<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Price Of Gold</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/tag/price-of-gold/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com</link>
	<description>Access market-beating ideas from the world&#039;s top investment gurus on stock market investing, the gold market, ETFs, Forex trading and real estate values.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 10 May 2010 15:10:45 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
			<item>
		<title>I am a man of my word</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/i-am-a-man-of-my-word/21256</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/i-am-a-man-of-my-word/21256#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:44:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Snyder</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Notes From the Investment Underground]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Appreciation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Backseat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brethren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Downside]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Downturn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Activity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Bugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grasp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[invest in gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Man Of My Word]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[notes from the investment underground]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ounce Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ounce Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of An Ounce Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quivers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turnaround]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value America]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=21256</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Baltimore &#8212; (<a href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com" target="_blank">TFN</a>): I stuck to my word and bought gold. If you follow the markets long enough, you earn a full grasp of the psychology behind it all. After a while, you notice the tiny quivers and false starts that signify a move in either direction.</p>
<p>I used this insight and logic to warn investors about an imminent downturn in gold prices earlier this month. I got a lot of “feedback” from disappointed gold bugs. But it didn’t take long for them to eat their words as the price of an ounce of gold fell by nearly 10% in the last month. </p>
<p>But as I said earlier in the week, the slide is over. Of course, unlike the nation’s leaders,&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baltimore &#8212; (<a href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com" target="_blank">TFN</a>): I stuck to my word and bought gold. If you follow the markets long enough, you earn a full grasp of the psychology behind it all. After a while, you notice the tiny quivers and false starts that signify a move in either direction.</p>
<p>I used this insight and logic to warn investors about an imminent downturn in gold prices earlier this month. I got a lot of “feedback” from disappointed gold bugs. But it didn’t take long for them to eat their words as the price of an ounce of gold fell by nearly 10% in the last month. <span id="more-21256"></span></p>
<p>But as I said earlier in the week, the slide is over. Of course, unlike the nation’s leaders, I’m willing to follow my words with action.</p>
<p>Here is what I sent to <a href="http://tfnstrategictrader.com" target="_blank">TFN Strategic Trader</a> members first thing this morning:</p>
<p>“It is time to make the move. With the dollar increasing in value, America’s fiscal future looking stronger than its European brethren and record inflows proving safety has taken a backseat to asset appreciation, the price of gold has fallen by nearly 10% over the past month.</p>
<p>“Just yesterday, I read my first article in nearly a year that discusses the downside of the shiny, precious metal. Now that gold is trading for $1,100 an ounce, the sentiment has turned.</p>
<p>“Where were these articles a month ago when I warned of a turnaround? Now that the crowd has caught on, it’s time to change our outlook.</p>
<p>“As option investors, that means it is time to by. All you contrarian investors are going to love this week’s play. It gives you a chance to maximize the gains from gold’s upcoming turnaround.</p>
<p>“With gold shedding a significant portion of its value over the last four weeks, the speculation surrounding the metal has diminished greatly. That means once we get back down to base levels – the charts show its somewhere between the $1,050 and $1,100 per ounce range – we are set for even more upside.</p>
<p>“Rising inflation, interest rates and economic activity will boost demand well into the new year.</p>
<p>“Here is how I want you to take advantage of the situation. It is simple. Buy…”</p>
<p>You didn’t think I would give it away did you? To get in on the action and learn what I recommended, <a href="http://tfnstrategictrader.com" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
<p>***We have come to the end of the year. In some ways I will be glad to see it go and in others, 2009 will be missed.</p>
<p>As a financial pundit, there will never be another year like 2009. Between pyramid-scheme scandals, unfathomable amounts of government intervention, a market nosedive and a roaring comeback, we never had a shortage of topics to cover.</p>
<p>As an investor, the action was bittersweet. Nobody likes extreme volatility like we saw in the first half of the year. Sure, there was profit opportunity, but not if it means losing your hair and risking your house.</p>
<p>For buy-and-hold investors, the year will end with gains of about 20% from the major indices. A nice victory, but still well short of where we were two years ago.</p>
<p>For in-and-out traders, the sky was the limit in 2009. Over at <a href="http://tfnstrategictrader.com" target="_blank">TFN Strategic Trader</a>, we wrapped up a significant number of triple-digit winners.</p>
<p>But instead of looking backwards, it’s important to look towards the future and see what is just across the horizon. For 2010, it will be all about currencies, commodities and small caps. With so many of the nation’s smallest companies restrained by lending restrictions and top lines that refuse to grow, the next twelve months will be pivotal for the smallest of publicly traded companies.</p>
<p>For investors with the determination and skill to uncover the companies likely to be successful during that time, expect strong rewards. You can bet we will cover this sector in great detail as the year kicks off.</p>
<p>Until then, enjoy the last few hours of 2009 and have fun celebrating the arrival of the New Year.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/i-am-a-man-of-my-word/21256/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Gold &#8211; Not the end, but possibly a correction</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-not-the-end-but-possibly-a-correction/21138</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-not-the-end-but-possibly-a-correction/21138#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:59:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Karim Rahemtulla</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[12 Months]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AUY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Digits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Golden Star Resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karim Rahemtulla]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nyse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Share Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Two Ways]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Viable Option]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xcelerated Profits Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yamana Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=21138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The price of gold has surged this year, taking gold shares upwards with it. Readers of my Xcelerated Profits Report have rung the register with 45% profits on Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and a triple-digit winner on Golden Star Resources (NYSE: GSS). We’re also up big on Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) at the moment.

All is good, right?

