Take two days off and look what happens… the recession has bottomed.

At least that’s what “they” would have you believe. While we locked ourselves in our bimonthly editorial meeting the last two days, we missed some new “the worst is over” calls. Here’s the rundown:
“The pace of economic contraction is slowing,” declared the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday after emerging from a two-day meeting of their own. Even though Mr. Bernanke and his brood say, “economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” the vibe from the FOMC statement was decidedly rosy.

Of course, inflation “will remained subdued for some time” and the group will leave rates near zero “for an extended period.” Same old story at the Federal Reserve. The rest of the Fed announcements were nonevents… new age lending programs and quantitative easing will neither increase nor decrease before their next meeting in August.
Despite all the data out this week — new and existing home sales, GDP, jobless claims — only one has given the Street a jolt: durable goods.

Orders for items meant to last a few years increased 1.8% from April to May, smashing Wall Street’s expected 0.4% growth. Never mind that orders in the first five months of 2009 are down 27% compared to 2008… May’s number is another green shoot! Hooray!

“I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily,” said Warren Buffett yesterday. “Everything that I see about the economy is that we’ve had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that’s been surmounted and that’s enormously important. But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes awhile. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still under way and it looks to me like it will be under way for quite a while. In the [Berkshire Hathaway] annual report, I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond. I’m afraid that’s true…

“I had a cataract operation on my left eye about a month ago and I thought maybe now I’ll be able to see green shoots. We’re not seeing them. Whether it’s retailing, manufacturing, wherever. We have a big utility operation. Industrial demand is down like we’ve never seen it for a simple thing like electricity. So it hasn’t happened yet. It will happen. I want to emphasize that. But it hasn’t happened yet.”
Speaking of Buffett, his annual charity lunch auction is proving to be an annual sign of the times. Last year, the oversized $2.1 million winning bid for a lunch with Buffett came from a Chinese fund manager — three times the previous year’s winning bid. This year, with only one day remaining, bids for the eBay auction are up to “just” $350,000.
The U.S. economy didn’t contract quite as much as reported in the first quarter, the Commerce Department announced today, adding to the optimistic mood. The government arm finalized first-quarter GDP numbers today. Their initial report detected a 6.1% contraction. The first revision was a 5.7% fall, and now Commerce claims the economy shrank just 5.5% in the first quarter of the year.
The OECD has drastically revised its growth expectations for the U.S.

“Signs have multiplied that U.S. activity could bottom out in the course of the second half of this year,” said Jorgen Elmeskov, the OECD’s acting chief economist. The group now forecasts a 2.8% U.S. economic contraction in 2009 and 0.9% growth in 2010 — a huge revision from their most recent call of a 4% decline this year and zero growth in 2010.
As far as the stock market goes, we timed our two-day break well… since Monday’s swift sell-off, major indexes have gone nowhere. Despite all the data and the latest FOMC meeting, the Dow sank 0.2% Tuesday and 0.3% yesterday… yawn… stretch.
“This sideways trade for the last few weeks is typical of summer markets,” writes our commodities trader Alan Knuckman, “even in an anything but a typical year for investors. Everyone is so conditioned for strong moves in either direction it has left many unable to handle an undefined trend.

“The stall has disappointed many market watchers — with some calling for a new downturn. Over my years I have found it better to follow the trend without trying to catch the turn. Don’t be too proud to miss some of it. Most of the money is made in the middle of a trend, and that’s where we’ll stay here at Resource Trader Alert.

“Volume seems light and something is needed to spark movement after the large bull run. The S&P 500 channel — with lows last week at the 899 level (as a support level) and highs at 925-plus — is an area to watch closely for future clues. At the same time, Treasury bond futures weekly highs at 117 and lows at 114 have held traders in check. The breakout for either asset class will light the way down the future path for the markets.

“For now, let’s wait and see what trend develops. Have some wine, and let the market sort things out.”

When the next trend emerges, will you know what to do? Have Alan be your guide, here… at Resource Trader Alert.

(For a closer look into the psyche of our resource trader, be sure to check out today’s P.S.)
Commodities have succumbed to selling pressure. Since peaking at $987 in late May, gold has been in a state of steady decline. It found a temporary bottom early this week at $919 an ounce and has since inched back up to $935.

