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		<title>The Dollar, the Euro, and being Bullish on Gold</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-dollar-the-euro-and-being-bullish-on-gold/21107</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:22:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lord William Rees-Mogg</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The dollar nevertheless remains the world’s leading reserve currency, with the euro in second place. Investors are naturally anxious to protect themselves against markets, including currency markets, which have shown such a high degree of volatility. 

The Chinese, who have the greatest number of dollars in their currency reserves, have already suffered substantial losses. 

In what amounts to a crisis of the dollar, the euro is in second place as a reserve currency, but there are potential threats to the future of the euro, due to the weak productivity of the Mediterranean economies.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lord William Rees-Mogg, driving force behind the biweekly Fleet Street Invest newlsetter, analyzes the current state of the dollar, the euro and the future of gold &#8211; and why it will always be an attractive, tangible asset.</p>
<p>Lord William Rees-Mogg (<a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/">Fleet Street Invest UK</a>):<br />
In the last six months there has been a rebound of 50% in the great majority of world stock markets. </p>
<p>There has also been a comparable rebound in the price of oil, with West Texas oil rising very close to $80 a barrel. In the oil market there has been heavy two-way trading in options. There could be a sharp spike in the oil price if speculators have to cover their positions.</p>
<p>At the same time the US dollar has remained weak, and now stands at $1.4886 to the euro and $1.66628 to the pound. This is close to a 14-month low on a trade-weighted basis. The poor performance of the dollar reflects the low US interest rates and the twin US fiscal and trade deficits.</p>
<p><strong>The demise of the dollar </strong></p>
<p>The dollar nevertheless remains the world’s leading reserve currency, with the euro in second place. Investors are naturally anxious to protect themselves against markets, including currency markets, which have shown such a high degree of volatility. </p>
<p>The Chinese, who have the greatest number of dollars in their currency reserves, have already suffered substantial losses. </p>
<p>In what amounts to a crisis of the dollar, the euro is in second place as a reserve currency, but there are potential threats to the future of the euro, due to the weak productivity of the Mediterranean economies. There is a big stretch in productivity growth between the German and the Southern European regions.</p>
<p>The fall in the dollar against other currencies includes a devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold, which now seems to have stabilized at a dollar price of $1,050 an ounce. </p>
<p>The circumstances do indeed appear to be uniquely favourable to gold. </p>
<p>Interest rates and therefore carrying costs are exceptionally low. The dollar is exceptionally weak. The technical market position is strong, including good demand for gold in terms of jewellery. The oil price – which is often linked to gold – is rising. Those who believe that oil is due for a further rise to $100 a barrel are likely also to be confident about holding a proportion of their investment . . .<br />
Click <a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/gold/gold-price/gold-dollar-investors-confidence-54423.html">here</a> to read the rest of Lord Rees-Mogg&#8217;s article at <a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/">Fleet Street Invest UK</a>.</p>
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		<title>Oil Prices Due for a Short-Term Setback, Although Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-prices-due-for-a-short-term-setback-although-long-term-outlook-remains-bullish/18735</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:01:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Rally]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>While the long-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, don’t be surprised to see a near-term correction. After tumbling to a low of $33.98 a barrel on Feb. 12, crude oil more than doubled in price, soaring to $69.82 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nasdaq: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACME" target="_blank">CME</a>) – before tumbling nearly 4% on Thursday on a worse-than-expected jobs report.</p>
<p>Indeed, <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> predicted precisely that kind of a run-up for crude oil, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/29/oil-2009/" target="_blank">first in January</a> and then <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/16/opec-oil-prices/" target="_blank">again on April 16</a>.</p>
<p>As a basis for those previous analyses of the oil market, we cited the declining value of the U.S. dollar, falling production, and the possibility that demand for oil would soar as the global economy emerges from the worst financial crisis since World War II. And those factors&#8230;</p></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>While the long-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, don’t be surprised to see a near-term correction. After tumbling to a low of $33.98 a barrel on Feb. 12, crude oil more than doubled in price, soaring to $69.82 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nasdaq: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACME" target="_blank">CME</a>) – before tumbling nearly 4% on Thursday on a worse-than-expected jobs report.</p>
<p>Indeed, <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> predicted precisely that kind of a run-up for crude oil, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/29/oil-2009/" target="_blank">first in January</a> and then <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/16/opec-oil-prices/" target="_blank">again on April 16</a>.</p>
<p>As a basis for those previous analyses of the oil market, we cited the declining value of the U.S. dollar, falling production, and the possibility that demand for oil would soar as the global economy emerges from the worst financial crisis since World War II. And those factors continue to suggest that the price of oil will rise over the long-term.</p>
<p>However, while we still believe the long-term outlook for oil prices is bullish, it’s important to note that the recent oil price rally is not supported by supply/demand fundamentals. It is the result of a shift in market sentiment and a corresponding reversal in U.S. stocks, not a material change in the global economy.</p>
<p>And because the five-month rally has proceeded at an exceptionally quick pace, it’s made prices more volatile. That means prices could experience a significant correction in the short-term.</p>
<p>So here’s what you need to know as we approach a major inflection point for one of the world’s most volatile commodities.</p>
<h3>What to Make of Oil’s Recent Rally</h3>
<p>Prior to <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-extend-pullback-below-70?siteid=bnbh" target="_blank">Thursday’s stumble</a>, oil prices had soared about 106% since sliding below $34 a barrel in February. The main reason for this jump has been the so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery led investors to believe oil was oversold and that the global economy will return to growth much sooner than originally predicted.</p>
