This from Investment U:

Our next President will be faced with unprecedented challenges in health care, energy, global warming, an aging infrastructure and huge “legacy” automobile businesses that are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

He’s also being presented with an incredible opportunity… one that, if implemented correctly, could have profoundly positive effects on the economic health of the world, just when we need it.

For years, the engine that fueled global economic growth was the spending of the American consumer. Market crashes because of the dot-coms and the housing boom have left many individuals with too much debt and not enough money. Americans are tapped out, and they’re closing their wallets.

Reinvigorating our economy rests upon jumpstarting consumer spending – and ultimately improving the financial condition of millions of Americans. It’s much easier said than done – and this new administration will have its work cut out for it.

If you’ve got an eye on how these government actions could benefit your bottom line, you should take a look at our past. You might find these newest sources of “economic fuel” and wealth creation look surprisingly familiar. The government’s solution could be just the thing our portfolio needs for a healthy return in the years to come…

The Cause of The Current U.S. Economic Slowdown

Ask most people to give you the cause of the current economic slowdown enveloping the United States and the rest of the world, and their likely answer will be the explosion of housing and the subsequent bubble in the credit markets.

But that was just the peak of the problem, not the beginning. The trouble has its roots in something that started 20 or 30 years ago.

That was when we started seeing the shift away from personal savings in America and toward the beginning of a huge consumer credit crisis.

And now, we are witnessing first-hand the effects of the increasing use of massive leverage can have on the markets, and ultimately on the American consumer. They’re broke and can no longer be the fuel that powers the world’s economic engine.

With consumer spending slowing, layoffs increasing and hiring all but stopped, the prospects for future economic growth aren’t particularly bright. Or are they? We have almost everything we need to fire up the world’s economic engine again: The ingenuity of the American people, plenty of factories, etc.

There’s only one thing missing… the fuel to get it going again. So what’s going to be the new “fuel?” History is a great teacher, and we need look no further than the Great Depression, and Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal.

The New Deal was a series of programs Roosevelt employed between 1933 and 1936 with the intent to provide work for the unemployed, reform of financial and business operations, and economic recovery. Here are a couple of examples:

• The Works Progress Administration (WPA) was the largest of the New Deal agencies. It alone was responsible for providing almost eight million jobs. What did all of those people do? They built public buildings, roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects. Anyone who needed a job could easily become eligible.

• Another program, created by an act of Congress in 1933, was the Tennessee Valley Authority. The TVA, as it was known, was chartered to provide food, navigation and flood control, electrical generation, fertilizer manufacturing and general economic development for the people of the Tennessee Valley, a region hard hit by the Great Depression. And it was just what the doctor ordered: The TVA’s projects were catalysts that fueled unprecedented economic growth in the area that continued through the 1960s. Today, the TVA’s 43 power plants make it one of the largest producers of power in the country.

7 Companies Profiting From a “New” New Deal

While the slowdown we are experiencing is nowhere near as severe as the Great Depression, the solution will be the creation of similar New Deal programs in two specific areas: the infrastructure and energy sectors.

More specifically, developing energy savings, making alternative forms of energy our mainstream sources, and building the green infrastructure to support what will be our growing energy independence.

More insulation in a house’s walls, lower thermostats, fluorescent bulbs, more fuel efficient cars and commercial building energy management systems are just a few of the ways to save energy. Public transportation is another. Expect the new government to provide tax incentives for these and other programs as short-term incentives to save. Companies that stand to benefit are Owens Corning (NYSE:OC): insulation, General Electric (NYSE:GE): lighting and Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI): energy management systems.

Clearly wind, solar geothermal and tidal energy companies stand to benefit, too. While a comprehensive list is beyond the scope of this article, companies like First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR): solar panels, Ormat Technologies (NYSE:ORA): geothermal and Vestas Wind Systems (PINK:VWDRY): wind turbines, will do well.

As new green sources of energy begin to come on-line in a big way, the nation’s electrical grids will have to be upgraded to move the power to where it’s needed. This is a huge project, and one of the biggest winners will be ABB (NYSE:ABB): power and automation technologies.

Ironically, the same government that’s trying to find a solution to the energy problems we face has been the biggest roadblock to solving them. The trillion dollar coal and oil subsidies prolong the carbon industry’s advantage over – and are a constant roadblock for – fledgling alternative energy companies.

The new President and his administration have an opportunity to turn the recession ship around, before it runs aground. By implementing new energy and infrastructure projects, thousands of new jobs will be provided at a time when they are desperately needed, and most importantly, these projects will provide the fuel to restart the world’s economic engine.

Source: Obama’s New “Economic Fuel”… and 7 Ways to Profit

Kinross Gold (K) tabled earnings of $26 million or $0.04 per share in the second quarter, a sharp decline from the $53 million or $0.09 per share earned in the same period a year ago. The bottom line was crushed by higher costs and lower revenues with the cost to produce an ounce of gold hitting $466. Despite the shortfall a strong gold price helped Kinross end the day up C$1.51 at C$17.75.

