Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks » Pension Funds

Ready to Retire? Think Again

Andrew Snyder — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 21:08:41 +0000

Retirement is part of the American dream. Unfortunately, the nation’s financial meltdown is making the act tougher than ever. Social Security alone won’t pay the bills.

Yesterday evening, I had the courage to do something I have not done in a long time. I opened my 401(k) statement. It was a brave, bold move that made me ponder doubling up on my blood-pressure medicine before ripping the seal off the envelope.

In the end, my ticker was fluttering with beats of joy: up 33% so far this year.

My decision to overweight the small-cap sector in March paid off.

Even with those strong gains, the long-term trend line shows my heart is going to have to keep pumping for a couple extra years before my wife and I are going to retire in paradise. Most retirement accounts, mine included, are nowhere close to where they were 24 months ago.

As the recipient of a defined-contribution plan, my retirement savings are in my hands. That is not the case for the folks still holding defined-benefit plans. These pensions, once considered a low-risk path towards a reliable retirement income, are becoming far riskier than many workers ever imagined.

As corporate balance sheets crumble under the weight of massive debt loads and reduced revenues, many companies are having a tough time coming up with their required pension payments.

Read through the financial rags and you will see companies are unleashing new shares of stock just to cover their obligations, skipping payments and backing out of pension obligations all together. It is not good news for the folks that depend on the funds to put food on their table.

It is also equally not good for those of us that rely on the equities markets.

More trouble ahead

Look at it this way. Institutional investors are responsible for about 20% of total equity assets. Out of that $20 trillion or so, pension funds are responsible for 40% of the trades. That is a lot of cash.

Unfortunately, many corporate and government plans are underfunded, meaning they have some major catching up to do.

A recent study shows over 20% of funds have “significantly higher” required contributions coming up. In many of those cases, the obligations add up to an increase of 50% or more.

That’s a big problem when many of those companies and governments are fighting just to make their weekly payroll.

There is no doubt we will see a wave of payment defaults in the near future. That means less money – much less money – will flow into the nation’s equity markets.

It is still too early to tell just how badly this will impact the markets, but there is no question it will be significant.

Dow 14,000 once again? Not anytime soon if corporation pensions fall apart.

Source: Ready to Retire? Think Again

Total Cost of the Bailouts, Symposium Synopsis, How to Pick a Gold Miner and More!

Ian Mathias — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 15:00:52 +0000

Government inspector general pegs maximum bailout bill… almost double annual U.S. GDP… Marc Faber on the future of the U.S. economy and an outlook for the S&P… A 30-second roundup of the Investment Symposium’s first day… buys, sells and trends you can’t miss… Pension funds in peril… America’s two largest announce $100 billion loss, more to come… Frank Holmes on the three most important value drivers of a gold mining stock…

“The total potential federal government support could reach up to $23.7 trillion,” said Neil Barofsky this week. He’s the special inspector general for the TARP — one of the government’s many bailout programs dumping billions upon billions. Say again… this whole mess could put U.S. taxpayers on the hook for just under $24 trillion.

Barosfky’s report was self-admittedly an overblown worst-case scenario… for example, it assumes that every mortgage loan on Fannie and Freddie’s books will go bad and that every government-aided bank will go bust. (Heh, we like this guy).

But we see why he bothered crunching all the numbers for a scenario that will never happen (or if it were to happen, no one would really care what the exact cost would be). This is what your government is willing to do in order to maintain the status quo. Votes for this year’s election are worth $24 trillion for tomorrow’s generation.

So when Congress asked, hey Neil, what’s your real guess? $3 trillion, he responded. Phew, what a relief!
“You cannot create prosperity through money printing and debt growth,” Dr. Marc Faber told us yesterday. Dr. Faber was the first speaker of our Investment Symposium and he preached an idea that is already becoming a theme of the event: Government fiscal and monetary intervention, “can postpone, but not prevent crisis…

“I believe next year’s economy will face even larger deficits. Their deficit is attempting to stimulate credit growth. Unless real credit growth returns, they will have to put more and more money into the system to maintain the status quo. All polices target consumption. That is a mistake.”

So what’s this mean for the market?

“The S&P 500 will not recover to 2007 highs. At the peak, 44% of the S&P was the financial sector. That is gone… not coming back.”
And since it’s our nature to cook things down and serve them in tasty little bits, here are some rapid-fire, take ’em or leave ’em themes to the first day of our Investment Symposium:

Do not expect a V-shaped market recovery. The crisis aftermath will be long and volatile
Short U.S. bonds
Technology breakthroughs in DNA over the next few decades will be akin to the Internet and computing breakthroughs of the last 20 years
Either invest like a contrarian or suffer like a victim (Rick Rule’s mantra)
Buy alt energy, especially geothermal
Buy commodities, particularly grains.

Of course, we can’t hope to accurately summarize six hours of yesterday’s presentations in our humble 5 Min. That’s why you should check out the Symposium CD/MP3 set. It’ll have every minute of every presentation, notes from the private breakout sessions and all the specific stocks and funds our speakers recommend (we’ve already heard at least half a dozen.) Get details here… since it’s still early in the game, the set is priced at a discount.
The market rallied yesterday, in spite of Dr. Faber’s warning.The Dow and S&P 500 inched up 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively, led mostly by more blue chip earnings beats. The one that really caught our eye was Caterpillar. The company jumped 8% after beating earnings by a mile and issuing a pretty rosy outlook.
“Caterpillar is the crown jewel of American industry,”notes Jim Nelson. “It represents the engine of the blue-collar world — at least in the U.S. CAT makes everything from bulldozers — needed for nearly every road and construction project in the country — to turbines — needed to keep the lights on in the U.S.

“The company’s customer base reaches from Canada to Indonesia…from China to Chile. There’s almost no developed or even developing country in the world that doesn’t show Caterpillar some business.

“So what does this quarter’s profits mean for CAT, the U.S. and the rest of the world? It means that either the stimulus plans worldwide are starting to work or we are turning a corner on this recession…or both.

“We’re not calling for the recovery to start now, and we certainly aren’t calling for the bottom of the market. But we are pointing out the No. 1 indicator. We’ll know when the economy is back on track when Caterpillar starts performing like years past.”

Jim is at the helm of one of our newest publications, Lifetime Income Report. If you seek steady, dividend-yielding companies with long-term upside potential, he’s your man. Learn more here.
Yesterday also marked a big win for the year-to-date stock market. The major indexes have recovered from the muddling about over the last six weeks and are now at or near YTD highs. The S&P is now at its highest level in eight months. The Dow is close behind, at a six-month high.

The Nasdaq has been particularly strong lately, as you can see above. Its 0.4% rise yesterday marked the 10th day in a row of gains. The Nasdaq didn’t have a winning streak like that even at the height of the tech boom. You’d have to go back to July 1997 to find a track record like that.

Now, we don’t have anything against tech. In fact, after Juan Enriquez’s presentation yesterday — which completely redefined what we think about biotechnology — we’re excited for the future of tech. But a streak like that in an economy like this? Hmm…
The two biggest state pension funds in the U.S. have lost $100 billion, and they’re about to lose more. Yesterday CalPERS and the California State Teachers’ Retirement System revealed annual fiscal year losses of $56.2 and $43.4 billion, respectively. That’s about a quarter of the value of both portfolios.

CalPERS and California state teachers have it especially bad… unemployment in that state is higher than most, which will limit money flowing into the funds. And just yesterday, Gov. Schwarzenegger announced all kinds of plans to bridge the budget gap that will be detrimental to the funds.

But what really bothers us… both funds, and most around the country, are still counting on La-La Land returns for the foreseeable future. CalPERS, for example, needs a 7.75% annual return for the next two years or it will have to ask the government and municipalities to hike contributions in order to pay for new retirees. That’s no problem, as the fund said in a statement yesterday that its “long-term 20-year investment return remained positive at 7.75%.” Heh… so of course, it’s reasonable to assume the next 20 will be just as pleasant.
BTW, CalPERS sued Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s last week for its role in grossly overrating toxic assets during the credit boom.