On the surface, perhaps. But not if you believe what the options market is saying…]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karim Rahemtulla, options expert at <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Investment U</a>, looks at the near term potential of a gold correction, and how options plays could help maintain a positive portfolio.</p>
<p>Karim Rahemtulla (<a href="http://www.investmentu.com">Investment U</a>):<br />
Of all the great investments you could have made in 2009, gold is right up there among the best of them.</p>
<p>The price of gold has surged this year, taking gold shares upwards with it. Readers of my Xcelerated Profits Report have rung the register with 45% profits on Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and a triple-digit winner on Golden Star Resources (NYSE: GSS). We’re also up big on Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) at the moment.</p>
<p>All is good, right?</p>
<p>On the surface, perhaps. But not if you believe what the options market is saying…</p>
<p>Yamana Options Signal a Share Price Drop</p>
<p>Using Yamana as an example, the options market is betting that over the next 12 months or so, Yamana may fall from current levels of around $13 back into the single digits again.</p>
<p>Just take a look at the January 2011 $7.50 put options (the right to sell Yamana shares at $7.50), currently trading at $0.70 cents per contract. This means the put buyer thinks Yamana’s price will fall to $6.80 – almost 50% below current levels – in order to be in the money. The $6.80 price is derived from subtracting the price of the option from the strike price ($7.50 minus $0.70 = $6.80). This tale is similar across other gold shares, too.</p>
<p>These put options are expensive relative to Yamana’s share price – the result of gold prices moving sharply in previous weeks and causing the volatility in gold stocks to increase.</p>
<p>As a quick refresher, the price of an option is based on four major factors:</p>
<p>The price of the underlying shares<br />
The options strike price<br />
The time to expiration<br />
The volatility of the underlying shares<br />
Two Ways to Play Gold Prices… But Only One Viable Option</p>
<p>So if you’re a gold investor looking to participate in the market, what can you do to protect your profits, or buy shares at a lower price? Here are two potential ways…</p>
<p>Click <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/November/falling-gold-prices.html">here</a> for the rest of Mr. Rahemtulla&#8217;s Analysis at <a href="http://www.investmentu.com">Investment U</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-not-the-end-but-possibly-a-correction/21138/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>When will the depression be over? When the work is done.</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/when-will-the-depression-be-over-when-the-work-is-done/21119</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/when-will-the-depression-be-over-when-the-work-is-done/21119#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:32:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Antidote]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Bonner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daily Reckoning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Depression Bill]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forbes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Situation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Highs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rallies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toppy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trillion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Voice Of Reason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wealth Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zombie]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=21119</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bill Bonner, venerable voice of reason (with a touch of doom), at <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk">The Daily Recokoning</a>, looks long term at gold, the markets, and the end of the depression. ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/bill-bonner/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Bill Bonner</a>, venerable voice of reason (with a touch of doom), at <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk">The Daily Recokoning</a>, looks long term at gold, the markets, and the end of the depression. <span id="more-21119"></span></p>
<p>Bill Bonner (<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk">The Daily Reckoning, UK Edition</a>):<br />
The Dow fell slightly on Friday. Oil ended the week at $77. The dollar went nowhere. </p>
<p>But gold rose to a new high – $1,146. Today it’s hitting more new highs above $1,160… </p>
<p>Whatever else may be going on, there’s a real bull market in gold. It’s a bull market that began ten years ago. If you’d bought stocks then, you’d have about what you have now&#8230; less inflation. If you’d bought gold&#8230; you have about 4 times what you had then. </p>
<p>Today, a quick glance at a chart shows gold looking a little toppy. Expect a correction. But remember, this is a bull market. In a bull market, you buy the dips. </p>
<p>Stocks, meanwhile, are in a bear market. In a bear market, you sell the rallies. This looks like a good time to sell – if you haven’t done so already. </p>
<p>“Take Your Gains,” says Forbes. And once you’re out of stocks, stay out until the bear market is over&#8230; probably at around 3,000 – 5,000 on the Dow. When the price of gold equals the price of the Dow, it will be time to switch. </p>
<p>We haven’t seen the last of this bull market in gold. It’s what you buy when you think government is making a mess of the monetary situation. You put your trust in gold as an antidote&#8230; as protection&#8230; as wealth insurance. </p>
<p>Are the feds making a mess of the monetary situation? Oh dear, dear reader&#8230; please ask us something harder. Trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see&#8230; Stimulus spending that turns the US into a Zombie Economy&#8230; Handouts to the bankers&#8230; gifts to the carry traders&#8230; </p>
<p>The feds are out-doing themselves&#8230; more below&#8230; </p>
<p>As for the bear market on Wall Street, investors are counting on a miracle&#8230; a ‘recovery’ that doubles corporate earnings in just a couple years. They think it’s “just like 1982”. Of course, it is just the opposite of 1982&#8230; see the table below. </p>
<p>Besides, there is no recovery&#8230; and profits will go down, as businesses compete for less spending. </p>
<p>The recovery may be all in your head, writes Robert Shiller, in the New York Times: </p>
<p><em>“Consider this possibility: after all these months, people start to think it’s time for the recession to end. The very thought begins to renew confidence, and some people start spending again — in turn, generating visible signs of recovery. This may seem absurd, and is rarely mentioned as an explanation for mass behavior late in a recession, but economic theorists have long been fascinated by such a possibility. </p>
<p>“The notion isn’t as farfetched as it may appear. As we all know, recessions generally last no more than a couple of years. The current recession began in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, so it is almost two years old. According to the standard schedule, we’re due for recovery. Given this knowledge, the mere passage of time may spur our confidence, though no formal statistical analysis can prove it&#8230; </p>
<p>“Back in 1931, for example, The New York Times attributed the emerging economic cataclysm to a “mood of pessimism which had been carried to grotesque extremes.” In 1932, it compared reckless talk about “depression” to shouting “fire” in a crowded theater.” </em></p>
<p>It doesn’t matter what anyone says. It’s a depression. It’s nothing like the garden-variety recessions of the Post-War period. </p>
<p>It’s a depression because of the nature of the work it has to do. It has to clean up 3 decades’ worth of filthy balance sheets.</p>
