What Are These Oil Sands?

Back in Pleistocene time, the glaciers covered much of northern Alberta.  In places, there was a mile of ice.  During some of the warmer periods, there was a lot of melting.  On occasion, and in some places, there were giant, glacial-dammed lakes.

Every now and again, these glacial dams would break, sending massive volumes of water downstream, wiping away pretty much everything along the way.  Well, it turns out that in this scoured-out area that included much of the rock covering some lower Cretaceous deposits of oil.  Or rather, it was “oil” that had long ago lost the volatile components.  The stuff is properly called bitumen.

Thus we have an area in northern Alberta that’s about the size of New York State.  That area holds near 1.4 trillion barrels of bitumen resource.  To be sure, not all of it is recoverable.  In terms of recoverable “reserves,” there are only (ahem…) about 175 billion barrels, or over eight times the total of U.S. oil reserves.

Of those 175 billion barrels, about 20% are near enough to the surface to strip mine.  That’s within about 250 feet or so.  Any deeper, and the cost-benefit calculation dictates that you have to recover it via a well-and-pumping process.  Still, that makes for about 35 billion barrels of bitumen that could be extracted by mining.  (About 1.5 times total U.S. oil reserves.)  The actual, mineable area is about the size of Rhode Island.

The Heart of Oil Sands Country

All of which gets me back to why I was in Fort McMurray.  This is the heart of oil sands country.

Near 200 years ago, early explorers noticed gooey oil seeping out of the banks along the Athabaska River.  On warm days, with direct sunshine, the stuff actually flows.  Mostly, it has the consistency of peanut butter.  Unless it’s cold up here – which happens a lot – and it’s hard as a rock.

Needless to say, people talked about these “oil sands” for a lot of years.  Then in the 1960s, some people within Canadian industry and the Alberta government began to do something about it.  They decided to develop them.  It’s a long, long story.

Here’s the Short Version

The short version of the story is that large-scale oil sands development began in the 1970s.  It took gigantic levels of capital investment, like tens of billions of dollars.  That’s not pocket change.  So a group of lease-owners got together and pooled their capital to form Syncrude Canada, a joint venture.  First mining started in 1978.

Thing is, the way Syncrude operates it’s not really “mining.”  It’s landscape architecture.  Under Alberta law, Syncrude could not turn over its first shovel of rock without a master plan for remediation and restoration at the end of the cycle.

So for much of the 1970s, Syncrude performed baseline environmental studies and data-gathering.  Then they started digging in 1978.  At first, the pit looked like a moonscape of open pit mining.

The process is fairly straightforward.  Big shovels (really big) scoop large volumes (really large) of oil-laden sand (API number 8, the “bitumen”) into gigantic loaders (and I mean gigantic.)  The loaders haul the rock to a crusher.  The crushed rock goes to a washing bin, kind of like your washing machine at home except it’s the size of a high-rise office building.

The Syncrude operation washes the bitumen off the sand using naphtha.  Then they separate the bitumen, recover the naphtha for reuse, take the clean sand (and it’s clean), and replace it in a previously-mined pit.

The process uses a lot of water, but not as much as the horror-stories you might hear about “draining the rivers” of northern Canada.  Each barrel of water is recycled about 18 times.

The process uses a large amount of natural gas, but not as much as you may have heard (like, “all the natural gas of northern Canada.”)  Pretty much everything about the operation is built with co-generation in mind, so they continuously recover the heat at each stage.  That natural gas goes a long way, from what I saw.

If it takes, say, five years to dig a pit, then it may take five or more years to fill it back up with sand during the restoration process.  Syncrude’s goal is to handle the rock as little as possible.

Eventually, Syncrude returns the land to original grade, although they have some artistic license with the contours.  They cover the land with the original topsoil, that’s been in cold storage (northern Alberta… it’s cold up here for 10 months of the year).  Then they replant trees, and that’s saying something because the growing season is under two months.  It takes 80 years for your basic spruce tree to reach maturity.

There’s even a new water table, despite the disturbance of the land.

Where Things Now Stand

So at this stage, after 30 years or so of mining (with about 80 years to go, at current rates of extraction), Syncrude has come to a point of delivering 350,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil per day.  They take the 8-API bitumen and upgrade it to oil that’s competitive with West Texas Light.  Then they deliver it to the JV members, for whatever use the owners want to make of it.

Along the way, the Syncrude process removes the sulfur, so it’s sulfur-free (refiners like that).  In fact, there’s a mass of sulfur up at Syncrude that’s about the size of the Step-Pyramid at Suqqhara, Egypt.  And along the way, Syncrude sells the sulfur to the chemical industry.

I visited a former Syncrude mine, about 3.5 miles square and formerly about 200 feet deep.  Now it’s restored to grade, with trees growing and a herd of 300 wood bison grazing.  For the cynics out there, I’d say that it’s not some environmental Potemkin Village because you can’t fake a replanted forest of 25-year old trees.  You can’t fake a 300-bison herd.  Not on a former mine site 3.5 miles square.

