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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Panic Of 1907</title>
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		<title>Profiting from the Fed&#8217;s Secret Meetings</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/profiting-from-the-feds-secret-meetings/971</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/profiting-from-the-feds-secret-meetings/971#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Apr 2008 21:30:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Sjuggerud</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bear Stearns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hank Paulson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JP Morgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Panic Of 1907]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Share Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury Secretary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U S Treasury]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">JPMorgan and the U.S. Treasury just saved us from the real  risk of Depression&#8230;It was the Panic of &#8216;07. The economy was weakening. Stocks were falling. Banks had lent too much and were now seriously tightening up. It all came to a head when a major bank was about to fail. Something had to be done.</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><br />
The U.S. Treasury understood the risk of a downward spiral. So after a secret meeting, it took the surprising step of providing a whopping $30 million to JPMorgan and other bankers. The goal was huge&#8230; it was to save the U.S. financial system. In hindsight, it worked&#8230;</font></p>
<p>Ultimately, the speedy actions of JPMorgan and the Treasury marked the bottom in the banking crisis and the stock&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">JPMorgan and the U.S. Treasury just saved us from the real  risk of Depression&#8230;It was the Panic of &#8216;07. The economy was weakening. Stocks were falling. Banks had lent too much and were now seriously tightening up. It all came to a head when a major bank was about to fail. Something had to be done.</font><span id="more-971"></span><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><br />
The U.S. Treasury understood the risk of a downward spiral. So after a secret meeting, it took the surprising step of providing a whopping $30 million to JPMorgan and other bankers. The goal was huge&#8230; it was to save the U.S. financial system. In hindsight, it worked&#8230;</p>
<p>Ultimately, the speedy actions of JPMorgan and the Treasury marked the bottom in the banking crisis and the stock market.</p>
<p>Wait a minute! There&#8217;s something wrong with that story&#8230;   Can you figure it out?</p>
<p>This was the Panic of 1907! The story today is similar to 100 years ago&#8230; only it&#8217;s billions instead of millions from the government to save the financial system&#8230;</p>
<p>After our multiple credit crises in 2007, it all came to a  head last month.</p>
<p>Once again, JPMorgan and the government got to together. The government provided roughly $30 billion in guarantees to JPMorgan, for Morgan to take over Bear Stearns.</p>
<p>Importantly for you and me, after the bailout in 1907,  stocks (as measured by the Dow) doubled in two years.</p>
<p>I believe we&#8217;ll be able to look back on March 2008 – when the government and JPMorgan got together in secret to save the financial system – as the bottom in share prices. I could be wrong of course. But from here, I believe stocks could do very well, just as they did after the 1907 JPMorgan bailout&#8230;</p>
<p>Earlier this month, our current Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson released a 218-page proposal, in part arguing the Federal Reserve should be granted exceptional new powers to deal with crises.</p>
<p>Once again, history repeats&#8230;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m writing to you from the Jekyll Island Club&#8230; It is the resort in Georgia where it&#8217;s said the Federal Reserve was created, after the Panic of 1907.</p>
<p>Back then, a half-dozen men – supposedly representing a sixth of the world&#8217;s wealth – sneaked out of New York and headed to this nearly deserted Georgia island. They lived here for a week under such secrecy they didn&#8217;t use their real names (so the servants wouldn&#8217;t know what was going on). B.C. Forbes called it &#8220;the strangest, most secret expedition in American finance.&#8221;</p>
<p>Personally, I think many Jekyll Island-style meetings have been happening in the last month. I think many departments of government finally got sufficiently scared. And they&#8217;re now in hyper &#8220;fix it&#8221; mode.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not a fan of government intervention in markets, as the usual result is a colossal waste of taxpayer money. The only time intervention has a chance of working is if we are close to a turning point anyway&#8230; Then sometimes a nudge from the government starts the pendulum swinging quicker and more powerfully in its new direction. That&#8217;s where I believe we are.</p>
<p>If this is the case, once again, we need to be looking to buy financial stocks. With the Fed now proving it&#8217;ll provide a backstop to the financial system, the argument is only getting stronger&#8230;</p>
<p>Financial stocks have been beaten up. Most of them deserved it. Like UBS, which announced this week its subprime writedowns are up to $37 billion, many big banks took too much risk and bought &#8220;derivatives&#8221; they didn&#8217;t fully understand. Now they&#8217;re paying for it.</p>
<p>But some banks didn&#8217;t do stupid things. The thing is, there are literally thousands of financial companies. Looking for the needle in the haystack – the one bank that didn&#8217;t get into U.S. subprime real estate, didn&#8217;t invest in all these exotic financial instruments, and didn&#8217;t take on too much risk – is hard work!</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;- Advertisement &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<br />
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<p></font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">In the latest issue of my newsletter <em>Sjuggerud  Confidential</em>, out on Wednesday, I recommended to my paid subscribers a bank that may be the world&#8217;s most conservative. It avoided all those complicated derivatives. I think our upside is 50% in the next 12 months in this one.</p>
<p>I wish I could share the name of it with you&#8230; but it wouldn&#8217;t be fair to my paid subscribers. However, I can share another idea that should also do well&#8230; I like it so much, I recommended it a few months ago in my newsletter <em><a href="http://www.stansberryresearch.com/PRO/0802TRWSEC49/ETRWJ318/200802REN-SEC-49.html"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">True Wealth</a></em>.</p>
<p>It is the KBW Regional Bank exchange-traded fund. The symbol  is KRE.</p>
<p>This is basically an index fund of smaller regional banks. The idea is, the smaller regional banks didn&#8217;t try to get as crafty as the big banks like UBS.</p>
<p>Instead of doing exotic, risky things, they stuck closer to the simple business of taking in deposits at a low interest rate, and making loans at a higher one.</p>
<p>The banks in this KBW Regional Bank fund trade at as small a premium over book value as we&#8217;ve seen in bank stocks in over a dozen years. The fund pays a nice dividend, too. It holds roughly 50 different regional banks, so your risk is diversified. If one bank has problems&#8230; the other 50 can more than make up for it.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">How high could it rise? In 1907, it took two years for stocks to double. I think today, we can see the same kind of move, in the same time frame, in regional banks. You can learn a bit more about this fund by typing its symbol into the search box at the fund&#8217;s website: <a href="http://www.sgafunds.com/" target="_blank">www.sgafunds.com</a>.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Well, I&#8217;m off to breakfast here at the Jekyll Island Club&#8230;   which is served in the Federal Reserve room, I believe&#8230;</p>
<p>History often rhymes in finance. It&#8217;s rhyming now. Take  advantage of it.</p>
<p>Good investing,</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Steve </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">P.S. To read   my entire write up on the &#8220;backstop&#8221; the government is providing investors,   check out the April issue of <em>True Wealth</em>. It contains my favorite way to profit from the huge government intervention I just described. The potential here is hundreds of percent over the next few years. <a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1462723/29576349/843110/0/" target="_blank">Click here</a> to learn more about <em>True   Wealth</em>.</font></p>
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