<p>Click <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/gold-investment/gold-bull-market-34111.html">here</a> for the rest of Mr. Bonner&#8217;s insightful commentary at <a href="http://www.thedailyreckoning.co.uk">The Daily Reckoning, UK Edition</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/when-will-the-depression-be-over-when-the-work-is-done/21119/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What China Could Do to the Price of Gold</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-china-could-do-to-the-price-of-gold/20562</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-china-could-do-to-the-price-of-gold/20562#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:07:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Bonner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><em>“I’m Brazilian. I have gold. And I’ve just arrived from Rio richer than anyone&#8230;”</em> Thus sang one of the characters in an operetta by Jacques Offenbach. But that was in the mid-19 th century. But hey&#8230; what goes around&#8230; </p>
<p>Guess what happened last year? According to a study from Boston Consulting Group, the only area of the world that got richer last year was Latin America&#8230; led by Brazil!</p>
<p>The rest of the world got poorer. By 11%, according to BCG. Down in the rum and sun zone, on the other hand, they got 3% richer.</p>
<p>So maybe our investments in South and Central America will turn out all right after all.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, back in the developed world&#8230; what’s going on? There are two&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>“I’m Brazilian. I have gold. And I’ve just arrived from Rio richer than anyone&#8230;”</em> Thus sang one of the characters in an operetta by Jacques Offenbach. But that was in the mid-19 th century. But hey&#8230; what goes around&#8230; <span id="more-20562"></span></p>
<p>Guess what happened last year? According to a study from Boston Consulting Group, the only area of the world that got richer last year was Latin America&#8230; led by Brazil!</p>
<p>The rest of the world got poorer. By 11%, according to BCG. Down in the rum and sun zone, on the other hand, they got 3% richer.</p>
<p>So maybe our investments in South and Central America will turn out all right after all.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, back in the developed world&#8230; what’s going on? There are two main schools of thought. Ours. And theirs.</p>
<p>Who’s right? You decide.</p>
<p>They say – the crisis is over. We can thank our lucky stars – and the feds.</p>
<p>Now, we’re getting back to ‘normal’&#8230; or maybe a ‘new normal,’ with lower growth rates than before. Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed governor, says the recovery will be ‘tepid.’ Others say it will be weak&#8230; soft&#8230; drawn out.</p>
<p>“The slowest recovery since 1945,” says a Bloomberg report.</p>
<p>It may be slow, they say, but it’s sure. The stock market proves it.</p>
<p>Stocks are up 65% worldwide, with the US a laggard&#8230; stocks in the US are up barely 40%. The Dow rose 21 points yesterday – still a long way to go to get to the 50% rebound mark, at 10,300.</p>
<p>Gold closed down, but still over $1,000. And the dollar continued falling – reaching $1.46 per euro.</p>
<p>In our view, there is no recovery. None. All of the improvement in the economy can be traced directly to bailouts. None of it – not a single penny – is organic, natural or durable. When the subsidies for new cars go away, for example, so do auto sales.</p>
<p>We wrote a book, with <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/addison-wiggin/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Addison Wiggin</a>, several years ago. In it we predicted that the US would follow Japan into a long slump. We thought it would begin after the tech crash of 2000. We were wrong about that. But it seems to be beginning now. And the government, predictably, is doing the same things the Japanese government did – despite Bernanke’s assurances that he won’t allow the country to fall into the Japanese deflation trap.</p>
<p>One thing the Japanese did was to reduce interest rates&#8230; practically giving away money to anyone who would borrow it. But Japanese consumers didn’t want to borrow; they wanted to save. They had speculated on the bubble and lost money. Then, with retirement approaching they wanted to replenish their savings and rebuild their balance sheets.</p>
<p>So, the Japanese government put out money&#8230; and it was taken up by speculators, not by the real economy. The speculators borrowed yen, at very low interest rates, and then reinvested the money in go-go sectors elsewhere – such as the US dot.com bubble. The yen became the world’s “financing currency.” If you wanted to build a factory in China or speculate on Argentine bonds, you could begin by borrowing cheap money from Japan. Thus, Japan contributed to a huge boom all over the world. But not in Japan. The land of the rising sun never seemed to get up in the morning. Property investors lost 80% of their money. Stock market investors lost as much. Even now, nearly 20 years later, they’re still 75% down.</p>
<p>And now, along comes the United States of America with super-low lending rates. But who’s borrowing? Not the moms and pops of Middle America. They don’t have anything to borrow against. And the banks won’t lend to them. The banks need money for themselves. Besides, everybody knows the average household in America is losing income.</p>
<p>What’s more, mom &amp; pop don’t want to borrow. They’ve been through 10 years of losing money on Wall Street. Stocks are no higher now than they were a decade ago. And their houses – on whose rising prices they had counted for their retirements – have gone down 20% &#8211; 40%. And they’re still going down.</p>
<p>The poor moms &amp; pops can’t seem to get a break. They’re now desperately saving for retirement – at the worst possible moment, when jobs are scarce and wages are falling. But what else can they do?</p>
<p>Spengler, in Asia Times:</p>
<p>“An aging population increases its purchases of securities and decreases its purchases of goods as it saves for retirement. Americans have saved nothing for the past 10 years, and the capital gains that they considered savings-substitutes have vanished. That means that an enormous savings deficit accumulated over more than a decade has been exposed, and that Americans must attempt to correct it quickly and under the worst of circumstances. Americans will work more, spend less, and save more. America may have the worst of both worlds: currency devaluation and price deflation, as in the 1930s.”</p>
<p>*** So, the feds push money into the economy, but it’s hot money. It’s money that speculators use to place bets on gold&#8230; or on Brazilian bonds&#8230; or on oil exploration companies. The money never ends up in consumers’ hands. It never bids for consumer goods. It never pushes up consumer prices.</p>
<p>As in Japan during the ‘90s, America’s hot money may go all over the globe. It may turn the entire world into a casino. But it won’t bring about a real recovery&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8230;if cheap money from the government were all it took to bring prosperity Zimbabwe would be richer than Switzerland. Obviously, it doesn’t work that way.</p>
<p>But here’s the shocker. While we know easy money policies don’t create prosperity, you may be surprised to learn that they don’t necessarily cause inflation either. In other words, government may be incompetent, even at what it does best.</p>
<p>So, why is gold rising?</p>
<p>Ah&#8230; we were afraid you were going to ask. We’ve been doing a lot of thinking about it. Partly because our family office partners are smart fellows who ask smart questions. And partly because we’re wondering what to do with our own gold. Buy? Sell? Do nothing?</p>
<p>We spent half the night drinking and meditating on the subject. Finally, we’re not sure we had a clearer idea&#8230; but at least we were able to sleep.</p>
<p>We’ve already unveiled the idea to you. The feds can cause speculation in gold; but they can’t easily cause consumer price inflation. As explained above, they can get cash into the hands of speculators, but not into the hands of consumers. Not in the middle of a major consumer retrenchment.</p>
<p>The Roosevelt Administration was faced with the same problem. But back then, gold and the dollar were linked. Roosevelt could devalue the dollar by edict. The Japanese couldn’t do that. Nor can the Obama Administration.</p>
<p>In a deflationary credit cycle, you may only be able to cause consumer price inflation by resorting to extraordinary Zimbabwe-style money printing. You can drop money from helicopters, as Ben Benanke promised. But as Zimbabwe demonstrated, that cure is far worse than the disease it is meant to heal.</p>
<p>All of that said&#8230; gold can rise&#8230; partly because people are betting on it as an antidote to inflation (not realizing that consumer price inflation may be a long way off)&#8230; and partly for other reasons.</p>