Bottom line is that this is an immense operation.  Syncrude employs 5,000 people, plus 2,000 contractors.  Paychecks are north of $100,000 per year.  Every oil sands job supports 3 local jobs, 6 provincial and 9 others across North America (especially at Caterpillar, where they build those giant, 400-ton loaders).

In the coming weeks I’m going to delve deep into North American oil sands operations and any companies that may be set to profit. Oil sands are nothing new, but now may be the perfect time to scoop up shares of a small player or two…

Regards,
Byron W. King

Source: The Oil Sands in Alberta, Canada

The Dow crashed 1.4 points yesterday, wiping out Monday’s 1.3 point moonshot. Desperate for something beyond these 0.014% “swings,” the market’s putting China in the driver’s seat today… and these guys still have quite a lead foot:

Chinese auto sales soared 34% in May, year over year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the Red Nation scooped up 1.12 million vehicles last month, outpacing any nation in the world. Consider the course of the last 12 months, and then look at this chart… is China even part of the global slowdown?

We don’t want to get too excited about this growth, as much of these sales are a product of Chinese government stimulus. But I.O.U.S.A. is certainly throwing a bunch of money at this crisis as well, and the same meausre of auto sales here fell 34% in May… so they must be doing something right over in Beijing.

Chinese property sales rose 45% in the first five months of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, their National Bureau of Statistics announced today. Heh, notice a trend?

Again, these numbers are manipulated by government intervention… but 45%? That’s pretty big. We also note that real estate investment over the same period rose 6.8%, a rise the U.S. certainly can’t claim.

Thus, the market story today is “buy whatever China wants.” Namely, commodities. Oil’s up to $71, a 2009 high. Copper is at an eight-month high of $2.36 a pound. Aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel are all in the same boat.

Stocks like Alcoa and Exxon Mobil helped the Dow to open up 1%.

“Buy what China needs, but can’t make enough of for itself,” Chris Mayer urges, taking this investment theme to the next level.

“In other words, as an investor, buy what the Chinese have to buy. Conversely, don’t compete with China. Sell what the Chinese make plenty of. This next chart captures the idea. It shows China’s ability to produce a commodity against its demand for that commodity.

“You want to be in the lower left-hand part of the chart. In short, the very best places to be are in potash, soybeans, iron ore and oil. In these commodities, China’s share of world production is low. For potash, China represents less than 5% of global production, as shown by the vertical axis. It is also not self-sufficient. As the horizontal axis shows, China’s production of potash is little more than 20% of its domestic demand.

“As for soybeans, China was once the world’s largest exporter. In 1995, it flipped to a net importer and has been the largest importer of soybeans in the world since 2000. Much of its supply is in the hands of companies such as Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and Cargill.

“More broadly, this speaks to China’s growing demand for food, and its growing dependence on foreign suppliers to keep its rice bowls full. This is why we see China in recent months making deals for food.”

And it’s also why Chris has selected a few worthy stocks in this tiny sector for his Capital & Crisis readers. Get the tickers, here.

Global oil reserves have fallen for the first time in a decade, says BP today, throwing another feather in oil’s cap. Reserves totaled 1.25 trillion barrels at the end of 2008, reads the company’s annual Statstical Review of World Energy. A year earlier, reserves totaled 1.26 trillion barrels.

Thus, at the current rate of consumption, production and supply the world has enough barrels in reserve to last 42 years, says BP.

American oil supplies declined by 4.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said late this morning. That’s yet another bullish indicator for crude today, as the Street was expecting an 800,000 barrel increase in inventory.

Higher oil prices helped bump up the U.S. trade deficit to $29.2 billion in April, the Commerce Department reports today. The deficit is up for the second straight month, this time by 2.2%. But the global crisis’ damper on international trade and U.S. consumption is still in full effect… the trade deficit is on track to exceed “only” $361 billion this year, about half of 2008’s.

“Sell bonds, buy energy,” is Dan Denning’s latest pair trade.

“It’s not technically a new decade yet. But if the trade of the last decade was to sell stocks and buy gold, then maybe the best trade for the next 10 years is to sell bonds and buy energy. Gas, coal, oil, conventional, unconventional, renewable, alternative. You have a whole portfolio of choices.

“Gold is no longer as low as it once was. But it’s still not as high as we expect it to go before it starts to look foolish. Meanwhile, today’s government bond market looks an awful lot like the stock market circa 2000. You’re seeing a generational high in bonds. It’s another version of the “high-low” strategy.

“This time around, though, we would add energy stocks to the mix, along with gold… There is probably some truth to the fact that oil’s latest move is driven by investment demand more than, say, demand growth in the real economy. But investors ARE looking for ways to profit from U.S. dollar weakness. Oil is liquid and popular. In the long run, it’s the smaller-than-expected oil supply growth that will drive the market.”

But before anthoer bull market in energy and commodites kicks in… don’t you think we’re due for a bit more pain?

“It’s the dumb money,” writes Bill Bonner, “that thinks you can correct a generation-long period of credit growth in 24 months…with less than 10% unemployment.

“Stocks have now been in a rally for three months. The longer this goes on, of course, the dumber money gets. People come to think the bounce is a permanent bull market.”

“Why would this be the recovery?” asked Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein this morning, clearly puzzled by the idea. “There is no reason to think this is it … So many things have to be sorted out.

