Deflation and the price of Gold. Give yourself an extra point for spotting the trick question. It’s already tripping up plenty of would-be answers. Because gold must fall during deflation, since it rose so much during the inflation of the 1970s – right?
This week’s prestigious Mogambo Award For The Best Sardonic Laugh (MAFTBSL) was provided by Nicoles Michas of the Sparks Report, who suggested that “deflation hawks” love inflation and the sound of hungry children crying, people baking in the heat or shivering in the cold, and these horrible people want lower interest rates and higher inflation since they “don’t see any upward significant price pressures beyond food and energy.” Hahaha!
John Stepek at Money Morning notes that Neils C. Jensen, in The Absolute Return Letter, reports that “using IMF statistics drawn from previous banking crises…the 12 most industrialised countries (including the US, UK and Japan) could need to issue a total of $33 trillion in debt to cover the costs of the crisis. And that’s not even a worst-case scenario – that’s based on the average rise in public debt in the three years following a banking crisis.”
Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce. Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain. We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850.
While gold had a big run-up in price during the three-month stretch that ended in late February, the yellow metal has subsequently dropped back a bit, as have the prices of the leading mining shares. If anything, however, the reasons for gold bullishness have intensified.
Hugo Salinas Price, at plata.com, really had me going when he wrote, “Several years ago – I don’t remember the date – I read an interesting comment”…
Of late, I have read a number of analysts, Jim Rogers even, who have expressed the view that gold could dip to the mid- to low $600 level. Could happen, but I think not. Already, buyers of physical gold are finding anything near $700 to be cheap and so are helping to build a floor under the monetary metal.
History tells us that gold is the “ultimate antidote to fiat money” says John Pugsley. He says gold’s dollar price relative to other goods is now higher than the long-term trend. But no one really knows how much the buck has been inflated in recent years. And as price inflation returns “with a vengeance”, the gold bull run should resume.
Even with the arrival of the much-hyped Beijing Olympics, the Chinese stock market remains on a serious downer.
Yesterday, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5.2 percent after economic data revealed wholesale price inflation jumped to its highest level in 12 years in July.
However, Taipan Daily editor Justice Litle says China’s long-term outlook remains strong – and some China plays look more favorable than they have in years. Here are Justice’s six reasons why the China bears are wrong…
ECB to change dollar’s direction?… BOE leaves rates unchanged… The worst is not over in US housing… Japan’s government signals expansion is over.. And Now… Today’s Pfennig!