According to the paper: “Questioned about a possible rise which would go to $200, the minister did not rule out this eventuality, explaining that this rise is indexed from now on to the fall in the dollar or to the rise in the dollar.”

Peak Oil expert Byron King was ahead of the curve on the role of the dollar in pushing up oil prices. Last week Byron wrote this in his Energy and Oil blog. “A declining dollar hurts all Americans, and every dollar holder in the world. Call it ‘Battered-Dollar Syndrome.’ A declining dollar works against long-term investment. The late economist Kurt Richebacher used to say, ‘A declining currency destroys capital.’ Still, somebody must think it is OK to devalue the dollar, because that is one of the key drivers behind the rising price for oil.

“The world oil supply has become very tight. Demand is rising. The price for oil would ordinarily be going up to clear the market. But with all the ‘extra’ money creation coming out of the US Fed, oil prices are going up even faster. And I should add that just the expectation of loose money is also inflating the price of oil. There is probably $15-20 worth of ’speculation premium’ built into every barrel.

In December, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald publicly forecast that oil prices will reach $187 a barrel within three years. In mid-March, he reiterated this projection.

According to Keith colleague at Money Morning, “Not only has this forecast continued to receive widespread play on energy — and investment– related web sites, we’re starting to see similar ‘me too’ predictions being made by some the energy sector’s heavyweight experts: Literally only days after Money Morning reiterated its forecast, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs said that crude oil prices would reach $175 a barrel in the next two years.”

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Crude price forecasts can’t be accurate without understanding Saudi oil production. And the truth of the matter is that Saudi oil wells are drying up.

“Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve,” legendary investor Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an interview in Singapore last month. “It’s astonishing. The figure never goes up and it never goes down. They have produced dozens of millions — billions — of dollars of oil in that period of time.

“If you go to Saudi Arabia, you have to wonder: ‘How could this be? How could it be that every year for 20 years in a row, you always have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve?’ The Saudis say: ‘You either believe us or you don’t.’ And that’s the end of the conversation.”

Marc Faber, author of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, argues that a slowdown in the Chinese economy could put downward on oil prices.

“Let us assume that the unthinkable happens,” says Marc in The Daily Reckoning. “China’s economy slows down sharply, or even contracts – and there are reasons why it could. Commodity prices slump and bring about economic hardship in the resource-producing countries. Imports of capital and consumer goods from Europe and Japan decline. We would then have the perfect setting for a global economic contraction with dire consequences for corporate earnings and asset prices.”

“We’re not predicting this, says Bill Bonner. “We’re sticking with our middle-of-the-road forecast…for neither worldwide prosperity nor worldwide ruin. But there are risks from both directions. And while most people expect a mild recession and quick recovery…almost no one expects the kind of global meltdown Marc imagines. We could see oil below $50…the Dow below 5,000…Wall Street wiped out…and 20 million US families busted.”

A stronger dollar may also play a role in bringing down oil prices, says commodities expert Doug Casey over at Casey Research.

Doug quotes John Kilduff, of MF Global, who says: “A substantial and sustained dollar rebound should be accompanied by a renewed affinity for other asset classes, further hastening a deflation of the commodity bubble.”

Andrew Mickey at Taipan Daily argues that $120 oil is just the start, partly as a result of what’s happening with Russia.

“Russia is not finding any new oil,” says Andrew.

“The situation is already pretty bad, and it’s only getting worse. At the current rate new oil discoveries are being made, total reserves of the world’s second-largest oil producer could be cut in half by 2030. Meanwhile, production could be slashed by 75%.”

Andrew’s colleague at Taipan Daily Justice Litle sees the Fed’s hand at work in rising oil prices.

“The world oil supply has become very tight. Demand is rising. The price for oil would ordinarily be going up to clear the market. But with all the ‘extra’ money creation coming out of the US Fed, oil prices are going up even faster (this is what the chart above shows). And I should add that just the expectation of loose money is also inflating the price of oil. There is probably $15-20 worth of ’speculation premium’ built into every barrel.”

While the recent decline is somewhat steeper than the five 20% -30% corrections experienced since 2001 (when the current bull market in oil began), I feel that this pullback no more signals the arrival of a bear market than any of those previous dips.

While the current pullback may be more substantial and longer lasting than prior corrections, the long-term up trend remains intact. In fact, a drop to around $47 would put the market right onto its long-term trend line. While the momentum may well cause oil prices to test this trend-line, I’m convinced that it will hold.

Remember, more so than at any other time in the past, short-term market movements are being driven by the more than 9,000 hedge funds, many of which have highly leveraged positions in the oil markets. Clearly many momentum players are closing their long position, while others are initiating new short positions. This type of speculative trading exaggerates the severity of corrections, but is also sows the seeds for an equally dramatic rally.

Leverage is a two-edged sword. When real physical demand finally turns the market, those shorting into this decline will be forced to cover. Finding few real sellers at these depressed prices, this added demand will send prices sharply higher.

In addition, these sharp price declines do a lot more then shake out weak longs and sucker in the shorts; they create a stronger foundation upon which much higher prices can ultimately be built. First, fearful that a return to sub $30 prices will eviscerate return assumptions, oil producers will become increasingly reluctant to undertake costly exploration and development projects. Second, lower oil prices will discourage investment in alternative energy sources. And last, the anticipation of lower prices will discourage consumers from using alternative fuel sources, investing in fuel saving devices, or purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles. The result is that future demand will be higher and future supply will be lower.

One of the reasons behind the sudden change of psychology has been the unseasonably mild winter in the Northeast (On the first Saturday in January, my son and I ran barefoot on a crowded beach in Greenwich, Connecticut). No doubt there were several oil traders who enjoyed the 70 degree weather with us and who used it as an excuse to sell. Given the fixation on the weather, I would not be surprised if the NYMEX were to set up a live video feed in Punxsutawney, PA on Groundhog Day (February 2) so that traders could ascertain if Phil sees his shadow. In any event, much of this sentiment is likely to dissipate when real winter weather finally arrives.

Of course the disproportioned impact that U.S. demand has on global oil prices will fade as the dollar continues to fall. By making oil much more expensive for Americans while simultaneously making it much cheaper for everyone else, a dollar collapse will dramatically reduce demand in America while increasing it abroad. As Americans are increasingly priced out of the global oil market, our local weather patterns will be far less relevant in determining prices. Sorry Phil.

Source: How Low Can Oil Prices Go?