“I think it’s going to be a long protracted recession.”

Thus, we’re surprised that traders in Chicago are now giving 70% odds that the Fed will raise interest rates to 0.5% by November. We suspect the Fed will be pumping nearly free cash into this economy into 2010, at least. Perhaps this is Chicago’s way of saying there’s just too much money floating around.

With that in mind, today’s the big day for the U.S. Treasury market. The Treasury will announce the results of its $19 billion auction of 10-year notes today at 1 p.m. Eastern. If it doesn’t go well, it could get ugly for the government’s stimulus plans, mortgage rates, stocks, the dollar, etc. Check us out tomorrow for the details.

Before the auction, the yield on a 10-year note rose to 3.9%, its highest level since November 2008

The dollar is nervously trading up today, along with stocks. The dollar index bottomed (for now) around 79.5 and trades just above 80 as we write.

Heh, and what’s with the dollar strength? Looks like China is controlling nearly every asset class this morning:

“Nobody is talking about dumping the dollar. I don’t think this is realistic,” said China’s Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei. The world’s largest holder of dollar reserves wants the U.S. to know it won’t be selling them… not soon, anyway.

Gold is just a bit weaker today, down $10, to $950 and change.

“I agree with the reader who wrote to you about outrageous executive salaries,” a reader writes, responding to yesterday’s inbox. “Your rather smug-sounding advice was to sell the stocks of companies whose executives’ salaries offended the reader.

“Come on, guys, not reasonable advice, although that’s probably the only remedy that came to your mind. It really is a vast old boys’ network. We outsiders rarely know the true scope of their ‘I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine’ mutual aggrandizement system, and it’s hard in some sectors to find good stocks whose CEOs are not part of this piggish rip-off system. It’s a clever in-joke kind of thing, and it won’t be ended without punitive action from someone from outside who has serious clout, someone like the president. It certainly won’t be reformed because a few disgruntled stockowners sold their stocks… and it should be reformed. I too find these overcompensated executives arrogant, offensive, not worth what they are paid and assuredly not nearly so brainy as they pretend to be.”

The 5: We received many e-mails like yours. Sorry, but we still don’t get it.

If you don’t like the CEO’s salary in the first place, don’t buy the stock. If it changes for the worse, vote your proxies. Still bad? Sell the stock. If you rode a stock all the way down while the CEO cashed in, that’s a shame…and we can sort of understand you feeling cheated and outraged. But are you really going to go cry to Big Brother? We support initiatives for shareholders’ legal rights and activist investors that put shareholders first. But man… isn’t the government meddling with us enough already?

And we argue there are plenty — plenty — of great stocks out there with CEOs worth investing in. This morning we gathered some of Agora Financial’s long-term investing advisers for an off-the-cuff poll: How many companies in your portfolio are paying their CEOs so much that you feel like shareholders are getting screwed?

Chris Mayer: “I can think of two, but in both cases, the CEOs are exceptionally talented and bring a long-term track record of success.”

Jim Nelson: “Less than 40%. Some are barely making six figures.”

Greg Guenthner: “Since I deal with penny stocks, I really don’t have to worry about ‘fat cat’ CEOs. Most have very moderate salaries when compared to the big boys out there, and some are even paid what could be considered ‘working man’ money.”

Patrick Cox: “None.”

Byron King’s out in Colorado at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists convention… we suspect he’d say much of the same.

“Ultimately, stockholders are the voters who put the directors on the board,” writes our last reader. “Considering that they are also voters in national, state and local elections, is it any wonder that boards of directors screw the stockholders as they do?! Rule by sheeple.”

Cheers,

Ian Mathias

Source: China Leads the Way, The Trade of the Next Decade, CEO Pay and More!

The price of oil is a function of many things, but as with all economic issues its prime mover is demand. Demand for the past 18 months has been dropping due to the economic meltdown worldwide. This has made for great energy prices, but it’s like a warm day in January in Canada.  It’s not real and anyone who has ever lived through a northern winter knows it will not last.

Why?

First, the world is coming out of this recession and oil demand is about to explode and we, the USA, the biggest energy pig in the world, have done nothing to prepare for it. We have less of an ability to provide for our energy needs now than we did 35 years ago.

Second, Asia and the rest of the developing world are coming out of this worldwide slow down, too. Consider how much more oil will be going to Asia and the developing world as they rebound and start to suck up what’s left of the world’s capacity to produce black gold. The demand picture really begins to come into focus.

Third, the current effort of the Obama administration to avoid a depression by pumping trillions into the economy has worked. We are soaring out of the hole faster than anyone could have imagined a year ago. At the same time we are doing so with no way to fuel it, literally fuel it.

We are completely unprotected from the threats to our economy and future well being that comes from importing 75% of our oil.

Fourth, there has been zero new development of oil reserves partly because of a very admirable effort by the Obama administration to shift to clean renewable energy. Clean and renewable is great, but we have about a ten year gap that has to be filled with oil before we can make that a reality.

Fifth, a dysfunctional congress whose priorities are their careers, their party, their district and whatever is left over goes to the well being of this country, in that order. Congress is all but incapable of working toward a long term solution to the problem.

