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The Ghosts of 2008, Gold Stocks, A Currency Play, Bank Role Reversal and More!

Ian Mathias — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 20:00:42 +0000

Deja vu all over again… are stocks just following the 2008 playbook?… Bill Jenkins shares his favorite global currency… Gold bugs beware: Gold chart forecasts a sell-off… Yet league of famous funds (and Chris Mayer) are buying up gold stocks… Plus, are we reading this right? A bank bails out the government?

We’re scanning markets of the world today and scratching our heads… haven’t we heard this before?
There was a scare at the start of the year – banks were in trouble, the housing market was crashing and unemployment was rising. The S&P fell at a rate unseen in a long, long time. But then,a sucker’s rally! The worst was likely over, they said… stocks were oversold. The U.S. consumer, China and oil companies promised to lead us out of this mess. And of course, the current administration’s new multibillion stimulus plan will kick in any second.

After bottoming in early March, stocks soared well off their lows. With the S&P 500 at break-even for the year, stocks now face an inflection point.

Wait a second… what year is it?

We need not remind you of what happened in the second half of 2008. But it’s not worth worrying about… it’ll be different this time!
Stocks took quite a tumble Thursday. The worse-than-expected jobs report gave traders more than enough reason to be short into the three-day weekend. The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%. Since reaching its 2009 high in early June, the S&P is down 5%.
Major indexes are in trouble again today. The Dow and S&P opened down 0.75%, mostly thanks to sour moods left over from Thursday.
And just as in 2008, the smart money says there is more pain ahead:

“You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them,” said market sage and author of The Black Swan Nassim Taleb. “You may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that’s breaking. We’re in the middle of a crash. So if I’m going to forecast something, it is that it’s going to get worse, not better.”

And the root of all our woes, Mr. Taleb? “The monkey on our back is debt.”

Amen. This should be deja vu to our most dedicated readers…Nassim shared a similar sentiment at the 2007 Agora Financial Investment Symposium. We expect equally prophetic forecasts from our speakers this year. If you haven’t signed up to join us, better get on it right now… the show starts in two weeks.
Just like in 2008, the logical move is to sell dollars and buy useful assets, like gold. But just like last year, the current trade du jour is buy greenbacks, sell everything else. After Thursday’s, stock sell-off, the dollar index broke out of its recent range. It had been hovering just around 80 and now goes for 80.7.
“The dollar system or the system based on the dollar and euro have shown that they are flawed,” Russian President Medvedev told the international press today, yet another call from a BRIC nation to ditch the dollar. He’ll meet with President Obama this week. We wonder if he’ll have the stones to bring this up:

“In the long term, we must also think about a single unit of payment such as the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. We cannot be hostages to the economic situation of a single country, as is happening today with the United States.”
“Of the major world currencies, I have to say that Australia’s dollar is my favorite,” writes our currency man Bill Jenkins. “It has an edge because of its commodity-related economies and currencies.

“Now, Canada has the same edge. In fact, you may hear the Canadian and Australian dollars called the CommDolls (commodity dollars) for short. But Canada is inextricably tied to its neighbor to the south (namely, us), and that’s more than just a little problematic.

“Australia, on the other hand, is not tied to the United States. Instead, it’s better placed to trade with another resource-hungry nation — China.

“As China attempts to lift itself up by its own bootstraps, Australia comes into the picture. It has been widely understood that Australia is a little China. Not in culture, custom or language, but in economics. A significant part of Australia’s commodities flow into China, and the more the Chinese move ahead, the better it is for Australia.

“Also, let’s consider that Australia’s central bank is still holding its interest rates at 3%. In a fairly stable country, with a fairly stable currency, that is one heck of an attractive rate. Why, it is downright appealing!

“Indeed, Australia may now become the benefiting member of the next carry trade. After all, if can you borrow money at 0.25% and invest it at 3%, you stand to make a decent haul. And as risk appetite re-enters the market, you can bet your bottom dollar that Australia will likely be a real beneficiary.”