<p>This is highlighted by the fact that the U.S. stock market has experienced an almost simultaneous recovery. <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI" target="_blank">The Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> is up about 5% from February, and 30% from mid-March. Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX" target="_blank">Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index</a> has climbed about 11% since Feb. 12 and is up more than 30% from its March lows.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/16/news/economy/oil_on_rise_again.fortune/index.htm?section=money_markets" target="_blank">Historically, equities have been a leading indicator of economic growth and commodities have been a coincident indicator</a>,” Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ms" target="_blank">MS</a>), told<strong><em>CNNMoney.com.</em></strong> “Right now, you’re seeing commodities and equities move up together as money comes back in at the same time.”</p>
<p>However, there are other factors at work, including the declining value of the U.S. dollar and a shift in the futures market.</p>
<p>Because oil is priced in dollars, any decline in value of the U.S. currency drives crude oil prices higher.   During last year’s huge run-up in oil prices, the U.S. dollar fell to a record low of $1.59 against the euro, though it subsequently rebounded. Since oil began its current rally on Feb. 12, the dollar has fallen about 10%, declining to about $1.40 against the euro.</p>
<p>Additionally, many speculators reversed their positions on oil from short to long, and that can also pull prices higher.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.moneymorning.com/images2/TurningTide.gif" border="0" alt="" width="386" height="429" /></p>
<p>“Prospects for equity markets and the global economy, backed up by exchange rate fluctuations, expectations about future oil market tightness, and, by inference, a shift of money into or out of futures markets can all influence short-term prices,” the <a href="http://www.iea.org/" target="_blank">International Energy Agency</a> (IEA) said in its June <strong><em>Oil Market Report</em></strong>. “Indeed, it is tempting to conclude that the shift in [New York Mercantile Exchange] WTI noncommercial positions from a net 11,000 short in early May to 40,000 net long a month later is sufficient explanation for the surge in prices” of more than 20% during May and into early June.</p>
<p>On top of that, some <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_25/b4136031531310.htm?chan=rss_topEmailedStories_ssi_5" target="_blank">$3.8 billion has flowed into oil-and-gas exchange traded funds (ETFs) this year</a>, compared with $1.4 billion in the first half of 2008, Goran Trapp, head of global oil trading at Morgan Stanley, told<strong><em>BusinessWeek</em></strong>.</p>
<p>“Considering that supply seems ample and demand is weak, the fact that oil is going up looks kind of weird,” Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=db" target="_blank">DB</a>), told <strong><em>CNN</em></strong>. “But those factors are being overwhelmed by a huge sigh of relief that we’re not going to have the Great Depression. A lot of money is coming out of mattresses.”</p>
<p>But while investors’ perceptions of the economic recovery – and, by extension, the oil market – have changed, the underlying supply and demand fundamentals have not. There is still a glut of oil on the market and not enough demand to soak it up.<br />
Investors seemed to undergo a min-epiphany of that reality on Thursday, when <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/02/june-unemployment-rate/" target="_blank">disappointing jobless numbers</a> raised concern “about the strength and timing of a recovery,” James Williams, an economist at energy-research firm WTRG Economics, told <strong><em>MarketWatch.com</em></strong>.</p>
<p>August crude futures dropped $2.58 a barrel, or 3.7%, to settle at $66.73, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-extend-pullback-below-70?siteid=bnbh" target="_blank">the lowest closing level for a front-month contract since June 3</a>,<strong><em>MarketWatch</em></strong> said.<br />
That development supports the conclusions put forth in some recent research.</p>
<p>In its five-year forecast for the worldwide oil market, the IEA last week cut its five-year forecast for global crude demand and predicted that consumption won’t rebound to last year’s levels until 2012 – at the earliest.</p>
<p>“The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in its <strong><em>Medium-Term Oil Market Report</em></strong>. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.”</p>
<p>The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the agency, world oil demand would grow at an average annual rate of 0.6%, or 540,000 bpd, annually over the 2008 to 2014 period, reaching 89 million barrels a day by 2014.</p>
<p>Those estimates are based on the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm" target="_blank">International Monetary Fund</a> (IMF) forecast for global economic growth of about 5% a year between 2012 and 2014. In the IEA’s “lower GDP scenario,” in which the global economy expands by 3% a year, demand won’t reach 2008 levels until 2014.</p>
<p>With oil demand not expected to reach 2008 levels for another three years at least, the fact that oil prices are climbing more rapidly than they did in last year – when demand was high, supplies were tight, and the U.S. dollar was trading at significantly lower levels than it is today – is a red flag for many analysts.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.moneymorning.com/images2/RunawayRally.gif" border="0" alt="" width="386" height="388" /></p>
<p>“<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124423136163589869.html" target="_blank">There may be enough momentum to carry us up to just $72.50 [a barrel]</a>, but then I think the correction is going to be just that dramatic,” Guy Gleichmann, president of the <a href="http://www.usigcorp.com/company-profile.html" target="_blank">United Strategic Investors Group</a>, told <strong><em>The Wall Street Journal</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Additionally, a continued rise in oil prices could threaten the economic recovery by raising production costs and hurting consumers at the pumps.</p>
<p>Oil prices between $30 and $40 per barrel were like an “<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090623-708095.html" target="_blank">additional stimulus package</a>,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, said last month. “But now this stimulus package is losing its strength and it will be definitely a problem for the global economy if prices continue to rise.”</p>
<p>Prices at above $70 a barrel “may well strangle the economic recovery,” Birol said.</p>
<p>If that’s true, oil prices, should they continue to rise, would only be setting themselves up for a bigger tumble when the economy slips back into recession later in the year.</p>
<h3>Still Bullish Long-Term</h3>
<p>While the short-term outlook for oil remains murky, if not bearish, the long-term outlook for crude is still strong, thanks to the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the probability that demand will eventually return.</p>
<p>In fact, the IEA estimates that oil demand will strengthen in India and Saudi Arabia this year, despite a 3% decline in global consumption.</p>