Add them up and we have all of the necessary elements for the biggest rise in oil prices in our history over the next three to five years. Here’s how we can make money on this mess.

DXO, Power Shares Deutsche Bank Crude, or DIG, Ultra Oil and gas Pro Shares, both are designed to give you twice the percentage return of any increase in the price of oil. In the past month or so DXO bottomed at about $1.90 per share and ran to about $3.20 on just a $12 dollar move up in the price of crude. That’s a 68% move. DIG has had a similar neck snapping rebound.

If oil only goes to the $75 range, which is a given at this point, the DXO and DIG stand to move another 130%. The money we can make here is mind boggling.

The best part of this play is that it is inevitable. The chances of oil not moving up in price are almost zero.

You will only get a few opportunities like this in your investing life. Think of all the times you looked back at the market and thought how great it would have been if you had put money in at the bottom. This is the bottom!

As always time is the key to the success of this recommendation. A move to $75 a barrel is very likely by the end of this year, but the big money could be several years out. Give this time to work and you won’t be disappointed.

100% plus this year is just the beginning of this move.

Source: Retire Early Compliments of OPEC

Oil prices rose above $40 a barrel on Monday, boosted by the weak dollar and Israeli attacks on Hamas that served as a reminder of tensions that could threaten Middle East crude oil supplies.

U.S. light, sweet crude was up $2.75 at $40.45 a barrel by 1335 GMT, below a session high of $42.20.

Oil is on track for a nearly 60 percent loss this year, the biggest annual fall since futures began trading 25 years ago.

London Brent crude rose $2.88 to $41.25 a barrel, after touching a session high of $43.18.

“Geopolitics had disappeared from the oil scene for the last couple of months but will regain some price premium with the latest Israeli attack in Gaza,” Olivier Jakob, of consultants Petromatrix, said in a research note.

Israeli aircraft attacked Hamas targets in Gaza on the third day of an offensive that has killed more than 300 Palestinians, many of them civilians.

The attacks enraged Arabs across the Middle East and highlighted the risk, however remote, that the conflict could threaten oil supplies from the region.

Gold rose nearly 3 percent to its highest since early October on the weak dollar and the Middle East violence.

The dollar fell broadly, pressured by the gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy.

“The level and intensity of violence this time has warranted a fiercer response from the broader Arab world and beyond,” said Raja Kiwan of energy consultants PFC Energy.

Kiwan said, however, that the amount of bearish economic news would ultimately overshadow such geopolitical factors.

OPEC COMPLIANCE

Oil is down more than $100 a barrel from a record peak of more than $147 in July, depressed by the downturn in the world economy, which has hit demand for fuel.

Prices had broken a nine-session losing streak on Friday partly on evidence of OPEC compliance with its biggest ever production cut agreed earlier in December to try to halt the market’s slide.

Libya has told oil firms to curb output by 270,000 barrels per day from Jan. 1, more than the reduction it needs to make under OPEC’s agreement to cut output.

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, the UAE’s main producer, said it would cut January and February oil exports by much more than some refiners had expected.

The allocations were among the first concrete examples that OPEC exporters were implementing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ Dec. 17 deal to cut supplies by 2.2 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter, had informed its customers of cuts even before the meeting.

OPEC has cut output three times in an effort to remove about 5 percent of world supply to halt the slump.

China’s energy chief said the world’s second-largest oil user after the United States would take advantage of falling oil prices to boost imports and build up its fledgling oil reserves.

Jane Merriman LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters)

This from Money Morning:

Oil prices have fallen 70% since hitting a record $147.27 a barrel in July, which means in just five months, crude has given up all the price gains it made in the past four years.

After such a wrenching plunge, many analysts believe the outlook for the “black gold” remains bleak – and in the short term it certainly is. In the long run, however, dwindling supplies, resurgent demand, and a lack of investment will cause crude oil to double, triple, or even quintuple in price over the next few years.

In fact, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) – energy advisor to 28 industrialized nations – says oil will rise to $100 a barrel by 2015, as a result of a major “supply crunch,” and will ultimately soar to $200 a barrel.

But before it does, prices are likely to sink even further, perhaps falling as low as $20 a barrel in the first quarter of the New Year.

Indeed, much of Wall Street expects oil prices to average about $50 a barrel in 2009. Some of the firms and their specific forecasts include:

• Deutsche Bank AG (DB, which says oil prices will average $47.50 for all of next year.
• Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER), which predicts that prices will average $50 even.
• Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) also says crude will average $50 a barrel in 2009, but says that average will increase to $55 a barrel for 2010.
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) is slightly more bearish, predicting that prices will average $45 for all of next year – after falling as low as $30 in the 2009 first quarter. (It’s worth noting that Goldman – just five months ago – predicted oil prices would hit $200 a barrel in 2009).

But analysts also agree on something else: When the recessionary tide finally recedes, all of the factors that drove oil to its record high last summer will once again be exposed, and crude again will again soar to record highs.

