Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks » Price Of Crude Oil

Special Energy Indicator Points Toward Higher Gas Prices and a Potential 467% Profit Play

Keith Fitz-Gerald — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 12:02:46 +0000

Here at Money Morning over the past six months, we’ve talked a great deal about oil and gasoline prices. We’ve offered our predictions about how high those prices were going, and have detailed a number of investment opportunities – chosen as much for their margins of safety as for their profit potential.

This time we’re going to detail three energy stocks with the potential for double-digit – or even triple-digit – profit gains. Admittedly, these are longer-shot, speculative plays. But we used a special energy indicator to help ferret out these energy plays.

This indicator is known as the “crack spread.”

In case you’ve never heard the term before, the crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the value of the petroleum products that refiners can make from it. The crack spread can widen or narrow over time, depending upon various combinations of supply and demand.

If the spread is positive, that means the price of the products that result from the refining process – gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, heating oil, kerosene and asphalt, to name a few – is greater than the cost of the crude oil needed to make them. But if the spread is negative, it suggests that the cost of crude is higher than the end-game value of its derivatives.

Right now, the crack spread is narrowing. In fact, it has been for some time as governments around the world and gasoline companies actually try to hold down the pain motorists feel at the pump.

Granted, governments and major oil players make for strange bedfellows. But they have a common interest right now: Both are trying to prevent “demand destruction,” the plunge in oil demand that would result if millions of motorists – fed up with high oil and gasoline prices – just stopped driving. Governments want to prevent an economic collapse, while the integrated oil companies simply want to avoid being branded as the “bad boys” of the soaring-oil-price era – making it much easier for the incoming presidential administration to slap the entire sector with an “excess-profits tax” (something that’s already being discussed by Washington insiders).

But we can also see another scenario, one that’s very different. Peering into our crystal ball, we can see a situation in which the crack spread begins to widen, and gasoline prices run away anyway – eventually reaching $7 or even $9 a gallon.

For motorists, the pain would be excruciating. For investors, however, there’s a chance for double or even triple-digit profit gains.

Let me explain…

The Subsidy Gambit

It turns out that a number of Asian governments – most notably Taiwan, Malaysia and China, for instance – are actually reducing or eliminating fuel subsidies designed to shield their consumers from crude oil’s relentless march. Ostensibly, this is designed to control demand, but history suggests this will merely give those with the money access to increasingly large supplies that they’ll gobble up. In other words, we believe that demand may be growing fast enough to override the prices that governments around the world still believe to be inelastic.

Combine that possible new reality with the fact that a developing Asia accounts for as much as 70% of the increase in global oil consumption, this end of subsidies would probably hammer worldwide markets, including our own.

Given that Asia represents a mere 20% of current global usage, Asia’s growth is critical to how the rest of the world uses and prices petroleum-related products – particularly gasoline. Incidentally, this stands in stark contrast to how Japan and much of Europe do things where high taxes on fuel and transportation are used to blunt demand.

The economic forces that will be unleashed when these subsidies are removed have the potential to make the Great Tunguska Blast that took place 100 years ago this month look like a wet firecracker.

Indonesia, for instance, spends nearly 20% of its budget to underwrite fuel costs and has telegraphed a 30% hike in fuel prices when those subsidies are removed. It’s much the same story in China, India and the Philippines, where separate figures for fuel subsidies are hard to come by, but where it’s safe to say that the net effect of these price controls have contributed to artificially low prices and artificially high levels of demand.

In China, where the government caps gasoline prices, for instance, motorists pay about half of what their U.S. counterparts pay. All in all, governments around the world will spend about $100 billion on oil subsidies this year – meaning about half the world’s population is benefiting from “cut-rate” petroleum prices. This year, those folks will account for all of the growth in global oil demand, equal to an additional 1 million barrels of oil per day, says Deutsche Bank AG (DB).

Now, pressure is escalating globally for countries to end the subsidies the world economy can ill-afford. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, is “calling on governments to let consumers face market prices in order to kick-start conservation and reduce official spending,” says The Christian Science Monitor.

