Are We Starting To See Inflation Creep Up?

Christian Hill — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:55:41 +0000

With the markets closed today in observation of President’s Day, we can take a little while to clear our heads. We will need it, since the next four days are chocked full of reports.

The first set of announcements to pay attention to are the housing figures for January, which come out simultaneously on Wednesday morning. Both the Building Permits and Housing Starts are expected to post declines from December.

Last month, both reports missed estimates by about 50k units. I’ve got to think that this month will come in lower than estimates by at least that amount. It seems no matter how low the estimates, the housing market will still disappoint.

On Thursday, we have the PPI and Core PPI figures for January. For the first time since last July, expectations are for an increase in the PPI. This could be due to a number of factors, such as an increase in energy prices, but the concerning one would be inflation. Could the Fed monetary policy finally be catching up with us? Time will tell.

The same holds true for the CPI estimate that is announced on Friday along with the Core CPI reading. For the first time since last July, the CPI reading is expected to increase. Since this reading includes energy costs, it could be simply due to the slight increase in gas prices recently. That would be the preferred reason, anything but dreaded inflation.

The final report of interest this week is the Philadelphia Fed announcement on Thursday. Unfortunately, the report is expected to show further decline in the manufacturing sector in the Tri-State area. In order for the economy to turn around, every manufacturing report, including this one, needs to start showing an increase in production.

Source: Are We Starting To See Inflation Creep Up?

PPI and Retail Sales Dominate The Calendar

Christian Hill — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 14:30:40 +0000

The economic calendar starts very slow this week, with only the Pending Home Sales report coming on Tuesday. Once Wednesday morning rolls around, it’s a mad dash to the finish with 11 reports coming in the last three days of the week.

The reports that matter most come on Friday morning before the market opens.

Friday is when the PPI and Core PPI figures for November are announced, and it is a mixed bag. The Core PPI figures (which exclude food and energy costs) are expected to show a modest increase of 0.20 percent. The PPI figure is expected to show a decline of nearly two percent. This is the direct result of the continued slide in energy prices. The price for energy goods dropped 12.8 percent in October, and I would expect a similar drop this month.

Simultaneous to the PPI announcement on Friday morning are the Retail Sales figures for November. Not surprisingly, the report is expected to show another decline, although not as bad as the October report. With limited access to credit, consumers aren’t buying much right now even though we are approaching the holiday season. The report could get a slight upward bump due to slightly better than expected Black Friday sales. The real interesting report will be next months’ when all holiday sales are figured in.

The final bit of information this week is the December Michigan Sentiment Report. Somehow, someway, in the face of a recession, the report is expected to post an increase this month. It must be the holiday cheer.

Source: PPI and Retail Sales Dominate The Calendar

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Are We Starting To See Inflation Creep Up?

PPI and Retail Sales Dominate The Calendar