“I will make a prediction,” said Barry Ritholtz, who is spoke in today’s session, “that CalPERS is going to torment these guys until someone is in prison.”

Barry himself has an interesting history with rating agencies. His book, Bailout Nation, included a scathing (and deserving) attack at the ratings agencies. When his publisher, McGraw-Hill (which also owns Standard & Poor’s) found out about it, they squashed his deal.
“Job insecurity, together with declines in home values and tight credit, is likely to limit gains in consumer spending,” Ben Bernanke testified on the Hill yesterday. Should that continue, Mr. Bernanke so eloquently suggested that a recovery could “prove transient.” Wait… so if credit tightens, unemployment rises and consumer spending falls, the economy will get worse? Thanks, Ben.
After its recent fall, the dollar index has entered a tight range. It’s been bouncing between 78.6-79 all week.
“If the dollar goes back to where it was a year a go, gold will be $1,200 an ounce,” Frank Holmes forecast yesterday in his presentation. Mining Journal named Frank the best mining fund manger in the world… so when he talks gold, we tend to sit up and pay attention.

The dollar index’s low last year was around 72.3.
The dollar’s narrow trading band has given gold a small range too. Since rising to $955 Monday, the spot price has largely stayed put.
And if you’re on the hunt for a gold mining stock, check out this snippet from Frank’s presentation: “In all the research we’ve done, the key to success is finding miners with growth in production, growth in cash flow and growth in reserves. They are the three key value drivers. If the stock has positive momentum on top of it, even better.”
Oil’s holding steady too today, at $64 a barrel.
“Notwithstanding your expressed distaste,” writes a reader, “for some of the elements of California’s budget solution, I think at least part of you should be cheering the fact that the state did gore some sacred cows by reducing $15 billion in program funding and (because compromise is part of our government) having the taxpayers shoulder a smaller part of the burden in the form of $4 billion in new taxes. Is this not the sort of solution that we should all be encouraging our federal legislators to make to balance the national budget…. rather than this insane bailout strategy that they are following?

“My textbook learning on fiscal restraint indicates that when your revenues can’t cover all the legislated services and special interest programs so in vogue when times are good (and believe me, California leads the pack), you need to pare them back to what is affordable. Spread the pain. I’m sure you know already that our tax rates in California are quite a bit more than in most states, but it’s unrealistic to think program cuts will be the total answer given the diversity of interests out there… the ratio agreed to by the legislature and governor seems like a fair attempt to get the state back into operation.

“You were right to call out the accounting trick of pushing a payday forward — but if you really want to talk budget tricks, you could write a huge book on such things, as our national Congress has become expert in regarding unrealistic projections and other interesting devices to justify more spending. I’d like to see the other states in trouble work their own compromises and then all of us press our national government to show some intestinal fortitude to paring back programs until spending equals revenues.

“While taking issue with you on this one point — I’m extraordinarily thankful for your daily newsletter and your editorial courage… and our ability to disagree and still support each other in our larger goals for the nation!”

Source: Total Cost of the Bailouts, Symposium Synopsis, How to Pick a Gold Miner and More!

U.S. Bailout Plan Infringes Upon Basic Property Rights

Peter D. Schiff — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:02:01 +0000

“Crony capitalism” is a term often applied to foreign nations where government interference circumvents market forces. The practice is widely associated with tin-pot dictators and second-rate economies. In such a system, support for the ruling regime is the best and only path to economic success. Who you know supersedes what you know, and favoritism trumps the rule of law.

Unfortunately, last week’s events demonstrate that the phrase now more aptly describes our own country.

Last Monday (June 8), the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal from Chrysler LLC’s secured creditors based on the government’s argument that the needs of other stakeholders outweighed those of a few creditors. In this case, the Obama administration concluded the interests of the United Auto Workers outweighed the interests of the Indiana teachers and firemen whose pension fund sued to block the restructuring. Given the enormous financial support that the UAW poured into the Obama campaign, such partiality is hardly surprising.

When making their investment in Chrysler just a few months ago, the Indiana pension fund agreed to commit capital because of the specific assurances received from the company. In allowing this sham bankruptcy to be crammed through the courts, we have shredded the vital principal of the rule of law, and have become a nation of men, rather than one of laws.

The risk that legal contracts can now be arbitrarily set aside will make investors think twice before committing capital to distressed corporations. Oftentimes, enforcing contracts imposes hardships. That’s precisely why we have contracts.

Without absolute faith that deals will be honored, it will be extremely difficult for U.S. companies to borrow money. This will be particularly true for those companies already struggling with too much debt. Without the ability to issue secured debt, how will such companies access the necessary capital to turn around? If secured creditors cannot count on the courts to enforce their claims, they will not put their capital at risk. What good is being a secured creditor if courts can allow the assets securing your claim to be sold for the benefit of others?

Another problem with the government imposing losses on secured Chrysler creditors is that in its bailouts of financial companies [such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG)], the government took steps to specifically pay back creditors, even when those creditors should have been wiped out.

This inconsistency and lack of equal protection further undermines faith in our economy.

The message here is clear: Loan money to financial entities with friends in Washington and no matter how risky the loan, taxpayers will bail you out if it goes bad. However, loan money to a unionized manufacturer, even if prudently secured by real assets, and you are as likely to get your money back as police have of finding Jimmy Hoffa’s body.

As if this wasn’t bad enough, testimony on Thursday from former Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis revealed a concerted effort on the part of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and former Treasury SecretaryHenry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr. to pressure Lewis into hiding relevant financial information regarding Merrill Lynch (NYSE: SKP) losses from BofA shareholders. Recently released e-mails make it clear that the government threatened to remove corporate leaders if they failed to go through with the merger and keep quiet about the losses.

Again, the justification for the interference seemed to be the “greater economic good” the merger would serve. The right of BofA shareholders to be informed that their company was about to buy a financial black hole was clearly considered to be an acceptable sacrifice.

More importantly, the fact that two of the highest-ranking government officials can conspire to violate both securities laws and private property rights is abhorrent to everything America supposedly stands for. If they get away with it, which I believe they will, the precedent and the message will be chilling.

As a broker who specializes in foreign investments, I am always wary of political risk. I must consider how the threat of arbitrary government action could undermine the value of my investments. However, recent events show that political risk is now greater here than abroad, and U.S. assets, which have historically traded at premium valuations based on faith in our legal system, will soon trade at discounts to reflect this new threat. The fear of having contracts abrogated or property rights violated when doing so serves some contrived greater good will substantially raise our cost of capital and further reduce our competitiveness.

Source: U.S. Bailout Plan Infringes Upon Basic Property Rights

The Dollar Comes Back!

Chuck Butler — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:26:57 +0000

The dollar fights back! … Soros sinks the euro… Bad data yesterday… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

OK, front and center this morning, yesterday I printed a quote from Karl Marx. This had been sent to me from a source that I didn’t feel as though I needed to research first. Unfortunately, as MANY of you let me know… The quote had some major errors in it. So… I apologize… I hope I didn’t burn any confidence in me with that error… I’ll do much more due diligence in the future!

The euro saw a huge sell off yesterday, and it wasn’t a case of “lets buy the dollar and sell the euro” it was a case of “lets sell the euro”… I think the latter is the worse… Here are the reasons I saw that caused this selling of the euro, and further down the line with the other currencies as well.

1. Soros says euro may not survive crisis without global plan…
2. There’s a potential for a ‘buy American’ rider in the stimulus package sparking debate on the impact on global trade
3. There was a rumor going around that the four largest pension funds in Netherlands saw their assets drop by euro 72 Billion due to the credit crisis, all are allegedly under funded.
4. The Risk Takers are hiding under rocks again…

This is the Obama bounce I’ve been talking about folks… Stocks may still be taking it on the chin, but the dollar part of the bounce is front and center!