That’s just a snippet from Bill’s latest special report, which his Master FX Options Traders received over the weekend. Only subscribers have access to this report, which includes his provocative new short euro trade. If you want in on the action, click here.
From a technical standpoint, gold looks set for some short-term pain. Just like stocks, the gold chart is taking a page from 2008. Check it out:

When it hit the fan last year, gold failed to deliver the righteous moonshot many had forecast. It certainly was a better place to be than stocks, but gold still suffered. Until further notice, the same playbook appears to be in use today… gold may be the once and future money, but the dollar and U.S. Treasuries remain the ultimate flight to quality when the going gets tough.

After sticking to a tight range the last few weeks, gold fell today along with stocks. The spot price shed $10, to $925 an ounce.
“I see everything coming up roses for gold and those who mine it,” says Chris Mayer, armed with proof he’s not the only value hound with his eye on gold.

“For the first time in a couple of decades, some of America’s most successful, big-name investors are buying gold. David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager who predicted the downfall of Lehman Bros., recently bought gold for the first time.

“And then there is John Paulson, the guy who made billions of dollars by correctly anticipating the housing bust and credit crisis. Paulson just plunked down $1.3 billion for an 11% stake in AngloGold. He’s also got a big position in Kinross Gold.

“Peter Munk, the 81-year-old chairman and founder of Barrick Gold, also offers up his own anecdote about gold’s broadening appeal. ‘I have had more phone calls in the past six months than ever before — from people who have $120,000 inherited from grandmother, and from hedge fund managers with millions,’ he says. ‘I am not saying George Soros, but people of that caliber have told me they are buying gold.’

“You no longer have to be a gold bug to think gold will rise in price. In fact, this buying by some of the world’s greatest investors may be the leading indicator for a quick 116% climb — to $2,000 per ounce or higher. Give gold the cold stare of a professional handicapper and the odds look very good, indeed.”

Chris just gave his Capital & Crisis readers another gold stock for the long haul. He tells us it’s “a miner in a in politically safer area with a growing production profile, falling costs, a good balance sheet and a stock that is cheap on the face of it.” Sounds hard to beat, eh? For access to this pick and the rest of the C&C portfolio, click here.
Oil’s down today, too. The front-month contract is off $2, to $66 a barrel.
The American service industry contracted again in June, the ISM reports today. Their monthly gauge of the service sector scored 47 last month, 3 points below a “growth” reading of 50. At least that’s an improvement from May’s score of 44. In fact, June was the third straight monthly increase… we’ll keep on an eye on this one.
The FDIC closed down seven banks late Thursday, a single-day record for the credit crisis. That brings the total to 52 for the year. Considering the five bank failures the week before, it’s clear the pace of bank busts is accelerating.
Last in today’s deja vu issue, a role reversal that doesn’t remind us of the last 18 months whatsoever. Get this: A struggling bank bailed out a municipality over the weekend.

In an unfortunate sign of the times, many communities across the country canceled fireworks shows for the Fourth. You know the drill… budgets are tight, revenues are down, savings are nil.

New Providence, N.J., was one of those towns, until its local bank stepped in. Investors Savings Bank blew the dust of its wallet and wrote New Providence a $12,000 check to finance the fireworks display. That’s a tiny sum, even for a community bank, and probably equal parts philanthropy and marketing. But good grief… it’s the first such role reversal we’ve heard in a long time.
“How can we expect a heavily debited consumer-based economy to ‘recover’?” asks a reader, with a barrage of rhetorical questions. “When borrowing and spending drives the economy and unemployment soars and credit shrinks, how can we expect an increase in spending? When our goal is to recover and we have issues like this to deal with, can we really get there from here? I don’t see how it’s possible. In my opinion, we have been in a depression for over a year and our path from here is down, not up. What am I missing? How can our consumer economy recover? What will a recovery from here look like?

“By the way, paying a million dollars to have lunch with Buffett, who just lost $30 billion, is beyond stupid. Buffett can make it in good times, but in bad times, do just the opposite of what he does and you will get some of his money!”

The Ghosts of 2008, Gold Stocks, A Currency Play, Bank Role Reversal and More!

Potential Refinery Strike to Boost these 2 Oil Stocks

Andrew Snyder — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 19:15:15 +0000

It looks like it will be another volatile week in the energy markets. On one side of the balance, a tremendous economic slowdown and an overabundance of oil are pushing prices down, while the other side of the balance, rather empty until now, has the threat of a major strike propping prices up. Here’s two ways to play it.

