Many of you were not even born the last time the world discovered a huge elephant oil field. Think about all the elephant fields in the world that you know about. Alaskan oil fields are in decline; Mexican oil fields are in rapid decline; the North Sea is in decline. The UK has been exporting oil for 27 years now. Within the decade, the UK is going to be a major importer of oil again. Indonesia is a member of OPEC. OPEC stands for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Indonesia is going to get thrown out because they no longer export oil, they are now net importers of oil. Malaysia has been one of the great exporting countries in the world for decades. Within the decade, Malaysia is going to be importing oil. 10 years ago, China was one of the major exporters of oil, now they are the 2nd largest importer of oil in the world. Oil fields deplete, mines depletes. This is the way the world’s been working for a few thousand years and it will always work this way. So supply has been going down for 25 years.

Meanwhile, you know what’s happening to demand. Asia’s been booming. There are three billion people in Asia. America’s growing. Most of the world has been growing for the last 25 years. So supply has gone down and demand has gone up for 25 years. That’s called a bull market.

One of the things you’ll find if you go back and do your research is that whenever stocks have done well, such as the 1980s and 90s, commodities have done badly. But conversely, you find that whenever commodities have done well, such as the 1970s, stocks have done poorly. I have a theory as to why this always works, but it doesn’t matter about my theory. The fact is that it always works this way and it’s working this way now.

So before I set off to my second trip around the world, I came to the conclusion that the bear market in commodities was coming to and end. So I started a commodities index fund. [Editor's note: An ETN based on the Rogers International Commodity Index trades on the AMEX under the symbol: RJI.] This is an index fund. I do not manage it. It’s a basket of commodities we put in the corner. If it goes up we make money; if it goes down we lose money. But since Aug 1st 1998, when the fund started, it is up 471%.

I [mention this index] to show you that the commodity bull market is not something that will happen someday. It’s in process right now, and it’s going to go on for years to come, because supply and demand are out of balance. And by the time we get to the end of the bull market, commodities will go through the roof. There will be setbacks along the way. I don’t know when or why, but I know they are coming, cause markets always work that way. Commodities have done 15 times better than stocks in this decade and they’re going to continue that [trend].

You remember my little girls. My 5-year old never owns stocks or bonds; she only owns commodities. She’s very happy owning commodities. She doesn’t care about stocks and bonds, but she knows about gold. I assure you, she knows about gold.

Some of you probably diversify, or believe in diversification. I do not diversify; I am not a fan of diversification. This is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves. But you’re not ever going to get rich diversifying. I assure you. But if you DO diversify, commodities are the best anchor because they are not going to do what the rest of your assets are going to do.

I will give you one brief case study about oil, because it’s one of the most important commodities. Some of you know that oil in Saudi Arabia is owned by a company called ARAMCO. It was nationalized in the 70s. They threw out BP and Shell and Exxon. But the last Western company to leave did an audit [of Saudi oil reserves] and came to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia had 245 billion barrels of oil. Then in 1980, after 10 years, Saudi Arabia suddenly announced that it had 260 billion barrels of oil. Every year since 1988 – 20 years in a row – Saudi Arabia has announced, “We have 260 billion barrels of oil.”

It is the damndest thing. 20 years; it never goes up; it never goes down, and they have produced 67 billion barrel of oil in this period of time. When nuts like me go to Saudi, we ask, “How can this be? How can it be that they always have 260 billion barrel of oil?” (By the way, last year they said they have 261 billion barrel of oil). And the Saudis say, “You either believe us or you don’t,” and that’s the end of the conversation.

I have never been to the Saudi oil fields, and even if I had, I wouldn’t know what I was looking at. But I do know something is wrong. I know that every oil country in the world has a reserve problem, except Saudi Arabia of course. I know that every oil company in the world has declining reserves. So I know that unless someone discovers a lot of oil quickly, the surprise to most people is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes eventually. That is the supply side. Let’s look at the demand side.

The Indians use 120th as much oil as their neighbors in Japan and Korea use. The Chinese use 1/10th as much per capita. There’s 2.3 billion people in India and China alone. Well, the Indians are going to get more electricity. The Indians are going to get motor scooters. They are going to start using more energy, so are the Chinese. But if the Indians just doubled the amount of oil used per capita, they would still use only 1/10th of what the Koreans use. If the Chinese doubled their oil use, they would still be using only 1/5th what the Japanese and the Koreans are using. So you can see what kind of pressures there are on the demand side for oil and energy, at a time of terrible stress on the supply side. These are simple things.

So I would urge you are to take a lesson from my little girls. My little girls are learning Chinese. My little girls are getting out of the US dollar. My little girls own a lot of commodities. I would urge you to do the same.

The farms are well tended, and the agricultural productivity is awe inspiring. There are wind farms up, and going up, on many a hillside. Power lines crisscross the landscape. There are dams and impoundments on many of the rivers. And the trains of the Canadian Pacific Railway are rolling in both directions, hauling grain, ag products, coal, phosphate and so much else.

North Dakota Oil Rush

In Saskatchewan and North Dakota, the big story is the Bakken Shale formation. I’ve seen over a dozen working rigs and dozens of brand-new oil wells. The pump jacks are still in the break-in period. Heck, the paint on some of them is still drying.

[Stories like this are also popping up.]

It’s a mixture of old and new. There are old farm buildings, and all of the traditional agricultural effort of the region. Right next to the buildings, you might see a new oil well. And in the distance, there might be a wind farm going up.