How many people follow Glenn Beck? As you know, last summer, I wrote an article for his website on the dollar, and the loss of purchasing power. He had heard about me, when reading Craig Karmin’s Biography of the dollar, which has a chapter on me! Well… I believe that Glenn has taken my stuff and run with it… Last night, he did a great job of showing everyone the money supply that has gone off the charts since last September. He got the data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, so it’s not like he made the stuff up! I love what he’s calling our money supply and debt situation… “An Inconvenient Deficit” Obviously, it’s a spin-off of Al Gore’s movie…

The deficit and money supply is really getting out of hand folks… I know, I’ll have a few readers send me notes telling me that the money supply stuff is wrong… But, I’ll stick with the data from the St. Louis Fed…

This un-dynamic duo of deficit and money supply, only has one ending folks… And it ends up in tears for the dollar…

But in the meantime, the dollar bulls have the dollar moving higher once again, with the euro trading all the way down to trade with a 1.28 handle.

Well… In the data yesterday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which were forecast to be below 500K, repeated the previous week’s high of 585K, with an increase to 588K! UGH! I’ve never figured out why these figures don’t feed into the monthly Jobs Jamboree numbers… You would think that you take the weekly figures by 4, and voila! But, that’s not how it works, boys and girls… The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets to put their hands in the cookie jar and act like they know what they’re doing!

In other data, New Home Sales fell 14.7% in December to 331,000. Now, that might not sound too bad on the outside…(apparently it wasn’t to the media, for they “forgot” to include this part when reporting the data yesterday) But, when you figure in the fact that the latest 15% plunge to 331K now takes New Home Sales to the lowest since the series began in 1963, breaking below the previous low of 338K in 1981. Add to that the fact that… Sales are down 75% from its peak in mid-2005. And to finish this data set off… Something that leads me to believe we have more suffering in housing to go… The month’s supply of homes reached a new record high of 12.9 months (the 20-year average is 5.7). Can you say… inventories remain too high?

And finally, durable-goods orders decreased by 2.6% in December… UGH! The economy just continues to show more rot on the vine… Even more than most economists had forecast, for sure… There was one economist that was the front runner to all this mess, forecasting it, and being cast as a doom and gloom guy. But now receiving vindication… That’s Nouriel Roubini, who’s in Davos Switzerland this week at the World Economic Forum… That’s where the great quotes from Jamie Dimon came from yesterday… Let’s see if Nouriel Roubini threw us a bone or two…

Roubini said yesterday, that “the worse lies ahead. Banks face bigger credit losses than they realize, more financial companies will require state takeovers and the world economy will keep shrinking throughout 2009, he says. The consensus is catching up with me, but it’s still behind,” Roubini said in an interview in Davos. I don’t know what some people are smoking.”

We’ll get some inkling of the depths the economy has fallen to this morning, when 4th QTR GDP prints… The forecast is for a negative -5.5% to print… And when we see the “makeup” of the growth, and see that without the Gov’t spending it would have been much worse… Somebody had better think twice about suggesting this recession will be “V” shaped…

Oh… And my friends over at Critical Factors research, (they track recessions, and confirmed my call last year at this time that we had moved into a recession) sent me a note about the Leading Indicators data that printed the other day. You may recall that I was surprised to see the Leading Indicators rise? Well, looks like there’s an explanation for that… And to that explanation I turn to my friends at Critical Factors…

“Yes, The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3 percent, but note this quote from their press release: “The LEI rose modestly in December, mainly due to the continued and very large positive contribution from real money supply.”

>>>> yes, there’s that “money supply” thing again!

In Germany this morning, inflation bumped higher last month to 1.1%, but still below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ceiling target of 2%… With Oil prices being pulled up from the ashes, I’m sure the ECB ministers are watching it closely. One thing to remember when thinking of the ECB, and the euro… The ECB has a MANDATE from the Maastricht Treaty, the document that formed the European Union, to provide price stability… That means they are inflation fighters in earnest… Not just guys that decide to become one when it becomes fashionable… Read Fed Reserve…

OK… I want to go back to the Soros statement above that ripped the euro yesterday… Don’t you just love the media? They report this, when Soros probably was dissing the dollar for an hour and casually mentioned that without a global plan the euro is in trouble… Of course he could have said any currency for that matter! I think you have to take what a George Soros says with trepidation… He’s a sly fox, and only says things to move markets that he’s trading in… He’s made millions with this practice… So… For all we know, he could have been short euros, and needed the price to get lower to cover the short! Nah… He wouldn’t do something like that would he? Hmmmm… Check out 1992, and the British pound…

Hey! Jimmy Mack! When are you coming back? Did you see the move in Gold yesterday? It soared $21 on the day… And in the overnight markets it has gained another $13, to $922! I was listening to our metals traders, Jen and Kristin, the other day, and they were quoting prices for minted coins that were so far above spot, I had to stop and ask what was going on…

They proceeded to tell me in so many words, that it wasn’t any of my business and to go back to the currencies! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! No, not those two sweet ladies! They told me that the demand for coins is still at last fall’s highs, and that the dealers, and minters are charging outrageous fabrication fees… That thought was confirmed by HSBC, (Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp), one of the biggest metals dealers in the world… A trader friend of mine there sent me this note…

“One of HSBC’s bullion customers is a large coin manufacturer – we learned today that the demand for investment coins continues at an astonishing pace – the order book for Q109 has already surpassed C2008. The main order flow is European.”

So… There you have it! Gold is hot!

I had a reader send me a note yesterday telling me to be more professional, and compared me to Jim Cramer! ARRRRRGGGGGHHHHH! The horror! The humanity of it! Not Jim Cramer! The reader didn’t say how long they’ve been reading, and maybe yesterday’s rant was their first go at the Pfennig… I’ve got to hope so! I did get a little carried away yesterday, didn’t I? Well… That’s just me. I can’t sit idly by and watch this all unfolding before my eyes and not say something… Oh well… That’s the beauty of this newsletter, A Pfennig For Your Thoughts, It’s FREE! You can always just delete your subscription! But… You’ll be sorry…. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Currencies today 1/30/09 (Christine’s birthday): A$ .64, kiwi .51, C$ .8125, euro 1.2860, sterling 1.43, Swiss .8655, rand 10.14, krone 6.9280, SEK 8.2525, forint 232, zloty 3.4750, koruna 21.72, yen 89.60, sing 1.5075, HKD 7.7555, INR 48.87, China 6.8615, pesos 14.43, BRL 2.30, dollar index 85.82, Oil $41.88, Silver $12.55, and Gold… $921.85

Source: The Dollar Comes Back!

The Three Best Ways To Rescue Your 401(k)

Mike Caggeso — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 12:48:40 +0000

For Americans struggling to cope with falling home values and rising job insecurity, a shrinking pension plan is the “last straw”. But cashing in your retirement plan now is the worst thing you can do. Mike Caggeso looks at the three best ways to rescue your 401(k).

This from Money Morning:

For the 50 million Americans with 401(k) plans – many of them close-to-retirement Baby Boomers – the heavy lifting is just beginning.

In the 12 months after the U.S. stock market hit its record peak in October 2007, more than $1 trillion worth of stock-market wealth held in 401(k)s and other “defined-contribution” plans was eviscerated, The Wall Street Journal reported. The lost wealth is more like $2 trillion if individual retirement accounts (IRAs) are taken into account.

For many, the pain will be especially acute. For instance, workers aged 55 to 64, who have been contributing to the same 401(k) plan for the past 20 years, have seen their the 401(k) account balance plunge by a staggering 25%-plus since the start of 2008, according to research by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Since those figures don’t separate out new cash contributions to the plans, the statistics actually tend to drastically understate the actual level of losses, The Journal reported.

Given that many Americans were already trying to deal with major declines in the values of their homes – and given that thousands of households are dealing with, or are expecting, job losses – this eradication of their retirement savings is taking on a kind of “last straw” quality.

After all, any one of those three things alone – falling housing prices, loss of incomes due to lost jobs or a retirement plan haircut – is tough enough to rebound from. But the combination of all three is the kind of triple-whammy that can put an entire economy out for the count.

“This is the biggest test that the 401(k) plan has seen to date, and it has failed,” Robyn Credico, head of defined-contribution consulting at Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW), told The Journal. “We’ve put people close to retirement in a very challenging position.”

There are plenty of ways to react, ranging from indifference to outright panic. Neither extreme will prove productive. However, there are some options in between that will form the foundation of any sound retirement plan rebuilding strategy.