<p>And China, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/01/28/china-commodities/" target="_blank">which has been using low commodities prices to stock up on resources</a>, plans to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&amp;sid=aqC60PRYO.Bw" target="_blank">increase strategic crude oil reserves by 160%</a> to 270 million barrels during the next five years. Citing an unidentified official from China’s National Energy Administration,<strong><em> Nikkei English News</em></strong> said that Beijing would spend $4.39 billion (30 billion yuan) on stockpiling facilities with a capacity to hold 169 million barrels of crude oil.</p>
<p>“The wild card is really the Chinese,” said <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “Don’t forget the Chinese are trying to<a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/05/27/yuan-dominant-global-currency/" target="_blank">diversify away from the dollar</a>, and there are only two ‘non-currency currencies’ on the planet: gold and oil.”</p>
<p>And with the expansive monetary policy being employed by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the value of the dollar seems destined to retest the lows it reached in 2008.</p>
<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark lending rate to a range of 0.0% to 0.25%, and the central bank plans to purchase up to $300 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury securities and $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities as it pursues a policy of quantitative easing.</p>
<p>“Our forecast has been that oil will be at $100 in 2015 and it could happen faster if the economy recovers,” Deutsche Bank’s Sieminski told<strong><em>CNN</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=gs" target="_blank">GS</a>) raised its 2009 oil price forecast to $85 a barrel from $65 and said prices would reach $95 a barrel in 2010. Other analysts agree.</p>
<p>J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=jpm" target="_blank">JPM</a>) lifted its forecast for the average price of oil in 2009 to $55.63 a barrel from $49.38, though the investment bank noted “global demand and inventory levels look horrendous.”</p>
<p>“We’re concerned about oil prices rising so rapidly in the near-term,” Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley, told<strong><em>CNN</em></strong>. “But the bet in the long-term is one way, and that’s just up.”</p>
<p>Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/06/oil-prices-outlook/">Oil Prices Due for a Short-Term Setback, Although Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish</a></p>
<p><strong><em>Editor&#8217;s Note: </em><em>This oil preview is the latest installment of a new Money Morning series that will make economic projections for key U.S. sectors for the last half of 2009. As part of that series, look for forecasts for housing, energy, U.S. stocks and the emerging markets</em></strong><em>.</em></div>
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		<title>The Six Ways to Play Canada’s Oil Sector</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 13:27:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Martin Hutchinson</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>With oil finally trading back above the $50-a-barrel level, it’s time to recognize that crude prices are probably not going to remain low for very long, and may end up fluctuating in the $50-$80 range &#8211; regardless of what happens to the prices of other commodities.</p>
<p>After all, the economies in both China and India are apparently continuing to grow at a fairly rapid pace, and those countries’ demand for transportation and other forms of energy are thus likely to keep pace. For some minerals, the period of high prices from 2005 to 2008 has produced a surplus. But no such effect has been seen in the oil market, as large new discoveries are hard to find.</p>
<p>If we’ve learned anything in&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With oil finally trading back above the $50-a-barrel level, it’s time to recognize that crude prices are probably not going to remain low for very long, and may end up fluctuating in the $50-$80 range &#8211; regardless of what happens to the prices of other commodities.</p>
<p>After all, the economies in both China and India are apparently continuing to grow at a fairly rapid pace, and those countries’ demand for transportation and other forms of energy are thus likely to keep pace. For some minerals, the period of high prices from 2005 to 2008 has produced a surplus. But no such effect has been seen in the oil market, as large new discoveries are hard to find.</p>
<p>If we’ve learned anything in the last few years, it’s that political risk is very important in oil investments. It’s not just a question of outright nationalization &#8211; as is true in Venezuela. Other greedy countries, like Nigeria, boosted the royalties payable when oil prices were high, and have shown little willingness to reduce them again now that they have declined.</p>
<p>Hence, it’s once again time to look at investments in the one important energy source whose friendliness to the United States and decent quality of governance can be assured.</p>
<p>I’m speaking, of course, about  Canada.</p>
<p>Canadian oil-and-gas investments  are attractive for three reasons.</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Canada’s       political stability makes it a buffer against turmoil from less-stable oil       sources.</li>
<li>The country’s conventional oil-and-gas sources add substantial capacity at reasonable prices to U.S. domestic oil production; these sources are profitable at almost any plausible oil price.</li>
<li>And       Canada’s tar sands in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Tar_Sands">Athabasca</a> region represent a potential source of oil, with approximately 1.6 trillion barrels of theoretically recoverable reserves. That’s potentially larger than the Middle East, but with two major problems: The cost of production is high and the environmental impact could be substantial.</li>
</ul>
<p>That last point &#8211; and the two major problems it identifies &#8211; is key. At low oil prices, both factors make tar sands problematic; it is politically more difficult to overcome environmentalist objections if secure oil sources do not appear a priority. However, at high prices, environmentalist problems go away, although they may add to extraction costs. However, if prices escalate rapidly, extraction costs also tend to escalate, so oil-shale-producers reaped less of a bonanza than they might have in 2007-2008.</p>
<p>Now that oil prices have  stabilized, the cost increase has slowed, so that (for example) Suncor Energy  Inc.’s (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:SU">SU</a>) tar-sands-production costs in this year’s first quarter rose only 6% from the previous year, hitting $28 per barrel. Since oil prices are currently around $58 a barrel, that leaves plenty of profit margin.</p>
<p>The Canadian oil business is still rather more entrepreneurial than the international majors &#8211; Calgary is that kind of place. I remember an instance when I was working as a banker back in the 1980s. I’d spent the weekend in New York with my girlfriend, and then turned up for a scheduled Monday lunch with some oilmen at the <a href="http://www.ranchmensclub.com/">Ranchmen’s Club</a>. Not thinking, I’d ordered my normal urban cocktail, an Apricot Sour. This was quite rightly treated with great derision, and I was firmly presented with a <a href="http://drink-recipe.us/tag/beef-bouillon/">bullshot</a> (vodka and beef bouillon) &#8211; in a pint beer mug!  Got the deal, I’m proud to say, but was pretty worthless for the rest of the day.</p>
<p>The message: Investing in Calgary oil is a little like dining at the Ranchmen’s Club; you have to have certain qualities of fortitude and stamina!</p>