Oil fell from a recent high of $72 a barrel to as low as $66 this week. While the front-month contract has recovered to about $68 this morning, we detect a dark cloud forming over the sector.
“Oil had a strong climb,” reports Byron King, “and pushed up over $70 per barrel just a few weeks ago. Then oil met with market resistance. So the price of oil retreated into the current $60 range. Could oil go lower? Yes, at least in the short term. Oil could drop back into the $50s, despite its traditional strength during the summer driving season. You might see gasoline prices pull back 10-20 cents per gallon, which will make that trip to the gas station a buck or two cheaper.

“A pullback like that in oil prices will take the steam out of recent stock market gains for oil producers and oil services. So if you want to take any oil profits, now is probably a good time.

“No, this is not a sell recommendation for the oil sector, or any company in the energy side of the Outstanding Investments portfolio. What I’m saying is that we might have a pullback in an otherwise long-term, generally rising trend for energy. Thus, if you are of a trading mind, then take your recent energy gains now. Book some profit, and hold onto the cash for later buying opportunities. Otherwise, don’t be shocked if the energy stocks take a summer swoon.

“Longer term? Oil is headed upward in price. That’s just plain baked into the cake. Half of the world’s daily oil use is now going to developing countries. And by definition, developing countries are… developing. They are using more and more oil, or how else do you think they are developing? So even if oil use in the developed world just stays flat, that oil will still find a market.”

Outstanding Investments remains one of the greatest values of our industry. If you’re not a subscriber, get with the program,here.
The U.S. housing market is back to underperforming expectations. We saw the latest existing home sales and new home sales numbers this week — both failed to meet the Street’s forecast.

The National Association of Realtors reported 2.4% growth in existing home sales Tuesday, to an annual rate of 4.7 million. The stock market — no longer satisfied with meager housing growth — wanted a rate of 4.9 million and suffered a small sell-off.

Even though sales managed to increase in back-to-back months for the first time since 2005, existing home prices are still plummeting, distressed sales are still booming and the market is still saturated with a 9.6-month supply of homes… a positive sign that the free market still works, but hardly reason to call a bottom.
And new home sales are still slipping into the abyss.Sales of new houses fell another 0.6%, to a 342,000 annual rate, the Commerce Department said yesterday. That’s down 32.8% from last year — we hasten to add, a time when the housing market was already in the dumps. Making matters worse, Wall Street analysts were calling for a 2% rise in new home sales. And like existing home sales, the price of new homes is still falling (down another 3%, to $221,600), and inventory is still at a lofty 10-month supply.

Check out this chart of new versus existing home sales. Both have historically moved in near lock step, with the exception of last two years. If this trend is destined for a “regression to the mean,” we wouldn’t be surprised to see new home sales level out and existing sales take a turn for the worse.

The dollar’s still stuck in a range. The dollar index took a quick trip below the infamous 80 score yesterday after the FOMC’s announcement, but has since climbed back up to 80.6… not far from where it’s been for the last two weeks.
Today’s “take it for what it’s worth” dollar quote, from IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard:

“For the U.S., it is absolutely no question that a sustained recovery has to come from a large increase in exports, that may not be very easy to do. This may require fairly substantial adjustments in the dollar.” Hmm…
“I’m a raving fan of The 5, but come on,” writes a reader, referring to Monday’s issue, “couldn’t you muster a better defense of capitalism to the latest apologist?

“It is not capitalism that allowed derivatives and excessive debt levels. It is the distortion of a fractional reserve fiat currency system that is a statist addition to it that did. In a free market with a gold standard, every security bought must be funded with actual value, rather than leverage levels being allowed to explode. It is the printing press, credit creation and the statist monetary system, and not capitalism, that is the source of this crisis.”

The 5: Heh, well, there you have it.

P.S. We feel obligated to share this photo with you, if only to legitimize Addison’s recent iPhone purchase. During our marathon editorial meeting yesterday at 14 West, the fire alarm sounded. The whole building cleared out to a nearby park. Most were content with a break… we’d been vetting our ideas nonstop for the last few hours, and the alarm was a welcome excuse to relax, grab some coffee, have a smoke, etc.

Not for Alan Knuckman, editor of Resource Trader Alert. We didn’t ask how many trades he managed to fire off during the 10-minute alarm, but it was quite clear that he was in the zone. You can take the man out of Chicago… but don’t expect him to stop trading:

Curbside commodity options, fueled by Big Gulp

P.P.S. Did you learn from 2008? If so, you’re actively seeking ways to hedge your portfolio from another market fall. We’ve gathered our favorite strategies for playing the next bear market here, in our latest special report.

