Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks » Petroleum Products

Tesoro Corporation (TSO), Expand Your Portfolio with this Energy Sector Stock

Katharine Schildt — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:15:56 +0000

Despite lower industry profits in the quarter, this leading petroleum product refiners’ margin increased 51%. Katherine Schildt of Investment U says that, “Tesoro represents a great way to keep your portfolio diversified with exposure to the energy sector.”

This from Katherine:

While most oil companies continue to report less than desirable earnings results, one refiner recently reported improved refining margins, announcing a 51% increase from one year ago.

Based in San Antonio, Tesero Corp. (NYSE: TSO), one of the leading independent refiners and marketers of petroleum products, reported quarterly profit of $97 million, compared with a loss of $40 million just a year earlier.

Yes, that’s in spite the precipitous fall in oil prices.

Other areas of the company’s operations saw an increase as well, including its operating income, which was $196 million higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. This was in part due to success in its Hawaii and California regions, as well as improved results in retail.

Increased crude recipients in Los Angeles were partly responsible for the success in Tesoro’s California region. And a 10% increase in heavy crude helped its Hawaiian region report favorable earnings.

“The actions we’ve been taking since late in 2007 have positioned the company to succeed even in this weak market environment,” said Bruce Smith, Tesoro’s Chairman, President and CEO.

“While falling commodity prices did benefit our wholesale and retail marketing channels, the capital and non-capital initiatives we implemented beginning in early 2008 have enhanced our ability to deliver substantial and sustainable improvements in our capture of the available margin, and I am pleased to see these successful efforts reflected in our fourth quarter results.”

Tesoro was able to increase crude flexibility and distillate production, which helped its margin realization. It took great pains to take full advantage of production, which led to a 4% increase in diesel and jet fuel compared to 2007’s fourth quarter.

Another important aspect of Tesoro’s accomplishments in such an otherwise dreary market was its ability to decrease costs. Direct manufacturing costs were $248 million in the fourth quarter compared to $300 million in the third quarter.

Capital spending for the entire year was $724 million, down significantly from the $932 million it spent in 2007. It says it expects its expenses for 2009 to be around $600 million, an even better improvement than it already reported.

“While the strength in first quarter West Coast margins has been a pleasant surprise, we plan to continue to follow our 2009 business plan which is based on industry benchmark margins that are lower than 2008, and our expectation that we will realize continued improvement in margin capture. Our program of non-capital objectives and benefits of our 2008 income capital spending is resilient and continues to provide the platform for our organic growth opportunities,” said Smith.

The company has obvious investment merit. To endure the fall in oil prices from $147 a barrel to under $40 – yet still improve margins, is significant. If anything, Tesoro represents a great way to keep your portfolio diversified with exposure to the energy sector.

Source: Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO): Stock of the Day

Special Energy Indicator Points Toward Higher Gas Prices and a Potential 467% Profit Play

Keith Fitz-Gerald — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 12:02:46 +0000

Here at Money Morning over the past six months, we’ve talked a great deal about oil and gasoline prices. We’ve offered our predictions about how high those prices were going, and have detailed a number of investment opportunities – chosen as much for their margins of safety as for their profit potential.

This time we’re going to detail three energy stocks with the potential for double-digit – or even triple-digit – profit gains. Admittedly, these are longer-shot, speculative plays. But we used a special energy indicator to help ferret out these energy plays.

This indicator is known as the “crack spread.”

In case you’ve never heard the term before, the crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the value of the petroleum products that refiners can make from it. The crack spread can widen or narrow over time, depending upon various combinations of supply and demand.

If the spread is positive, that means the price of the products that result from the refining process – gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, heating oil, kerosene and asphalt, to name a few – is greater than the cost of the crude oil needed to make them. But if the spread is negative, it suggests that the cost of crude is higher than the end-game value of its derivatives.

Right now, the crack spread is narrowing. In fact, it has been for some time as governments around the world and gasoline companies actually try to hold down the pain motorists feel at the pump.

Granted, governments and major oil players make for strange bedfellows. But they have a common interest right now: Both are trying to prevent “demand destruction,” the plunge in oil demand that would result if millions of motorists – fed up with high oil and gasoline prices – just stopped driving. Governments want to prevent an economic collapse, while the integrated oil companies simply want to avoid being branded as the “bad boys” of the soaring-oil-price era – making it much easier for the incoming presidential administration to slap the entire sector with an “excess-profits tax” (something that’s already being discussed by Washington insiders).