As I hinted earlier, this change has the potential to jam a lot of consumers personally. But it would allow world markets to function as, well, markets. And that, in turn, would afford investors one of the biggest turnaround opportunities available in the energy sector today. The reason: As the subsidy removals, pricing changes and demand shifts work their way through the global economy, the crack spread would widen again… and fast.

And the biggest beneficiaries could well be the oil refiners, which have seen their profits get zapped along with crack spreads in the past year.

The Best Way to Play the Shift From Subsidies

If there is a sector turnaround, the upside could be huge. And the three firms in line to benefit are Western Refining Inc., Valero Energy Corp. and Holly Corp. Let’s take a closer look at each of the three:

Western Refining Inc. (WNR): The El Paso, Tex.-based Western is an independent crude-oil refiner that owns and operates four refineries, and that also owns and runs 155 retail service stations and convenience stores in the Southwest. Although Western’s shares rose 77 cents each, or nearly 7.1%, to close at $11.66 yesterday (Thursday), the stock is down 82% from its 52-week high of $66.13. Independent researcher Soleil Securities Group Inc., this week initiated coverage of Western with a “Sell” rating and a target price of $8, contending that the company is highly leveraged and has seen its shares suffer in concert with its peers as part of a general sector downturn. That underscores the sentiment these companies face. But a return to its 52-week high would represent a 467% gain.

A Six Month Trade for 40%

Ian Davis — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 20:43:24 +0000

I’ve been bearish on oil refiners for nine months…

The situation for oil refiners in mid-2007 was just too good. Their profits were far too large. I didn’t think the stocks could go any higher. Here’s why…

A refinery converts crude oil into usable products like diesel and gasoline. Its profits come from the “crack spread,” which is the difference between the cost of oil and the price of gas or diesel. The best situation for these companies arises when the crack spread is large and they can sell their product for a high amount relative to crude oil. This situation arose in mid-2007…

Between February 20 and March 28, the average price of unleaded gasoline rose 49.4%, but the price of crude oil only rose 21.1%. This led to huge profit margins for the oil refiners… profit margins that seemed likely to persist.

You see, demand for petroleum products was growing, and no new refineries were being built. The last new refinery in the United States was constructed in 1976. Major hurdles prevent the construction of new refineries: financing a new project, getting permits, dealing with the environmental concerns.

And refineries experienced more than 30 unplanned outages in the U.S. in April 2007. Because of these outages, 400,000 fewer barrels of oil were being processed into gasoline each day, driving gas prices higher.

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This is why most people thought I was crazy when I made a bearish call on refiners in a June 2007 issue of the S&A Digest. Investors were making money on refiners hand over fist, and the stocks were priced as if the good times would continue forever. Refiners were the darlings of Wall Street.

I disagreed…

Refinery outages are temporary problems, and simple economics says demand will moderate as prices increase. Less demand from consumers, along with the same level of gasoline production, leads to lower gas prices. So I knew these margins had to shrink.

As it turns out, I was right. By last month, refiners’ profit margins had disappeared… and with them went the refiners’ stock prices. An index of the four largest refiners fell by half.

Today, however, we are in the opposite situation. The price of oil has outrun the price of gasoline, and oil refiners’ margins are terrible.

The following chart shows my crack-spread indicator (a ratio of the price of gasoline to the price of oil) compared to an index of oil refining stocks. If the gray line is above zero, the crack spread is above its average level. If it is below zero, it’s below average.

Refining Stocks Are Up 10%
and the Crack Spread is Improving

As you can see, the crack spread has risen substantially from its March low.

Oil refiners are cheap, they are rallying, and investment banks are upgrading the stocks. Unfortunately, there is no refiner ETF. But here’s a look at the four largest U.S. refiners…

Company	Price to Earnings	Price to Book	Yield
Tesoro	6.6	1.2	1.5%
Holly	9	3.9	1.3%
Valero	7.7	1.4	1.2%
Sunoco	8.1	2	2.7%

As you can see, all of these stocks are extremely cheap right now. And I believe the worst is now over for oil refiners. The situation is going from bad to less bad. The last time oil refiners were in this situation, the refiner index rallied by 40% in the following six months.