This from Today’s Financial News:

Even with the threat of a strike, crude prices managed to dip below the crucial $40 level, the unofficial delineator between cheap and moderately priced oil. What will happen through the rest of the week is up to the United Steelworkers.

If the union, which represents some 30,000 employees and about 70% of the nation’s refinery production, votes against the proposed contract, volatility is bound to rise. If a contracted is ratified over the next day or so, then volatility and prices are likely to drop even further.

The union and the nation’s oil companies are working on a day-by-day basis, but insiders say they are getting close to a compromise. In fact, some say it looks like a strike may even be unlikely. But unions have surprised us before and will certainly do it again.

Destroying what’s left

What makes a worker want to go on strike in this economic downturn, especially after they were promised a raise, remains out of my grasp. But then again, what makes unions tick in the first place has always been a mystery to me. They drove large manufacturers out of my hometown, took Detroit to its knees and now they are threatening to tear at the throat of the nation’s last great blue-collar profit maker.

If these workers get the guts to strike, as an investor, you have a few options. You can pick a major oil refiner, like Valero (NYSE:VLO), the nation’s largest, and short it. After all, even a short-term strike will pull down its quarterly profits.

Another option is to play the broader refining industry through an ETF like United States Gasoline Fund (NYSE:UGA). As production falls, gasoline prices will rise.

Finally, you can play the broader energy market through a fund like the Ultra Oil and Gas ProShares (NYSE:DIG). If shares go up, its price will jump at a two-to-one ratio, at least on a day-to-day basis. Be careful with these ETFs as they are calculated on a single day, not a long-term trend. With the right level of volatility, these shares can actually drop in value even as prices rise over the long-term. They do it quite often.

But do not be certain crude prices will rise because of a refinery-level strike. Chances are, it could be just the opposite. We already have too much oil on the market. If refineries shut down, the supply glut will be even worse. In that case, take the Ultrashort Oil and Gas ProShares (NYSE:DIG).

No matter which slant you take or which way you choose to invest, one thing is certain. The nation’s largest companies are once again out of the predictable hands of a free market. They have been seized by unions and greedy politicians.

It makes the job of an investor even harder, but the profit opportunity is there just the same.

Source: Playing a potential refinery strike

Why Oil May Be Headed for $50

Ian Davis — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 16:27:08 +0000

In 2000, investors thought the world was a “different” place. “You have to value Internet companies differently,” people would say. “Ignore the triple-digit P/E… That is an obsolete way to value a company.”

But they were wrong. The Datastream Internet Index reached its peak on January 3, 2000, and then collapsed, falling 93.8% over the next 34 months.

In 2005, investors thought the real estate market was “different.” Homeowners were buying houses more expensive than they could afford because they thought inflation would protect them. While home prices could stagnate, they wouldn’t go down.

But, as you know, they were wrong. Beginning July 2006, real estate has fallen 16.2%.

Investors will come up with any excuse to continue pumping money into a sector that’s produced amazing returns for them in the past. And when the money starts piling in, it’s time for you to get out.

Today, the sector is oil. In inflation-adjusted terms, the price of oil is up 140% in the last 18 months. At first glance, the logic seems plausible…

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Global demand for oil is surging. Most of this increase comes from emerging economies like China and India. And global oil supply is on the decline. A large cause is poor reserve management by nationalized oil companies.

Venezuela’s oil production, for example, decreased by at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) since President Hugo Chavez nationalized the country’s oil fields between mid-2006 and 2007. And Iran’s leaders can’t attract private capital and technology, so production is down 3 million bpd to half of what it used to be under the Shah.

Russia and Nigeria are in the same boat… The problem is, high oil prices make governments greedy. They take over oil fields and mismanage them, decreasing supply growth… and leading to even higher oil prices.

This imbalance has catapulted the price of oil to stratospheric levels. Even when adjusted for inflation, the price of crude oil is now far above its 1980 peak.

In the long run, simple economics tells us the price of a barrel of oil should equal the cost of producing the most expensive barrel of oil needed to meet global demand.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil market has a small surplus of existing production. And according to a Dallas Federal Reserve economist, the most expensive barrel of oil needed to meet global demand is being produced at just $50. With oil currently priced at $137 a barrel, the incentive to find and produce more oil is enormous.