<p>Lately, one of those other reasons may be heavy buying by the Chinese. The Middle Kingdom wants to diversify out of the dollar. It also has a central bank with very little in gold reserves. What better to do than to diversify out of the dollar by adding gold to its central bank reserves? Word on the street is that it is buying steadily.</p>
<p>The Chinese have made a number of announcements on the subject. We don’t really know who’s in charge there, so we don’t know whose comments to weight most heavily. One Chinese official has said that the government is buying gold and intends to buy more. Another says they will buy “when people don’t expect it.” Another says the Chinese expect gold to go to $3,000 an ounce.</p>
<p>The Chinese have the money and the motive. They alone could move the price of gold to $3,000 if they wanted to. And maybe they do.</p>
<p>Until tomorrow,</p>
<p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/bill-bonner/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Bill Bonner</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/daily-reckoning/bill-bonner-essays/china-gold-price-54571.html"><br />
</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/daily-reckoning/bill-bonner-essays/china-gold-price-54571.html">Source: What China Could Do to the Price of Gold</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-china-could-do-to-the-price-of-gold/20562/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The 4 Reasons to Skip Today&#8217;s Gold Rush</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-4-reasons-to-skip-todays-gold-rush/20527</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-4-reasons-to-skip-todays-gold-rush/20527#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:22:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bob Prechter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Confirmation Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devil S Advocate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Double Dip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliot Wave International]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Excess Supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange Traded Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Bugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Rush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moving Averages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Path Of Least Resistance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitchforks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reason 2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Redemptions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Speculators]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20527</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In the spirit of not suffering from confirmation bias, in today’s <em><strong>Notes</strong></em><strong> </strong>we will try to make the bearish case <em>against</em> gold. So before you storm <em><strong>Notes</strong></em> HQ in Buenos Aires craving blood, hear us out. Many of our staff here love gold and have long term holdings. </p>
<p>This issue is entirely in the contrarian spirit of playing devil’s advocate. So put your pitchforks down. Take a deep breath. There is plenty of space to poke holes in (or rant) about our thesis by writing to <a href="mailto:notes@todaysfinancialnews.com" target="_blank">notes@todaysfinancialnews.com</a></p>
<p>So here it goes. The four reasons you shouldn’t buy gold today…</p>
<p>Reason 1: Did you know that the seventh largest holder of gold in the world is not a country, but an exchange traded fund? Yes, gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the spirit of not suffering from confirmation bias, in today’s <em><strong>Notes</strong></em><strong> </strong>we will try to make the bearish case <em>against</em> gold. So before you storm <em><strong>Notes</strong></em> HQ in Buenos Aires craving blood, hear us out. Many of our staff here love gold and have long term holdings. <span id="more-20527"></span></p>
<p>This issue is entirely in the contrarian spirit of playing devil’s advocate. So put your pitchforks down. Take a deep breath. There is plenty of space to poke holes in (or rant) about our thesis by writing to <a href="mailto:notes@todaysfinancialnews.com" target="_blank">notes@todaysfinancialnews.com</a></p>
<p>So here it goes. The four reasons you shouldn’t buy gold today…</p>
<p>Reason 1: Did you know that the seventh largest holder of gold in the world is not a country, but an exchange traded fund? Yes, gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has amassed the seventh largest gold reserve in the world. This fund holds more gold than China, Switzerland, Japan, the United Kingdom or the European Central Bank.</p>
<p>So why does this matter? Because should big investors (hedge funds, pension funds) who hold this fund (and many due), decide to dump their shares or are forced to liquidate their holdings because of investor redemptions, who will buy up the excess slack? This excess supply would surely drive the price of gold down making for some unhappy gold bugs.</p>
<p>Reason 2: Gold is overbought at today’s price level. When anything becomes overbought quickly, as gold has in recent months, it has a habit of correcting just as quickly. According to Bob Prechter, CEO of Elliot Wave International, the precious metals are &#8220;heavily overbought&#8221; and the &#8220;path of least resistance&#8221; will be to the downside for many months. &#8220;[Gold's] going to go much further [down] than people think.&#8221;</p>
<p>While gold stocks have recently pushed their 200 and 50 day moving averages higher, which is a bullish indicator, the threat that speculators are leading the way is ever present. And if the current recession takes a double dip, which we think is highly possibly (and so does Nouriel Roubini), investors around the world will flee to the dollar again. When the dollar gets propped up, gold falls. And when it starts to fall, you can bet these speculators will be abandoning ship just as fast as they boarded. This could leave you, dear reader, with a sinking boatload of gold in the middle of the vast and hopeless ocean.</p>
<p>Reason 3: More inflation hedges are available today. In the past, gold served as the best inflation hedge out there. In the 1970s when inflation started taking off, so did gold. People piled into the precious metal at rates never before seen, driving the price up to historic highs.</p>
<p>Fast forward to today, and you have a much different investing environment. Gold’s monopoly as the only inflation hedge is over. Now, investors have a wealth of options such as currency ETFs, TIPS, short US Treasury ETFs, other baskets of commodities, and stock in companies that can raise prices on pace with inflation. While none of these vehicles is the perfect inflation hedge, each attracts money away from gold. And the less demand for gold, the less upward price pressure there will be.</p>
<p>Reason 4: The run up in gold is based on fear, not on increased demand. Right now, owning gold is a “fear trade.” The price of gold is not up because people are buying more jewelry or Indian saris. It’s up because people are scared of hyperinflation taking over, the mountain of debt crushing the US, and the fiat money system collapsing. But what if Chairman Ben, and all his merry henchmen, are actually <em>doing the right thing? </em>While it is hard to say this with a straight face, what if everything returns to normal and we experience a nice V-shaped recovery? Or, more plausibly, what if deflation wins the day? Both these scenarios will have serious downward consequences on the price of gold.</p>