The highways are crowded with working trucks. Trucks are hauling pipe and equipment to well sites. The motels are crowded with oil field workers. In some small towns, real estate prices and rents are actually rising. People around here have seen nothing like it in many years.

Or if the trucks are not hauling drilling equipment, they are hauling agricultural products. Or there is farm equipment driving down the roads from one area to another. It’s all just plain busy.

At the customs station at Noonan, N.D., the U.S. agent told me that the traffic in energy-related commerce is just burning up the roads in both directions. There are simply not enough skilled workers. Some companies are poaching staff from others.

At the same time, I can almost feel the slowdown that is afflicting the North American energy sector. Costs for everything have risen too far, too fast. Now the whole sector is starting to feel the pinch.

Couple the rising costs with a serious difficulty in obtaining financing. The banks have cut back on lending, even to the best of energy projects. It’s not for lack of investment merit of the energy projects. It’s because the banks are struggling with their own solvency.

So the mess in the financial sector has infected the rest of the economy. Just when the U.S. and Canada need to be investing in energy projects, the financial system is letting us down.

It reminds me of what I heard from an old rancher a long time ago: “Out here in the prairies, we farmers work hard and raise the cows. Back East on Wall Street, they milk us farmers.”

I’ll be out in the field for the next few days, looking at other points of energy and geological interest. All of this travel helps my perspective in coming up with better advice for you, dear reader.

Until we meet again…

Byron W. King

Source: North Dakota Oil Is “Burning Up The Roads”

While BP was quick to write the summons off as a “routine procedural matter,” analysts see it as yet another attempt to drive BP from the country’s treasured energy sector.

A source close to the situation told Reuters that the investigation will take place next week.

“The questioning was planned for this week, but for some reason they have already postponed it to early next week,” the source said.

The timing of the summons is precarious in that it comes just a week after BP’s Russian partners demanded Dudley’s removal – an overture BP has rebuffed citing Dudley’s strong performance.

However, Mikhail Fridman, Vikto Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik lead a group of billionaire shareholders who have accused Dudley of favoring the British company’s interest. Dudley worked at BP before assuming his current position as the head of TNK-BP in 2003.

The summons also follows a series of other setbacks that have bedeviled the venture. Earlier this year, 78 Federal Security Service (FSB) officers raided the Moscow offices of BP and TNK-BP. The raid resulted in the arrest of one TNK-BP employee and his brother, who will both face charges of industrial espionage.

Soon after the raid, the Natural Resources ministry said it would check TNK-BP’s largest oil field for environmental violations and the Interior Ministry accused the company of breaking visa rules, a charge that left some BP staff stranded outside the country.

Russia’s history of wrangling control of oil projects from foreign oil majors has many analysts anticipating BP will have its role reduced to that of a minority shareholder.

“We are all worried there is going to be some political maneuvering in order to relieve BP of the stake,” Colin Morton, a fund manager at Rensburg Fund Management who owns BP shares, recently told Reuters.

Two years ago, OAO Yukos Oil Co., formerly one of the world’s largest private oil companies, went out of business after Russia’s Federal Tax Service demanded the payment of $30 billion in back taxes.

Soon after, Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A, RDS.B) was forced to relinquish control of its Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project to OAO Gazprom for $7.45 billion when the Russian government threatened to block investment plans by canceling building permits on environmental grounds.

And just last year, TNK-BP was talked into selling its 62.8% stake in one of the world’s largest gas fields, the Kovytkta field, to Gazprom, after Russian authorities threatened to revoke the company’s license to develop it.

So it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that TNK-BP, Russia’s third-largest oil producer, could be Gazprom’s next takeover target. It’s also reasonable to expect that Gazprom may want more than to simply replace the Russian oligarchs as junior partners in the venture.

RBK Daily recently reported that Gazprom is seeking a 1% stake in the joint venture from BP, while at the same time buying out TNK-BP’s three Russian shareholders, thereby giving the state monopoly a controlling stake in TNK-BP.

Meanwhile, a source close to BP told the Wall Street Journal, that the company believes the Russian shareholders are putting pressure on Dudley in attempt to strengthen their hand in negotiations with a state-owned company like Gazprom. The Russian shareholders want to rein in long-term investments, such as enhanced oil recovery, health and safety, and privileged dividends, because they are aiming to sell their share to a state-run firm, the source told the paper.

BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward recently arrived in Moscow in part to attend the annual shareholders’ meeting of Russia’s OAO Rosneft, the country’s largest oil firm of which BP is a minority shareholder, Reuters reported.

“BP is committed to Russia,” Hayward said addressing the meeting. “Russia, alongside the Middle East, is one of the world’s great hydrocarbon provinces. Russia is a great nation in the process of economic transformation.”

While BP may remain committed to Russia, however, it doesn’t seem as though Russia is equally committed to BP. And so far, the process of undermining foreign oil companies and surreptitiously consolidating Russia’s energy sector under state control has not ended with Vladimir Putin’s presidency.

“This is exactly the kind of issue that is making Medvedev’s life so difficult as he tries to rebrand Russia as an attractive investment location,” Chris Weafer, chief strategist Moscow-based investment bank OAO UralSib, told Reuters. “The fate of TNK-BP is a major test for how the government vies the investment climate.”

Source: BP Exec Questioned in Corporate Tax Probe as Russia Reclaims its Energy Sector