This process takes time… But there are already signs supply is climbing. Shale oil in the Dakotas and in the Canadian tar sands – which costs about $70 a barrel to produce in both places – is attracting enormous amounts of investment capital.

In addition, research into the process of converting coal to oil might yield a more environmentally friendly process sometime in the near future, which would overcome one of the major hurdles facing coal-to-oil production now. The supply of coal in the U.S., if you were wondering, is plentiful.

From the demand side, the EIA reports consumption in 30 developed countries has fallen 460,000 bpd since last year. Most of that decline comes from plummeting U.S. demand.

This commodity rally – and the oil boom in particular – is not any different than previous booms. The market will find a new equilibrium, and the price of oil will undergo a nasty correction.

Good investing,

Ian

P.S. As my colleague Matt Badiali explained in a recent DailyWealth essay, don’t confuse brains with a bull market. If you own oil and gas stocks, now’s the time to keep an eye on your stops. On the other hand, the market has mauled refiners. But I think right now, refining stocks are perfectly positioned for the coming oil rout.

Source: Why Oil May Be Headed for $50

Special Energy Indicator Points Toward Higher Gas Prices and a Potential 467% Profit Play

Keith Fitz-Gerald — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 12:02:46 +0000

Here at Money Morning over the past six months, we’ve talked a great deal about oil and gasoline prices. We’ve offered our predictions about how high those prices were going, and have detailed a number of investment opportunities – chosen as much for their margins of safety as for their profit potential.

This time we’re going to detail three energy stocks with the potential for double-digit – or even triple-digit – profit gains. Admittedly, these are longer-shot, speculative plays. But we used a special energy indicator to help ferret out these energy plays.

This indicator is known as the “crack spread.”

In case you’ve never heard the term before, the crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the value of the petroleum products that refiners can make from it. The crack spread can widen or narrow over time, depending upon various combinations of supply and demand.

If the spread is positive, that means the price of the products that result from the refining process – gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, heating oil, kerosene and asphalt, to name a few – is greater than the cost of the crude oil needed to make them. But if the spread is negative, it suggests that the cost of crude is higher than the end-game value of its derivatives.

Right now, the crack spread is narrowing. In fact, it has been for some time as governments around the world and gasoline companies actually try to hold down the pain motorists feel at the pump.

Granted, governments and major oil players make for strange bedfellows. But they have a common interest right now: Both are trying to prevent “demand destruction,” the plunge in oil demand that would result if millions of motorists – fed up with high oil and gasoline prices – just stopped driving. Governments want to prevent an economic collapse, while the integrated oil companies simply want to avoid being branded as the “bad boys” of the soaring-oil-price era – making it much easier for the incoming presidential administration to slap the entire sector with an “excess-profits tax” (something that’s already being discussed by Washington insiders).

But we can also see another scenario, one that’s very different. Peering into our crystal ball, we can see a situation in which the crack spread begins to widen, and gasoline prices run away anyway – eventually reaching $7 or even $9 a gallon.

For motorists, the pain would be excruciating. For investors, however, there’s a chance for double or even triple-digit profit gains.

Let me explain…

The Subsidy Gambit

It turns out that a number of Asian governments – most notably Taiwan, Malaysia and China, for instance – are actually reducing or eliminating fuel subsidies designed to shield their consumers from crude oil’s relentless march. Ostensibly, this is designed to control demand, but history suggests this will merely give those with the money access to increasingly large supplies that they’ll gobble up. In other words, we believe that demand may be growing fast enough to override the prices that governments around the world still believe to be inelastic.

Combine that possible new reality with the fact that a developing Asia accounts for as much as 70% of the increase in global oil consumption, this end of subsidies would probably hammer worldwide markets, including our own.

Given that Asia represents a mere 20% of current global usage, Asia’s growth is critical to how the rest of the world uses and prices petroleum-related products – particularly gasoline. Incidentally, this stands in stark contrast to how Japan and much of Europe do things where high taxes on fuel and transportation are used to blunt demand.

The economic forces that will be unleashed when these subsidies are removed have the potential to make the Great Tunguska Blast that took place 100 years ago this month look like a wet firecracker.