<p>So, dear readers, what do <em>you</em> think? Are any of these scenarios possible? Write to us at <a href="mailto:info@contrarianprofits.com" target="_blank">info@contrarianprofits.com</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-4-reasons-to-skip-todays-gold-rush/20527/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>My Favorite “Mistake”</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/my-favorite-%e2%80%9cmistake%e2%80%9d/20383</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/my-favorite-%e2%80%9cmistake%e2%80%9d/20383#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Byron King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20383</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">The price of gold has had a solid triple since about 2001, when an ounce would set you back a mere $300 or so. (Remember that? Oh, the good old days!) For the past year or so, however, gold has been stuck, trading in the $900-980 range. It goes up a bit, down a bit.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At this level, gold isn’t overly dramatic. We haven’t seen any really big moves one way or the other. The big moves will happen, eventually, I believe. We just have to be patient.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Why do I believe that gold will soar? Well, we’re still in the early chapters of the overall “gold story.” The plot is still forming, although I believe that all of the main characters&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">The price of gold has had a solid triple since about 2001, when an ounce would set you back a mere $300 or so. (Remember that? Oh, the good old days!) For the past year or so, however, gold has been stuck, trading in the $900-980 range. It goes up a bit, down a bit.<span id="more-20383"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At this level, gold isn’t overly dramatic. We haven’t seen any really big moves one way or the other. The big moves will happen, eventually, I believe. We just have to be patient.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Why do I believe that gold will soar? Well, we’re still in the early chapters of the overall “gold story.” The plot is still forming, although I believe that all of the main characters are on stage.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We have excessive U.S. government spending. It’s out of control, to all intents and purposes. We have the deepening federal deficit, and associated exploding national debt. We have significant monetary players overseas, like Japan and China and Middle Eastern nations, holding trillions of dollars worth of U.S. bonds and other paper — and getting nervous about it. We have a hollowed-out North American economy that’s turned into what historian Charles Maier calls an “empire of consumption.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Then we also have the utter incompetence and hubris of upper-level U.S. politicians and policymakers. They’re collectively so out of touch that they don’t even know that they’re out of touch. We have the parallel incompetence of the Big Media, with their overall “infotainment” approach to presenting vital news to the American people.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Where’s the tragic theme? There’s this sense of denial that anything really bad can possibly happen. It’s the monetary equivalent of a Dec. 6 or Sept. 10 kind of thinking. It’s a failure of imagination at the highest levels.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And whatever does happen, there’s this attitude that the U.S. can add complexity to the system and “spend its way” out of anything. Big government? Sure, and let’s make it bigger. (Hey, let’s have the government take over health care while we’re at it.) Stimulus? Go for it. Bail out Wall Street? Of course — aren’t they too big to fail? Cap and trade, and thus cripple the U.S. energy economy? Yep, we’ll just “conserve” more energy and build lots of windmills. Right?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s just spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. Or control, control, control, control, control. And bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize. Modern governance is all about spending money we don’t have on complexity that we, as a society, cannot afford in any sense of the word. And few of the power brokers at the top seem to think that there’s anything wrong with it. They’ll just pass another law, spend some more money.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The tragic part of this drama is that the high and mighty are setting themselves — and the U.S. economy — up for a terrible fall. Sooner or later, with all the spending and new bureaucracy, we’re going to have an implosion and see a collapse in the level of complexity. Those green “notes” that the Federal Reserve prints — with the nice pictures of dead presidents on them — will not be worth nearly what most people believe.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Neither you nor I can do anything to prevent it. (OK, write to your congressman, for all the good it’ll do. Or go to a town hall meeting, for all the good it’ll do.)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The answer, of course, is to protect yourself and your family, and save what you can. When the mighty tumble, be sure not to be standing there in the crash zone.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Source: <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/2009/09/04/my-favorite-mistake/">My Favorite “Mistake”</a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><br />
</strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/my-favorite-%e2%80%9cmistake%e2%80%9d/20383/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Looking at Gold Price Trends</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/looking-at-gold-price-trends/19212</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/looking-at-gold-price-trends/19212#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Byron King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Exploration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mining Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=19212</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The first thing I do when I sit down at my desk in the morning is check the price of gold. The second thing I do is check the price of oil.  Sure, the price for gold and oil changes all the time. Prices go up and down, for good and bad reasons. Heck, sometimes prices fluctuate and the reasoning defies logic.</p>
<div class="entry">
<p>Still, I watch the price points. Deep down, I’m looking to see if the prices for gold and oil are following my long-term view of what ought to happen. That is, my long-term view is that both gold and oil prices are going to rise to astonishing heights.</p>
<p>Scarcity rules. That’s the foundation of my investment thesis. Today, I’ll explain&#8230;</p></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first thing I do when I sit down at my desk in the morning is check the price of gold. The second thing I do is check the price of oil.  Sure, the price for gold and oil changes all the time. Prices go up and down, for good and bad reasons. Heck, sometimes prices fluctuate and the reasoning defies logic.<span id="more-19212"></span></p>
<div class="entry">
<p>Still, I watch the price points. Deep down, I’m looking to see if the prices for gold and oil are following my long-term view of what ought to happen. That is, my long-term view is that both gold and oil prices are going to rise to astonishing heights.</p>
<p>Scarcity rules. That’s the foundation of my investment thesis. Today, I’ll explain my thinking about gold and leave oil for another time.</p>
<p><strong>Reviewing the Gold Landscape</strong></p>
<p>The first thing to understand, as an old geology professor at Harvard once told me, is that “gold is where you find it.” And the second thing to understand is that no matter where you look, gold is hard to find — and getting harder.</p>
<p>In the past decade, gold-related exploration efforts and expenditures have increased dramatically. I’ve seen numbers adding up to tens of billions of dollars poured by mining companies into gold exploration.</p>
<p>But despite the best efforts of the global mining industry, world gold production has DECREASED since early in this decade. Take a look at the chart below, depicting world gold production 1850-2008.</p>
<p><img src="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/files/2009/07/071709whiskey.jpg" alt="" width="510" height="354" /></p>
<p><strong>I Love This Chart</strong></p>
<p>I love this chart. I could spend all day discussing it. For example, look at the very steep rise in gold output during the 1930s. That was during the depths of the worldwide Great Depression. In both the U.S./Canada (blue area), and the rest of the world (gray area), people were digging more and more gold. The Soviets (purple area) increased their gold output too, courtesy of Joseph Stalin and his Gulag. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose. Will that sort of history repeat this time around?</p>
<p><strong>Falling Gold Output, Plus Monetary Inflation</strong></p>
<p>Or look at that massive run-up in gold output from South Africa (green area) in the 1950s and 1960s. That was during a time when South Africa was instituting its post-World War II system of apartheid. Labor was cheap (sorrowfully cheap), and quite a lot of international investment poured into South Africa without moral qualm. The South Africans dug deep and just plain tore into those gold-bearing reef structures of the Witwatersrand Basin.</p>