<p>Canadian oil companies you might look at include the following (when looking at earnings, the first quarter of 2009 is a good guide; 2008 is all over the place because of the bizarre behavior of oil prices):</p>
<p><strong>Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.</strong> (<strong>NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=cnq">CNQ</a></strong>): Primarily a conventional oil producer, this company’s operations are centered on Western Canada, the North Sea and offshore West Africa (Gabon), though it is also building an oil sands plant north of Fort McMurray, Alberta. It is trading at about 14 times earnings when you strip out misguided risk management, and about 80% above book value. It’s over-leveraged, too. <strong>Conclusion</strong>: A decent  company, but pricey.</p>
<p><strong>EnCana Corp</strong>. (<strong>NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=eca">ECA</a></strong>): North America’s largest natural gas producer and conventional oil producer, with operations in Western Canada, offshore Nova Scotia and the Western United States. It is a leader in oil recovery through steam-assisted natural drainage. Based on first-quarter earnings, its Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is about 9, and its Price/Book (P/B) ratio is about 1.7. It has only moderate leverage. <strong>Conclusion</strong>:  This one looks like a decent value; it even pays a semi-respectable dividend,  yielding 2.8%.</p>
<p><strong>Imperial Oil</strong> <strong>Ltd. </strong>(<strong>NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=imo">IMO</a></strong>): Majority-owned by  ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=xom">XOM</a>).  Even though it’s now headquartered in Calgary, Imperial is the least  Calgary-ish of Canada’s oil majors. It owns 25% of <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?cid=6074100">Syncrude Canada Ltd</a>., the oldest tar sands project, and also explores for and produces conventional oil in Western Canada and in the offshore Atlantic provinces. Imperial also refines and markets petroleum, owning a chain of service stations and convenience stores, and produces petrochemicals. It experienced a sharp drop in first-quarter earnings, its P/E based on the lower first-quarter results is about 40, with the stock trading at four times book value. <strong>Conclusion</strong>:  Overpriced.</p>
<p><strong>Nexen Inc.</strong> (<strong>NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=nxy">NXY</a></strong>): The former Canadian  arm of Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AOXY">OXY</a>), it owns 7% of Syncrude and another (Long Lake) start-up tar sands project, and has oil producing operations in Yemen, the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Colombia and offshore West Africa. Its P/E is about 20 based on first-quarter results and it is very over-leveraged. <strong>Conclusion</strong>: Given the non-Canada risk,  not very attractive.</p>
<p><strong>Suncor Energy Inc</strong>. <strong>(NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:SU">SU</a>)</strong>: A major tar sands  play, Suncor has now agreed to merge with Petro Canada (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3APCZ">PCZ</a>), a deal that’s expected to close in the third quarter. Suncor also produces natural gas in Western Canada and operates refineries. Petro Canada has tar sands, natural gas, pipeline and retail operations. It is priced at about 30 times annualized first-quarter operating earnings, but oil prices are up about $10 since then (which should boost its earnings), and its tar sands production is ramping up. <strong>Conclusion</strong>:  At 2.3 times book value, with a respectable balance sheet, it’s a decent bet on  oil’s growth sector.</p>
<p><strong>Talisman Energy Inc</strong>. (<strong>NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=tlm">TLM</a></strong>): The former BP Canada  (NYSE ADR: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABP">BP</a>), it was spun off in 1992, grew through acquisitions, and now has a diversified portfolio of holdings. It’s active in Western Canada, the Western United States, the United Kingdom (including a wind-farm operation), Norway, Colombia, Peru, Algeria, Tunisia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia and Qatar. It has sold $2.5 billion worth of operations to raise cash. Talisman has a P/E ratio of about 8, based on its first quarter, or 11, based on continuing operations in that quarter. It has a P/B ratio of about 1.4, and only moderate leverage. <strong>Conclusion</strong>: An iffy company in terms of quality, but  cheap, and is thus worth a look.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/05/13/canada-oil/">The Six Ways to Play Canada’s Oil Sector</a></p>
<p><strong>[Editor's Note:</strong> When it comes to banking or global economics, there's literally no  one better than <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> Contributing Editor <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/contributors/" target="_blank">Martin  Hutchinson</a> - a former investment banker with more than a 25 years experience. Hutchinson has proven himself to be a market maven and he is currently offering investors an opportunity to <a href="http://partners.moneymorningaffiliates.com/z/256/CD15/">make $4.201 in cash in just 12 days</a>. You can also subscribe to Martin's new  investment service, <strong><em>The Permanent Wealth Investor,</em></strong> by<a href="http://partners.moneymorningaffiliates.com/z/256/CD15/">clicking here</a> .<strong>]</strong></p>
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		<title>Prepare To Buy These Two Hurricane-Hating Commodities</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/prepare-to-buy-these-two-hurricane-hating-commodities/15585</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/prepare-to-buy-these-two-hurricane-hating-commodities/15585#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:28:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Lowell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Sectors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lee Lowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Worldwide Financial Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Having etched out new lows a few months ago amid the worldwide financial crisis, many commodity sectors appear to be doing their best impression of planes hovering over a busy airport: In a holding pattern.</p>
<p>While long-term commodity prospects are dictated by supply and demand, weather factors and long-term fundamentals, the short-term outlook is sprinkled with volatility. Some commodities have hit levels not seen in some time, reinforcing a new trend of late: The relationship between commodities and the general stock market.</p>
<p>It hasn’t always been the case that commodities and stocks moved in the same direction, but nothing is immune to a price shock these days. And when one domino moves, it can take many others with it.</p>
<p>We don’t foresee much&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Having etched out new lows a few months ago amid the worldwide financial crisis, many commodity sectors appear to be doing their best impression of planes hovering over a busy airport: In a holding pattern.</p>
<p>While long-term commodity prospects are dictated by supply and demand, weather factors and long-term fundamentals, the short-term outlook is sprinkled with volatility. Some commodities have hit levels not seen in some time, reinforcing a new trend of late: The relationship between commodities and the general stock market.</p>
