For many investors, a low Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is a sign of value. But don’t you bet on it – at least, not yet. According to Michael T. Darda, chief economist for MKM Partners LLC, analysts have overestimated earnings by an average of 30% to 35% in the last three recessions. For millions of investors who use low P/E ratios as a litmus test for selecting their investments, that’s going to be a rather unpleasant shock.

Global investors seeking undervalued markets might want to look at Russia, China, India, Malaysia, South Korea or Brazil. And if they want to avoid overvalued markets, they’d be best to eschew Italy, the United States, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, or Germany.