Good investing,

Ian

Source: A Six Month Trade for 40%

How Blair’s Blunders Sold Us to the Russians

Ben Traynor — Wed, 28 May 2008 16:08:05 +0000

Garry White’s in a fightin’ mood today. Just check out this quote from today’s Smart Commodities: “Blair didn’t have the balls to make essential decisions that would have secured our energy future”.

Or how about this one:

“When the government actually did something about getting our nuclear strategy on track, it got it so utterly wrong that Greenpeace took it to court on a technicality!”

Angry Garry’s been warning about Britain’s dreadful energy strategy for a long time now. As he explains today, he’s worried our energy needs will ultimately be dictated by Moscow.

And something happened last night that has Garry even more worried.

Find out why Garry believes we’re now on the road to an energy nightmare!
Will the lorries force Brown into U-turn?

Why does the Government tax fuel? Is it to raise revenue? Or is it an environmental measure? Either way, it seems the latest little hike in fuel duty — the 2p increase — won’t be going ahead. And quite right too.

British hauliers are feeling the squeeze. Yesterday, many of them converged on London, parked on the A40, and delivered a petition to Downing Street. They want the Government to scrap the 2p increase.

Gordon Brown first proposed this latest 2p hike — due to come into effect this autumn — over a year ago, while still Chancellor. Since then, the price of crude oil has gone through the roof.

This, in turn, has sent prices at the pump soaring. According to petrolprices.com, the average cost of a litre of unleaded petrol is 115p. For diesel it’s 128p.

If the Government’s plan was to price cars off the road to help the environment, it can stop worrying. By going up so much, the oil price has already done more than this extra tax would have done had oil prices stayed the same.

Even in the car-crazy US, the high oil price has finally fed through to a reduction in car usage, as Bill Bonner notes below in today’s Daily Reckoning.

If the purpose of the 2p hike was to raise revenue (as I suspect it was), then things are a bit trickier. Only a bit, mind.

Yes, the Treasury will have budgeted for the extra revenue. But then again, higher fuel prices will have affected consumer behaviour. If Britons drive less, that in itself will impact the Treasury’s fuel duty income.

Not only that, but the higher oil price has boosted the state’s North Sea revenues. And besides, it wouldn’t be the first time this year the Treasury has had to do the sums again.

I’ve had a pop at the Government here before (If I’m honest with myself, that last sentence felt like a bit of a ‘mini-pop’). I’m sure I will again.

But if the Government changes its mind on this one, let’s not just blithely label it a U-turn, in the manner of some newspapers this morning.

Pressing ahead with the 2p increase would be the wrong policy, at the wrong time and hitting the wrong people. As one protester pointed out yesterday, we still need lorries to take goods from place to place.

If domestic hauliers go bust, foreign firms will do the job instead — and the Treasury will receive even less revenue. Not to mention the fact that allowing the industry to wither would be another step on the road to the so-called “backrub economy” — a society in which everyone derives their employment from the service sector.

Much has changed since the 2p hike was first proposed. At the time, crude oil was around $60 a barrel. Now it’s more than double that. In all likelihood, then, the Government will change its policy. And they’ll be right.

It’s just common sense, really.

Brasil! Brasil!

Ever since my days playing capoeira, I’ve liked to spell ‘Brasil’ with an ‘s’. It makes me feel cultural.

“It’s Brazil with a ‘z’,” says my down-to-earth colleague Manraaj Singh. “Now stop it.”

Brazil, you’ll be aware, is one of the hottest economies in the world right now. Manraaj tells me growth this year is expected to be close to 5%. Strong in oil, sugar, and with a buoyant service sector, Brazil is the place to be for many investors.

Leading the Fleet Street charge is our man Manraaj, who today shows us why the stock market there is rapidly outgrowing São Paulo…
Fleet Street Research presents: 3 firms hoping to escape the UK consumer gloom

I don’t know what it’s like where you are, but outside my office window the weather’s pretty grim. I don’t think it’s raining… but it may do soon.

A bit like the economy then (I know! Seamless!)

Tenuous links aside, the UK economy is in wobbly health. The canniest UK firms have protected themselves, and now make a significant amount of their money well away from these shores.