Source: Bernanke’s Forecast, Buffett’s Green Shoots, Can’t Miss Data, Taking Oil Profits and More!

The US’s minority party routed American taxpayers Tuesday when it mopped the floor with citizen-related issues by blocking a vote that would have:

• Killed corporate oil’s $17 billion tax break.
• Taxed excessive corporate oil profits, unless big oil poured the excess into exploring alternative energies.
• Forced oil futures speculators from big investment banks, hedge funds and brokerages to have a lot more than 5% cash in the margin accounts they use to bet on oil. Such a move would have dramatically cooled speculation, which even oil company executives admit makes a barrel of oil (today) $70 to $80 too much.
• Made it a federal crime to price gouge oil and gas.

On the first two issues, Republicans ignored the minimum $17 billion in taxes that would once again flow to US coffers. Instead, they accused Democrats of merely wanting to punish oil companies as a way of expressing the seething anger most American taxpayers feel over gas prices that have skyrocketed for no apparent reason.

Democrats said, “Yup, making oil companies pay their fair share and punishing them for excessive profits while Americans suffer is exactly what we wanted to do.”

“Why that’s un-American,” screamed GOP senators. All while they rushed to call John McCain in order to congratulate him for admitting that, if elected president, he’d continue a program that secretly wiretaps domestic phone calls made by American citizens.

GOP senators made no comment on the bill’s increased margin account provision. What could they say? Big investment banks, hedge funds and brokerages won. Taxpayers lost a huge one. Best to pretend it never happened.

But, Senator I.M. Forsale did applaud the effort. He said the move is part of an effort to make gas so expensive that “poor people won’t have the gas to drive to the bank to cash welfare checks… perverted homosexxxxxuaaaallls can’t afford to drive to city hall to get married and godless whore women are economically prevented from driving to Planned Parenthood clinics.”

He added, “$5 and $6 gas is finally going to shake the losers, the sinners and the old out of the American family tree.”

Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky acknowledged that Americans are hurting from the high-energy costs. But, he strongly opposed the Democrats’ response and ridiculed those who “think we can tax our way out of this problem.”

“Republicans by and large believe that the solution to this problem, in part, is to increase domestic production,” McConnell said.

A GOP energy plan, rejected by the Senate last month, calls for opening a coastal strip of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. Drilling in the ANWR would net the US about 454 days of oil, at its current 22-million-a-day burn rate. And, it would take eight to ten years bring the first of this oil to market.

INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT

Just this Once
BELIEVE THE HYPE!

It was the email that shocked the investment world.

One noted investment authority told his readers to take seven huge stock market gains on one day… SEVEN HUGE WINNERS on one day that ranged from 526% to 102%… seven, and on stocks… not options.

But that was just the beginning! It now looks to be setting up to happen again this year, too.

That’s why you must check out the whole story right here.

I actually believe that oil field technology is advanced enough that it would be fairly safe to drill there.

Of course, there’s the human element to consider… as in shortcuts and corrupt contractors. And, with so much at stake, some people might try to cover up mistakes.

Then, I did some research and discovered just how little oil is in ANWR… modest predictions are 5.5 trillion barrels… best-case predictions suggest 10 trillion barrels.

And, that is quite literally – even at the 10-trillion level – a drop in the bucket.

You see, the US Energy Information Agency reported that if Congress gave the go-ahead to pump oil from ANWR, the crude could begin flowing by 2017. It would reach a peak of 876,000 barrels a day by 2029.

But even at peak production, the EIA analysis said, the United States would still have to import more than two-thirds of its oil.

That’s 21 years until peak. And, that peak would be less than one million barrels a day. That’s less than 1/20th of our daily burn.

And, this is a front-burner issue. For whom?

Now, I rarely share with you the thoughts I send in private to my Asia Business & Investing subscribers… but a bit of what I wrote to them on Wednesday is an extension of my thoughts here.

This is what I wrote

Here in the United States… apparently no one in charge is to blame for the state of the economy… fuel and food prices… except, of course, consumers who pay the prices.