“We may see prices drop lower – into the twenties, even – but there’s a better-than-average chance that they’ll be back over $70 a barrel by the end of next year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “That’s where firms like Goldman and Merrill are getting all of these ‘middle-of-the road,’ $50-a-barrel estimates. And it’s why investors who buy in through the first quarter could enjoy compelling returns at the end of the year.”

In the meantime, however, low oil prices are crimping investment in new capacity, a reality that will lead to much higher prices down the road.

Just ask the IEA.

IEA: Rising Demand + Lack of Investment = ‘Supply Crunch’

According to widely respected energy advisor, global oil demand will slide 0.2%, or 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), this year, falling to an average of 85.8 million bpd. But the IEA also says that oil demand will advance by an annual average of 1.6% between 2006 and 2030.

The bottom line: Regardless of any short-term pullback, daily demand will rise from the current level of 86 million barrels to 106 million barrels in 2030. In other words, daily demand in 2030 will be 23%.

To meet that demand, the agency estimates that the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investments over the next 21 years.

China, India and other developing countries, alone, will need investments of $360 billion a year through 2030, the agency said.

About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to be added to the market by 2015. And right now – because of marketplace changes – the financial incentives to make that happen just don’t exist.

Exploration costs have more than quadrupled since 2000, as oil producers have been forced to take on more complex projects, and the costs of both labor and materials have skyrocketed. At the same time, the steep drop in oil prices has put even more pressure on energy companies to curtail their investments rather than increase them.

Earlier this year, for instance, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Saudi Arabia Investment Co. (ARAMCO) were forced to postpone bidding on the construction of a 400,000 bpd export refinery at the Yanbu Industrial City.

“We see and hear about energy investments being delayed … this is a major worry and could lead to a supply crunch and much higher oil prices than we’ve seen before,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist.

The IEA predicts that, by 2015, a lack of investment and rising demand will create a “supply crunch” – that will once again send oil prices up into the triple digits.

“There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch in that time frame,” the IEA said in an executive summary of its “2008 World Energy Outlook.” “The gap between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”

The agency predicts that crude will average more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015 and rise above $200 a barrel by 2030, as demand far outpaces supply.

“While the situation facing the world is critical, it is vital we keep our eye on the medium to long-term target of a sustainable energy future,” Nobuo Tanaka, the Paris-based agency’s executive director, told reporters in London. “While market imbalances will feed instability, the era of cheap oil is over.”

While it’s probably true that the “era of cheap oil” is in our rearview mirror, a new question has arisen: Just how high do oil prices go?

According to some analysts, the IEA’s target price of $200 a barrel is far too conservative.

$500 Oil?

The lack of exploration and development is certainly a problem. But a much bigger issue is the fact that output from the world’s existing oil fields has sharply declined.

“The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand,” the IEA says.

And output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought.

In its “2007 World Energy Outlook,” the IEA estimated that output from the world’s existing oilfields was declining by 3.7% a year. But in its latest report, published in November, the IEA revised that estimate to an annual decline of 6.7%. (The November report was based on the first major study of the world’s 800 largest oil fields.)

Unfortunately, the IEA is behind the curve.

For nearly a decade, Matthew R. Simmons has said that the world’s oil production was nearing – or already at – an “inflection point.” While his book “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” was scoffed at when it was originally published back in 2005, Simmons is now viewed as perhaps the preeminent expert on the so-called “peak oil” movement.

“Like most people who ignore conventional wisdom, he was scoffed at, ridiculed, and denied,” commodities guru Jim Rogers told Fortune magazine. “And now, of course, people are starting to say, ‘Oh, well, I thought of that.’”

Simmons, chairman of the Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co. International, poured through hundreds of technical documents submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years.

“I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon,” Simmons told Fortune, “and I sat back and thought, ‘Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I’ve just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We’re in big trouble. I’m going to write a book.’ ”

Much of the alleged Saudi Arabia subterfuge has to do with a complete lack of transparency with respect to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. After OPEC decided to base its production quotas on reserve figures in the 1980s, several of the cartel’s producers suddenly raised their levels of  “proven reserves” by 40% or more.

Back in 1988, for instance, Saudi Arabia raised its proven-reserve figure from 170 billion barrels to about 260 billion barrels. That figure has remained more or less constant since then, despite the fact that billions of barrels of oil have been pumped out of the ground.

“Saudi Arabia has announced for 20 years in a row that they have 260 billion barrels of oil in reserve,” Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview in Singapore recently.  “It’s astonishing.  The figure never goes up and it never goes down.  They have produced dozens of millions – billions – of dollars of oil in that period of time.

“Every oil country in the world has declining reserves except Saudi Arabia,” Rogers said. “And I know that every oil company has declining reserves.  So unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly in very accessible areas, the surprise is going to be how high the price stays, and how high it goes.”

Simmons thinks oil prices could hit $300 a barrel – and could possibly even surge as high as $500 a barrel – during the next several years.

“Black Gold” Profit Plays

When it comes to investing, the oil sector poses some very clear risks, especially given the murky near-term outlook. However, there are a number of large-cap integrated oil companies that may offer some truly compelling values at current prices.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) are currently trading at multi-year lows, making them exceptionally cheap in both relative and absolute terms. These companies also have strong balance sheets (Exxon is “AAA”- rated and has more cash on its balance sheet than debt), generate strong cash flows, and have traditionally increased their dividends on a regular basis.

