• Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the world’s No. 1 drug maker, said yesterday (Monday) that it would acquire U.S. rival Wyeth (WYE) for about $68 billion in a strategic buyout that diversifies its revenue base. To help finance the deal, Pfizer said it would cut its dividend and use about $22.5 billion in debt that it raised from a consortium of global banks. The deal is key because it will help Pfizer cope with a major revenue gap that will emerge in 2011, when its blockbuster cholesterol-treatment drug, Lipitor, will begin to face U.S. generic competition, Reuters reported. Next year, Wyeth loses patent protection on its own top drug, the anti-depressant Effexor XR.

• Two measures of U.S. economic performance unexpectedly turned positive in December Bloomberg reported.  The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 6.5%, propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression. Also, the index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% reacting to an expansion of the money supply, the Conference Board said.  The positive numbers are a sharp contrast to the tens of thousands of layoffs announced yesterday (Monday) which may accelerate the pullback in consumer spending and deepen the longest recession since 1982.

• McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) reported softening in some overseas markets, but still managed to produce a quarterly profit that handily topped Wall Street estimates, Reuters reported. The company posted a 5.8% rise in worldwide sales in December at restaurants open at least 13 months, despite a U.S. recession that has spread to global economies.  The world’s biggest hamburger chain reported a slowdown in its German business due to price hikes and slower same-store sales in China, where growth has been red-hot. McDonald’s said it was also hit by a stronger dollar in foreign markets, including Canada, Europe, Britain and Australia.

• Plummeting metal prices led Freeport McMoran (FCX) to lower projected copper and molybdenum sales targets for both 2009 and 2010 as it posted a gigantic net loss of $13.9 billion, or $36.78 per share yesterday (Monday), Reuters reported.  But its shares rallied on Wall Street as the losses were primarily blamed on $14 billion in noncash charges, including writedowns of inventory values and goodwill from the acquisition of rival Phelps Dodge. Still, citing the worldwide construction slump, Freeport lowered its forecasts for copper sales by 9% and cut its outlook for molybdenum production by 25% for 2009.

• After posting five straight declines in quarterly profit, Lincoln National Corp. (LNC), the Philadelphia-based life insurer, said yesterday (Monday) that it is cutting 5% of staff, or about 540 jobs. North American insurers have announced more than 5,000 job cuts over the past two years as the industry reported at least $125 billion in losses and writedowns tied to the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market, Bloomberg reported. The insurer’s third-quarter net income plunged 55 percent to about $148.4 million. Fourth-quarter results are scheduled to be released Feb. 9.

• General Motors Corp. (GM) said it will eliminate shifts in the second quarter at Ohio and Michigan plants, a move that will shed about 2,000 jobs. The carmaker will also cut production at 13 other U.S. and Canadian plants, Bloomberg reported.

• Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petroleo Brazileiro SA (ADR:PBR), said it will seek to cut costs by as much as $4 billion annually. Officials said the move is necessary for its plans to double output and develop the Americas’ largest oil-field discovery in the past three decades, Bloomberg reported.

• Halliburton Co. (HAL) will pay $559 million – $382 million to the Department of Justice and $177 million to the Securities and Exchange Commission – to end an investigation into its KBR Inc. unit. The unit allegedly bribed Nigerian officials for as much as 20 years, Reuters reported.

Source: Global Investment News Briefs, Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

Don’t expect oil prices to remain at these low levels for long, says Byron King. Demand weakness for crude is temporary. And oil-producing nations cannot sustain their own economies unless oil prices are close to $100 a barrel. Byron says it could be time for investors to slowly build up a position in oil service stocks.

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

Along with the market decline, the price of oil has fallen. It’s down 50% within three months. Back when oil hit $147 per barrel in July, I said that the price “ought” to be in the range of $100-110, with the possibility of a drop into the $90s. That’s what the fundamentals told me back then.

Most of the decline in oil price from $147 down to about $100 was directly related to the strengthening of the dollar. So the oil price slide in July, August and the first part of September was mostly a monetary phenomenon.

Then we had the mid-September credit crunch and market meltdown. That dragged the price of oil from $100 or so per barrel down into the $70s (with price excursions down into the $60s). The demand weakness for oil has become clear in the past six weeks or so. Everybody just sort of woke up and figured out that the world was entering into a recession. The flip side is that inventories are building back up.

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The Fed’s Handout Line Open to All Failing Companies

Who will be the next failing company to come to the Fed with hands out ready for a handout? It’s hard to tell…unless you have the right information.

One quick look at the secret 100-F document of Lehman Bros. and AIG would have predicted their collapse. Find out which company will be next by clicking here.

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This has taken down all of the oil and oil-service companies. Among the latter, Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) have all tumbled. Even the perennially “too expensive” Schlumberger is way down.

The thing about the oil service companies, though, is that a lot of their business is all but recession proof. And much of the oil service business is immune even to wide swings in oil prices. That is, many oil company capital budgets are drawn up a couple of years ahead of time. So oil service companies should have work despite the macroeconomic situation. Not as much as in the boom times, maybe. But it’s not going to be as bad for the oil service companies as a lot of people seem to think.

There are many reasons for this. Sometimes an oil company has leases that are going to expire if it does not drill within a certain time frame. So the oil company has to drill. Or maybe the oil company has a rig under contract. So it has to drill before the contract expires and the rig moves on to other sites. Or maybe there is maintenance or a major workover on a well or field that just plain has to get done for reasons of safety or the environment. As I said, there can be a lot of reasons.

So keep an eye on the oil service companies. As Monty Python once said, they are “not dead yet.” The oil service companies are way down from previous high prices. I believe that this is a time to nibble. Don’t blow your whole wad of cash, but begin to accumulate a position while we watch how the larger economy unfolds. I think we’ll see stronger oil prices sooner, rather than later.