Ron Reagan was known as the Teflon President because trouble didn’t stick to him. Today, US leaders in Washington eschew the Teflon, because no one is throwing anything at the White House or Congress.

It’s you and I that need the Teflon.

After all, it was greedy homeowners who created the credit crisis… not nominally regulated banks and lenders.

It is SUV drivers and soccer moms in mini vans who have run up the price of oil – not totally unregulated oil futures speculators (Google “Enron Loophole” for the whole story) or the threatened veto of a farm bill that included a provision to close the seven-year old crooked loophole, which is well known among Washington highest echelons at both ends of Pennsylvania Ave.

…if you’re like me, when you look around don’t you occasionally wonder who led us to the state we are in today… and why everyone in Washington has escaped blame… or worse, won’t accept responsibility?

Instead, what we get is the Mitch McConnells of the world saying “we know Americans are hurting but there’s not a thing Congress can do about it – except to open up oil drilling in the Alaskan Nation Wildlife Refuge…”

See, there it is again… Washington is not to blame… it’s those pesky, do-gooder, unpatriotic, environmentalists who are pissing in the soup.

So, how about this for an idea?

If this oil is so freekin’ critical to the US’s way of life, then we open up the ANWR for oil exploration, but with two huge restrictions.

They would be that ExxonMobil is not allowed to participate in the ANWR.

And, oil company profits would be capped at 6%.

You see, the US Geological Survey estimates that at $30 a barrel, oil company profits would be about 12% on ANWR oil… but, the Department of Energy, on Thursday, said that oil prices will be $129 a barrel in 2009. It should be $86 in 2010. And it should be back over a c-note at $107 in 2015.

So, who knows how high profits would fly on ANWR oil by 2017 when its initial oil came to market.

But, under my restrictions, every penny beyond a 6% profit would evenly flow directly to the Social Security Trust Fund and Medicare.

And, I am certain that as patriotic Americans with the ability to help sustain the American way of life, US oil companies would rush to accept that deal.

Have a great weekend.

Andy

P.S. To let me know what you thought of today’s article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

Source: Kiss Your Gas Goodbye

The major indexes took their hardest hit in months as Wall Street digested the news.

As it turns out, the shiny happy Fed wasn’t nearly as shiny and happy behind closed doors as investors might have hoped. Instead, there was a palpable sense of gloom.

The battle with economic slowdown will be a long, tough slog, the notes implied… as will be the battle against inflation. The Fed went so far as to admit conditions could still be bad in 2010.

It’s a bit hard to swallow for those of us who’ve been paying attention but, believe it or not, slowdown worries and inflation woes are still big news to some folks out there.

There is a hefty cross-section of investors (and Wall Street pros, too, for that matter) who are just “waking up” to the reality that we at Taipan have been shouting about from the rooftops for so long.

What? You mean the Fed is fretting over a toxic cocktail of slowing growth and rising inflation pressures? Ye gads, why does that sound so familiar? Could it be… could it possibly be… what was that “S” word again that those doom and gloomers like to yap about? “Stagflation” or something like that? Stop the presses!

A Word From John McClane

The out-of-the-blue shock on the heels of the Fed minutes reminds me of a scene from Die Hard, one of my favorite old-school action movies.

Bruce Willis (in the role of detective John McClane) is trapped in a skyscraper with a bunch of ruthless German terrorists, and he is desperate to bring in outside help. He frantically gets hold of 911 on the roof, but the skeptical operator thinks it’s a prank call. Witticisms are exchanged; hilarity ensues. Finally the annoyed operator gives in and says she’ll “see if a black and white can do a drive-by,” just to get Willis out of her hair.

A cop cruiser later rolls up to Nakitomi Plaza, circles the pavilion aimlessly, and gets ready to leave with a “nothing to report.” But Willis is having none of that. He responds by heaving a defunct terrorist through a skyscraper window, right down onto the cruiser… and then fills the car’s hood with machine-gun fire from 20 stories up.

After seeing his windshield smashed and his car riddled with bullets, the half-asleep cop behind the wheel goes from bored day-dreaming to burning rubber in reverse gear, yelling at the top of his lungs for backup. Willis cackles at his success in getting someone’s attention. “Welcome to the party, pal!”

So here’s a shout-out to those who thought the U.S. could just tip-toe past the consequences of its actions… who assumed that consumers would soon be right as rain again with no worries over all that debt piling up… who shrugged off inflation as a “minor problem” and assumed the broken banks could just be patched up like bike tires… to you we say, “Welcome to the party, pal!”