But we can also see another scenario, one that’s very different. Peering into our crystal ball, we can see a situation in which the crack spread begins to widen, and gasoline prices run away anyway – eventually reaching $7 or even $9 a gallon.

For motorists, the pain would be excruciating. For investors, however, there’s a chance for double or even triple-digit profit gains.

Let me explain…

The Subsidy Gambit

It turns out that a number of Asian governments – most notably Taiwan, Malaysia and China, for instance – are actually reducing or eliminating fuel subsidies designed to shield their consumers from crude oil’s relentless march. Ostensibly, this is designed to control demand, but history suggests this will merely give those with the money access to increasingly large supplies that they’ll gobble up. In other words, we believe that demand may be growing fast enough to override the prices that governments around the world still believe to be inelastic.

Combine that possible new reality with the fact that a developing Asia accounts for as much as 70% of the increase in global oil consumption, this end of subsidies would probably hammer worldwide markets, including our own.

Given that Asia represents a mere 20% of current global usage, Asia’s growth is critical to how the rest of the world uses and prices petroleum-related products – particularly gasoline. Incidentally, this stands in stark contrast to how Japan and much of Europe do things where high taxes on fuel and transportation are used to blunt demand.

The economic forces that will be unleashed when these subsidies are removed have the potential to make the Great Tunguska Blast that took place 100 years ago this month look like a wet firecracker.

Indonesia, for instance, spends nearly 20% of its budget to underwrite fuel costs and has telegraphed a 30% hike in fuel prices when those subsidies are removed. It’s much the same story in China, India and the Philippines, where separate figures for fuel subsidies are hard to come by, but where it’s safe to say that the net effect of these price controls have contributed to artificially low prices and artificially high levels of demand.

In China, where the government caps gasoline prices, for instance, motorists pay about half of what their U.S. counterparts pay. All in all, governments around the world will spend about $100 billion on oil subsidies this year – meaning about half the world’s population is benefiting from “cut-rate” petroleum prices. This year, those folks will account for all of the growth in global oil demand, equal to an additional 1 million barrels of oil per day, says Deutsche Bank AG (DB).

Now, pressure is escalating globally for countries to end the subsidies the world economy can ill-afford. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, is “calling on governments to let consumers face market prices in order to kick-start conservation and reduce official spending,” says The Christian Science Monitor.

As I hinted earlier, this change has the potential to jam a lot of consumers personally. But it would allow world markets to function as, well, markets. And that, in turn, would afford investors one of the biggest turnaround opportunities available in the energy sector today. The reason: As the subsidy removals, pricing changes and demand shifts work their way through the global economy, the crack spread would widen again… and fast.

And the biggest beneficiaries could well be the oil refiners, which have seen their profits get zapped along with crack spreads in the past year.

The Best Way to Play the Shift From Subsidies

If there is a sector turnaround, the upside could be huge. And the three firms in line to benefit are Western Refining Inc., Valero Energy Corp. and Holly Corp. Let’s take a closer look at each of the three:

Western Refining Inc. (WNR): The El Paso, Tex.-based Western is an independent crude-oil refiner that owns and operates four refineries, and that also owns and runs 155 retail service stations and convenience stores in the Southwest. Although Western’s shares rose 77 cents each, or nearly 7.1%, to close at $11.66 yesterday (Thursday), the stock is down 82% from its 52-week high of $66.13. Independent researcher Soleil Securities Group Inc., this week initiated coverage of Western with a “Sell” rating and a target price of $8, contending that the company is highly leveraged and has seen its shares suffer in concert with its peers as part of a general sector downturn. That underscores the sentiment these companies face. But a return to its 52-week high would represent a 467% gain.

A Six Month Trade for 40%

Ian Davis — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 20:43:24 +0000

I’ve been bearish on oil refiners for nine months…

The situation for oil refiners in mid-2007 was just too good. Their profits were far too large. I didn’t think the stocks could go any higher. Here’s why…

A refinery converts crude oil into usable products like diesel and gasoline. Its profits come from the “crack spread,” which is the difference between the cost of oil and the price of gas or diesel. The best situation for these companies arises when the crack spread is large and they can sell their product for a high amount relative to crude oil. This situation arose in mid-2007…

Between February 20 and March 28, the average price of unleaded gasoline rose 49.4%, but the price of crude oil only rose 21.1%. This led to huge profit margins for the oil refiners… profit margins that seemed likely to persist.