Indonesia, for instance, spends nearly 20% of its budget to underwrite fuel costs and has telegraphed a 30% hike in fuel prices when those subsidies are removed. It’s much the same story in China, India and the Philippines, where separate figures for fuel subsidies are hard to come by, but where it’s safe to say that the net effect of these price controls have contributed to artificially low prices and artificially high levels of demand.

In China, where the government caps gasoline prices, for instance, motorists pay about half of what their U.S. counterparts pay. All in all, governments around the world will spend about $100 billion on oil subsidies this year – meaning about half the world’s population is benefiting from “cut-rate” petroleum prices. This year, those folks will account for all of the growth in global oil demand, equal to an additional 1 million barrels of oil per day, says Deutsche Bank AG (DB).

Now, pressure is escalating globally for countries to end the subsidies the world economy can ill-afford. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, is “calling on governments to let consumers face market prices in order to kick-start conservation and reduce official spending,” says The Christian Science Monitor.

As I hinted earlier, this change has the potential to jam a lot of consumers personally. But it would allow world markets to function as, well, markets. And that, in turn, would afford investors one of the biggest turnaround opportunities available in the energy sector today. The reason: As the subsidy removals, pricing changes and demand shifts work their way through the global economy, the crack spread would widen again… and fast.

And the biggest beneficiaries could well be the oil refiners, which have seen their profits get zapped along with crack spreads in the past year.

The Best Way to Play the Shift From Subsidies

If there is a sector turnaround, the upside could be huge. And the three firms in line to benefit are Western Refining Inc., Valero Energy Corp. and Holly Corp. Let’s take a closer look at each of the three:

Western Refining Inc. (WNR): The El Paso, Tex.-based Western is an independent crude-oil refiner that owns and operates four refineries, and that also owns and runs 155 retail service stations and convenience stores in the Southwest. Although Western’s shares rose 77 cents each, or nearly 7.1%, to close at $11.66 yesterday (Thursday), the stock is down 82% from its 52-week high of $66.13. Independent researcher Soleil Securities Group Inc., this week initiated coverage of Western with a “Sell” rating and a target price of $8, contending that the company is highly leveraged and has seen its shares suffer in concert with its peers as part of a general sector downturn. That underscores the sentiment these companies face. But a return to its 52-week high would represent a 467% gain.

Cashing in on Commodities: Two Ways to Profit From the World’s Newest Markets

Keith Fitz-Gerald — Fri, 30 May 2008 09:51:44 +0000

Many people are in sticker shock thanks to high gas prices and oil that punched through the $135-a-barrel level recently, before sliding back.And many investors are feeling left out because they haven’t been part of the incredible bull run energy companies have enjoyed in the last few years.

But have no fear.

It’s not too late to grab a piece of the pie.

The trick is that you’ll have to look beyond the obvious choices like major oil companies, drillers and other sectors that are hopelessly bid up right now. And you can play various types of funds, as well as stocks, as we’ll demonstrate.

The Four Factors Giving Life to the Commodity Bull

But before we tackle the how, let’s tackle the why:

First, it’s important to understand that high oil prices are simply going to go higher, still. There will be inevitable pullbacks, but as we’ve written so many times in the past, the math is very simple – people are simply using more oil than at any time in history and worldwide demand is accelerating.

Second, it’s also important to note that we haven’t had a major new discovery of any substantial size in the last 30 years. And by substantial, we mean big enough to change the balance of supply and demand and, by implication, to reverse the runaway increase in prices. The lack of any new discoveries, then, also points to higher prices.

Third, absent an immediate, cost-effective and widely available substitute, oil is increasingly nationalistic in nature. This means that oil producers – and particularly the tyrants with spigots – will begin holding back production for their own use. That will reduce the supply available on world markets, further enhancing the upward pricing pressure.

And fourth, while higher prices are finally inducing some drivers in modern industrialized countries to drive less, developing nations don’t give damn about conservation and are guzzling gasoline like there’s no tomorrow – which, for them, is entirely true. For these nations, access to energy and to petroleum is the literal equivalent to survival and they’ll do everything they can to ensure it. So any drop in demand we’re experiencing is almost immediately offset by higher consumption in such markets as China, India and many parts of South America. And that offsetting consumption may well persist for years.

That’s a very painful reality to face. But it does bring us to the fun part of this commentary: The profits.