After reviewing a plethora of options, Money Morning offers you the three best ones.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 1: Don’t Cash Out

Possibly the worst thing you could do to your retirement is cash in your 401(k) – a move that would level your finances come tax time, extend your pre-retirement career by a number of years, and/or reduce your income when you start retirement.

So let’s rule that out immediately. That will put you well ahead of others who didn’t resist this urge, or who were forced to make this unattractive choice due to extenuating circumstances.

In the last two months of 2008, requests to withdraw from retirement plans rose 59% from the same period in 2007.

Magnifying this mistake is the fact that the contributions participants have funneled into their retirement have steadily declined since July, HR consultancy firm Mercer Inc. reported after polling 1.2 million participants with employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans.

Luckily – for now – less than 1% of plan participants account for both these declines.

“What should sound the alarm with plan sponsors, however, is the growth trend, not the absolute figures. As most experts would agree, withdrawals from 401(k)-type retirement plans and reducing participant contributions to zero are two actions that are completely counter to preparing for retirement,” Eric Levy, Retirement Business Leader at Mercer, said of the firm’s poll. “This may point to the dire straits that a small-but-growing number of participants find themselves in where withdrawals and zero contribution rates are seen as a type of financial last resort.”

Levy raises the central issue: It’s less of a lack of faith that the markets will bounce back, and more of a basic need for money for daily expenditures.

That’s understandable, and excusable to a large degree. After all, you won’t be able to enjoy retirement if you lose your house in the process of putting away money for later.

But the bottom line is less money contributed now translates into less money you’ll have to enjoy life and meet your basic daily needs after you punch that company timecard for the last time.

Sometimes you have to take one step back before you can take two steps forward.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 2: Balance and Rebalance

The phrase “rebalance your assets” sounds intimidating. But 401(k) managers and financial planners know their clients aren’t financial wizards.

They know a large portion of 401(k) participants don’t have the time or knowledge to actively manage their plan’s holdings. And they know investors have different tolerances for risk.

That’s why 401(k) plans have asset-allocation models designed to assess a participant’s risk tolerance, manage that risk and maximize returns by setting a percentage for each category of assets. Over time, these ratios can change as some assets surge in value, while others hold steady or even decline.

That, in turn, could skew your asset allocation. Assets that performed well could now comprise 20% of the portfolio’s value, instead of once accounting for 15%, if other asset categories tanked.

Levy says that many employers offer quarterly or semi-quarterly rebalancing programs, as well as some that rebalance automatically.

“Conceptually, you should be regularly looking at the asset allocation of your account relative to your age and risk tolerance,” Levy said. “And [you should be] looking to rebalance that at least on an annual basis if not more often.”

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 3: It’s a Marathon, Not a Foot Race

Since 1947, of the 11 times the quarter-over-quarter change in gross domestic product (GDP) was a minus 4% or more, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was higher by an average of 25% one year later and 35% two years later.

This information especially applies to 401(k) participants. The reason: The more you invest when markets are down, the quicker you will recover the losses you sustained over the past two years.

Just take a look at the following chart.

“The latest projections suggest we’re right in line with historical norms, given that economists expect that the U.S. economy suffered a mind-numbing decline of 4.35% in the final quarter of last year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “When everyone else believes the worst; that’s when you should be buying.”

For prospective retirees – those who watched as their 401(k) plans trip and fall right before the finish line to their working days – take heart: The markets will rebound. It’s just not clear when. While that may mean you have to stay in the race a little longer, consider this: You’ll be able to keep contributing to your retirement cache, magnifying your retirement war chest when that rebound does come.

For those 40 and under, this is possibly the biggest opportunity to build long-term wealth in your lifetime. Keep saving. And stay focused.

Source: Retirement Strategies: The Three Best Ways to Rescue Your 401(k)

The Treasury Bubble

Steve McDonald — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:26:22 +0000

Growing up in a depressed mining area (coal mining isn’t profitable for anyone but the mine owners) teaches you things you would never learn otherwise. This is the only advantage of growing up economically challenged. The word poor is so not cool anymore.

The so-called benefit was to be able to watch people make every conceivable bad money decision. It was almost as if it was a school for how not to do things. They weren’t stupid, far from it. They just had never had any opportunity to learn any other way of doing it.

Whether it was buying a car, a house, investing in the markets or a small business, it was a constant stream of disasters. They seemed to be drawn to the wrong choices.

This describes most small investors. My entire career in the money business has been spent pounding the table about the costly errors the average guy makes with his money. As we plow our way through this most recent economic tumble, the average person is being exposed to new and more expensive ways to throw their money away.

It seems investors can’t do anything right in this market. Treasuries have always been thought of as the ultimate safe haven. The recent huge move up in price, driven by the shift from the crumbling market of ‘08, is about to teach the uninitiated a very costly lesson.

The part that really upsets me is that this is no different from the usual beating the small investor takes.

Institutions such as insurance companies, banks, pension funds and mutual funds, moved into treasuries as a safe haven from last year’s stock debacle well ahead of almost all others. Institutions always move before the small investor.

This gigantic shift of money drove bond prices through the roof. In fact, some treasuries had gone so high the interest rate was ZERO. Most people miss the significance of this, since most people don’t think of treasuries as gaining or dropping in price. The popular concept is that these are just like bank CD’s, no fluctuation, and no risk. Dead wrong.

Unless you are planning to sit on your treasury bonds, notes or bills for the full maturity, you have almost as much risk in these as you do in almost any other investment.

As is always the case, the followers got in after the institutions drove prices out of sight. So, the price the little guys paid a few months ago will drop as the big players continue to sell their positions and move to higher yielding bonds.

When the individual investor sells, he will learn the hard way that treasuries fluctuate in price. In this case downward from the top of the bubble, and the safe haven has just become another money hole.

Bonds are bonds; the US government guarantee is only good if you hold these to maturity. This may be stating the obvious for many of you, but after almost 20 years of talking to the average investor, believe me, this is big news to them.

The institutions get away with this because they anticipate moves and in most cases create the moves. The average guy follows, as best he can, based on information that is days and weeks old at best. Too little, too late.

Another developing problem with treasuries is that OPEC and China own a huge percentage of our outstanding debt. These same groups are being killed by the worldwide economic slow down and the drop in oil prices. If either of them decides to liquidate their holdings in treasuries, we could see a massive drop in prices beyond that of our own institutional driven drop.

Don’t get caught in this safety trap!

The place to be right now is corporate bonds. The shift from treasuries has just started. This has been prompted by a slight thawing in the fearful response that drove the institutions to treasuries last fall. As this thaw continues, more and more big dollars will leave treasuries and look for higher paying investments that do not carry stock risk.

There was a big jump in corporate bond prices, in some instances 25- 40 percent, in the last few weeks that marked the beginning of the shift to corporates. But this big move has started to correct with the new uncertainty about how the TARP monies will be distributed, the further weakening in the banks and financials, and the concerns about whether or not the banks will be fixed by the government’s efforts.

This temporary drop in prices is one of the best buy signals I have seen since last November. You can pick up investment grade companies at good discounts to PAR and I am seeing yields as high as 7.2% on maturities of six to thirty months.

Here’s an opportunity to get in ahead of the followers. Take a look at the Bond Trader. To date, it has not had a single loss and has taken capital gains in the last few months of 40-90%.

The average total return for the discounted investment grade bonds in the portfolio is between 15% and 33% with maturities under three years and current yields of 7.2%. That’s a lot better than watching your stock portfolio drop every time the wind shifts.

For once, be in front of the followers. Get in on this now. Don’t wait for the TV to tell you its happening. If the TV talking heads are saying it, it already happened.

I’ll be back next week. Keep your powder dry and your eye on the horizon.

Source: The Treasury Bubble

Will Obama Nationalize U.S. Private Pensions?

Bob Bauman — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:05:07 +0000

“It is possible that some brainless members of the U.S. Congress may have introduced a bill that seeks to nationalize pensions, but I hope that it will not be given serious consideration, even by the liberal Democrat majority now in control.”