Chevron was actually recommended as a “Buy” by Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez in his “Buy, Sell or Hold” column earlier this year.

“Chevron is the kind of company that is capable of continuing to post large profits – propelling its share higher from current levels – even if oil-and-gas prices were to drop from current levels over the next three years,” Marquez said. “That’s because Chevron’s business is well cushioned, since refining, marketing and chemicals margins would expand dramatically if market ‘spot’ prices were to decline. Also, the company’s production is poised to expand strongly and Chevron uses some selective hedging that works very well in downside oil markets.”

Offshore drillers, particularly those capable of drilling in the deepest waters, also offer value at current levels. Petroleo Brasileiro (ADR:PBR), also known as Petrobras, is particularly appealing, as it recently discovered one of the largest offshore oil fields on earth off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Known as Carioca, the field could hold 33 billion barrels of oil and gas, making the world’s largest discovery in at least 32 years.

Fitz-Gerald, the Money Morning investment director, suggests investors look at China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC Ltd. (ADR:CEO). The Hong Kong-based company recently got approval for a $29 billion exploration project in the South China Sea. The company expects to produce 50 million tons of oil equivalent per year from that region during the next 10-20 years. That would equal the production of China’s biggest project, the Daqing Oil Field.

Petrobras and CNOOC are also attractive because, as foreign companies, they will also get a boost from any devaluation in the U.S. dollar.

All of these companies have been hit hard by the combination of commodity-price weakness and credit market turmoil. But these operators do not require peak-cycle commodity prices to generate stellar results and have little or no credit-market exposure.

For a more direct play on oil prices, you might also try an exchange-traded fund (ETF), such as the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Fund (NYSE:OIL), or the United States Gasoline Fund LP (NYSE:UGA).

Source: Why Crude Oil Will Present Investors With A Golden Opportunity In 2009

Don’t expect oil prices to remain at these low levels for long, says Byron King. Demand weakness for crude is temporary. And oil-producing nations cannot sustain their own economies unless oil prices are close to $100 a barrel. Byron says it could be time for investors to slowly build up a position in oil service stocks.

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

Along with the market decline, the price of oil has fallen. It’s down 50% within three months. Back when oil hit $147 per barrel in July, I said that the price “ought” to be in the range of $100-110, with the possibility of a drop into the $90s. That’s what the fundamentals told me back then.

Most of the decline in oil price from $147 down to about $100 was directly related to the strengthening of the dollar. So the oil price slide in July, August and the first part of September was mostly a monetary phenomenon.

Then we had the mid-September credit crunch and market meltdown. That dragged the price of oil from $100 or so per barrel down into the $70s (with price excursions down into the $60s). The demand weakness for oil has become clear in the past six weeks or so. Everybody just sort of woke up and figured out that the world was entering into a recession. The flip side is that inventories are building back up.

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This has taken down all of the oil and oil-service companies. Among the latter, Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) have all tumbled. Even the perennially “too expensive” Schlumberger is way down.

The thing about the oil service companies, though, is that a lot of their business is all but recession proof. And much of the oil service business is immune even to wide swings in oil prices. That is, many oil company capital budgets are drawn up a couple of years ahead of time. So oil service companies should have work despite the macroeconomic situation. Not as much as in the boom times, maybe. But it’s not going to be as bad for the oil service companies as a lot of people seem to think.

There are many reasons for this. Sometimes an oil company has leases that are going to expire if it does not drill within a certain time frame. So the oil company has to drill. Or maybe the oil company has a rig under contract. So it has to drill before the contract expires and the rig moves on to other sites. Or maybe there is maintenance or a major workover on a well or field that just plain has to get done for reasons of safety or the environment. As I said, there can be a lot of reasons.

So keep an eye on the oil service companies. As Monty Python once said, they are “not dead yet.” The oil service companies are way down from previous high prices. I believe that this is a time to nibble. Don’t blow your whole wad of cash, but begin to accumulate a position while we watch how the larger economy unfolds. I think we’ll see stronger oil prices sooner, rather than later.

Oil Exporters Surprised, and Waiting at the Rope Line

Speaking of how the larger economy unfolds, some of the most surprised people on the planet are the folks who run oil-exporting countries. Hey, they believed their own press releases. They thought that oil prices would continue to rise upward, ever upward. All they had to do was figure out what to do with all the money that was going to pile up in their bank accounts. No waiting at the rope line for these worthies. But right now, demand destruction trumps even market manipulation by OPEC, not to mention the inexorable effects of depletion.

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So what are the OPEC people thinking? They are hopping mad. The OPEC folks sure got used to high oil prices in a hurry. They don’t like these low oil prices. It costs money to run a petro-welfare state.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria need oil prices above $95 per barrel just to cover their respective national budgets. Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $75 to cover its budget. Well over half of the revenues of the Russian Federation come from taxes on hydrocarbons. Mexico gets over 40% of its federal revenues from taxes on Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the national oil company.