You see, demand for petroleum products was growing, and no new refineries were being built. The last new refinery in the United States was constructed in 1976. Major hurdles prevent the construction of new refineries: financing a new project, getting permits, dealing with the environmental concerns.

And refineries experienced more than 30 unplanned outages in the U.S. in April 2007. Because of these outages, 400,000 fewer barrels of oil were being processed into gasoline each day, driving gas prices higher.

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This is why most people thought I was crazy when I made a bearish call on refiners in a June 2007 issue of the S&A Digest. Investors were making money on refiners hand over fist, and the stocks were priced as if the good times would continue forever. Refiners were the darlings of Wall Street.

I disagreed…

Refinery outages are temporary problems, and simple economics says demand will moderate as prices increase. Less demand from consumers, along with the same level of gasoline production, leads to lower gas prices. So I knew these margins had to shrink.

As it turns out, I was right. By last month, refiners’ profit margins had disappeared… and with them went the refiners’ stock prices. An index of the four largest refiners fell by half.

Today, however, we are in the opposite situation. The price of oil has outrun the price of gasoline, and oil refiners’ margins are terrible.

The following chart shows my crack-spread indicator (a ratio of the price of gasoline to the price of oil) compared to an index of oil refining stocks. If the gray line is above zero, the crack spread is above its average level. If it is below zero, it’s below average.

Refining Stocks Are Up 10%
and the Crack Spread is Improving

As you can see, the crack spread has risen substantially from its March low.

Oil refiners are cheap, they are rallying, and investment banks are upgrading the stocks. Unfortunately, there is no refiner ETF. But here’s a look at the four largest U.S. refiners…

Company	Price to Earnings	Price to Book	Yield
Tesoro	6.6	1.2	1.5%
Holly	9	3.9	1.3%
Valero	7.7	1.4	1.2%
Sunoco	8.1	2	2.7%

As you can see, all of these stocks are extremely cheap right now. And I believe the worst is now over for oil refiners. The situation is going from bad to less bad. The last time oil refiners were in this situation, the refiner index rallied by 40% in the following six months.

Good investing,

Ian

Source: A Six Month Trade for 40%

Political Hypocrisy on Display

Jawahir Mulraj — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 18:38:05 +0000

An ostrich can hide from reality for awhile, by digging its head in the sand, but ultimately, when he raises it to breathe, he must face it.

The Government, cowing like a wimp to pressure from its Left coalition partner, had tried to bury its hydra head in the sand staving off hikes in petroleum products and trying to escape the facing of reality. That left oil marketing companies gasping for breath, with no money left to buy petrol and diesel, which were under threat of being rationed, including to the armed forces. Last week the Government faced (partly) the reality of the situation and raised petrol prices by Rs 5/litre, diesel by Rs 3 and LPG cylinders by Rs 50. Even with this, the hikes absorb only about 9% of the total under recoveries estimated at Rs 245,000 crores. Fifty five percent is borne by issuing oil bonds, which is simply passing on to a future generation the cost of profligacy of the current one. Reprehensible policy!

What followed was a sheer hypocrisy by other political parties. The CPM and Trinamool Congress called bandhs in Kolkata on two successive days, never mind the hardship imposed on people or the futility of such a bandh on the decision. Price increases are not going to be reduced because of the bandh; instead, West Bengal’s GDP will suffer.

It was the Left parties, supporting Government from outside without taking the responsibility of joining it, that were, in fact, responsible for the apparent steepness of the hike. Had the Congress mustered up the spherical objects to raise petrol prices by, say Rs 1/litre five times instead of once, it would have been far more acceptable.

The fact that it did not indicates the invertebrate nature of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government. Being an economist he ought to have been able to convince others of the folly of defying economic reality; sadly politics and the lack of backbone prevented it.

The BJP’s protests of economic terrorism also smacks of hypocrisy. During its incumbency, the BJP Government had raised prices of petrol and diesel to the same extent as the UPA Government, despite the fact that crude oil prices hadn’t increased as dramatically as they have under this Government. So its claim that the UPA Government has unleashed economic terror is only posturing for the next election.

Finally the Prime Minister’s appeal that ministers cut down on air travel and on unnecessary usage of cars is another display of crass hypocrisy. It does not take the public protest of a petro product price hike to make these sensible suggestions. Any good leader must prepare for bad times instead of making senseless gestures after they have arrived.