Earlier today I received an email from a concerned member of the Sovereign Society:

“I just read a rumor that a bill is working its way through the U.S. Congress, that if becomes law, would authorize the federal government to seize all 401k’s and IRA assets. These assets would then be placed in a federally administered plan to provide ‘equal and adequate protection’ of assets for all retirees. This sounds like what recently occurred in Argentina. Have you heard anything about this and is such a scenario possible? If so, then would being offshore prevent a potential seizure?”

I certainly am aware of the situation in Argentina where, last October, President Cristina Kirchner confiscated US$29 billion worth in the country’s ten privately managed pension funds. This was presented as an emergency measure to meet her faltering government’s financing costs that had soared as Argentina’s commodity prices on exports had tumbled and thousands of farmers were on strike.

Double Defaults

This grab of private property was nothing new for Peronista Argentina. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on US$95 billion worth of government debt after a three-year economic meltdown that left Buenos Aires in bankruptcy.

At the time, that was the biggest government debt default in world history; but since then that number looks like chicken feed compared with the trillions in government bailouts of banks and private businesses in the U.S., U.K. Germany, France and elsewhere. This radical government expropriation of private funds only worsened Argentina’s situation and they are once again on the verge of national bankruptcy.

In a breathtaking piece of bravado, President Cristina Kirchner brazenly claimed the grab would “protect” retirees from the global financial crisis, while denying she was trying to “grab the cash” to pay off debt or to finance new programs or projects.

Expert Viewpoint

I turned to Larry C. Grossman, CFP, CIMA, Managing Director, Sovereign International Pension Services (no relation) and a member of our Sovereign Society Council of Experts. Larry specializes in converting American pension plans to offshore venues, which current U.S. law allows.

Here’s Larry’s opinion: “There have been several different academic papers published over the last few months, which have given rise to rumors such as these. At this point in time I am unaware of any such pending legislation.

“It is difficult to sort out fact from fiction and to decide what format it would take if something like this occurred in the U.S. Many of us believe if it does happen, your best way to conserve your assets would be to already have them placed offshore. There is an old saying that ‘bank robbers go to banks because that’s where the money is.’

“I have clients who own non-U.S. real estate in their IRAs and have done so for many many years. I think it would be difficult (although not impossible) for the government to force assets such as these to be repatriated to the U.S. Instead they would probably focus their efforts on grabbing ‘the low hanging fruit.’”

And obviously, that could be billions in existing private pension funds located and administered within the U.S.

History Repeats Itself

Beyond belief? Read American history.

* Within days of taking over the presidency in Mach 1933, President-elect Barack Obama’s hero, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, ordered all Americans to surrender to the government all their gold and gold-backed currency, allowing only small amounts for personal jewelry and dental fillings. In return Americans got devalued paper currency.

* In the last 25 years federal and state police and prosecutors, under the guise of the failed “war on drugs,” have seized billions of dollars worth of real and personal property under the civil forfeiture program. Only 20% of the property owners were ever charged with any crimes, but very few got their cash or property returned.

“The G7 states are already acquiring an unhealthy taste for the arbitrary seizure of private property“,says the London Telegraph columnist, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,

“It’s a foretaste of what may happen across the world”.

World Recession An Excuse

It started with subprime mortgage borrowers, moved on to banks and has now progressed to whole countries. Iceland has already thrown in the towel, and Argentina stole its citizens’ pensions. Socialized bailouts and government controls are now the watchword in Washington as well.

Already governments in the U.S., Britain, and Europe are mightily meddling in the markets under the guise of “saving the system”, by taking ownership stakes in banks that rank above the rights of existing bank owners, then telling these banks how much to lend and what they must do with the cash. Ditto for auto and insurance companies.

Anything Can Happen

In response to that email from our Sovereign Society member, I replied that it is possible that some brainless members of the U.S. Congress may have introduced a bill that seeks to nationalize pensions, but I hope that it will not be given serious consideration, even by the liberal Democrat majority now in control.

For one thing, adopting such a law would be a major psychological blow to Americans’ confidence, possibly to the value of the dollar, and to the worldwide credibility of the new Obama government, at a crucial time when financial confidence is low and going lower.

But I served in the U.S. Congress when Democrats were in control and I’ve seen what happens when the Republicans are in charge. Meaning simply; anything can happen!

Source: Will Obama Nationalize U.S. Private Pensions?

U.S. Economy in 2009, Pain Will Precede the Promise

Shah Gilani — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 15:15:51 +0000

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be at such low levels that wholesale buying by individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, institutional money managers, and foreign-controlled sovereign wealth funds, will generate gains that will not only make us whole, they will make us rich once again.

A Market Mandela

Creating an analysis of the U.S. economy’s outlook for the New Year is akin to creating a mandala, a geometric work of art whose pattern, symbolically or metaphysically, represents a microcosm of the universe from the human perspective. In some Buddhist temples, mandalas are made of tiny colored beads, painstakingly created by several monks as a form of meditation. In celebration of the ever-changing nature of the universe, the mandala is then joyously shaken by its creators, until it is once again nothing more than chaos embodied in a box of colored beads.

Regardless of the big picture, analysis of a mandala – or the economy – always starts at the center and emanates outward. With the U.S. economy, that centerpiece is credit. The credit crisis has shaken the complex mandala that is our economy and transformed the United States economy into chaos. It’s complex because this economic-forecast mandala derived its form from thousands of individual pieces – in the case of the economy, from scores of data points, many of which are currently dark and foreboding.

The credit crisis we are experiencing results from the contraction – or worse, the cessation – of lending. Under normal circumstances, institutions and markets freely facilitate capital movement between lenders and borrowers. But that’s not happening, now.

Because of a lack of transparency into the balance sheets of borrowers holding such complex and illiquid securities as collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, and non-performing loans, and because of increasing recessionary fears affecting businesses and households, lenders don’t want to increase their loan exposure. Banks are holding onto the cash and liquid securities they control, using them as a cushion against their own potential losses. The U.S. Treasury Department’s direct-to-bank capital injections do not alter these banking realities. In fact, as a Money Morning investigative story recently demonstrated, instead of using these taxpayer-provided infusions to increase their lending, these banks are using the money to finance takeover deals.

The Recipe for a Recession

Whether or not the United States is technically in a recession ultimately will be divined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The business-cycle dating committee of this privately run, nonprofit economic research group is right now studying five factors in an attempt to determine if the United States has entered a recession and, if so, when that downturn started, MarketWatch.com reported. Those five factors are:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Industrial production.
Employment
Income.
Retail sales.

Regardless of any formal announcement by the NBER of whether we’re in a recession, the credit crisis guarantees a general contraction of economic activity, by every measure.

“Any doubt that we’re officially in a recession can be put aside,” Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Asset Management (JPM) – and now a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business – recently wrote in Fortune magazine. “The rapid deterioration of labor markets points to a sharp decline in hours worked and output in the fourth quarter. This is likely to lead to a decline in personal consumption to the tune of 5.0% or so for that period. Since [consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, the stage has already been set for real GDP to shrink at a more than 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter.”

Confirmation of that belief is evident by looking at each of the NBER’s five key indicators.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%. My own econometric models suggest that GDP actually contracted at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter and will decline another 2.75% in the fourth quarter. For the year, that would mean the U.S. economy actually fell 0.55%. The U.S. economy last posted a full year’s negative GDP in 1991, when it declined 0.2%. Verdict: Recession.
Industrial Production: This measure of output by the nation’s factories and mines dropped 2.8% in September, and a very steep 6.0% in the third quarter. Verdict: Recession.
Employment: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that October’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, a jump of 0.4%, which was double what most economists expected, and also its highest level in 14 years. The economy has now lost a total of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pointing to an acceleration in the pace of erosion in labor markets. Karydakis, the Stern School professor, wrote in
Fortune : “By way of comparison, during the 2001 recession and in the sluggish growth that followed in 2002-03, the unemployment rate reached a peak of only 6.3%, in June 2003. We’ve already exceeded that mark and, given that we are still in the early phase of the current recession, the unemployment rate should be expected to push toward the 7.5% range – and possibly higher – during the next three months to six months.”
Verdict: Recession.
Income: Personal income increased $24.5 billion, or 0.2%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.7 billion, or 0.2%, in September. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $33.6 billion, or 0.3%. Excluding the rebate payments made to U.S. taxpayers under the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, DPI increased $30.3 billion, or 0.3%, in September, and increased $44.0 billion, or 0.4%, in August. Verdict: Too close to call.
Retail Sales: October retail sales are coming in well below already-diminished expectations, and some reports have been downright depressing – including The Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -26.8%; The Gap Inc. (GPS) -16%; The Nordstrom Group (JWN) -15.7%; J.C. Penny Co. Inc. (JCP) -13%; Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) -9%; Ltd. Brands Inc. (LTD) -9%; Target Corp. Inc. (TGT) -4.8%; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) +2.4%. In a report last week, Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) projected that the retail sector’s woes will continue into 2009 as consumers cut back on buying apparel, footwear and accessories “in order to save money for essentials.” The credit rating firm said in a separate report that holiday spending “will prove even weaker than expected,” amid October’s financial-market swoon. Verdict: Recession.