New Markets = New Profit Opportunities

Any time you have sustained supply-and-demand imbalances, you also the potential for huge profits. And what’s happening now is no different.

Viewed in that light, higher oil prices can actually be a good thing for the stock markets, just as the rising price of such “commodities” as gold, copper, cotton, silk and spices have been for various nations since the dawn of time.

The reason is that excess profits that would ordinarily flow to Caracas, Moscow and Riyadh, are being recycled into the best global stocks on the best first-tier global stock exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange, the Tokyo and Hong Kong stock exchanges, and the Frankfurt, Euronext and London exchanges.

But that may be coming to a head as trillions of dollars are chasing a diminishing number of high-quality stocks, which over time will propel those shares to excessively high valuation levels.

So what’s an investor to do? Savvy investors will once again have to go with the (global money) flow, ferreting out markets that haven’t yet hit “mainstream” radar screens, but that still are likely to benefit from rising oil prices.

We refer to them as “frontier” markets and they include such mineral- and resource-rich places as Nigeria, Sudan, Egypt and Bangladesh among others. They’re obviously beyond the same old BRIC choices that have become so popular in recent years.

Most of these markets are so small that many investors overlook them altogether – but they’ll soon become very popular because of the tremendous upside they offer.

Even with political upheaval, hyperinflation, open warfare and catastrophic human and natural disasters, frontier markets are piling on stunning returns. Most are benefiting significantly from rising commodity prices that, in turn, produce higher corporate profits.

As a case in point, consider the Standard & Poor’s/IFCG Frontier Markets Composite Index posted a mouth watering 43.3% return last year. And individual markets did even better. Bangladesh turned in 128.3% while Cote d’Ivoire nailed down a 122.7% gain. The index’s worst performer, Estonia, plunged -14.2%.

Clearly with a range like that, so-called frontier markets aren’t for everybody especially since they’ve gotten so expensive as more money has flowed into them. Data shows that many are trading at Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios that range from a high of nearly 100 for Vietnam to a “mere” 35.9 in Slovenia.

Still, even at these valuations, we can make the case that higher commodity prices will allow these markets to grow for years to come – especially given that they are starting from such a small base.

Which makes them a logical choice for adventurous investors who want to get in before they become hot on the country club cocktail circuit.

Oil Companies Profit from Sulfuric-Acid Market Boom

Contrarian Profits — Thu, 29 May 2008 17:07:48 +0000

The sulfuric-acid market is booming and oil companies are reaping the rewards.

According to the London Times, the price of sulfur has risen from $50 to $500 a ton in under a year. More from this report:

“Shell is one of the most-efficient producers of sulphur,” Barry Clarke, a sulphur market analyst for Pentasul, said. Shell produces about 3.5 million tonnes of sulphur, much of it from its Canadian oil sands business, and its cost, Mr Clarke reckons, is merely the rail freight cost of getting the sulphur to a port, about $25 a tonne.

Mr Clarke agrees that sulphur, once a burden, could earn the oil industry billions this year. “It’s going to show up in the earnings of companies,” he said. The price is expected to rise further with spot cargoes changing hands for as much as $700 a tonne. Demand for metals is also keeping sulphur bubbling, as sulphuric acid is used in the mining industry to leech metal from ore.

“The biofuel boom has kicked off a big increase in the demand for sulfuric acid,” says Chris Mayer in The Daily Reckoning.

“In fact, some 60% of the sulfuric acid ends up in agriculture. The surge in ethanol production is a double whammy on sulfuric acid. First, all that corn needs fertilizers. And second, the ethanol facilities themselves also use sulfuric acid in their own processing. A typical ethanol facility requires 2,000-4,000 tons of sulfuric acid per year.

“Then there is that great demand pull from China and India. Traditionally, these two countries produced what they needed. But now their own rapid industrialization has turned the tables. They’ve switched from being exporters to importers of sulfuric acid.”

Read on to find the only “pure play” on sulfuric acid spot prices — a little-known company that’s one of the world’s largest suppliers of sulfuric acid.

Follow T. Boone’s Oil Pickings!

Ann Sosnowski — Thu, 29 May 2008 16:41:05 +0000

T. Boone Pickens is a major oil guy. He became successful buying up oil and gas companies and trading energy for his fund, BP Capital. And now he’s forecasting $150 oil.