So low oil prices are causing problems for the oil-exporting states of the world. No major oil exporting country can long afford to see oil prices where they are now. Come what may, OPEC is going to turn valves and reduce supply. It’s just a question of how soon this will occur, how much oil OPEC will take off the market and what that will do to pricing. No less an authority than Hugo Chavez of Venezuela recently stated that “Venezuela can live with a price of $90 to $100 per barrel. But not less than that.”

“The Era of Cheap Oil Is Finished”

According to Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari, “The era of cheap oil is finished.” When a reporter from the New York Times asked Nozari what price Iran would want for its oil, Nozari declared, “The more the better.” Nozari stated that he is urging his fellow OPEC members to cut production by up to 2.5 million barrels per day.

How much oil is 2.5 million barrels? By comparison, the $6 billion BP (NYSE:BP) Thunder Horse Platform — 20 years in the making in deep water in the Gulf of Mexico — should produce 250,000 barrels per day by the end of 2009. So with one move by OPEC, there goes the equivalent of 10 Thunder Horses.

OPEC representatives are touring national capitals, urging non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia, Mexico and Norway, to follow the cartel’s lead and cut production, according to Reuters news services. OPEC is trying to engineer a coordinated move to drive oil prices back up over $100 per barrel.

Most OPEC nations have already reached their own version of “Peak Oil.” Traditional oil-export powerhouses like Iran and Kuwait have admitted as much. Aside from Saudi Arabia, most OPEC exporters see a window of less than 20 years for significant international oil exports. By then, internal rising demand and falling output (due to depletion) will severely constrain the world oil markets. So all OPEC nations are interested in selling oil now for as much as they can get.

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The End of Cheap Oil

You wouldn’t think so. After all, oil prices just plummeted…

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“We Want the Money Now”

Last May, I attended the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. I had a revealing discussion with an oil manager who works for the national oil company of an African country. He told me this:

“The Saudis think there is an ‘optimum’ price for oil. They don’t want to raise prices too much, too fast. They say it will kill the economies of the West. But for my nation, we disagree. There is no ‘optimum’ price for oil. We don’t care about the economic effects on Western consumers. If Western consumers want to drive, they will pay. Or they can walk, like millions of people do where I come from. So we pump oil every day. We want to get as much as we can for the oil. We want the money now so we can fund the priorities of our national government. We cannot tell the people that they have to live in poverty for another generation because we are afraid that Westerners will not be able to drive their Mercedes-Benzes.”

So you can see why the odds favor rising oil prices within a few months.

Source: Oil Prices Down…for Now

Inflation is up significantly from the 1.7% increase reported in April, Statistics Canada reported yesterday (Thursday). And high gas prices are to blame as fuel costs rose 15.0% in May compared with the same month last year – that’s considerably faster than the 12-month change of 11.6% posted in April.

Excluding gasoline prices, 12-month inflation grew 1.6% in May.

Last week, the central bank voted to keep its overnight interest rate at 3%, warning that inflation risks have “shifted slightly to the upside.” But the bank quickly followed that up by saying global demand for Canadian goods and services remains strong despite a U.S. slowdown.

“This report will not push the bank to raise rates in 2008, but we do see 100 basis points of hikes coming in 2009 as Canada’s inflation problem heats up,” Meny Grauman, an economist with CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, said in a note to clients, Bloomberg News reported.

With an end to the rate cuts, the Canadian dollar is on the rise. The loonie has gained 1% since the June 10 decision to hold rates steady, Bloomberg reported.

Recession Protection?

Earlier this month, Canada announced its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.1% in the first quarter, marking the country’s first decline since the second quarter of 2003.

But this is where inflation could actually be a friend.

In today’s world, where interest rates are low and commodity prices are high, Canada’s in a very strong position for two reasons:

• It has oil reserves – somewhat larger than the Middle East – in the form of the Athabasca oil sands.

• And it’s the world’s largest producer of uranium, with 25% of the world market. (Australia is a close second, with about 23%.)

Since Canada is a chief oil exporter, its oil companies are on the receiving end of soaring prices. And in turn, that helps pad the economy’s pocket, becoming an unlikely protective barrier to another quarter of negative GDP growth.

Also working in the economy’s favor, month-to-month wholesale sales jumped 1.4% in April, more than doubling forecasts of 0.6%, Reuters reported. This suggests that domestic demand is able to wade through inflationary waters and lends credence to justifying a future interest rate hike.

The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15.

Source: Can Inflation Save Canada from Recession?

Here’s a quote from the New York Times:

“The price of oil this year will turn on several developments around the world, among them the rise of China’s economy, whether the United States dollar continues falling as many in the industry expect and political uncertainty in nations with substantial oil reserves: Iraq, Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.”

Here’s the paragraph that followed that one:

“Major developments in any of these areas could cause the price of oil to rise from its current $32.52 a barrel for light crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Barring any unexpected or calamitous events, many analysts say it is even possible that the price will slip slightly, possibly to $27 to $30. But the price is expected to remain relatively high.”

Oh yeah, that quote is from a story The Times ran on Jan. 4, 2004.