If U.S. exports are taken out of the GDP calculations going back to January, it’s apparent that there has been very little domestic growth in the economy. And when revisions are finalized in the next few months, we’ll be looking back at the recession that we’re all but certain is upon us right now. Until the credit markets are freed up and borrowers are extended credit at reasonable rates, it’s unlikely that credit, the centerpiece of the economy, will be anything other than a major cog in the wheel.

There are some signs of a thaw, but not anytime soon. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s lowering of the Fed Funds target rate to 1.0%, and coordinated rate reductions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, as well as other major world-wide central banks, may start to ease the stranglehold gripping the worldwide credit markets. The London interbank offered rate (Libor), a critical interest rate against which trillions of dollars of mortgages, bank loans and derivatives are priced, dropped to 2.39% last week from a high of 4.82% on Oct. 10.

The prospect of President-elect Obama’s choosing a different means of attacking the credit crisis will be closely watched and, by itself, may create an air of confidence that perceptions will change. But changed perceptions will not be enough.

The truth about our economic outlook is that it is predicated on demonstrably better transparency. If U.S. banks follow the lead of their European counterparts, which have recently been freed from fair-value, mark-to-market accounting, and which may retroactively mark assets to “internal models” back to July, then balance-sheet clarity will continue to be cloaked in darkness. Lack of confidence in the banking system will persist, especially among the banks themselves. The first order of attack needs to be the creation of a fundamental leadership position that leads to an open, transparent and accountable measure of balance sheet assets and liabilities. As long as failing banks are being propped up, this cycle of credit contraction will persist.

The outlook for the economy is inextricably tied to the price of oil. The run-up of benchmark crude this summer to the record $145 a barrel level, and its subsequent fall to half that level, has wreaked havoc throughout the economy. Similarly, the run-up in commodity prices, and their subsequent fall, also has caused a lot of damage. Together, the dramatic rise and fall in the pricde of oil and other commodities is a harbinger of greater volatility in the future.

Follow the Money

Follow the money. Capital rapidly inflated the tech-stock bubble. When that bubble burst, capital flowed into and flooded the hard-asset world of real estate. When that bubble burst fast, speculative money dove into oil and commodities. When the U.S. and world economies looked weak, those bubbles burst. The looming threat of inflation this past summer instantly gave way after the drop of oil, gold, metals and agricultural commodities. And now, deflation is seen as the looming threat on the horizon.

Which threat should we worry about?

The answer is – both. The prospect for near-term deflation seems all too real. As raw material prices fall and finished good prices fall due to a lack of purchasing power resulting from lack of credit and world-wide recessionary fears, the U.S. consumer has fundamentally changed his or her collective psychology. Is U.S. consumerism, which is responsible for 70% of GDP, in full retreat? If it is, as all measures project, then it’s likely that government stimulus efforts will overshoot their intended mark.
Just look at what the United States has done already as it battles this financial crisis. It has:

Handed out more than $150 billion in stimulus rebate checks.
Floated a $700 billion financial bailout rescue plan – almost $160 billion of which has already been placed.
Bailed out American International Group Inc. (AIG), to the tune of $125 billion.
Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s bet on taking over
The Bear Stearns Cos. – to the tune of $29 billion.
Looked to lend struggling automakers $25 billion.
Agreed to guarantee depositors at all banks.
Stepped in to buy commercial paper that no one else will buy.
Guaranteed money-market-fund investors.
And backstopped the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

And now we’re getting wind of another stimulus package and more help for everyone.

If, in six months to a year, the credit markets are facilitating borrowers again, the massive buildup of U.S. debt will result in a falling dollar and higher interest rates.

That spells inflation.

A massive re-inflation of the economy portends another flood of speculative money into oil and commodities. The cycles are increasingly condensed, more volatile and will be increasingly more disruptive.

Welcome to the brave new world of global finance and speculation.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $1.8 trillion. That’s 13% of GDP. The Treasury Department has telegraphed its intention to float $550 billion of debt in the fourth quarter and estimates it will have to float another $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Our national debt will then be close to 49% of GDP.

If there is an easing of credit in the economy, and borrowers come to market with the pent-up demand that has not been met for the past year, the competition for funds will raise interest rates. Higher interest rates will counter any stimulus effect from government programs.

Who will buy U.S. Treasury debt if the world is less apprehensive about credit quality? Lenders will once again seek higher returns, potentially forcing the Treasury Department to increase its rates. The potential of this event may sink the dollar if investors perceive that the U.S. economy is stagnant and the world is awash in dollars. The yield curve – the spread between the Treasury’s two-year and the 10-year paper – has been steepening. A steepening yield curve, where short-term borrowing costs are low and long-term rates considerably higher, is good for banks that borrow short and lend long.

But if the perception of risk diminishes, and the perception of future inflation increases, the yield curve will invert and the threat of rising rates will cause a sell-off in the short end of the curve and a rush into longer-dated maturities. Any increase in short-term interest rates would be painful for struggling banks. An inverted yield curve would be devastating, and inevitably would lead to more bank failures.

Home on the Range …

At the core of the U.S. economy sits a desperately ailing piece of the mandala – the U.S. housing market. The once bright prospect of home ownership, which historically formed a beautiful economic picture, right now doesn’t exist. For most Americans, the family home constituted the bulk of their wealth. Or at least it did. And this family financial portrait will get worse before it gets better, since the real estate collapse is far from over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), for instance, projects another 15% drop in housing prices.

I think that’s conservative. Mortgage rates are actually rising as Fannie and Freddie have to pay higher interest on their short-term notes and bonds. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage paper averaged 6.47% last week, up from its 52-week low of 5.36%. The 15-year fixed paper was trading at 6.18%, up from its 52-week low of 4.91% (based on Bankrate.com (RATE) rate surveys). This trend is definitely not our friend. As housing prices continue to fall, and inventories stagnate and grow in many areas, homeowners are increasingly underwater and are increasingly entertaining foreclosure as a viable economic alternative to indentured servitude.
The Hope for Homeowners Plan, which looks to lower interest rates and reduce principal on mortgages, and which makes homeowners pay a share of the appreciation on their home to their lender when they sell it, was initiated in October and was expected to garner some 400,000 takers. As of last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, there had been only 42 takers. That’s not a misprint – 42 – I even checked with The Journal.

In the real estate realm, the proverbial “other shoe” hasn’t dropped yet, but certainly is dangling – and that’s commercial real estate. As homeowners writhe in agony and stop spending, retailers will go out of business, businesses of all stripes will suffer and commercial real estate will implode. The leverage left over from just the private equity foray into commercial real estate in the acquisitive 2006-2007 period is staggering. Refinancing will be impossible. Banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans that they took on as bridge and mezzanine financing from the private-equity shops alone, at the time believing they would be able to securitize those loans and sell them off to investors.

There’s no chance of that, now.

One deal in particular illustrates this entire mess. Private equity behemoth The Blackstone Group LP (BX) took Hilton Hotels Corp. private for $26 billion. Blackstone put up $6 billion of its own money as equity and borrowed the other $20 billion from Bear Stearns, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Deutsche Bank AG (DB), Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).

