As the impact of the global credit crunch rumbles on, we’re seeing a very interesting divergence in the performance of the Asian economies. The countries that are still bound to the American eagle are heading for the doldrums. But the ones that have chained themselves to the Chinese dragon are roaring ahead.

You see, despite all the babble about a global economic slowdown, China is still booming. Its economy grew by a white-hot 10.6% in the first quarter of this year. And that’s despite all the efforts of the Beijing government to slow things down…

So, the commodity-rich Asian countries that supply China’s industrial machine, like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, are surviving the global economic downturn well enough. In fact, they’re seeing exports boom…

But not every Asian country is benefiting. The Asian countries that rely on electronics shipments for the bulk of their exports, like Singapore and the Philippines, are being hit by the US slowdown.
The numbers say it all

Just look at the figures. This week, Malaysia announced a 21% jump in exports in April from a year earlier. What are they selling to the rest of the world? Let’s see…palm oil exports are up by 71%, crude oil exports by 53% and exports of natural gas by 26%. Electronic-component exports were up by just 12.5%. The electronics industry used to be the crown jewel of Malaysia’s export industry. And most of those components used to go to the U.S. We’re seeing a massive shift in the centre of economic gravity here.

Same thing in Thailand. The country’s exports jumped 28% from a year earlier. And a good part of that comes down to the soaring prices of rice and other agricultural products.

Indonesia’s monthly exports have just hit a new record of $11.9 billion in March, as well. No prizes for guessing what they’ve been selling…crude palm oil (Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer), natural gas, timber, coal…

Indonesia’s coal story is something that I’ve written about recently. Coal is the new gold. And Indonesia has some of the most exciting coal companies on the planet. We’re watching that situation very carefully…looking for a chance to get in…

And then India has reported a 32% rise in exports… The gist of this story is that if you’ve got what China needs right now, you’re in the money.

And The Dragon isn’t just dragging along a bunch of small Third World economies either. Even developed economies like Japan are getting a boost from China’s rise. The Japanese have sold so much industrial machinery and parts to China that their economy grew by 3.3% in the first three months of this year from the year before.

But here is the bit that really excites me: what China is doing for Asia, it’s now doing for Africa as well. It’s locking the Dark Continent into its economic orbit. And Profit Hunter readers have bought into this boom right on the ground floor.

From basket-case to oil exporter…

It has already invested $30 billion in Africa’s oil and gas industry. And most of that has gone to places that most Western investors would never have touched: Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Nigeria….

Now it plans on investing $5 billion in the West African country of Niger. This is one of the poorest countries on earth. It ranks in the bottom five on the United Nations’ human development index. And the country is battling an insurgency by the magnificently blue-cloaked, be-turbaned, camel-riding Tuareg nomads in the north of the country. But the Chinese don’t seem remotely concerned. They plan to pump the country’s first barrel of oil next year. And to get it out of the country, they are going build a 2000-kilometre oil pipeline and a refinery with a capacity of 20,000 barrels a day.

Here’s another country about to become an economic annexe of the Middle Kingdom…

The new king of the African oil patch

While we’re on the African oil industry, here’s a bit of very interesting news. Angola has now dethroned Nigeria as Africa’s biggest oil producer. Nigeria has held the top spot for decades. But militant attacks in the oil rich Niger Delta and worker strikes have undermined the country’s oil industry. In April, Angola produced 1.87 million barrels of oil per day. Nigeria produced 1.81 million barrels.

We aren’t in Nigeria. But our brilliant African play puts us in the thick of Angola’s booming economy. It owns airlines in the region and is setting-up a massive logistics centre in the country’s capital, Luanda.

Source: China Invests Billions In Africa And We’re Set To Book a Massive Profit

For almost five decades, Indonesia held a unique position as the only Asian member of the OPEC oil-exporters’ cartel. When it joined OPEC in 1962, it was Southeast Asia’s undisputed energy giant. But yesterday marked the end of an era for the country. Indonesia has formally withdrawn from the oil cartel.

You see, the country’s oil production hit a peak in 1976. And In the early 90’s it was still producing about 1.7 million barrels per day. But ageing oil fields and a lack of investment has seen falling production since 1995. The country now produces about 800,000 barrels per day and it’s been a net oil importer since 2005. Its days in OPEC were obviously numbered.

It’s big news in the oil industry, but I think that the country’s withdrawal from OPEC is really a bit of a non-event — at least from an investor’s point of view. Indonesia is still a major energy exporter. The country is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal, which is widely used in the power sector. It is the world’s second biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the Gulf state of Qatar. And it has recently overtaken Malaysia as the world’s biggest producer of palm oil as well.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.03 million barrels per day this year. And about 70 per cent of that additional demand is going to come from Asia. But it’s not just oil. Asia’s growing economies are fuelling demand for just about all forms of energy. And Indonesia is well placed to profit from it.

Coal is gold…

The country is sitting on about 90.5 billion tons of coal. And demand for the stuff is surging. In fact, Indonesian companies are now selling coal to Japanese buyers at double last year’s prices. So, investors have been flooding into the sector. Indonesia’s biggest coal miner, Bumi Resources, has seen its share price soar by about 431 per cent in the last year. Its market cap is now $16.4bn

Now the country’s second and third biggest coal miners are planning on floating on the markets as well. Number two producer, Adaro Energy, is planning a Rp12,000 billion ($1.3bn), public offering. That will make it the biggest IPO in Indonesia’s history. And it’s going to be the world’s 8th biggest IPO this year.

Adaro has already pulled in top international investors. 64% of the company is controlled by two Indonesian strategic investors. But 36 per cent of the shares are owned by major global investors, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation.

And demand for the IPO has been huge. In March, the company announced that it planned to raise $500 million. Then, earlier this month, they raised that to about $1 billion…and then $1.3 billion…

The Adarco IPO is scheduled for next month. The country’s second biggest coal miner Indika Inti Energy plans on raising $300 million through selling an 18 per cent stake in an IPO shortly before the Adarco float. Both these IPOs are probably going to do well. Investors and speculators who missed out on Bumi Resources’ rally will probably try to get in early this time… a move I see as being quite sensible.

Bumi Resources is one to watch…

The two new coal IPO’s might take some of the wind out of Bumi’s sails. And if we see that happen, a fantastic buying opportunity will present itself.

Just consider: China is building new coal-fired power plants at a rate of about one per week! And then there is India. Asia’s other giant plans on adding more than 400,000 Megawatts of new capacity by 2030 — and the bulk of that is going to be powered by coal. So, the coal story still has a long way to go. In the months to come there could be moves to be made… and a second chance for anyone who missed out the first time around.

I’ll keep you posted.

Regards

Manraaj Singh
Profit Hunter
Editor

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Source: Careful Timing Could Mean Big Profits From The Worlds No.1 Coal Exporter