Business sales are down a couple of percent, factory shipments are down a couple of percent – which may explain why electric power is down about one percent – and all kinds of stuff are down, except, of course, the damned government payrolls.

Even retail sales are down 2.8% from September, and down a whopping 4.1% in the last 12 months. And as bad as that 4% drop is, Anthony M. Cherniawski of The Practical Investor newsletter notes that it is worse than it appears, as “these prices are not adjusted for price changes in the past year”, and if you look at the year-over-year 4.9% inflation statistic from the Department of Labor, as he did, then “That means retail sales, adjusted for inflation, are down 7.6%” in the last 12 months! Gaaahhh!

If people aren’t buying stuff, then this may have something to do with what I saw at Chartoftheday.com. They write, “It has been said that earnings drive the market. That may be so, but it has been the ongoing financial crisis that has driven earnings – off a cliff.”

And since, when examining my whole life, I can be characterized as “a paranoid, xenophobic, penny-pinching little tightwad, armed-and-dangerous gold-bug bastard going off the deep end again”, I am particularly attuned to other things that are “going off a cliff.” So I run to the tables in Barron’s, and I see that the earnings of the S&P500 – the 500 biggest corporations in the country – went down again last week to $46.10 from $51.37, a drop of about 10%! And $46.10 is a long, long, LONG way down from the $84.92 they made last year! Earnings have been cut almost in half! Wow!

And looking even more long-term, earnings of the S&P500 are back to where they were in 2000! Hahaha!

Naturally, being a scared and paranoid-yet-disagreeable little man who grows more so with every tick of the clock, I was trying to think of something clever to write that would convey both my Utter Mogambo Contempt (UMC) at anyone who thought that investing in the stock market over the long term was a good idea, and my Utter, Utter Mogambo Contempt (UUMC) at anyone who thought that placing all their retirement eggs in the stock market was a good idea.

This, of course, leads me to how the monstrous Alan Greenspan, while chairman of the abomination known as the Federal Reserve, irresponsibly created all the money and credit that allowed such rampant inflation in the prices of assets, so much so and for so long that it made such “invest for the long-term” idiocy actually seem possible; and then that naturally leads me to how Greenspan could not have done it without the despicable educational system graduating students who rank at the bottom of the world, the despicable news media for their gullibility and ignorance, and the despicable Congress in general (and Sen. Christopher Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank in particular) for being so stupid, incompetent and worthless as to allow the Federal Reserve to commit such monetary villainy, which naturally leads me to how even all these execrable halfwits, together, could not have done it if the damnable Supreme Court had not bizarrely ruled that FDR was allowed to corrupt the dollar by substituting a fiat currency instead of the strictures of the Constitution’s Article 1, Section 10 that mandated that only “gold and silver coin” will be money.

Then, predictably overwhelmed by the enormity of such supreme stupidity and total failure, I am soon angry and outraged, again yelling, “Damn them! Damn them all!”, shouting out revolutionary slogans and ranting, “To the bunkers! We’re freaking doomed, you morons!”

It was not until later that I learned that Chartoftheday.com also had a comment about the idea of “investing for the long-term” using these earnings numbers as a springboard, but which was a lot more calm, more nuanced, and classy, even though I could feel the marrow congeal in your bones when I read, “Altogether not a historically high number considering that it is merely 19% greater than where earnings were back in 1966.”

But I suppose it all proves, for the umpteenth time in history, that you cannot achieve prosperity by printing money, as James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer makes perfectly clear in his article at online.wsj.com when he writes, “partly because there was no external check on monetary expansion, debt grew much faster than the income with which to service it. Since 1983, debt has expanded by 8.9% a year, GDP by 5.9%. The disparity in growth rates may not look like much, but it generated a powerful result over time. Over the 25 years, total debt – private and public, financial and non-financial – has risen by $45.1 trillion, GDP by only $10.9 trillion.”

And now total debt is north of 350% of GDP, the highest ever, and with a federal government putting us on the hook for another accrued $95 trillion or so in promised future benefits for which they will cause the necessary money to be created, then if that is not a Damned Good Reason (DGR) reason to buy gold, then nothing is! Whee! This investing stuff is easy!

Source: Corporate Earnings Go Cliff Diving

We finally had some data releases here in the US which look to steer the markets, so I’ll just get right to it.