Based on a current analysis of the deal at the multiple of seven times projected cash flow that the market currently puts on Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) - Hilton’s nearest rival – if Blackstone values its property comparably, it will have to mark its Hilton holdings down 50%, because it paid 13 times projected cash flow. That wipes out all of Blackstone’s equity in the deal. What’s more, the $4 billion portion of the loan that Bear Stearns took on, courtesy of JP Morgan Chase casting off Bear’s orphaned liabilities, now sits on the Fed’s balance sheet – and isn’t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

Until the real estate cycle completes its implosion and begins to stabilize, there’s nothing that will fundamentally alter the outlook for the economy. This is Ground Zero. President-elect Obama must resist creating only a political solution to the overwhelming economic problem of declining house prices and declining real estate prices in general. Any attempt to put a band aid on this economic plague will only delay the day of reckoning. I regret deeply the conclusion that the lake must be drained before we can realistically climb out of it. But there just aren’t enough ferrymen to get us all to shore.

Always a Silver Lining – My Forecast

The outlook for the economy is not rosy – and that’s an understatement. But there is a silver lining. Even in the near term, the stock market will present innumerable wealth-creation opportunities.

First, there are plenty of shorting opportunities out there now, and more will present themselves in the future.
Second, in due course – in perhaps 12-18 months – we will be presented with the investment opportunity of our generation. If President-elect Obama gets it right, and I believe he’s got the potential to bring us all together and get the country through this (and if you’re reading this Mr. President-elect, I’d like to put in my vote for [New York Fed President] Timothy Geithner as next U.S. treasury secretary), American companies will be able to be purchased so cheaply that fortunes will be made. The recovery will not only make us whole, it will make our people and our nation rich again.

I have absolutely no doubt that the United States will lead the world back into balance. The sea change that has arrived is the result of the conservative experiment having lost its true moorings, pushing the economy into disaster. Not that a wholesale swinging of the pendulum to the other side would be good. In fact, it would be disastrous. We have the potential to end up with a new, fair, transparent and judiciously regulated environment where capital formation can again spread its wings and the U.S. economy can fly.

There are new hands reaching into the colorful box of beads that comprise the American landscape and economy. From any human perspective, the United States is more than a microcosm of the universe; it is the center of the world as we know it. It will take time to construct the new mandala. We all need to meditate on the process to ensure that the design we embrace will ultimately be inclusive, forward-looking and – like all great art – an inspiration to all who view it.

For the U.S. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise

Editor’s Note: This is the second installment of a new series that looks at the global investing outlook for 2009.

Sell These Assets Before The Ground Gives Way Beneath Them

Bill Bonner — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 16:03:53 +0000

The ground is giving way beneath our feet: Sell the dollar…Sell Treasuries. People still stand their ground…they do not panic. They do the right thing. But then, they go into work – but find they have no jobs. They look at their pension account – wisely invested in a diversified portfolio – and find that it has lost half its value. And their houses lose 20% of their value. In places such as San Diego, Las Vegas and Miami, the losses are more like 30%- 40%.

The ground gives way…and they find themselves in Hell.

Friday, the Dow registered a 61 point improvement, after much disappointment the day before. Is the rally on or off? We don’t know…

But what MUST happen, WILL happen. Fish gotta swim. Birds gotta fly. And bubbles gotta pop. The bubble in private debt has popped already. And now, the bubble in public debt has to pop too. And the dollar’s got to go down. That’s when the ground will really give way… For many people, the collapse of the dollar will wipe out what is left of their assets. Pension funds and insurance companies will be devastated. Savers will be unsaved.

Investors have rushed from risky investments of all sorts – emerging markets, mature markets, real estate, commodities – into the strong, welcoming arms of the US Treasury market. “Give me your tired, your poor huddled masses of dollars…yearning for protection from capitalism,” says Uncle Sam. “And I’ll give you 2.58% return over 10 years. Give me your money for 91 days, and I’ll give you nothing.”

Is that a good deal, dear reader? It depends on how solid the ground is under the US Treasury market. So far, as the ground gives way under other asset classes, the Treasury market has held solid.

But here is why the word “must” was invented. When something’s gotta happen, it’s gotta happen. The US Federal government already has an official national debt over $10 trillion. The deficit for next year will likely exceed $1 trillion…and could reach up to $2 trillion by 2010 – or more than 4 times the biggest deficit the country has ever run…and more than the entire US budget only 7 years ago. At this rate, in a couple of years, US debt will exceed US GDP.

Is it likely that the feds can so greatly increase the quantity of US debt without reducing the quality of it? Is it likely that the last IOU issued by the federal government will be as valuable as the first? No, it’s not likely. Something’s gotta give.

And we are talking about big money. A business or a small government can sometimes borrow more than its annual revenues. It’s borrowing can be funded by a small percentage of the world’s reckless savers. Lending to US government on such a scale is another matter. It takes up a large percentage of the world’s total savings, effectively shouldering other borrowers out of the way, and actually reducing the world’s capacity for economic growth.

Everybody, except bankers of course, knows that lending large amounts to a small country is extremely speculative. But lending to the US for ten years at 2.58% has a nasty stink of certainty about it. You can’t borrow that kind of money without some consequences…and the consequences of that much debt are bound to be bad.

To us, it seems almost inevitable that it will turn out to be a bad place to put your money. Because the ground is almost sure to give way beneath the feet of Treasury-market investors. How so? Ben Bernanke has already told us. When the borrowing gets tough, the Fed will turn to other forms of liquidity – buying US treasury bonds itself. In other words, instead of borrowing from savers – thus leaving the net money supply unchanged – the Treasury will borrow from the Fed. Where will the Fed get trillions of extra dollars? It will create them out of thin air.

That’s why the dollar has turned down.

“Greenback’s haven status thrown into doubt,” reported the Financial Times.

Last week, the euro jumped to $1.33 – a level it hasn’t seen in many months. And gold keeps edging up. It’s up to $820 an ounce as of last week.

The dollar is Hell-bound, dear reader. Sell it. And sell Treasuries too. We might be early with this advice. But we won’t be wrong.

*** If you want to own gold coins, you’ll pay $870 – $890 an ounce. Coins are scarce. People are looking for something solid to hold onto. Coins are solid. They are portable. They have no hidden liabilities.

And you won’t pick up the paper and find that a crook like Bernard Madoff has stolen away the value of your gold coins. The latest Wall Street desperado took investors for some $50 billion. And now the FBI, SEC and all the gumshoes and hacks are making a big deal of it.

Of course, in purely financial terms it is a big deal. The press has labeled it a “ponzi scheme.” But Charles Ponzi took in only $10 million. Peanuts compared Madoff’s scheme.

Another important difference. Ponzi took money from ordinary investors, widows and orphans. But Madoff went for bigger game – hedge funds, banks, and professionals. Today’s news tells us that the world’s largest bank – HSBC – was a victim. Banks in Geneva said they were out $4 billion. The Fairfield Greenwich Group said it had invested $7.5 billion with Madoff.

Of course, we don’t like to see widows and orphans get scammed. But hedge funds? Banks? Who can honestly say that they don’t enjoy seeing these mighty moneymen tripping over their own greedy delusions? Here at the Daily Reckoning…the news of Wall Street’s losses cheers us up…like reading the obituaries and finding no mention of our own name.

But when you own a gold coin you won’t have to wonder if the balance sheet is made up…or if the trades were fictitious…or why the SEC was asleep at the switch. A gold coin is what it is…no more, no less.

When the ground gives way…gold coins stay right where they were – or go up in value.

Not that we’re urging you to buy gold coins. We did that for the last 8 years. Now, you’re on your own.

*** Word from the Washington Post is that autoworkers are “angry.” Why should they be angry? They’ve been paid far too much (compared to autoworkers in, say, India) for far too long. Now their gravy train seems to be stalled on a sidling and they want the government to “do something” to get it going again.

It isn’t fair for the feds to bail out Wall Street but not Detroit, they say.

Elsewhere in the news, Bloomberg has asked the Fed to reveal what it did with the $2 trillion in emergency loans it passed out. Surely, the money went to the Fed’s clients – banks, and financial institutions generally. How? To whom? What were the terms? The Fed wouldn’t say. It refused the Freedom of Information Act petition on several grounds.