The consequences to the economy and to Government financing will be bad. For preparing the country for a future of high energy prices with shortage, even worse. By artificially curbing prices of petroleum products, the Government has not allowed demand to be curtailed, as it would be, if prices were raised. The export growth of 31.5% in April 08 (over April 07), to $ 14.4 b. seems impressive until juxtaposed with the 46.2% increase in oil imports to $8 b. and of 36.6% in total imports, to $ 24.3b.

This relates to pricing, but availability of fossil fuels is a bigger concern. An alternate energy basket has to be developed, with urgency. One of the options was to use nuclear energy, essential if India is to grow at 9% or more. However, once again politics takes precedence over sensible economics and long term planning.

The conclusion that all political parties care only about power and not about the country, thus becomes inescapable.

The upstream oil companies, ONGC and GAIL, have to bear Rs 45,000 crores, or 18% of the total underrecovery of Rs 245000 crores. This means that ONGC will not be able to make the investment in both developing and acquiring, energy assets to the extent of the subsidy burden it bears. Once more example of succumbing to political follies and jeapordising the future.

Auto companies will be hit. None of the auto companies have bothered to develop alternate fuel products, including CNG, electric hybrids or other hybrids. Years ago this columnist had written to the CEO of Maruti Udyog asking why Maruti did not provide factory fitted CNG car options and why was it necessary for a consumer to bear the risk of a CNG kit not working. It was, after all both a consumer need (to cut running cost) as well as a national priority. His reply was that there wasn’t enough demand to justify the investment! How on earth would there be demand without a product on offer? Even foreign manufacturers like Toyota, with its popular Prius electric hybrid, have been slow in introducing it. Auto makers are also faced with the prospect of a 30-40% hike in contracted steel price for high grade steel.

Immediately following the price hikes, road transport freights have been hiked by 10-15%, which would add to inflation. Middlemen will take the opportunity to hike prices of e.g. vegetables, by more than the freight hike, taking advantage of the situation. It is hard to imagine inflation coming under control fast.

One hope for inflation to be reduced was in the delivery of PMT gas. This would substantially reduce the feritiliser subsidy as cost of producing fertiliser using gas instead of naphtha would be much lower. A fire at the PMT gas field has affected production of oil and gas, which may cut supply by 6 and 20 % respectively.

Lastly the effect on the fiscal deficit. To cushion the popular backlash of the petro price hike, the Government cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 1 and customs duty on crude oil by 5%, and on petrol/diesel by 2.5%. This will deprive it of revenue. Combined with a farmer debt waiver of Rs 71,000 crores, and the hike to Government servants by the sixth pay commission, the fiscal deficit will probably exceed the limit set by FRBM. It surely will, if the fudging of accounts through issuance of oil bonds, and fertiliser bonds, which do not go into the budget and hence don’t reflect in the fiscal deficit, is counted.

Meanwhile the US Fed has signalled an end to interest rate cuts and may well raise them in order to defend the dollar which Bernanke has expressed a concern over. The RBI would also follow suit. That would act as a dampner to equity markets.

Last week the sensex fell 843 points to end at 15572 and the Nifty was down 242 points to end at 4627. Should 14,500 on the sensex crack, there could be a fall of another 2000 points. India’s growth story remains intact, despite all political parties doing their hypocritic best to derail it. The strains and contradictions of coalition politics will be evidenced as elections approach; as the saying goes, it is only when the tide goes out you discover who is swimming naked!

Source: Political Hypocrisy on Display

Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, June 4th, 2008

William Patalon III — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 13:50:47 +0000

Gas Fuels Factory Orders; Borders Cuts Jobs to Cut Costs; Starbucks Serves Up Free Wi-Fi; Kenya Inflation Soars 32%; Chevron to Invest $5 Billion in Africa; Staples Raises Bid for Corporate Express; Lehman Looking for Cash Infusion; Oil Slides

U.S. factory orders increased 1.1% in April, an unexpected gain that was boosted by the high cost of gas and other petroleum products, the Commerce Department announced yesterday (Tuesday). Economists had expected a smaller gain of just 0.1% after an upwardly revised 1.5% gain in March, MarketWatch reported.

Borders Group Inc. (BGP) announced yesterday (Tuesday) it would reduce 20% of its corporate positions in an ongoing effort to cut costs. The No. 2 U.S. bookseller will eliminate 156 positions at its Ann Arbor, Mich. Headquarters and 118 corporate positions at other locations, Reuters reported. The reductions represent less than 1% of Borders total staff.

