Oil fell more than $2 to below $39 a barrel on Monday, dragged down by widespread evidence that deepening recession was reducing global energy consumption.

The decline came despite news that Saudi Arabia planned to cut output to below its agreed target, as well as gas supply disruptions in Europe as a result of the Russia-Ukraine dispute and tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. light crude for February delivery fell $2.18 to a low of $38.65 by 1020 GMT. London Brent crude fell $1.62 to $42.80.

U.S. jobless data on Friday set the tone for the market.

A U.S. government report showed employers slashed jobs by 524,000 in December, driving the national unemployment rate to its highest level in almost 16 years.

“The U.S. unemployment numbers on Friday started the latest leg downwards. We have had a string of bad news, with companies and economies all reporting negative data. It is almost relentlessly bad,” said Rob Laughlin, senior oil analyst at MF Global in London.

Oil prices fell 54 percent last year and have shed more than $100 from a record peak of above $147 a barrel last July as the global economic downturn hits demand for fuel.

SUPPLY CUTS

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, plans to cut output by up to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) below its agreed OPEC target, a proactive step to prop up a collapsing market, industry sources said on Sunday.

Riyadh has already lowered supply this month to 8 million bpd, meeting its target under OPEC’s pact to reduce overall supplies by a record amount from Jan. 1.

Saudi Arabia’s cutbacks add to similar moves earlier this month by other OPEC producers including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Libya to curb supplies, although evidence that oil producers are cutting output has not lent much support to prices so far.

Iran’s representative to OPEC was quoted as saying that the group could decide to reduce oil output again at its meeting in March if crude prices fell further.

The front months on oil futures have been taking the brunt of the falls with the markets is steep contango. March U.S. crude futures have been trading at a premium of more than $5 above February, while April is around $3 above March.

Traders say the wide price spread partly reflects a lack of prompt demand but also a view that OPEC cuts will eventually start to impact the market and support prices.

Also worrying the oil market was the status of a deal to restore Russian gas supplies via Ukraine to Europe.

In the Middle East, Israel leaders trying to find a knockout blow for Hamas militants defying a 17-day-old assault have thrown army reservists into the battle.

Although the Russian-Ukrainian gas price row and Middle East tensions could help push oil prices higher, analysts said any rebound was expected to be short lived.

Goldman Sachs Commodities said in a research note on Friday that a market surplus was expected to continue to drive inventories higher and put pressure on its forecast oil price of $30 a barrel for the first quarter of 2009.

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters)

Now, we may not be dealing with a bunch of Einsteins at the head of these oil majors, but they’re not dopes either. They understand what’s going on. So, why is it that when ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and ConocoPhillips all reported in the last two weeks, each and every one of them said the same thing.

Profits are up on price increases. And volume is flat. Let me repeat that. VOLUME IS FLAT. What the heck is going on?

Take these companies with market cap’s of several hundred billion dollars … the latest drilling technologies … thousands of acres … billions of barrels of proven reserves … tens of billions more of unproven reserves – add it all up and they can’t produce more oil this quarter than they did last quarter or the quarter before?

Have these companies gone OPEC on us?

I mean, we know that OPEC keeps production just low enough to keep prices high. But they only provide about 40% of the world’s oil.

What’s the excuse for these private oil majors? Have they also found it in their interests to keep a lid on production? (This wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a manufactured shortage to hike prices.)

I almost wish there were an unholy conspiracy between OPEC and the other oil producers. If there were such a thing, it might mean with a little arm-twisting, we could get non-OPEC producers to push up production.

But, alas, there is no conspiracy.

There is something else … something much more ominous…If we were talking about food, I’d say there’s a worldwide famine brewing. But it’s oil, which isn’t quite as brutal as a famine. People have to eat. But do they have to drive?

No. But a worldwide shortage of oil is knocking on the door. Right now, supplies are tight. But they are more or less in balance … with admittedly no excess capacity to spare. It’s not going to last. Global oil demand is about to leave oil supply in the dust.

Shell’s production fell six percent year-on-year. BP’s fell two percent. ExxonMobil’s fell 10 percent. According to Credit Suisse, overall production will fall two percent this year from last. I believe that underestimates the slide.

And while OPEC – being OPEC – has no quarrel with the soaring price of oil, the fact is, even OPEC countries (except for Saudi Arabia) can’t produce more than what they are now.

Saudi Arabia is producing 12.5 million bpd (barrels per day). It has plans to increase that amount to 15 million. Or should I say “had” plans. The Saudi government has put those expansion plans on hold. It doesn’t want to take the risk of expanding into the teeth of a global recession.

OPEC as a whole plans to increase oil production by five million bpd. That won’t be enough. Global demand should increase by 11.5 million bpd by 2030.

Russia came to our rescue in 1999 when it finally opened up its fields to Western participation. Russian production rose by four million bpd from 1996 to last year. During the same period, Saudi Arabia’s production increased by 600,000 bpd.

Can any of the non-OPEC countries come to our rescue once again? Russia won’t. It’s too busy renationalizing its oil and gas industry.

Mexico? Nope. Their Cantarell field is getting long in the tooth.

England? Norway? No, their North Sea production is winding down.

Venezuela? Don’t make me laugh. Mr. Hugo Chavez is more intent on using his petro-profits as a tool of foreign policy, not plowing them back into oil production to help lower oil prices for the U.S. and its friends.

And the oil majors can’t help us because they can’t help themselves. Every time they think they’re getting access to a big field bursting with oil, something happens. Expropriation … terrorist acts … renationalization…

The plan would target profit from the biggest oil companies by taxing each barrel of oil costing more than $80, according to a fact sheet on the proposal. The tax would help pay for a $1,000 tax cut for working families, an expansion of the earned- income tax credit and assistance for people who can’t afford their energy bills.

The real question for Obama, should he end up in office, is: Where is America going to get its oil from?

“OPEC simply won’t raise output, the non-OPEC producers simply can’t,” says Profit Watch editor Manraaj Singh,

“Right now, the non-OPEC countries produce about 60% of global oil supply – about 50 million barrels a day. But they’re stuck there. In fact production is falling quickly in some of the biggest of them.

“Norway’s output has fallen by 25% from its peak in 2001. British output has slumped by 43% in eight years. In America, the giant Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska has seen output drop by 65% from its peak two decades ago…

“And in Mexico, production at the giant Cantarell oil field is collapsing and they haven’t found any new fields to replace it. But Mexico’s economy is growing rapidly. So, domestic consumption is shooting up while production is falling. Mexico’s exports could be wiped-out within five years. That means more sleepless nights for America’s leaders because Mexico is the second-biggest oil exporter to the US.

“Then there’s Russia… the biggest contributor to the growth in global energy supplies over the last decade. Output shot up from about 6 million barrels in 1996 to about 10 million barrels per day today. But the Russians say that they’ve hit peak production… so it’s all down hill from here.”