“Blank check for banks, pink slips for Detroit,” is how Gretchen Morgenson explains it in the New York Times.

The UAW (United Auto Workers) has a point, of course. Neither industry should be bailed out. But if you’re going to throw money around in Manhattan, why not toss some to Detroit?

But the autoworkers can stop kvetching. Detroit will get its bailout too. Just wait.

*** “What Hell Really is…” said the sign in front of a church in Arizona. “Choir practice at 4 PM!” was the next line.

Source: Sell These Assets Before The Ground Gives Way Beneath Them

U.S. Economic Outlook for 2009

Shah Gilani — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:51:04 +0000

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

A Market Mandela

Because of a lack of transparency into the balance sheets of borrowers holding such complex and illiquid securities as collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, and non-performing loans, and because of increasing recessionary fears affecting businesses and households, lenders don’t want to increase their loan exposure. Banks are holding onto the cash and liquid securities they control, using them as a cushion against their own potential losses. The U.S. Treasury Department’s direct-to-bank capital injections do not alter these banking realities. In fact, as a Money Morning investigative story recently demonstrated, instead of using these taxpayer-provided infusions to increase their lending, these banks are using the money to finance takeover deals.

The Recipe for a Recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will ultimately determine whether or not the United States is technically in a recession. The business-cycle dating committee of this privately run, nonprofit economic research group is right now studying five factors in an attempt to determine if the United States has entered a recession and, if so, when that downturn started, MarketWatch.com reported. Those five factors are:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Industrial production.
Employment
Income.
Retail sales

Regardless of any formal announcement by the NBER of whether we’re in a recession, the credit crisis guarantees a general contraction of economic activity, by every measure.

“Any doubt that we’re officially in a recession can be put aside,” Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Asset Management – and now a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business – recently wrote in Fortune magazine. “The rapid deterioration of labor markets points to a sharp decline in hours worked and output in the fourth quarter. This is likely to lead to a decline in personal consumption to the tune of 5.0% or so for that period. Since [consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, the stage has already been set for real GDP to shrink at a more than 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter.”

Confirmation of that belief is evident by looking at each of the NBER’s five key indicators.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%. My own econometric models suggest that GDP actually contracted at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter and will decline another 2.75% in the fourth quarter. For the year, that would mean the U.S. economy actually fell 0.55%. The U.S. economy last posted a full year’s negative GDP in 1991, when it declined 0.2%. Verdict: Recession.

Industrial Production: This measure of output by the nation’s factories and mines dropped 2.8% in September, and a very steep 6.0% in the third quarter. Verdict: Recession.

Employment: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that October’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, a jump of 0.4%, which was double what most economists expected, and also its highest level in 14 years. The economy has now lost a total of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pointing to an acceleration in the pace of erosion in labor markets. Karydakis, the Stern School professor, wrote in Fortune: “By way of comparison, during the 2001 recession and in the sluggish growth that followed in 2002-03, the unemployment rate reached a peak of only 6.3%, in June 2003. We’ve already exceeded that mark and, given that we are still in the early phase of the current recession, the unemployment rate should be expected to push toward the 7.5% range – and possibly higher – during the next three months to six months.” Verdict: Recession.

Income: Personal income increased $24.5 billion, or 0.2%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.7 billion, or 0.2%, in September. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $33.6 billion, or 0.3%. Excluding the rebate payments made to U.S. taxpayers under the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, DPI increased $30.3 billion, or 0.3%, in September, and increased $44.0 billion, or 0.4%, in August. Verdict: Too close to call.

Retail Sales: October retail sales are coming in well below already-diminished expectations, and some reports have been downright depressing – including The Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -26.8%; The Gap Inc. -16%; The Nordstrom Group -15.7%; J.C. Penny Co. Inc. -13%; Kohl’s Corp. -9%; Ltd. Brands Inc. -9%; Target Corp. Inc. -4.8%; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. +2.4%. In a report last week, Moody’s Investors Service projected that the retail sector’s woes will continue into 2009 as consumers cut back on buying apparel, footwear and accessories “in order to save money for essentials.” The credit rating firm said in a separate report that holiday spending “will prove even weaker than expected,” amid October’s financial-market swoon. Verdict: Recession.

The outlook for the economy is inextricably tied to the price of oil. The run-up of benchmark crude this summer to the record $145 a barrel level, and its subsequent fall to half that level, has wreaked havoc throughout the economy. Similarly, the run-up in commodity prices, and their subsequent fall, also has caused a lot of damage. Together, the dramatic rise and fall in the price of oil and other commodities is a harbinger of greater volatility in the future.

Follow the Money

Which threat should we worry about?

Just look at what the United States has done already as it battles this financial crisis. It has:

Handed out more than $150 billion in stimulus rebate checks.
Floated a $700 billion financial bailout rescue plan – almost $160 billion of which has already been placed.
Bailed out American International Group Inc., to the tune of $125 billion.
Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s bet on taking over
The Bear Stearns Cos. – to the tune of $29 billion.
Looked to lend struggling automakers $25 billion.
Agreed to guarantee depositors at all banks.
Stepped in to buy commercial paper that no one else will buy.
Guaranteed money-market-fund investors.
And backstopped the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

And now we’re getting wind of another stimulus package and more help for everyone.

If, in six months to a year, the credit markets are facilitating borrowers again, the massive buildup of U.S. debt will result in a falling dollar and higher interest rates.

That spells inflation.

Welcome to the brave new world of global finance and speculation.

Home on the Range …

At the core of the U.S. economy sits a desperately ailing piece of the mandala – the U.S. housing market. The once bright prospect of home ownership, which historically formed a beautiful economic picture, right now doesn’t exist. For most Americans, the family home constituted the bulk of their wealth. Or at least it did. And this family financial portrait will get worse before it gets better, since the real estate collapse is far from over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, projects another 15% drop in housing prices.

The Hope for Homeowners Plan, which looks to lower interest rates and reduce principal on mortgages, and which makes homeowners pay a share of the appreciation on their home to their lender when they sell it, was initiated in October and was expected to garner some 400,000 takers. As of last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, there had been only 42 takers. That’s not a misprint – 42 – I even checked with The Journal.

There’s no chance of that, now.

One deal in particular illustrates this entire mess. Private equity behemoth The Blackstone Group LP took Hilton Hotels Corp. private for $26 billion. Blackstone put up $6 billion of its own money as equity and borrowed the other $20 billion from Bear Stearns, Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Based on a current analysis of the deal at the multiple of seven times projected cash flow that the market currently puts on Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. - Hilton’s nearest rival – if Blackstone values its property comparably, it will have to mark its Hilton holdings down 50%, because it paid 13 times projected cash flow. That wipes out all of Blackstone’s equity in the deal. What’s more, the $4 billion portion of the loan that Bear Stearns took on, courtesy of JP Morgan Chase casting off Bear’s orphaned liabilities, now sits on the Fed’s balance sheet – and isn’t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

Until the real estate cycle completes its implosion and begins to stabilize, there’s nothing that will fundamentally alter the outlook for the economy. This is Ground Zero. President-elect Obama must resist creating only a political solution to the overwhelming economic problem of declining house prices and declining real estate prices in general. Any attempt to put a Band-Aid on this economic plague will only delay the day of reckoning. I regret deeply the conclusion that the lake must be drained before we can realistically climb out of it. But there just aren’t enough ferrymen to get us all to shore.

Always a Silver Lining – My Forecast

First, there are plenty of shorting opportunities out there now, and more will present themselves in the future.
Second, in due course – in perhaps 12-18 months – we will be presented with the investment opportunity of our generation. If President-elect Obama gets it right, and I believe he’s got the potential to bring us all together and get the country through this (and if you’re reading this Mr. President-elect, I’d like to put in my vote for [New York Fed President] Timothy Geithner as next U.S. treasury secretary), American companies will be able to be purchased so cheaply that fortunes will be made. The recovery will not only make us whole, it will make our people and our nation rich again.

Source: U.S. Economic Outlook for 2009