Aura Minerals (ORA) came out and said that it expects to see a steady state throughput of 1,200 tonnes per day for its Aranzazu project in Mexico by the fourth quarter. Aura ended the session up C$0.10 at C$1.15.

It was a good day for shareholders of Uranium One (UUU) as the company announced record production of 767,100 pounds of U308 in the second quarter with earnings ringing in at $32.9 million. Uranium One also confirmed its 2008 production target of 3.1 million pounds U3O8 and appointed Jean Nortier as president and chief executive officer. The company ended the day up C$0.43 at C$3.73.

Is it merely a dead cat bounce or is it the emergence of some strength for the beaten down resource sector? We will see what Thursday trading has in store.

Source: Resource Stock Roundup Thursday August 14, 2008

Suntech Power Holdings (STP: NYSE) has taken us on a wild ride since we added it in January 2007. Its stock price more than doubled toward the end of 2007. Then the stock dropped steeply with the market meltdown in early 2008. The stock is up about 15% overall in the past 16 months or so.Long term, I think that Suntech is a good investment with great potential. The world is building out its solar infrastructures, especially in Asia, where Suntech focuses its solar business.

It’s no secret that fossil fuels are scarce and expensive. This has been good for the likes of CONSOL Energy (CNX: NYSE) and Foundation Coal Holdings (FCL: NYSE).

But the environmental issues for coal and other hydrocarbons are profound. People are getting worried about carbon dioxide (CO2) buildup in the atmosphere. Just based on current emission trends, the earth’s atmosphere is reverting to a CO2 content not seen in over 35 million years, since late in Eocene time.

So in the space of a couple of generations, mankind is reversing tens of millions of years of atmospheric evolution. Is this a serious problem? Or is it nothing much to worry about? Well, no one knows or understands the consequences one way or the other. And don’t let anyone tell you that they do.

In the U.S., both major presidential candidates are talking favorably about a “cap and trade” system for CO2. So solar, as well as wind and geothermal [Kaydon Corp. (KDN: NYSE) and Ormat (ORA: NYSE)], are all positioned well for future advances.

I just added KHD Humboldt Wedag (KHD: NYSE) to the portfolio. It’s literally a “picks and shovels” play on the worldwide cement industry. KHD supplies the machinery and equipment that go into cement kilns.

There is just no way that the developing world can continue to develop without large amounts of cement. So KHD is another great stock for the future.

As for whether I would invest in Suntech or KHD? Well, I’d invest in both. But I think that your question is along the lines of where to invest if you only have limited funds and don’t want to spread them too thin. Fair enough.

KHD strikes me as a safer, long-term growth story. You probably will not see some big, fast run-up in KHD stock. The company is not all that sexy and has a limited following. Still, KHD should earn great profits over the next few years. People will have to buy into the story as the good news comes out. It’s like the old saying, “Slow and steady wins the race.”

On the other hand, Suntech is in the cross hairs of investors as a solar play. With the right news story in a large publication or an endorsement from a major brokerage house, Suntech could soar on short order. But a rapid rise might also be the precursor to a rapid fall. That’s the history with Suntech. A lot of people are “smash and grab” investors.

Long term, Suntech is certainly a good company. But if you’re skirting volatility, KHD wins. KHD is just a boring cement plant builder that traces its roots to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the dark forests of Germany.

Cement and Silver

While I am discussing the needs of developing countries, let me mention one other thing that people want besides cement: silver. We can’t stop using it, whether in the form of consumer electronics or as jewelry or as a store of value over time. In the developing world, silver is still the “poor man’s gold.”

Annually, the world uses about 40% more silver than it mines. The difference of “missing” silver comes from recycling, plus stockpiles. But the stockpiles are near the end. And new mine production is unable to meet demand.

So my screaming buy right now is Hecla Mining Co. (HL: NYSE). This great old silver miner’s stock is down from our entry price. But that’s OK, because you can use the opportunity to pick up more shares. Hecla holds great silver reserve and resource positions from Alaska to Central America. Hecla will be mining silver and minting money for many years to come.

That’s all for now. Until we meet again…

Byron W. King

Note: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey & Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources sign up here!

Source: Energy Q&A Part IV: Investing In Energy Stocks and More…

Oil Shortages Within 5 Years

The Financial Times wrote: “Fears of a shortage within five years propelled long-term oil futures prices well above $130 yesterday, further stoking inflationary pressures in the global economy. Investors rushed to buy oil futures contracts as far forward as December 2016, pushing prices as high as $139.50 per barrel, up $9 on the day.”

Wow. The price rises $9 in just one day? People are rushing to trade out eight years. I had to e-mail Kevin Kerr to find out if that really happens in trader land (yes). Oil traders are saying that they have never seen such a jump.

Apparently, investors are betting that oil production will soon peak due to geopolitical and geological constraints. According to Robert Hirsch, who wrote a major energy study for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005, we are more likely to see a several-year-long plateau than an actual “peak.” Still, the Peak Oil viewpoint is establishing a beachhead in the futures markets and supporting high prices. Greed and fear are just plain hitting the fan on this one.