In a bid to lure new customers to purchase reloadable cards, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) will offer free AT&T Inc. (T) wi-fi service to patrons who buy a minimum $5 on a reusable Starbucks Card. “Customers have let us know they want to be recognized for choosing Starbucks,” Brad Stevens, vice president of customer relationships, told USA Today. Particularly, he says, at a time when “budgets are tight.”

Annual inflation in Kenya soared 31.5% higher in May, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday (Tuesday). May’s numbers are even steeper than April, when soaring food prices pushed inflation up 26.6%.

Chevron Corp.’s (CVX) vice chairman told Bloomberg that the company will spend up to $5 billion in African oil projects – including nearly $5 billion for a gas-to-diesel conversion plant in the Niger Delta – to boost production and help accommodate global demand. “The world is saying it needs it,” said Peter Robertson.

Staples Inc. (SPLS) yesterday (Tuesday) raised its hostile bid for Dutch office supplies distributor Corporate Express NV (ADR: CXP) to $2.6 billion. Rather than accepting two previous overtures from Staples, Corporate Express last month struck a surprise deal to buy a French competitor, Lyreco SAS, which would create an international competitor to Staples, the Associated Press reported. Lyreco may be entitled to a $46.8 million break-up fee if Corporate Express shareholders pursue the Staples deal.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH), set to report its first quarterly loss since going public, is considering raising billions of dollars in fresh capital to help shore up its balance sheet, the Wall Street Journal reported. The exact amount isn’t known, but analysts estimate it is likely to be between $3 billion and $4 billion. Lehman will probably reveal the details of the plan with its quarterly results, due the week of June 16.

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday (Tuesday), at times slipping more than $3 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The drop came after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated that more interest rate cuts are unlikely. His comments sent the dollar higher and raised questions about oil’s ability to reach new highs in the short term.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, June 4th, 2008

What Came First: Inflation or the Egg?

Bill Bonner — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 20:26:22 +0000

Let’s begin at the beginning, shall we?…as the egg goes, so goes the chicken. A game of consumer product mousetrap…desperate times for the airline industry and the manufacturing sector. Is this a rerun of the 1970’s? Don’t pull out the shag carpeting and the disco ball just yet…and more!

Today, we begin ab ova, as the Romans say – with the egg.

The price of eggs has gone up 30% in the last 12 months. Why the big increase? Because the things that go into making an egg have gone way up – feed for the chickens, heat, light, and transportation.

As the egg goes, so goes the chicken…and the whole chain of consumer products that make up our cost of living. Everything is going up.

If we were looking for something to blame, we could turn to the price of oil. It was only $80 a barrel as recently as last summer. This morning, it is trading at $127 a barrel – near an all-time record, even in inflation-adjusted terms.

Modern economies run on petroleum products. As oil has gone up…so has everything connected to it. But as the oil price rises, it sets in motion a whole contraption of actions and reactions. As the price of a gallon of gas rolls up a penny, it tips over a little cup in which there is a steel ball. The little ball rolls down a track, trips a number of levers and switches, and runs into another ball attached to a string, which then swings over to the left and knocks over a glass of water, which falls down onto a tray of fast-growing ivy seeds, which send out shoots and vines and strangle the entire apparatus.

Well…you get the point: one thing leads to another…

And one thing that high oil prices lead to is higher prices for everything else. And higher prices lead to less purchasing power on the part of the average consumer, which leads to fewer sales, which leads to less output, which leads to lower earnings and slower growth…etc. etc.

This has put the airline industry is in “desperate” condition, reports the New York Times . Fuel is the airlines’ biggest expense. As it has gone up, airlines’ profit margins have gone down.

The latest report from the manufacturing sector show declining factory orders for four months in a row. And USA Today reports that many people are seeing declines in their incomes – in ways that don’t show up in the employment numbers. While the unemployment figures show little contraction, sales commissions, tips, and even Wall Street bonuses are going down fast.

Foreclosures are still rising nationwide, says the Wall Street Journal . The famous Foreclosure Bus Tours have now moved beyond hard-hit cities in Nevada and California; now there’s one touring the New York area!

Forbes has a word for all this: Stagflation. Of course, it’s not a very original word, but Forbes is not a very original magazine. But it’s not a new situation either, says the magazine. Stagflation is the devil’s child you get from the unnatural union of consumer price inflation and a stagnant economy. It’s also what the United States endured in the 1970s…the last time oil prices were so high. The price of gasoline rose during the late ’70s…and hit a record high, adjusted to today’s dollars, over $3 at the beginning of the ’80s. For all the whining about it, today’s gasoline is not much higher. But by 1981, the price of fuel was headed down. Over the next four years it fell in half…and stayed low until George W. Bush invaded Iraq.