<p>It hasn’t always been the case that commodities and stocks moved in the same direction, but nothing is immune to a price shock these days. And when one domino moves, it can take many others with it.</p>
<p>We don’t foresee much change in this inter connected stocks-commodities relationship until all the recent government intervention takes a strong foothold.</p>
<p>So let’s turn to some commentary…<strong> </strong></p>
<h3>The Macroeconomic And Technical Outlook For Oil</h3>
<p>Over the past three weeks, we’ve seen crude oil futures trade in a wide range between $47 and $54 per barrel.</p>
<p>Macroeconomically, we still have the issue of dwindling worldwide demand versus over-supply. The OPEC oil cartel has tried to arrest the latter by cutting supplies recently, but this trend could keep a lid on prices for the time being.</p>
<p>Although many market participants don’t give much credit to OPEC these days in terms of following through on their commitments, the psychological impact of better days ahead due to the U.S. government intervention can cause quick pops to the upside.</p>
<p>Technically, the oil market has support at the $47.75 area, right around the 50-day moving average. And if the price can break out above $55 convincingly, we could see some clear sailing for oil, possibly up to the $70 per barrel range.</p>
<p>For now, expect to see crude oil trade in a large range between $30 and $60.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Macroeconomic And Technical Outlook For Oil" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/20090413oil.gif" alt="" width="569" height="304" /></p>
<h3>As Natural Gas Drifts Lower, Our Optimism Rises Higher</h3>
<p>The natural gas market keeps slowly eroding away to lower and lower levels.</p>
<p>Each week, we hear the Energy Administration Information report that that there’s an abundance of underground storage supplies of natural gas &#8211; and this, in combination with slack demand, is what’s keeping natgas heading south.</p>
<p>However, the lower this market gets, the greater the buying opportunity will be. We’ve been bullish on the natural gas market for a few months now, and although it’s moved against us recently, we continue to like it for the long-term &#8211; particularly with hurricane season around the corner.</p>
<p>I’ve consequently implemented a special options strategy in my <em><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/instant-money-trader">Instant Money Trader</a></em> service that enables investors to get into natural gas at even lower prices than current levels. For more information on how you can join in, click here to read a <a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/instant-money-trader">short guide</a> on the service.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="As Natural Gas Drifts Lower, Our Optimism Rises Higher" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/20090413natgas.gif" alt="" width="609" height="320" /></p>
<h3>Gold And Silver Nail Our Support Levels… And Bounce Higher</h3>
<p>In my column two weeks ago, I noted:</p>
<p><em>We don’t see the front-month gold futures (June contract) trading much below $870 an ounce after the current pull-back is over, and silver shouldn’t see anything much below $12 an ounce (May contract).</em></p>
<p>Right on cue, June gold futures tagged a low price of $865 an ounce last week and have since bounced off the very reliable 200-day moving average. The price jumped over $35 an ounce to hit $901 just this morning.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="June gold futures tagged a low price of $865 an ounce last week " src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/20090413gold.gif" alt="" width="601" height="311" /></p>
<p>It’s a similar story in the silver market. The metal tagged support just above the $12 per ounce level and has rebounded almost a full dollar to its current level of $12.80 an ounce.</p>
<p><a href="http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SI%20K9" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone" title="Silver rebounded almost a full dollar to its current level of $12.80" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/20090413silver.gif" alt="" width="633" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>Now that the recent pullback seems to have ended right at those support levels, we have more reason to maintain our longer-term bullish stance on gold and silver. And the current area looks to be a great spot to dip into long positions.</p>
<p>Other than looking at limited-risk option strategies from the COMEX futures options market (where gold &amp; silver futures options trade), you can buy outright shares of the gold and silver ETFs that track the price performance &#8211; the <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=gld" target="_blank">GLD</a>) and <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=slv" target="_blank">SLV</a>) respectively.</p>
<h3>Has This Hurricane-Hating Commodity Touched New Lows?</h3>
<p>Lastly, we’re continuing to track the longer-term orange juice charts, as the price flirts with multi-year lows not seen since before hurricanes tacked on huge weather premiums to the price in 2004.</p>
<p>It looks like the market may have touched its near-term lows &#8211; and with a decent bullish move over the past two weeks, it could now be gearing up for the psychological and speculative fever that comes with the onset of hurricane season.</p>
<p>The best way to take advantage of this situation is through limited-risk bullish trades on orange juice futures options.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Orange Juice market gearing up for the psychological and speculative fever" src="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/20090413oj.gif" alt="" width="623" height="320" /></p>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/commcorner/hurricane-commodities.html">Source:  Prepare To Buy These Two Hurricane-Hating Commodities</a></p>
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		<title>Oil Rises towards $42 after OPEC Supply Pledge</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-rises-towards-42-after-opec-supply-pledge/13204</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 17:26:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bnp Paribas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bpd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic stimulus package]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=13204</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>OPEC says willing to cut production further from March&#8230;  Impending U.S. stimulus package supportive&#8230;  Dismal U.S. jobs data still weighs on sentiment&#8230; </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote><p>Oil climbed towards $42 a barrel on Monday after OPEC said it was willing to cut oil output further if needed to stabilise oil prices. </p>
<p> The market was also supported by a giant U.S. economic stimulus package that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to get through Congress this week. </p>
<p> U.S. crude for March delivery  rose $1.67 cents to  $41.84 a barrel by 1448 GMT. London Brent  climbed $1.45  cents to $47.66. </p>
<p> &#8220;If we think we still need more action, I&#8217;m sure the conference will take more action to stabilise the market,&#8221; the secretary-general of&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OPEC says willing to cut production further from March&#8230;  Impending U.S. stimulus package supportive&#8230;  Dismal U.S. jobs data still weighs on sentiment&#8230; </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote><p>Oil climbed towards $42 a barrel on Monday after OPEC said it was willing to cut oil output further if needed to stabilise oil prices. </p>