I’ve asked our research department to take a look at some such companies. There’s still work to be done (our boys are thorough, and wouldn’t dream of issuing a recommendation without doing the necessary prodding and poking).

But my colleague Theo has agreed to give you a sneak preview of some of the companies he’s been looking at.

Remember, these are NOT recommendations (happy Theo?). This is just to give you an idea of the kind of opportunities we’re looking at right now.

Until tomorrow

Ben Traynor

Source: How Blair’s Blunders Sold Us to the Russians

Clean Energy Stocks Are Due for a Big Rally

Brian Hunt — Wed, 21 May 2008 18:29:25 +0000

The PowerShares Clean Energy ETF (PBW) debuted in April 2005.

With more than $1.5 billion in assets, PBW is one of most popular, diversified ways to invest in solar, biomass, wind, and geothermal energy. Common sense tells us when the holy trinity of fossil fuels – crude oil, coal, and natural gas – rise in price, companies that provide cleaner substitutes should also rise in price.

Today’s chart tracks the ratio between the price of crude oil and the price of the Clean Energy ETF. When the ratio hits around 3 or below, clean energy stocks are popular and soaring. When the ratio moves past 5, clean energy shares are out of favor and lagging the gains made in crude oil.

PBW’s only been around for three years, and this indicator is pretty rough… But with oil approaching $130 a barrel and clean energy stocks out of favor, expect a rally from the “treehugger-approved” companies of the world.

Source: Clean Energy Stocks Are Due for a Big Rally

How Low Can Oil Prices Go?

Peter D. Schiff — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 13:26:31 +0000

With the price of crude oil now down over 30% from its August high of nearly $80 per barrel, many have concluded that the bull market is over.

While the recent decline is somewhat steeper than the five 20% -30% corrections experienced since 2001 (when the current bull market in oil began), I feel that this pullback no more signals the arrival of a bear market than any of those previous dips.

While the current pullback may be more substantial and longer lasting than prior corrections, the long-term up trend remains intact. In fact, a drop to around $47 would put the market right onto its long-term trend line. While the momentum may well cause oil prices to test this trend-line, I’m convinced that it will hold.

Remember, more so than at any other time in the past, short-term market movements are being driven by the more than 9,000 hedge funds, many of which have highly leveraged positions in the oil markets. Clearly many momentum players are closing their long position, while others are initiating new short positions. This type of speculative trading exaggerates the severity of corrections, but is also sows the seeds for an equally dramatic rally.

Leverage is a two-edged sword. When real physical demand finally turns the market, those shorting into this decline will be forced to cover. Finding few real sellers at these depressed prices, this added demand will send prices sharply higher.

In addition, these sharp price declines do a lot more then shake out weak longs and sucker in the shorts; they create a stronger foundation upon which much higher prices can ultimately be built. First, fearful that a return to sub $30 prices will eviscerate return assumptions, oil producers will become increasingly reluctant to undertake costly exploration and development projects. Second, lower oil prices will discourage investment in alternative energy sources. And last, the anticipation of lower prices will discourage consumers from using alternative fuel sources, investing in fuel saving devices, or purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles. The result is that future demand will be higher and future supply will be lower.

One of the reasons behind the sudden change of psychology has been the unseasonably mild winter in the Northeast (On the first Saturday in January, my son and I ran barefoot on a crowded beach in Greenwich, Connecticut). No doubt there were several oil traders who enjoyed the 70 degree weather with us and who used it as an excuse to sell. Given the fixation on the weather, I would not be surprised if the NYMEX were to set up a live video feed in Punxsutawney, PA on Groundhog Day (February 2) so that traders could ascertain if Phil sees his shadow. In any event, much of this sentiment is likely to dissipate when real winter weather finally arrives.

Of course the disproportioned impact that U.S. demand has on global oil prices will fade as the dollar continues to fall. By making oil much more expensive for Americans while simultaneously making it much cheaper for everyone else, a dollar collapse will dramatically reduce demand in America while increasing it abroad. As Americans are increasingly priced out of the global oil market, our local weather patterns will be far less relevant in determining prices. Sorry Phil.

Source: How Low Can Oil Prices Go?