Not only is he forecasting higher and higher prices for black gold, but he’s also putting money into new oil companies.

According to the 13F Disbursement Plan, Pickens just bought Sandridge Energy Inc. (SD:NYSE) in the first quarter of 2008. It just went public in late 2007.

So far, it’s been on a solid run, returning an 83% gain in only four months. But it’s still cheaper than the major oil companies like BP and Exxon Mobil.

Sandridge is based in Oklahoma. It looks for natural gas and oil reserves in Texas and drills for other companies. It also provides CO2 to third-party oil recovery projects.

After an initial buy in the first quarter of 2008, I anticipate Pickens buying more and more of this oil company at its still low price of $55 per share. The safest way to invest in oil is to follow Pickens’ picks… especially since this expert says oil is going to $150, far from its current level near $130 per barrel.

Ann Sosnowski

Editor, Safe Haven Investor

U.S. Government Unlocks $35 Billion in “Free Money” Payouts to American Citizens!

The “13F Disbursement Plan” offers you a fantastic wealth-building opportunity with very little risk. It’s safe, simple and, best of all, generates lots of income.

Read on and learn how you can get your share of “free money”…

Source: Follow T. Boone’s Oil Pickings!

Crisis Trader Is Always Ahead of the Game…

Christian DeHaemer — Wed, 28 May 2008 21:14:32 +0000

On May 20, 2008, I put out a buy on this alternative energy company. Today, this company got its first Wall Street analysts’ upgrade in more than two years with a $3 price target.

Crisis Trader consistently buys stocks before they are “discovered,” and as a result we make the largest gains. Last week we banked 221% in seven trading days. This week we are up 181% on another one. As you can see by the chart, our alternative energy company is only up 20%.

There’s still time to get in, but you’d better act fast. Join us today and I’ll give you my free report on the most undervalued North African energy play that sells directly to Europe…

Kind regards,

Christian DeHaemer

Editor, Crisis Trader

Blistering Gains in No Time Flat…Get In By May 31 and You Could Pocket $53,330

Over the last few years, tiny oil and gas companies have been an absolute breeding ground for making stock market millionaires.

Right now, a little-known $3 Canadian wildcatter is at the center of a global power struggle that could launch its share price into the stratosphere.

Thanks to an exclusive deal with the Algerian government, this tiny company could double by August 2008.

In the long run, you could make 37 times your money… maybe a whole lot more.

Source: Crisis Trader Is Always Ahead of the Game…

Why You Should Stay Away From the Alternative Investment Market

Merryn Somerset Webb — Wed, 28 May 2008 15:57:34 +0000

Around this time last year, the nation’s investment experts all started to point out how cheap the big FTSE 100 stocks looked and to suggest that we all switched out of smaller companies and into blue chips.

It wouldn’t have been a bad idea. In the last year, the junior Alternative Investment Market (Aim) index has fallen around 14 per cent while the FTSE 100 is down only 6.5 per cent. Admittedly, you’d have been better off in cash – you’d have made 5 per cent there. But, relatively speaking, at least the experts were right.

Now, however, it’s all the other way around. If you are looking for fundamentally cheap investments, you need to be looking at Aim where the average price-earnings (p/e) ratio has fallen to a mere 6.3 times.

There are 1,600 companies listed on this market, so there are obviously huge variations within this – miners and oil companies trading on p/e ratios of 20-plus and the odd outlier, such as fashion super-success ASOS (LON:ASC), trading on 40 times. Even so, talk to a small-cap fund manager of any kind, and he’ll be quick to point to a pile of favourite stocks all throwing off cash yet selling in the market for the bargain prices of 4r or 5 times earnings.

One example is AT Communications (LON:ATCG), a perfectly respectable telecoms company on a historic p/e of 5 times and a prospective p/e for 2008 of a mere 4.75 times.

So just why are there so many apparent bargains about? One answer might be, tax.

Until recently, capital gains on Aim-listed stocks were taxed at only 25% of the normal rate for higher-rate taxpayers, as long as you held the stocks for two years – so an effective rate of 25% of 40%, which is 10%. Now, however, you pay 18%, just like anyone investing anywhere else.