<p>But notice how quickly the South African gold output declined in the 1970s, as the mines got REALLY deep and the rest of the world began to institute sanctions against South Africa over its apartheid system.</p>
<p>And then look at the gold price run-up that followed in the late 1970s. It was a time of inflation, mainly coming from the U.S. dollar. Yet world gold mine output was dropping as well. Falling output, plus monetary inflation? The gold price skyrocketed. Another bit of useful history, right?</p>
<p><strong>Recent History — the Trend Is Down</strong></p>
<p>Now let’s focus on more recent history, since about 1990. There were large increases in gold output from the U.S./Canada (blue), Australia (gold) and Asia (China orange, non-China open bar). By 2000 or so — the world production peak — gold prices were down toward $300 per ounce and below.</p>
<p>But as the chart shows, in the past 10 years, gold output has shown a marked DECLINE in the major historic gold mining regions. The prolific gold output from the U.S./Canada, Australia and South Africa has followed downward trends. Sure, these regions still lift a lot of ore and pour a lot of melt. But the production trend is DOWN.</p>
<p>Why the downward trend? I suppose you could call it “Peak Gold,” but that term really doesn’t convey the explanation. Let’s highlight some of the reasons for the decline.</p>
<p>In North America, Australia and South Africa, people have been kicking the rocks for 100-150 years. The large deposits and the high-grade good stuff have been discovered. The ore that’s “easy” to mine has been mined. The deeper ore is more expensive to dig, lift and process.</p>
<p>And I have to mention that over time, the culture in so-called “developed” parts of the world has gotten greener. People and policy have turned against mining in the developed world. So mining doesn’t happen where it’s not appreciated.</p>
<p>The flip side is that if mining is declining in the developed world, then the future of gold mining must be growing in the developing world, right? Well, yes and no. Of course, it’s true that there are more rocks to kick and ore bodies to uncover in the underexplored regions of the world. But this leads to another problem.</p>
<p><strong>Development Issues in the Developing World</strong></p>
<p>The U.S./Canada, Australia and South Africa all have well-established and (more or less) workable mining laws — despite the best efforts of many current politicians and regulators to screw it all up. These historically producing areas are politically stable. Overall, there’s good mining infrastructure, with road and rail networks, power systems, refining plants, a vendor base, mining personnel and access to capital.</p>
<p>But that’s not the case in many areas of the developing parts of the world. Political stability? Security? Infrastructure? Transport? Power? Refining? Vendors? Personnel? Capital? Everywhere is different, of course. But overall, the entire process is much more problematic. So there’s a lot more risk. When you move away from the traditional mining jurisdictions, the whole process of exploration, development and mining is more expensive.</p>
<p>Thus, the new gold discoveries of the future are going to lack some (if not most, or perhaps all) of the advantages of the developed mining world. That means that the ore deposits of the future will have to offer much higher profit margins, based on size and ore grade, to compensate for the increased risks. Too bad Mother Nature (or Saint Barbara, who looks after miners) doesn’t work that way.</p>
<p>It also means the timeline to develop the mines of the future will likely be stretched over many years while political, legal, bureaucratic, logistical and social issues are ironed out.</p>
<p><strong>Future Gold Output on a Downward Trend</strong></p>
<p>The key driver for the future of worldwide gold supply will be DECLINING output overall over time. Coupled with monetary inflation, you can expect to see MUCH HIGHER GOLD PRICES.</p>
<p>The gold that does come up will be from more distant locales, and deeper levels, or it will be more costly to process from lower-grade ores. The whole gold mining cycle will get more expensive and more risky.</p>
<p><strong>Big Miners Scrambling</strong></p>
<p>Some of the big gold miners — Newmont, for example — are already in a constant, squirrel cage scramble to replace their reserves lost to annual production. Newmont simply cannot grow organically. Newmont can’t “discover” enough new gold resources on its own every year. It doesn’t even try.</p>
<p>Newmont has a reputation within the mining business that it’s being run by accountants, not mining engineers. So the Newmont strategy is simply to go out and “mine gold on Wall Street,” so to speak. If Newmont needs reserves, the company buys a smaller miner. Indeed, Newmont has laid off most of its formerly world-class exploration department. Its in-house geologists spend much of their time looking at other peoples’ mines.</p>
<p><strong>New Deposits Are Out There</strong></p>
<p>There’s a strong exploration and development incentive built into all of this for smaller firms. The current business climate for gold mining has spurred the creation of many small companies that are generating prospects. The players within the industry are smart, hungry junior exploration companies.</p>
<p>The owners and operators of these companies, and their ilk, are bringing new ideas to the mining districts of the world. And despite the ups and downs of the daily gold price, the best of them will have their day. We just have to pick the sharpest, best-run firms… and be patient as history unfolds.</p>
<p>Source:  <strong><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/looking-at-gold-price-trends/">Looking at Gold Price Trends</a></strong></div>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/looking-at-gold-price-trends/19212/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Oil Crosses $50 Raising Inflation Fears</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-crosses-50-raising-inflation-fears/16415</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-crosses-50-raising-inflation-fears/16415#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2009 17:04:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Notes From the Investment Underground]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bull Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carolin Mines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eagle River]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Bugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Explorers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lincoln Resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=16415</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Another sure sign that inflation is a clear and present danger is the recent rise in oil prices. Wednesday, crude oil set its 2009 high at $54.83 in New York intraday trading. </p>
<p>And as Adam Lass points out in <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title="Taipan Publishing"  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Taipan</a> Daily, “for most of this year, $50/barrel has been one of those psychological ‘lines in the sand,’ much like Dow 8,000 for a while there.”</p>
<p>There can only be two reasons for this, according to Adam:</p>
<p>First of all, there is the obvious: if the global economy recovers even in the slightest, the ensuing increases in manufacturing, shipping and travel will require energy, and despite the best of green intentions, for now energy still means oil.</p>
<p>Second, despite all the rumblings about finding a&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another sure sign that inflation is a clear and present danger is the recent rise in oil prices. Wednesday, crude oil set its 2009 high at $54.83 in New York intraday trading. <span id="more-16415"></span></p>
<p>And as Adam Lass points out in <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title="Taipan Publishing"  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Taipan</a> Daily, “for most of this year, $50/barrel has been one of those psychological ‘lines in the sand,’ much like Dow 8,000 for a while there.”</p>
<p>There can only be two reasons for this, according to Adam:</p>
<p>First of all, there is the obvious: if the global economy recovers even in the slightest, the ensuing increases in manufacturing, shipping and travel will require energy, and despite the best of green intentions, for now energy still means oil.</p>