Now, try this quote on for size. It’s from Time Magazine:

“And just as oil is seen driving American foreign policy, so too are China’s geopolitical strategies increasingly influenced by the country’s inability to meet its energy needs solely through domestic production. Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin began a state visit to China, during which Chinese President Hu Jintao was expected to press for the swift approval of several proposed billion-dollar, oil-and-gas joint ventures between the two countries, including a pipeline to connect Russia’s oil fields with China’s main domestic distribution network.”

Ripped from today’s headlines, right?

Nope. It’s from Time’s, Oct. 18, 2004 issue.

And, by the way, the New York Times was wrong. The price of light crude didn’t drop in 2004. By Oct. 18, it was making big news when it edged to $55 a barrel.

Of course, sooner or later, you know I am going to use a quote from fresh story. Maybe it’s this one. After all, it’s about the President’s reaction to something that’s been in the news as recently as last week.

“President [Bush] rejected suggestions Wednesday that he release oil from the government’s strategic reserve in a bid to ease the price of gasoline, accusing Democrats of “playing politics” over soaring gas prices.

“Bush said he “fully understands” how the rise in prices “affects American consumers, how it crimps the budgets of moms and dads who are trying to provide for their families, how it affects the truck driver, how it affects the small-business owner.”

But, guess what? That’s old news, too – Los Angeles Times May 20, 2004.

You see, my point is this – look around your world and ask yourself what’s really changed in the past four years… what’s really driving the price of oil up?

From where I sit, the answer is pretty much “not much that I can see,” unless you also consider how vast the leadership vacuum in Washington has become. Or, you consider oil company CEOs as national leaders.

And, before you Presidential apologists get all scrunchy nosed at the mere mention of Washington and leadership vacuum, I picked 2004 just to be fair. It represents four years of President Bush and fours years of a Democratic controlled Congress… four years that flashed by since these quotes were published.

Four years of zip, zilch, zed, zero on the leadership front when it comes to oil policy. That is, unless you call it leadership when oil executives whine to Congress on a regular basis about how their hands are tied when it comes to prices and anyway, “we’re always concerned about shareholder value.”

I love that last one by the way, like we’re so dumb that when they say “shareholder” they think we hear stakeholder.

The Truth Will Bust You Flat Broke

But, sometimes those oil executives do tell the truth, though blaming global demand is not part of that truth.

You see, the US burns about 21 million barrels of oil a day, of which close to 12 million barrels are imported. China only goes through about eight million barrels a day, of which four million must be imported.

But, the truth is that oil executives were correct back on April 1, when they told congress that the price of a barrel of oil should be about $55 (it was mere $100 then).

According to the oil executives, the price discrepancy – one that continues today – is due to oil futures speculators running the price up.

Not only is he forecasting higher and higher prices for black gold, but he’s also putting money into new oil companies.

According to the 13F Disbursement Plan, Pickens just bought Sandridge Energy Inc. (SD:NYSE) in the first quarter of 2008. It just went public in late 2007.

So far, it’s been on a solid run, returning an 83% gain in only four months. But it’s still cheaper than the major oil companies like BP and Exxon Mobil.

Sandridge is based in Oklahoma. It looks for natural gas and oil reserves in Texas and drills for other companies. It also provides CO2 to third-party oil recovery projects.

After an initial buy in the first quarter of 2008, I anticipate Pickens buying more and more of this oil company at its still low price of $55 per share. The safest way to invest in oil is to follow Pickens’ picks… especially since this expert says oil is going to $150, far from its current level near $130 per barrel.

Ann Sosnowski

Editor, Safe Haven Investor

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Source: Follow T. Boone’s Oil Pickings!

Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region’s biggest economy to boost imports.

Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro will sign a decree today to exit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, he told reporters in Jakarta. The nation, a member since 1962, has been considering leaving the body in the past three years.

As OPEC shrinks in numbers, there’s a new oil rush going on in Alberta, Canada.

“Alberta’s oil sands are the largest known reserve of oil on earth containing between 1.7 and 2.5 trillion barrels,” says Alex Green in InvestmentU. (Saudi Arabia, by comparison, has only 262 billion barrels of proven reserves. In fact, all OPEC nations combined have less than 900 billion barrels.)

“For decades, these sands weren’t even considered part of the world’s oil reserves because the oil there wasn’t economically extractable at prevailing prices using then-current technology. But times have changed… And the new gold rush is on.

“Here’s the kicker: Exploration of Alberta’s oil sands is virtually risk-free. You can’t drill a dry hole here. There’s no drilling at all. It’s a mining operation – and the reserves are thoroughly outlined. So what you really need is a company with plenty of machinery, money and manpower to dig it up and process it as quickly as possible.”

Read on here to find out the one undisputed blue-chip play on Alberta’s oil sands.

The good news is that there is new oil production capacity in the pipeline this year and next,” says Dan Denning in The Daily Reckoning Australia.

“Keep in mind that the final investment decision on the projects entering into production this year was made anywhere from 3-6 years ago. That shows you how far in advance you have to plan for new production (assuming you’ve even found oil in the first place).

“There are some massive LNG and natural gas projects coming on-stream between 2011 and 2015. Gazprom, Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil all look like big winners, should oil prices stay high and pass through to higher LNG prices.”