Last year’s 54% drop in oil prices may have set the table for a rally similar to the one experienced in 1999, when prices doubled after a similar decline. The so-called “forward curve of futures contracts” traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests prices will rise 28% this year, according to Bloomberg News.

President-elect Barack Obama is faced with the daunting challenge of fulfilling his campaign promises – promises he actually made, along with those that voters think he made.  Unfortunately, the latter category predominates.

The mooted plan by Saudi Arabia to hike oil production in July by 200,000 barrels is marginal. It is not going to have a significant effect on the oil price. I am also not sure if it is true, after all it was UN head honcho Ban Ki Moon who revealed the plan and not the Saudis.

On the supply front, Nigeria’s president said the country’s state-owned oil company will take over operations in the Ogoni district of southern Nigeria from a Royal Dutch Shell joint venture. President Umaru Yar’Adua made the announcement after talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, saying that the move will “calm down” unrest among local residents.

Last week I promised that I’d go over some promising sectors in the green market. But the past two articles on the topic generated some important feedback that I’d like to go over with you today.

Last week, Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, announced that his nation would not renew its OPEC membership.

Since the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita – North Atlantic Hurricane seasons have been mild in comparison. That was three years ago when the oil price was $50… what do you think production disruption will do to $135 oil?

The number of OPEC countries has dropped to 12 from 13 after Indonesia an OPEC member since 1962, has announced it will leave the oil producers’ consortium due falling oil production. This from Bloomberg:

Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region’s biggest economy to boost imports.

Exactly 12 months ago, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at just under $63 a barrel.

The IEA forecast for a daily increase in global oil production of 31 million barrels by 2030—a 37% jump—sounds like pure fantasy. Do the facts support it? Are big oil companies already searching for that future oil and finding it? Do they have plans to produce it?