<p> The market was also supported by a giant U.S. economic stimulus package that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to get through Congress this week. </p>
<p> U.S. crude for March delivery  rose $1.67 cents to  $41.84 a barrel by 1448 GMT. London Brent  climbed $1.45  cents to $47.66. </p>
<p> &#8220;If we think we still need more action, I&#8217;m sure the conference will take more action to stabilise the market,&#8221; the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Abdullah al-Badri, told reporters in London. He was referring to OPEC&#8217;s supply policy meeting on March 15 in Vienna. </p>
<p> Badri also said the 12-member group appeared to be implementing promises of production cuts more thoroughly than expected by some in the oil market with 80 percent compliance. </p>
<p> OPEC has said it will cut oil supply by 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from its level of production in September in an attempt to bolster oil prices that have fallen from a record high of almost $150 a barrel last July. </p>
<p> Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said the market was also looking ahead to the passage this week of a massive economic stimulus package to try to revive the U.S. economy. </p>
<p> </p>
<p> STIMULUS </p>
<p> &#8220;The stimulus package is a supportive structural factor,&#8221; he said. &#8220;It should begin to have an impact on the economy in the second half of this year and is an underlying element conditioning sentiment.&#8221; </p>
<p> Top aides to President Obama on Sunday urged Democratic and Republican lawmakers to set aside political differences and quickly approve the stimulus package this week, as the world&#8217;s largest economy suffers from the worst financial crisis in 70 years.<br />
</p>
<p> Later on Monday, the Democratic-led Senate, with the help of a handful of Republicans, was due to vote to end debate on the $827 billion plan to clear the way for its passage on Tuesday. </p>
<p> Oil prices fell on Friday after news of steep job cuts in the United States, where nearly 600,000 jobs were slashed last month, the most severe cut since December 1974 prompting worries of still weaker demand in the world&#8217;s biggest oil consumer.<br />
</p>
<p> The financial malaise, which first sprang from home loan defaults in the United States, has swiftly spread to Europe and Asia, pushing a string of industrialised nations into recession. </p>
<p> Renewed violence in Nigeria also helped buoy oil prices. Nigerian militants attacked a gas plant operated by Royal Dutch Shell  in the Niger Delta on Saturday and warned of more attacks to come, but the army said it had repelled the raid and killed three gunmen.</p>
<p>LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters)</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Gold Hits Record High in Sterling Terms</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-hits-record-high-in-sterling-terms/10623</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:09:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Pounds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaza Strip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitical conflicts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metal Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spot Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p> Gold was firmer on Monday, tracking a climb in crude oil prices on the back of burgeoning tensions in the Middle East, although it retreated from earlier highs as oil gave up some of its gains. </p>
<p> Weakness in the dollar is also supporting gold, while a slide in the value of sterling to a record low versus the euro helped to take the precious metal to a new all-time high when priced in British pounds, according to Reuters data. </p>
<p> Spot gold  reached a session high of $889.55 an ounce, its strongest level since Oct 10, but eased to $875.20/877.20 by 1422 GMT from $866.80 late in New York on Friday. </p>
<p> In sterling terms, gold hit a new all-time high of&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> Gold was firmer on Monday, tracking a climb in crude oil prices on the back of burgeoning tensions in the Middle East, although it retreated from earlier highs as oil gave up some of its gains. </p>
<p> Weakness in the dollar is also supporting gold, while a slide in the value of sterling to a record low versus the euro helped to take the precious metal to a new all-time high when priced in British pounds, according to Reuters data. </p>
<p> Spot gold  reached a session high of $889.55 an ounce, its strongest level since Oct 10, but eased to $875.20/877.20 by 1422 GMT from $866.80 late in New York on Friday. </p>
<p> In sterling terms, gold hit a new all-time high of 605.07 pounds an ounce, up from 592.40 pounds on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery  climbed $6 to $877.20. </p>
<p> &#8220;Gold is following recent events in the Middle East,&#8221; said Deutsche Bank trader Michael Blumenroth. &#8220;It is reflecting geopolitical tensions.&#8221; </p>
<p> &#8220;The other precious metals are tracking gold at the moment, and the oil market,&#8221; he added. &#8220;People are also looking at the U.S. dollar, which is also helping gold.&#8221; </p>
<p> Israeli aircraft destroyed a bastion of Hamas rule over the Gaza Strip on Monday, the third day of an offensive that has killed more than 300 Palestinians in the deadliest violence in the territory. </p>
<p> Geopolitical tensions increase interest in bullion as a safe haven investment and are also a prime factor driving oil prices, which also influence gold, higher. </p>
<p> Oil rose nearly 10 percent to a high of $42.20 a barrel as the violence served as a reminder that political tensions could threaten Middle East crude supplies. However, they later slipped back below $40 a barrel. </p>
<p> &#8220;Further geopolitical tension should inflate the risk premium in current precious metal prices, which should translate into increased upside potential in the near term &#8212; barring any significant decline in financial market systemic risk,&#8221; Standard Bank analyst Manqoba Madinane said. </p>
<p> The other main external driver of gold, the dollar, weakened against the euro, helping to lift bullion prices. A softer dollar typically supports gold, which is often bought as an alternative investment to the U.S. currency. </p>
<p> The dollar fell broadly on Monday as a grim outlook for the  U.S. economy weighed. </p>
<p> </p>
<p> SILVER GAINS </p>
<p> Among other precious metals, silver  tracked gold higher to $11.04/11.12 an ounce from $10.64 late on Friday. Earlier it touched a near two-week high of $11.23 an ounce. </p>
<p> Investment demand for silver-backed exchange-traded funds  remains strong. </p>
<p> The world&#8217;s largest silver-backed ETF, the iShares Silver  Trust (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASLV">SLV</a>), said its bullion holdings rose more than 30 tonnes or 0.5 percent on Dec. 26 to their highest since late October. </p>
<p> The New York-based trust has recorded an inflow of more than  106 tonnes of silver since the beginning of December. </p>
<p> Platinum group metals also climbed, with platinum touching a session high of $931 an ounce, its strongest in 10 weeks. Later it was quoted at $903.50/913.50 an ounce against $888.50. </p>
<p> &#8220;The white metal should benefit from further bargain hunter interest in the coming sessions, with chart resistance pegged at $938/44/74,&#8221; James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said. </p>