<p>Second, despite all the rumblings about finding a new world currency, oil is still priced globally in dollars. And while it may be taking Washington an agonizingly long time to actually disburse all the dollars it has promised, it is finally getting around to it.</p>
<p>Eventually, an increase in GDP might soak up enough of those dollars to make a difference. Just as eventually my wife’s dog will grow thumbs and learn to open his own food. Could happen: he’s a pretty smart little guy and all. Still, I am not holding my breath – on either front.</p>
<p>Gold is also likely to benefit from inflation. What many investors – even gold bugs – don&#8217;t realize is that small gold ‘explorers’ always produce the biggest gains in gold bull markets.</p>
<p>But what&#8217;s really interesting is that they typically explode in price after the price of gold has already jumped. In the late 1970s, for example, the price of gold skyrocketed from around $200 in 1979 to over $800 in January 1980. But it wasn&#8217;t until after the price of gold peaked that the best exploration companies saw their biggest gains.</p>
<p>What kind of profits are we talking about? Carolin Mines up 1,739%; Lincoln Resources up 2,464%; Copper Lake Expl. up 13,025%; David Minerals up 1,726%; Eagle River Mines up 3,479%; Silverado Mines up 3,987%; Wharf Resources up 2,779 %</p>
<p>A simple $500 invested in just 11 of these companies would have given you $172,585. $1,000 invested in each would have given you about $350,000.</p>
<p>Mining guru and friend <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Doug Casey</a> has written a special report about today&#8217;s gold exploration companies, Toronto&#8217;s Secret Gold Investment. <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=143&amp;ppref=CTP143EM0409A">You can get the details here.</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-crosses-50-raising-inflation-fears/16415/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>FREE Gold Report</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/free-gold-report/16114</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/free-gold-report/16114#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 18:42:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Notes From the Investment Underground]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bull Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Casey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=16114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In the gold business, there are two kinds of companies, says mining guru <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Doug Casey</a>. First, there are the companies that dig gold out of the ground after it has been discovered. These are the &#8220;producers.&#8221; These companies have done well during the current gold bull market – up as much as 200% during that period.</p>
<p>But what most investors don&#8217;t realize is that it&#8217;s the second type of company, the small gold &#8220;explorers,&#8221; that always produce the biggest gains in gold bull markets.</p>
<p>These are the companies that send geologists around the world, scouring for the next gold discovery. They find a promising deposit and get samples of the rock beneath the surface using drill rigs. If the samples indicate there&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the gold business, there are two kinds of companies, says mining guru <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Doug Casey</a>. First, there are the companies that dig gold out of the ground after it has been discovered. These are the &#8220;producers.&#8221; These companies have done well during the current gold bull market – up as much as 200% during that period.<span id="more-16114"></span></p>
<p>But what most investors don&#8217;t realize is that it&#8217;s the second type of company, the small gold &#8220;explorers,&#8221; that always produce the biggest gains in gold bull markets.</p>
<p>These are the companies that send geologists around the world, scouring for the next gold discovery. They find a promising deposit and get samples of the rock beneath the surface using drill rigs. If the samples indicate there may be enough gold to profitably mine, they either sell the rights or do the work themselves.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s interesting about gold bull markets is that these exploration companies explode in price after the price of gold has already jumped.</p>
<p>In the late 1970s, for example, the price of gold skyrocketed, from around $200 in 1979 to over $800 in January 1980. But it wasn&#8217;t until after the price of gold peaked that the best exploration companies saw their biggest gains.</p>
<p>What kind of profits are we talking about?</p>
<p>• Carolin Mines up 1,739%</p>
<p>• Lincoln Resources up 2,464%</p>
<p>• Copper Lake Expl. up 13,025%</p>
<p>• David Minerals up 1,726%</p>
<p>• Eagle River Mines up 3,479%</p>
<p>• Silverado Mines up 3,987%</p>
<p>• Wharf Resources up 2,779%</p>
<p>A simple $500 invested in just 11 of these companies would have given you $172,585. $1,000 invested in each would have given you about $350,000.</p>
<p>Doug, who was also recently down in Buenos Aires visiting us here at Notes, has written a special report about today&#8217;s gold exploration companies, which he calls Toronto&#8217;s Secret Gold Investment. You can get the details <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=143&amp;ppref=CTP143EM0409A">here</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/free-gold-report/16114/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Buy Gold… Three Reasons Not To Listen to Obama</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-gold%e2%80%a6-three-reasons-not-to-listen-to-obama/14156</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-gold%e2%80%a6-three-reasons-not-to-listen-to-obama/14156#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 16:09:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Karim Rahemtulla</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AUY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karim Rahemtulla]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NEM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Physical Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLW]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=14156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Karim Rahemtulla from the Smart Profits Report says that putting your money in gold mining companies will help you milk your investments, not physical gold. He asks,&#8221;Are you just going to buy gold because everyone else is? Or are you going to really profit from gold like the pros do?&#8221;</p>
<p>This from Karim:</p>
<blockquote><p>President Obama has all-but sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar.</p>
<p>In doing so, however, his policies &#8211; no matter whether they’re forced upon him or deliberate &#8211; have opened the floodgates for gold and gold stocks.</p>
<p>In fact, they’re setting the stage for the biggest rally in gold’s history.</p>
<p>Over the past several months, we’ve told you <strong><a title="Federal Reserve Slashes Interest Rates Again… Why You Should Go For Gold, Commodities, And Financials" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html">why you should buy gold</a></strong> and highlighted one of the best <strong><a title="Gold Is Ready To Run Again… " href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/gold-is-ready-to-%20run-again.html">gold indicators</a></strong> you can use&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karim Rahemtulla from the Smart Profits Report says that putting your money in gold mining companies will help you milk your investments, not physical gold.<span id="more-14156"></span> He asks,&#8221;Are you just going to buy gold because everyone else is? Or are you going to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">really profit</span> from gold like the pros do?&#8221;</p>
<p>This from Karim:</p>
<blockquote><p>President Obama has all-but sealed the fate of the U.S. dollar.</p>
<p>In doing so, however, his policies &#8211; no matter whether they’re forced upon him or deliberate &#8211; have opened the floodgates for gold and gold stocks.</p>
<p>In fact, they’re setting the stage for the biggest rally in gold’s history.</p>
<p>Over the past several months, we’ve told you <strong><a title="Federal Reserve Slashes Interest Rates Again… Why You Should Go For Gold, Commodities, And Financials" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html">why you should buy gold</a></strong> and highlighted one of the best <strong><a title="Gold Is Ready To Run Again… " href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/gold-is-ready-to-%20run-again.html">gold indicators</a></strong> you can use to determine when to buy gold. But today, we’re simply going to show you how to profit from the yellow metal…</p>
