further proof of this, I offer you two words – Bernard Madoff.

In an under-regulated world, Ponzi schemes might not be illegal. In fact, you can assume that is a near certainty, judging by the number of famous institutions and wealthy people that poured billions into Madoff’s fund, even as they suspected he was cooking the books.

The allure of that steady 9% return was just too strong… flies to the dung heap.

You have to wonder how many of Madoff’s investors will not only lose millions on the madman’s fund, then double those loses when the IRS goes all militia on their wacky offshore tax schemes. The latter is one of 2008’s most under-reported financial stories… as it will likely be in 2009.

2) Poor and middle-class people dream of the big investment score – the lottery… wealthy people, as the Madoff affair demonstrates, get all dewy eyed over 9%.

The reason is simple. Nine percent of $10 million is $900,000. That’s enough to survive on, even if it’s your only income. On the other hand, try living on 9% of $200,000 or 9% of $100,000…

Actually, if you don’t have health insurance and you live in a tent, you can probably stretch $18,000 out through a year, as long as you don’t pay the capital gains tax on it.

3) Now that the conservatives on the Supreme Court have opened the door for a new round of huge lawsuits against the Altria Group, you have to wonder what would prevent the President-elect, who can choke down some Marlboros, from joining a class-action suit.4) Here’s a play for all those union-hating people who believed, without verifying, all the recent bunk about how the United Auto Workers union is killing US automakers.

There is LUV in the air for you. Southwest Airlines trades around $7.50 today. Many of its employees, 7,200 ground-crew workers, haven’t had a raise since 2005. Ten-month long negotiations with these workers broke down in October.

LUV is profitable, its debt is manageable, and its earnings and revenues are slated to increase by about 10%. Additionally, though I hate the quarterly reporting game, LUV seems historically adept at producing earnings surprises on a regular basis.

Still, the best part of this play is it’s so Reaganesque… Southwest seems to hate its employees.

Nevertheless, LUV looks like one of 2009’s share-price doublers.

5) Here’s a sweet play that should tap into the infrastructure mania that’s about to sweep the world.

Find someone to give you good, long odds on an under/over bet that you won’t be reading at least 199 “First Great Obama Stock” promotions in the coming six months. Take the over.

Hell, I got an “Obama stock” via fax the other day – some 22-cent West Virginia coal play. Damn thing went up 10 cents the next day, too.

6) If you want to play the coming Obama/worldwide economic-stimulus infrastructure bubble, you’re going to have to get in soon.

In China, that would mean jumping on low prices General Steel Holding (NYSE:GSI). I’ve known the GSI guys for five years now – even before they were public.

Actually, I took a bunch of investors over to Beijing in 2004 and introduced them to the company just two hours before it went public.

Great company… great CEO… great management (much of its top management and board are from what I affectionately refer to as Beijing’s born-again Christian mafia).

Its earnings are slated to jump out of the roof next year. At around $4, GSI is a wicked steal.

GSI is one of 2009’s potential share-price triplers.

7) If you want to stay closer to home and still play the great-infrastructure-bubble-of-2009, then take a good look at Pasadena, California-based Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:JEC). But, do it fast, because it is destined to be a newsletter darling next year.

Multifaceted, JEC provides technical, professional, and construction services to industrial, commercial, and governmental customers worldwide.

It designs and engineers manufacturing plants that make chemicals and polymers, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, oil and gas refining, food and consumer products, and basic resources industries

It also designs and engineers infrastructure projects such as highways, roads, bridges, and other transportation systems, as well as water and wastewater treatment plants, water resources facilities.

Most analysts agree that JEC should see a nice jump in earning next year. It has a tiny amount of debt, which make its 20.5% return on equity that much more impressive.

JEC has the very real potential to be one of 2009’s safest share-price doublers.

Do your own homework on Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), Vodafone (VOD), Cosco Singapore (CSCMY)… each could have a smoking hot 2009.

That’ll do it for this week. I’ve been traveling so, I need get home to Boston and get some of that New England Christmas spirit going.

Of course, one of the season’s happiest symptoms is the fact that so many of us return to a naïve child-like state that peace on earth – even for a few weeks – seems like a noble goal.

Merry Christmas (for those among you that find such a salutation applicable).

Source: Double- and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009