<p> &#8220;However the metal still remains overshadowed by slowing  auto demand and shifting market fundamentals,&#8221; he added. </p>
<p> Fears over falling demand from the car industry, which accounts for around half of global platinum consumption, has knocked platinum down by as much as two-thirds from the all-time high of $2,290 an ounce it reached in March. </p>
<p> Spot palladium  rallied nearly 7 percent to a session high of $186.50, lifted by gains in other precious metals and in oil. It was later quoted at $183/188 an ounce, up from $174.50 in New York late on Friday. </p>
<p>Jan Harvey LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) </p>
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		<title>Crude Edges Higher, Brazil Welcomes Big Oil</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/euro-pounds-dollar-but-germany-is-officially-in-recession/8505</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:22:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arab Petroleum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazilian Waters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chevron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Information Administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exxon Mobil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petrobras]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=8505</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In the energy market Thursday, oil managed to gain a little ground, with crude for December delivery closing at $58.24/barrel, up $2.08 on its last day as the front-month contract. </p>
<p>“The stock market has firmed up, which is giving the energy market some strength,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “It&#8217;s clear that an awful lot of bearish news has already been priced in.”</p>
<p>The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report, delayed a day by the Veteran’s Day holiday, did little to move the market. Crude stocks were near-flat, rising by only 22,000 barrels, far below the forecast for a 1 million barrel gain.</p>
<p>But gasoline supplies rose by 2 million barrels, more than double the 850,000 barrel estimate.</p>
<p>The Organization of Arab&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the energy market Thursday, oil managed to gain a little ground, with crude for December delivery closing at $58.24/barrel, up $2.08 on its last day as the front-month contract. </p>
<p>“The stock market has firmed up, which is giving the energy market some strength,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “It&#8217;s clear that an awful lot of bearish news has already been priced in.”</p>
<p>The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report, delayed a day by the Veteran’s Day holiday, did little to move the market. Crude stocks were near-flat, rising by only 22,000 barrels, far below the forecast for a 1 million barrel gain.</p>
<p>But gasoline supplies rose by 2 million barrels, more than double the 850,000 barrel estimate.</p>
<p>The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, a subset of OPEC, is scheduled to meet in Cairo on November 29. However, non-Arab members of the cartel, such as Venezuela, Iran and Angola, will be invited to take part in talks about the oil market afterwards, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said.</p>
<p>And Brazil’s <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SAO:PETR3">Petrobras </a>has thrown open the newly-discovered fields off its coast to foreign Big Oil companies. Chevron and Shell expect to begin pumping in 2010, while <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AXOM">Exxon</a>, Mobil, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Hess+">Hess </a>and <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Devon+">Devon </a>are engaged in exploration. It’s estimated that 50-70 billion barrels of oil could lie beneath Brazilian waters</p>
<p><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrpArchives.php ">Source: Crude Edges Higher, Brazil Welcomes Big Oil<br />
</a></p>
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		<title>Crude Closes Below $60, Mexico Hedging Like Crazy</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/crude-closes-below-60-mexico-hedging-like-crazy/8275</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/crude-closes-below-60-mexico-hedging-like-crazy/8275#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:51:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gas prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nigeria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Exports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec Cuts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus Package]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=8275</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP">In the energy market Monday, oil sank below the $60 benchmark, with crude for December delivery closing at $59.33/barrel, down $3.08. December reformulated gasoline lost 6.2 cents, to $1.3059/gallon.  Early in the day, crude had fallen to $58.32, its lowest level since February, 2007, and yesterday there weren’t enough buyers to push it back over $60. </p>
<p>“Bullish news today on top of the recent Chinese stimulus package and news of Saudi Arabia&#8217;s supply cuts failed to overcome economic concerns,” said Sucden Research analyst Michael Davies.</p>
<p>Among that bullish news was a report that militants are threatening to renew attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria. A few months ago, that would have automatically shoved the oil market higher. No longer.</p>
<p>Oil prices will likely&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP">In the energy market Monday, oil sank below the $60 benchmark, with crude for December delivery closing at $59.33/barrel, down $3.08. December reformulated gasoline lost 6.2 cents, to $1.3059/gallon.  Early in the day, crude had fallen to $58.32, its lowest level since February, 2007, and yesterday there weren’t enough buyers to push it back over $60. </p>
<p>“Bullish news today on top of the recent Chinese stimulus package and news of Saudi Arabia&#8217;s supply cuts failed to overcome economic concerns,” said Sucden Research analyst Michael Davies.</p>
<p>Among that bullish news was a report that militants are threatening to renew attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria. A few months ago, that would have automatically shoved the oil market higher. No longer.</p>
<p>Oil prices will likely “keep skipping along bottom here at the $60 per barrel range until we see the fully-implemented OPEC cuts and some winter demand data hitting the market,” said Neal Ryan, of Ryan Oil &amp; Gas Partners.</p>
<p>And Mexico has reportedly hedged almost all of next year&#8217;s oil exports at prices ranging from $70 to $100. That stood in stark contrast to last year, when the world’s sixth-largest producer hedged only 20-30% of exports.</p>
<p>“This is a clear sign that they fear oil prices will remain below $70 a barrel in 2009,” said Kathy Lien, of GFT Forex. Lien added that “we doubt that they are the only oil producing country to start hedging.”</p>
<p class="maintextDRP"><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrpArchives.php ">Source: Crude closes below $60 -  Mexico hedging like crazy</p>
<p></a></p>