Are we enjoying a re-run of a ’70s show? Is it time to get out the strobe lights and the leisure suits? Should we repaint the house in ’70s style slime green and dirty-carpet beige? Can we forget about trading in the SUV or putting in a wood stove? Won’t this whole thing blow over – the way it did in the ’70s?

George Soros says the bubble in commodity prices will burst. We believe him. So, can we stop worrying about high oil prices and rising inflation?

Not so fast, says Paul Krugman. This ain’t the ’70s because we don’t have the same kind of inflation, he points out. At the end of the ’70s, everyone was sure prices would continue to go up. In May of ’81, the United Mineworkers Union was able to negotiate a 33% pay raise spread over three years. The miners thought they needed the increase to make up for increases in the cost of living. And the mine owners thought they could afford it – because the price of coal had been going up for many years. They were both wrong.

But that was “wage-push” inflation, Krugman maintains, very different from what we have today.

Yes, he is right. This is a different kind of inflation…a different kind of stagflation…and, we predict, a story with a different kind of ending.

Stay tuned…

*** How will the story turn out?

Well, we repeat ourselves, what ultimately turned the situation around at the end of the ’70s was a change in regime at the Fed…the worst recession since the ’30s…and a whipsaw on Wall Street that whacked both the bond market and then the stock market, wiping out more than half the value of each of them.

At the end of the ’70s, the jig was up. When everyone had come to expect more inflation from the Fed, the central bank no longer saw any benefit in it. Its new money and credit was being anticipated and absorbed – in wage and price increases – even faster than they made it available. Inflation no longer worked, in other words. It no longer deceived businessmen into thinking they should expand production. It no longer deceived investors into believing their assets were going up in value. And even the lumpen householders had caught onto the game; as soon as they got a wage increase, they spent it quickly…and then demanded another one.

The feds didn’t have much choice. They could either inflate much more heavily than expected and wait for the disaster to catch up to them…or they could admit that the flimflam no longer worked, raise rates, and squeeze the “inflationary expectations” out of the system. Paul Volcker took the latter course. That, combined with the natural feedback look of the oil cycle – in which higher prices drew forth new supplies, as they always do – sent the price of oil back down. In today’s dollars, a gallon of gasoline sold for about $1.50 from 1986 until 2003.

Volcker’s anti-inflation Fed also knocked the price of gold down from over $800 in 1980 to around $275 in 1998.

(It was at this point that the then-chancellor, now-Prime Minister of England, Gordon Brown, decided to sell tons of Britain’s gold. It is why the low point in the gold market, set in the late ’90s, is still known as the “Brown bottom.”)

Oil Exports Down

Dave Gonigam — Thu, 29 May 2008 16:51:32 +0000

Could someone notify our clueless congresscritters? Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world’s top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.

Maybe if they’d known this before hauling the oil executives up to Capitol Hill last week, they might not have made as many fatuous statements as they did. Then again, who am I kidding?

For all the attention paid to China’s increasing energy thirst, rising energy demand in the Middle East may pose the greater challenge. Last year, the region’s six largest petroleum exporters — Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar — curbed their output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time, their domestic demand increased by 318,000 barrels a day, leading to a loss in net exports of 862,000 barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand in the Middle East is a major factor right now, said Adam Robinson, an oil analyst at Lehman Brothers in New York. Mr. Robinson predicts the region will constitute more than 40% of increased demand next year.

Now that I think about it, maybe we should conceal the rising usage/falling exports within OPEC nations from members of Congress. It’ll just make them more inclined to follow through on the notion of suing OPEC.

The unstated assumption would go something like this: The nerve of those countries, using more of the product that lies under their soil, when everyone knows we have the right to buy as much as we want at a price of our choosing so we don’t have to drill off our own coasts. (Yes, I know they subsidize, and we all know that’s foolish. What do you want to do about it?)

Oh, and there’s this cheery sentence buried in the article: “Mexican officials announced Monday that output from the country’s once-mighty offshore Cantarell field had plunged by a third in less than a year.”

Someone call a priest to administer last rites to Cantarell. Then call a bookie to place bets on the year when Mexico ceases exporting oil, like Indonesia, which acknowledged its status this week by announcing it will pull out of OPEC at year’s end.

Source: Oil Exports Down