Then there is inheritance tax to consider. Certain Aim stocks are immune from inheritance tax. But now that couples are able to leave their nil-rate bands to each other (automatically combining their tax- free allowances) perhaps fewer people feel the need to bother with the kind of estate planning that Aim provides.

Of course, there is – as there should be – more to this than just tax. There’s also general risk-aversion. Smaller companies tend to be more geared to the domestic economy than larger multinational companies so, when things turn down, their shares inevitably suffer more than most.

And things are turning down in the UK – big time. The housing market gets worse by the day; there are signs unemployment is about to take a turn for the worse as jobs in construction and retail start to go; oil prices have now started to “melt up” – even more quickly than I suggested they would – and rising inflation means no interest rate cuts.

However, an annual survey of the market from Baker Tilly and Faegre & Benson, entitled “Taking Aim”, throws another kind of light on the way things have changed in the market.

Back in 2005, there were 335 initial public offerings (IPOs) on Aim, raising an average of £17m each. In 2007, there were 82, but the average amount raised was a massive £231m. In some ways, this might look like a good thing – more money was raised in total. But for real smaller companies it might not be.

Why? It suggests, says John Glencross of Calculus Capital, that the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the companies that work as brokers to Aim-listed companies are more interested in marketing Aim as a home “to foreign companies seeking an international listing, where the amounts involved are very large, than to growing UK companies which typically want under £10m”. A number of last year’s listings were also large funds of one sort or another, or property-related companies.

For these overseas companies, and the brokers getting paid for bringing them to the market, Aim also presents an opportunity for a form of regulatory arbitrage. Its relatively light regulation and less-than-arduous listing requirements make it an easier place to get a fundraising away – and earn those commissions.

This makes sense, of course, in that both the LSE and the brokers are looking to make money, and you make more from big listings and secondary fundraisings than small. But it does make it hard for small companies to get their hands on funding.

This might be the key to the low-looking valuations. Right now, a small company, however good, doesn’t really have anywhere to go to get money to expand. The banks are closed or upping their rates; the debt markets have never been small-cap friendly; and if they only want a few million, Aim isn’t suiting them very well either.

At the same time, liquidity has disappeared from the market itself. Spreads are wide and volumes are low. So buying and selling stakes in listed companies has become little easier than buying and selling in private companies.

The combination of these two factors means that, right now, being listed on Aim isn’t really all that different to being a private company.

And what do private buyers pay for private companies? It depends on all sorts of issues but, in general, the answer is around five times profits. Look at it like this and maybe the seemingly cheap stocks rattling around Aim aren’t so cheap after all.

It would be nice if there were something to be done about all this – small companies are incredibly important to the UK economy. But, as it probably won’t be, I think we can expect the sector to continue to be starved of both funding and investor interest. Both are compelling reasons not to leap in just yet.

Source: Why You Should Stay Away From the Alternative Investment Market

Congress Beats Up On Oil Execs

Byron King — Sat, 24 May 2008 12:03:16 +0000

Rotten, no-good Members-of-Congress. In America, the Senators haul oil executives in front of Congress to insult and belittle them.

In Russia, they elect the former president of Gazprom as president of the country.

Hmmm… Russia or the USA… Which country does not have an “energy crisis?”

“People we represent are hurting,” says Sen. Leahy of Vermont to the oil company executives. “The companies you represent are profiting.”

Yeah? So what? Oil companies make about 4-cents per gallon gas. The federal govt makes at least 18-cents, and state govts make much more than that. Besides, most oil companies are actually “losing” money on downstream operations. The refining margins just plain suck right now.

And whose fault is it that people “are hurting?” People in the US have made several generations of bad choices in energy policy, to include electing guys like Patrick Leahy to the US Senate. The Patrick Leahys of the world have never done a darn thing to increase the energy supply of this country. They just sit back, pass legislation to lock up areas the size of Maine — as well as 85% of the US Outer Continental Shelf — and then take potshots at the people who put gas into the fuel tanks of America.

Really, Senator… Would you trade the management team of Chevron or Exxon for the mangers of Pemex? You want gas lines? Try that, genius.

Here is the scoop, if you missed the story.

Until we meet again

Byron King

Note: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey & Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources sign up here!

Source: Congress Beats Up On Oil Execs…