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		<title>Oil Advances, but October was Biggest Losing Month Ever</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-advances-but-october-was-biggest-losing-month-ever/7707</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 17:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nymex]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=7707</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP">In the energy market Friday, oil moved higher, with crude for December delivery closing at $67.81/barrel, up $1.85. November reformulated gasoline fell 2.57 cents, to $1.4413/gallon. </p>
<p>Thus ended a record-setting month, with crude&#8217;s front-month contract plunging by 32.6%, the biggest monthly decline recorded on the Nymex since trading began in 1983.</p>
<p>“The oil market had the biggest change of heart since the tin man in the Wizard of Oz,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading.</p>
<p>And Charles Perry, president of Perry Management, could only comment that, “I think we are all hoping for a more stable market in November, particularly after the election is over.”</p>
<p>Looking ahead, “Demand-side concerns are going to keep oil under pressure and we should find out soon just&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP">In the energy market Friday, oil moved higher, with crude for December delivery closing at $67.81/barrel, up $1.85. November reformulated gasoline fell 2.57 cents, to $1.4413/gallon. </p>
<p>Thus ended a record-setting month, with crude&#8217;s front-month contract plunging by 32.6%, the biggest monthly decline recorded on the Nymex since trading began in 1983.</p>
<p>“The oil market had the biggest change of heart since the tin man in the Wizard of Oz,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading.</p>
<p>And Charles Perry, president of Perry Management, could only comment that, “I think we are all hoping for a more stable market in November, particularly after the election is over.”</p>
<p>Looking ahead, “Demand-side concerns are going to keep oil under pressure and we should find out soon just what price the Saudis want to defend,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy &amp; Economic Research. “Clearly, we are below the level that the price hawks, such as Venezuela, would prefer, but the Saudis have not publicly called for a restoration of higher prices.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayDrpArchives.php ">Source: Oil advances &#8211; But October was biggest losing month ever</a></p>
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		<title>Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, October 29, 2008</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/global-investing-roundups-wednesday-october-29-2008/7361</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/global-investing-roundups-wednesday-october-29-2008/7361#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Confidence Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Suisse Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deutsche Bank Ag]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DHX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GCI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opec]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Whirlpool Corp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WHR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=7361</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Consumer Confidence at All-Time Low; Home Prices Continue Collapse; OPEC Still Not Satisfied; Whirlpool Circles the Drain; Optimistic Wall Street; Banks Balk on Buyout; Stop the Presses?</p>
<p>* The Conference Board said yesterday (Tuesday) that its consumer confidence index fell to 38 – the lowest level since the Conference Board began tracking consumer sentiment in 1967. The index registered a revised 61.4 in September, which makes this month’s drop the third-steepest drop on record. A year ago, the index stood at 95.2.</p>
<p>* The Standard &#38; Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index dropped a record 16.6% from August last year – the largest drop since its inception in 2000, The Associated Press reported. Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted more than 20% since&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Consumer Confidence at All-Time Low; Home Prices Continue Collapse; OPEC Still Not Satisfied; Whirlpool Circles the Drain; Optimistic Wall Street; Banks Balk on Buyout; Stop the Presses?</p>
<p>* The Conference Board said yesterday (Tuesday) that its consumer confidence index fell to 38 – the lowest level since the Conference Board began tracking consumer sentiment in 1967. The index registered a revised 61.4 in September, which makes this month’s drop the third-steepest drop on record. A year ago, the index stood at 95.2.</p>
<p>* The Standard &amp; Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index dropped a record 16.6% from August last year – the largest drop since its inception in 2000, The Associated Press reported. Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted more than 20% since peaking in July 2006, the group reported. The 10-city index tumbled 17.7% — the biggest decline in its 21-year history.</p>
<p>* The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday (Tuesday) that it would continue to prop up the oil market and may call another meeting before the group’s next scheduled conference in December. &#8220;If circumstances dictate we have to have another meeting, we will have a meeting before the Algerian meeting,&#8221; OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri told Reuters.</p>
<p>* Whirlpool Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=whr">WHR</a>) said yesterday (Tuesday) it will eliminate about 5,000 jobs this year and next, as the U.S. economy continues down its path to recession. The nation’s largest home appliance maker said its earnings fell 7% in the third quarter.</p>
<p>* Despite a market deep in bear territory, Wall Street professionals still expect year-end bonuses. According to a survey by eFinancialCareers, a unit of specialty jobs site operator Dice Holdings Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=DHX">DHX</a>), 67% of workers expect a bonus for 2008. But some companies, such as Deutsche Bank AG (DB) have already announced top executives would not receive bonuses for the year, Reuters reported.</p>
<p>* Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CS">CS</a>) and Deutsche Bank AG (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ADB">DB</a>) yesterday (Tuesday) both refused to provide financing for the $6.5 billion buyout of Huntsman Corp. (HUN) by a unit of Apollo Global Management LLC. The banks refused to fund the purchase of the chemical company because the combined company could prove insolvent, Bloomberg News reported.</p>
<p>* The 100-year-old Christian Science Monitor said yesterday (Tuesday) that it would stop printing a daily edition next year in order to focus on the Internet – becoming the first nationally distributed newspaper to do so, Bloomberg News reported. And in a related story, national newspaper publisher Gannett Co. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGCI">GCI</a>) said it would cut 10% of the workers at its community newspapers – a move that follows a cut of 3%, or 1,000 jobs, back in August. The cuts should be completed by early December and don’t apply to USA Today, Gannett said. Gannett, which publishes 85 daily newspapers, recently reported that third-quarter revenue declined 9%, and said it would re-evaluate its dividend policy.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/29/global-investing-roundups-139/">Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, October 29, 2008</a></p>
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