The dollar continued to strengthen yesterday after another round of bad weekly employment figures. Initial jobless claims increased to 516k during the first week of November, and last weeks numbers were revised up to 484k. The employment picture continues to darken here in the US, and it doesn’t look like it will improve any time soon. This is just what the US consumers don’t need right now. Not only are most consumers living paycheck to paycheck, but now many of those paychecks are being ripped out of their hands.

Personal bankruptcies are heading into record territory, and job losses will only make this worse. While the total size of the consumer credit market is dwarfed by the size of the mortgage market, with home loans there is an underlying asset providing some base from which banks can work. Credit card debt is different, the banks and investors who hold this debt have no underlying assets to fall back on. This fact has not been missed by the current administration, and Treasury Secretary Paulson is now looking to spend some of the bailout package to try and help out the consumer lenders. Unfortunately it looks like we will be taking another step into the deep dark area Chuck has continually talked about.

This morning we got the retail sales numbers here in the US which showed a further deterioration. Retail sales less autos were down 2.2% in October, almost double economist’s expectations. This fall is the largest monthly drop ever, and is just one more sign the US economy is heading for a doozy of a recession!

We did get some good news yesterday morning as the trade deficit narrowed somewhat, a result of a stronger dollar and lower oil prices. But even after the narrowing, we are still running a deficit adding to our need to attract foreign investments. Chuck let me have a sneak preview of December’s Review and Focus the other day before he sent it to the printer. In the latest issue, he talks about our need to finance the twin deficits which the US continues to amass. This financing need is one of the factors convinces me the US dollar will have to get weaker. The current dollar strength will not last, and once the ‘flight to quality’ buying of US Treasuries subsides, we will see the US currency return to its long term decline.

As I said earlier, the dollar continued to strengthen yesterday morning as the stock market fell. But both reversed course early in the afternoon after Paulson started talking. The Treasury Secretary said the big 3 auto makers should receive some government help, but he isn’t willing to take any of the funds already approved by congress to help them. Instead, he urged congress to come up with additional funds to help the car makers. He also said he would look to try and spend some of the already approved rescue package on ‘non-traditional’ lenders who give loans directly to consumers. Looks like Paulson is finally realizing what we have been saying for a while now, that the next big crisis is the consumer credit crunch.

Anyway, just after the news came across the wire about Paulson’s remarks, the stock market jumped 400 points and the euro bounced up over two cents in the matter of a few short minutes. The dollar has really become a contra indicator for the risk appetite in the market. The dollar index and the stock market have moved in opposite directions 88 percent of the time since the beginning of September. As investors feel more comfortable with risk, they sell the short term dollar holdings and invest them into other markets. The Europeans have started to take the dollar back up this morning, but it remains lower than at this time yesterday.

The Europeans are taking the euro down after it was confirmed that the European economy fell into its first recession in 15 years during the third quarter. Germany had already reported a third month of negative growth, and the European Union confirmed the GDP shrank .2% in the 15 euro nations during the third quarter. France, Europe’s second largest economy, unexpectedly grew in the third quarter as consumer spending gained and exports rebounded. I am still convinced that while things are bad across the pond, Europe’s economies are still in better shape than the US economy. And while some here in the US have given the ECB trouble about not lowering interest rates as quickly as the US; I believe they have done a better job navigating the current crisis, and Europe will be able to recover more quickly than the US.

And finally, the RBA was in the markets protecting the Australian dollar again. Lately, the RBA is intervening to hold the AUD$ up while there are rumors the Bank of Japan may start intervening to stop the appreciation of the yen. Officials at the Swiss National Bank have also been complaining about the rise of the Swiss franc. Both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc continue to strengthen as investors reverse carry trade positions. So we have a couple central banks intervening to hold their currencies down, and others who are intervening to try and keep theirs from falling further. Crazy Times!!

Currencies today 11/14/08: A$ .6585, kiwi .5595, C$ .8188, euro 1.2671, sterling 1.4738, Swiss .8409, ISK (No Quote), rand 10.152, krone 6.890, SEK 7.894, forint 213.42, zloty 2.9408, koruna 20.015, yen 96.39, baht 34.97, sing 1.5184, HKD 7.7501, INR 49.01, China 6.8250, pesos 12.97, BRL 2.30, dollar index 86.89, Oil $58.25, Silver $9.65, and Gold… $747.24

Source: Data Shows Just How Bad Things Are