Oil Exporters Surprised, and Waiting at the Rope Line

Speaking of how the larger economy unfolds, some of the most surprised people on the planet are the folks who run oil-exporting countries. Hey, they believed their own press releases. They thought that oil prices would continue to rise upward, ever upward. All they had to do was figure out what to do with all the money that was going to pile up in their bank accounts. No waiting at the rope line for these worthies. But right now, demand destruction trumps even market manipulation by OPEC, not to mention the inexorable effects of depletion.

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Get Gold Cheap… Before It Takes Off Again

Gold is giving you another chance to get in for the inevitable ride up at a bargain.

Here’s how to get it at a discount and multiply those gains. Click here to read more…

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So what are the OPEC people thinking? They are hopping mad. The OPEC folks sure got used to high oil prices in a hurry. They don’t like these low oil prices. It costs money to run a petro-welfare state.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria need oil prices above $95 per barrel just to cover their respective national budgets. Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $75 to cover its budget. Well over half of the revenues of the Russian Federation come from taxes on hydrocarbons. Mexico gets over 40% of its federal revenues from taxes on Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the national oil company.

So low oil prices are causing problems for the oil-exporting states of the world. No major oil exporting country can long afford to see oil prices where they are now. Come what may, OPEC is going to turn valves and reduce supply. It’s just a question of how soon this will occur, how much oil OPEC will take off the market and what that will do to pricing. No less an authority than Hugo Chavez of Venezuela recently stated that “Venezuela can live with a price of $90 to $100 per barrel. But not less than that.”

“The Era of Cheap Oil Is Finished”

According to Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari, “The era of cheap oil is finished.” When a reporter from the New York Times asked Nozari what price Iran would want for its oil, Nozari declared, “The more the better.” Nozari stated that he is urging his fellow OPEC members to cut production by up to 2.5 million barrels per day.

How much oil is 2.5 million barrels? By comparison, the $6 billion BP (NYSE:BP) Thunder Horse Platform — 20 years in the making in deep water in the Gulf of Mexico — should produce 250,000 barrels per day by the end of 2009. So with one move by OPEC, there goes the equivalent of 10 Thunder Horses.

OPEC representatives are touring national capitals, urging non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia, Mexico and Norway, to follow the cartel’s lead and cut production, according to Reuters news services. OPEC is trying to engineer a coordinated move to drive oil prices back up over $100 per barrel.

Most OPEC nations have already reached their own version of “Peak Oil.” Traditional oil-export powerhouses like Iran and Kuwait have admitted as much. Aside from Saudi Arabia, most OPEC exporters see a window of less than 20 years for significant international oil exports. By then, internal rising demand and falling output (due to depletion) will severely constrain the world oil markets. So all OPEC nations are interested in selling oil now for as much as they can get.

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The End of Cheap Oil

You wouldn’t think so. After all, oil prices just plummeted…

But the fundamentals are clear as day. Oil is destined to get a lot more expensive.

It’s going to change life in the U.S. and the world…forever…but you can protect yourself and prosper… Click here to take advantage of oil’s temporarily lower prices.

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“We Want the Money Now”

Last May, I attended the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. I had a revealing discussion with an oil manager who works for the national oil company of an African country. He told me this:

“The Saudis think there is an ‘optimum’ price for oil. They don’t want to raise prices too much, too fast. They say it will kill the economies of the West. But for my nation, we disagree. There is no ‘optimum’ price for oil. We don’t care about the economic effects on Western consumers. If Western consumers want to drive, they will pay. Or they can walk, like millions of people do where I come from. So we pump oil every day. We want to get as much as we can for the oil. We want the money now so we can fund the priorities of our national government. We cannot tell the people that they have to live in poverty for another generation because we are afraid that Westerners will not be able to drive their Mercedes-Benzes.”

So you can see why the odds favor rising oil prices within a few months.

Source: Oil Prices Down…for Now

There was more volume on the Comex on Wednesday than there had been in a while, but still nothing major. It’s interesting to note that the price rallies in both metals appeared to have been capped before the 50-day and 20-day moving averages were violated to the up-side. As I mentioned earlier this week, these are the magic moving averages that the tech funds like to use as long-side buy signals.

We also had a key reversal day to the up-side in both metals. The boys have never allowed this technical indicator to stand….squashing the price of both metals during the following trading session. Let’s see if that happens again this time. If it doesn’t, and prices continue to rise, then the tech funds will certainly show up…and the trading day could get real interesting.

As far as Tuesday’s open interest numbers, gold was up a scant 534 contracts and silver o.i. fell 761 contracts…both on very low volume. With more activity on yesterday’s strong rise in both metals, it’s pretty much a given that both o.i. numbers for Wednesday will be positive…and much larger. I’m sure there was a tech fund or two on the prowl yesterday as well.

A couple of stories today. During the last week, rice has been in the news a lot, and I have a bunch of them in my in-box. Seems like the price of rice have been climbing quite a bit…to the point where riots and strikes are breaking out in some third-world countries. Governments are becoming concerned…and some are taking action. Here’s a story out of London’s Financial Times entitled “Rice jumps as Africa joins race for supplies.” Click here.

The main feature is commentary from Michael Kosares over at usagold.com. MK puts a very positive spin on gold’s future. I’m sure his comments would encompass silver was well. The essay is entitled “Golden Gut Check” and it’s linked here.

Today should be another interesting day. Equities should continue to levitate. Now that the PPT is stalking the land, it’s hard to know what’s real and not real, as they’ve done everything in their power to thwart the pricing mechanism of our supposedly free markets. But they can’t do it forever.