Veteran oilman T. Boone Pickens has been beating the drum on this topic for quite a while. In Houston last October, Mr. Pickens told me, “All the world can produce is 85 million barrels of oil per day. But the world demand is nearer 87 million. Something has to give. It’s the price.” And Mr. Pickens has repeated that comment many times since then.

Apparently, the markets are listening to Mr. Pickens. On a large scale, investors are shifting their energy focus from the short to the medium term. Beyond the medium term, fears for future oil supply dominate the thinking. Since January 2008, long-term futures oil contracts, such as those for delivery in 2016, have jumped almost 60%. Near-term prices have gone up 35%.

I just hope that you have been following the Outstanding Investments energy recommendations over the past year or so. My goal has always been to align the portfolio with the energy-scarce future. I want you to benefit from these macro trends.

The View From Chevron

I had the recent opportunity to interview Peter Robertson, vice chairman of the giant oil company Chevron Corp. The American Petroleum Institute arranged the call. Mr. Robertson was in Washington, D.C., to testify before the U.S. Congress on — you guessed it — energy issues. Mr. Robertson made some time available to talk about the oil business with your humble editor.

Mr. Robertson focused on the oil markets from the perspective of what he knows best. That is, what does he see every day as he runs Chevron? “The U.S. market is well supplied” with oil and refined products, he said. In fact, “gasoline demand is down” in the U.S. That is, Chevron has seen a 1.5% decrease in gasoline demand. (Exxon has reported as much as 4% demand drop in some parts of the country.)

“What is causing angst is crude prices,” Mr. Robertson added. But Chevron has no control over the world price of oil. Chevron just accepts whatever price the world marketplace sets. With 9,800 gas stations nestled among the 160,000 total in the U.S., Chevron is hardly in a position to move the U.S. market for motor fuel one way or the other. Chevron just reacts to demand trends. Chevron does not cause them.

Chevron buys and sells about 2 million barrels of oil per day, according to Mr. Robertson. But these are “real” barrels, as opposed to trading futures. That is, Chevron either takes delivery or releases crude from inventory. So the company gets its hands dirty in the old-fashioned oil business. It does not speculate in the futures markets.

According to Mr. Robertson, in the first quarter of 2008, Chevron “made no money in the downstream business,” referring to the refining and marketing of refined products. He characterized it this way: “Downstream operations are not taking money out of the market. It’s all the cost of crude oil and taxes.”

This made me wonder how much higher fuel prices would be if refining DID take money out of the market. From what I know, gasoline at $3.75 per gallon reflects oil at $110-115 per barrel. At $140? The price of gasoline has more to go on the upside. Time to stop driving that SUV down to the strip mall to buy a box of Kleenex, right?

As an aside to Mr. Robertson’s comment on taxes, let me note that one recent study reviewed the total taxes paid by the top 27 energy-producing companies in the U.S. In 2006, the 27 largest energy companies paid more than $81 billion in income taxes, resulting in a 37% overall effective tax rate. That figure is higher than the top U.S. corporate tax rate of 35%.

Mr. Robertson notes that over the past six years, Chevron has earned about $72 billion total in after-tax profits. And it has invested over $73 billion in new energy and energy-related projects. So Chevron is investing more into its future asset base than it earns.

Interestingly, Chevron is the largest private producer of geothermal power in the world. Chevron sees a solid investment climate and return for geothermal in the U.S. This is of interest to me because I have five much smaller geothermal companies listed in my Energy & Scarcity Investor publication. All five aspire to be the Chevrons of the geothermal future. I won’t list the five names here, but I have recommended geothermal player Ormat (ORA: NYSE) for Outstanding Investments.

Mr. Robertson discussed Chevron’s efforts to assure future supplies of oil and natural gas. In the Gulf of Mexico alone, Chevron is the lead player or interest-holding partner to 40 different projects. Each project represents a commitment in excess of $1 billion by Chevron. The major constraint for Chevron to invest more hinges on its ability to obtain skilled personnel and to find vendors that can supply equipment and services.

According to Mr. Robertson, “Our personnel constraints are not just within Chevron, but with our contractors. The contracting community shrank in the days of cheap oil. Now the contractor community needs to grow.”

Of interest, about two-thirds of the total Chevron investment of $73 billion over the past six years has been outside the U.S. This is because of the level of restrictions on investing in energy projects domestically. Chevron would like to invest more in the U.S., but the national (and some state) investment policies discourage it.

For example, Chevron has struggled for several years just to obtain permits to upgrade its refinery at Richmond, Calif. Chevron is still waiting for approvals, but meanwhile, it’s operating one of the oldest refineries on the West Coast.

During this same time, India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. has constructed a new, state-of-the-art 600,000 barrel per day refinery in India. That refinery exports product to the U.S. West Coast market. So instead of having a more efficient Chevron refinery near San Francisco, drivers in California are buying fuel imported from India.