40 Acres and a Mule

The party is revving up again now — for the bears. It wasn’t just that the market saw its biggest downward jolt in months yesterday. The S&P 500 also managed to fail right at its 200-day moving average (light green line)… a slightly ominous sign (and a plenty loud new shorting signal).

Oh, and by the way — financial stocks, those toxic turnaround candidates we love to hate, are again leading the market downward. On May 9, Taipan Daily said of XLF and the financials in general: “This is a nice short setup. There will be some bearish trigger-pulling here soon.”

Those shorts are nicely profitable now, and set to get more so.

Such showdowns between lawmakers and oil titans have become a familiar routine on Capitol Hill. But with gas prices nearing $4 a gallon, and lawmakers headed home for a weeklong Memorial Day recess where they expect to get an earful from angry constituents, there is added urgency for Congress to appear active.

But while momentum is building for several measures, including a bill that would allow the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to be sued in American courts under antitrust laws, there is little sign that any of the proposals would do much, if anything, to lower prices quickly.

The hearing on oil profits came as Capitol Hill struggled to be seen to be ‘doing something’ about the 15-day run of record gas prices.

This week, the House voted in the so-called “Nopec bill”, which targets the OPEC oil cartel as a monopoly in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. Senate Democrats are also targeting windfall profits by oil companies and speculators in the oil futures market that they blame for high oil prices.

The oil company execs hit back at yesterday, however, pointing out that the fundamental laws of economics — such as supply and demand — was responsible for high oil profits.

“As repetitive and uninteresting as it may sound, the fundamental laws of supply and demand are at work,” said John Hofmeister, the president of Shell Oil. “Oil exporting nations, as has been said, are managing their natural resource development and production to supply their local and global markets in their own self-interest.”

Commodities investing expert Doug Casey at CaseyResearch.com points out that in its weekly inventory report, “the Energy Information Administration said that crude stocks were down 5.4 million barrels for the week ended May 16. Analysts had been expecting a rise of about 900,000 barrels.”

Keith Fitz-Gerald of Money Morning says the US can’t refine or drill its way out of the oil crisis, either.

“For one thing, refiners are the ultimate middlemen and they’re pinched at these prices. They simply can’t make money as they try to refine an increasingly expensive product and sell it to users who are chaffing at $4 a gallon. That’s why stocks like Western Refining Inc. (WNR), Tesoro Corp. (TSO), and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), for example, have fallen by nearly 30-40% in recent months. Their margins get worse with each up-tick in oil prices from here on out now that we’ve reached a point where high prices are beginning to dampen demand.”For another, drilling and refining our way out of this assumes we have oil to begin with… we don’t. And even if we turn the Alaskan Tundra into Swiss cheese, the demand reduction we’re seeing here in the United States is being dramatically offset by developing countries that are guzzling gasoline at unprecedented rates.

Read on here to find out why Keith says oil prices will reach $225 a barrel and how a simple three-step plan can bring down oil prices, without the kind of political showboating seen Washington yesterday.

According to The Washington Post: “US oil major Exxon Mobil reported $8.4 billion in first-quarter profit yesterday, as members of Congress outraged over high gasoline prices hastened to propose measures that would boost taxes on oil firms, open new areas to drilling and provide rebates to taxpayers but would not necessarily alter prices at the pumps.”

This puts Exxon Mobil on track to break the whopping $36 billion record profit it made last year.

Oil companies’ profits outside the US are also surging, with Shell and BP postiong combined quarterly profits of $14.3 billion.

The record profits come as US crude futures rose to a record $119.93 yesterday.

“Forget the bleating about pain at the pump,” says Manraaj Singh in London, “the rising price of black gold should be a shot in the arm.”

“Here is what is happening,” says Peak Oil expert Byron King. “The world oil supply has become very tight. Demand is rising. The price for oil would ordinarily be going up to clear the market. But with all the “extra” money creation coming out of the U.S. Fed, oil prices are going up even faster (this is what the chart above shows). And I should add that just the expectation of loose money is also inflating the price of oil. There is probably $15-20 worth of “speculation premium” built into every barrel.”

Byron has unearthed a very interesting chart that shows the correlation between the increase in M3 money supply and rising oil prices.