<p><strong>Three Reasons Why Gold Is Headed Higher</strong></p>
<p>Okay, so Obama hasn’t specifically said, “Buy physical gold,” but  he’s certainly saying it with his actions instead. Here’s why the metal is headed higher…</p>
<ol type="1">
<li><strong>The Printing Press:</strong> The U.S. government is printing a massive amount of money every day. In fact, we’re up to $2 trillion since last November. But here are the questions we should be asking…</li>
</ol>
<p>~ Where’s this money coming from?<br />
~ What is supporting this huge flow of new money?</p>
<p>America can print money today because the world believes that one day we’ll pay it back. But we haven’t paid down our debt in decades! In fact, over the past 30 years, our debt has increased 10-fold. (We have paid the interest though and that is better than most countries).</p>
<p>However, <span style="text-decoration: underline;">each new dollar we print is like adding a tiny little bit to the price of gold. And we are printing trillions of dollars</span>.</p>
<ol type="1">
<li><strong>The Currency Fear Factor:</strong> Gold is going higher because people are frightened that they won’t allow themselves to fall into the dollar/yen/pound/euro trap again.</li>
</ol>
<p>For example, did you know that gold is at new highs against the Pound and Euro? Because those two currencies have fallen sharply against the dollar, the price of gold in both currencies is much higher than the last time gold was at this level (about this time last year).</p>
<ol type="1">
<li><strong>More Educated Investors:</strong> With the huge amount of upheaval that the economy and stock market has faced over the past year or so, we now have a greater number of educated investors, who can plainly see that gold is the asset to hold. We <strong><a title="Why You Should Go For Gold, Commodities, And Financials" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/archives/2008/federal-reserve-%20interest-rates.html">wondered      out loud</a></strong> why this wasn’t the case back in October, as investors seemed to ignore the dire news coming out each day and gold prices were stagnant. They’re not ignoring it now &#8211; and readers who took our advice to buy gold are doing very well.</li>
</ol>
<p>But because more investors have jumped on the gold bandwagon now is exactly why you should <span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span> be buying gold right now.</p>
<p>That is, of course, unless you’re using a strategy that allows you to make some money or reduce your cost if the shares move down. I’ll give you an example in a minute…</p>
<p><strong>Mind The Gap: Why You Should Set A Buy Alert At The $800 Level</strong></p>
<p>Since mid November 2008, gold prices have pretty much moved up in a straight line.</p>
<p>Be warned: Like any investment, this cannot last forever.</p>
<p>Gold will sell off for a variety of reasons: Because they need money more than jewelry… because China and India are a little bit poorer… because investors sell for technical reasons.</p>
<p>Gold needs to fill a gap on a chart that goes back to the $800 level. And that is when you should buy gold. <span style="text-decoration: underline;">But not physical gold</span>. Let me explain…</p>
<p><strong>When Gold Hits $800 Again, Here Are Four Gold Investments You Should Buy</strong></p>
<p>Rather than buying physical gold &#8211; as many people like to do &#8211; you should instead buy shares in gold mining companies. This includes…</p>
<p>~ <strong>Goldcorp</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=news&amp;q=gg" target="_blank">GG</a>)<br />
~ <strong>Yamana Gold</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=auy" target="_blank">AUY</a>)<br />
~ <strong>Barrick Gold</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=abx" target="_blank">ABX</a>)<br />
~ <strong>Newmont Mining</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=nem" target="_blank">NEM</a>)</p>
<p>You could even buy a silver-based play like <strong>Silver Wheaton</strong> (NYSE: <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.google.com');" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=slw" target="_blank">SLW</a>).</p>
<p>Here’s the thing with physical gold: Unless you’re counting on it to come in handy during something like a government coup where you need to flee the country (in which case, you’d better take a donkey with you, as it will be a heavy load), there are disadvantages to owning physical gold. Ones that result in less money for you.</p>
<p>For example, physical gold is difficult to store. It doesn’t pay dividends. And you can’t apply professional investment strategies like covered call writing to gain additional income.</p>
<p>Most importantly, gold shares move up by a factor of between two times and three times more than the percentage move for gold. So if gold prices move up by 10%, you can expect gold shares to move 20% to 30%, depending on what their cost is.</p>
<p><strong>Everyone Is Buying Gold… But Not Everyone Is A Pro: Here’s The Pro Way To Profit From It</strong></p>
<p>Okay, so once you’ve bought some gold mining shares, how do you start milking the investment for bigger profits than most other investors? I’ll show you…</p>
<p>The bottom line is that not only do you want to capture the price appreciation of your gold shares, you also want to sell call options against your stock to reduce your cost and take money off the table. Here’s how it works…</p>
<p>Let’s say you buy shares of Silver Wheaton for $7. Using a covered call strategy, where you sell one call option for every 100 shares you own, you can get back almost 6% in cash over the next seven months &#8211; and <span style="text-decoration: underline;">still</span> have the chance to more than double your money.</p>
<p>Think of it as a free dividend that no one else knows about.</p>
<p>That’s the kind of stuff we do all the time in my <strong><em><a title="A Better Way to Generate Income" href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/xprprem/strategic-income.html" target="_blank">Strategic Income</a></em></strong> service and every so often in our <strong><em><a title="Xcelerated Profits Report (XPR) " onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.web-purchases.com');" href="https://www.web-purchases.com/APO/EAPOK201/onepageorderform.html?pub=APO&amp;code=EAPOK201&amp;o=%5Bmessageid%5D&amp;u=%5Bmemberid%5D&amp;l=%5Burlid%5D%7D%20-name%20%7BBdW01-APO-EAPOK201%7D" target="_blank">Xcelerated Profits Report (XPR)</a></em></strong> newsletter.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Is Going Higher… Let It Take You Along For The Ride</strong></p>
<p>The bottom line is this: Gold is going to move higher. Ultimately, much higher.</p>
<p>There will be opportunities to buy the metal along the way &#8211; and you’re going to hear a lot of people crowing about those opportunities.</p>
<p>But what they probably won’t tell you is that <span style="text-decoration: underline;">there’s a way of not just buying gold, but buying it through a simple strategy that pays you back and also mitigates some risk</span>.</p>
<p>Understand though, that gold is not going to shoot to the moon tomorrow. That’s why we’ve taken a defensive posture on two of the gold stocks I mentioned above. One is a <strong><a title="Covered Call play on Goldcorp" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.oxfonline.com');" href="http://www.oxfonline.com/APO/APOmel0209.html?pub=APO&amp;code=WAPOK213" target="_blank">covered call play on Goldcorp,</a></strong> and the other is a <strong><a title="Spread Play on Yamana Gold " onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview ('/outbound/www.oxfonline.com');" href="http://www.oxfonline.com/ITR/itr0209gen.html?pub=ITR&amp;code=WITRK203" target="_blank">spread play on Yamana Gold</a></strong> that has allowed us to take 95% of our money off the table, yet still left us with the chance to make over 4,000% on the money we have at risk.</p>
<p>The question is: Are you just going to “buy gold” because everyone else is? Or are you going to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">really profit</span> from gold like the pros do?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/spr/profit-from-gold.html">Source: Obama Says, “Buy Gold”… Three Reasons Not To Listen</a></p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-gold%e2%80%a6-three-reasons-not-to-listen-to-obama/14156/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

<!-- Dynamic Page Served (once) in 0.360 seconds -->

